Spatial distribution of arboviruses and its association with a social development index and the waste disposal in São Luís, state of Maranhão, Brazil, 2015 to 2019.

OBJECTIVE: To detect spatial and spatiotemporal clusters of urban arboviruses and to investigate whether the social development index (SDI) and irregular waste disposal are related to the coefficient of urban arboviruses detection in São Luís, state of Maranhão, Brazil. METHODS: The confirmed cases of Dengue, Zika and Chikungunya in São Luís, from 2015 to 2019, were georeferenced to the census tract of residence. The Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive regression model was used to identify the association between SDI and irregular waste disposal sites and the coefficient of urban arboviruses detection. RESULTS: The spatial pattern of arboviruses pointed to the predominance of a low-incidence cluster, except 2016. For the years 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2019, an increase of one unit of waste disposal site increased the coefficient of arboviruses detection in 1.25, 1.09, 1.23, and 1.13 cases of arboviruses per 100 thousand inhabitants, respectively. The SDI was not associated with the coefficient of arboviruses detection. CONCLUSION: In São Luís, spatiotemporal risk clusters for the occurrence of arboviruses and a positive association between the coefficient of arbovirus detection and sites of irregular waste disposal were identified.

Comprehensive analysis of early T cell responses to acute Zika Virus infection during the first epidemic in Bahia, Brazil.

BACKGROUND: In most cases, Zika virus (ZIKV) causes a self-limited acute illness in adults, characterized by mild clinical symptoms that resolve within a few days. Immune responses, both innate and adaptive, play a central role in controlling and eliminating virus-infected cells during the early stages of infection. AIM: To test the hypothesis that circulating T cells exhibit phenotypic and functional activation characteristics during the viremic phase of ZIKV infection. METHODS: A comprehensive analysis using mass cytometry was performed on peripheral blood mononuclear cells obtained from patients with acute ZIKV infection (as confirmed by RT-PCR) and compared with that from healthy donors (HD). The frequency of IFN-γ-producing T cells in response to peptide pools covering immunogenic regions of structural and nonstructural ZIKV proteins was quantified using an ELISpot assay. RESULTS: Circulating CD4+ and CD8+ T lymphocytes from ZIKV-infected patients expressed higher levels of IFN-γ and pSTAT-5, as well as cell surface markers associated with proliferation (Ki-67), activation ((HLA-DR, CD38) or exhaustion (PD1 and CTLA-4), compared to those from HD. Activation of CD4+ and CD8+ memory T cell subsets, including Transitional Memory T Cells (TTM), Effector Memory T cells (TEM), and Effector Memory T cells Re-expressing CD45RA (TEMRA), was prominent among CD4+ T cell subset of ZIKV-infected patients and was associated with increased levels of IFN-γ, pSTAT-5, Ki-67, CTLA-4, and PD1, as compared to HD. Additionally, approximately 30% of ZIKV-infected patients exhibited a T cell response primarily directed against the ZIKV NS5 protein. CONCLUSION: Circulating T lymphocytes spontaneously produce IFN-γ and express elevated levels of pSTAT-5 during the early phase of ZIKV infection whereas recognition of ZIKV antigen results in the generation of virus-specific IFN-γ-producing T cells.

Dengue Virus and Zika Virus Seroprevalence in the South Pacific Populations of the Cook Islands and Vanuatu.

Arboviral diseases are serious threats to global health with increasing prevalence and potentially severe complications. Significant arthropod-borne viruses are the dengue viruses (DENV 1-4), the Zika virus (ZIKV), and the chikungunya virus (CHIKV). Among the areas most affected is the South Pacific Region (SPR). Here, arboviruses not only cause a high local burden of disease, but the region has also proven to contribute to their global spread. Outpatient serum samples collected between 08/2016 and 04/2017 on three islands of the island states of Vanuatu and the Cook Islands were tested for anti-DENV- and anti-ZIKV-specific antibodies (IgG) using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA). ELISA test results showed 89% of all test sera from the Cook Islands and 85% of the Vanuatu samples to be positive for anti-DENV-specific antibodies. Anti-ZIKV antibodies were identified in 66% and 52%, respectively, of the test populations. Statistically significant differences in standardized immunity levels were found only at the intranational level. Our results show that in both the Cook Islands and Vanuatu, residents were exposed to significant Flavivirus transmission. Compared to other seroprevalence studies, the marked difference between ZIKV immunity levels and previously published CHIKV seroprevalence rates in our study populations is surprising. We propose the timing of ZIKV and CHIKV emergence in relation to recurrent DENV outbreaks and the impact of seasonality as explanatory external factors for this observation. Our data add to the knowledge of arboviral epidemics in the SPR and contribute to a better understanding of virus spread, including external conditions with potential influence on outbreak dynamics. These data may support preventive and rapid response measures in the affected areas, travel-related risk assessment, and infection identification in locals and returning travelers.

Characteristics, risk factors, and outcomes related to Zika virus infection during pregnancy in Northeastern Thailand: A prospective pregnancy cohort study, 2018-2020.

BACKGROUND: In response to the 2015-2016 Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak and the causal relationship established between maternal ZIKV infection and adverse infant outcomes, we conducted a cohort study to estimate the incidence of ZIKV infection in pregnancy and assess its impacts in women and infants. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: From May 2018-January 2020, we prospectively followed pregnant women recruited from 134 participating hospitals in two non-adjacent provinces in northeastern Thailand. We collected demographic, clinical, and epidemiologic data and blood and urine at routine antenatal care visits until delivery. ZIKV infections were confirmed by real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR). Specimens with confirmed ZIKV underwent whole genome sequencing. Among 3,312 women enrolled, 12 (0.36%) had ZIKV infections, of which two (17%) were detected at enrollment. Ten (83%, 3 in 2nd and 7 in 3rd trimester) ZIKV infections were detected during study follow-up, resulting in an infection rate of 0.15 per 1,000 person-weeks (95% CI: 0.07-0.28). The majority (11/12, 91.7%) of infections occurred in one province. Persistent ZIKV viremia (42 days) was found in only one woman. Six women with confirmed ZIKV infections were asymptomatic until delivery. Sequencing of 8 ZIKV isolates revealed all were of Asian lineage. All 12 ZIKV infected women gave birth to live, full-term infants; the only observed adverse birth outcome was low birth weight in one (8%) infant. Pregnancies in 3,300 ZIKV-rRT-PCR-negative women were complicated by 101 (3%) fetal deaths, of which 67 (66%) had miscarriages and 34 (34%) had stillbirths. There were no differences between adverse fetal or birth outcomes of live infants born to ZIKV-rRT-PCR-positive mothers compared to live infants born to ZIKV-rRT-PCR-negative mothers. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Confirmed ZIKV infections occurred infrequently in this large pregnancy cohort and observed adverse maternal and birth outcomes did not differ between mothers with and without confirmed infections.

Zika emergence, persistence, and transmission rate in Colombia: a nationwide application of a space-time Markov switching model.

Zika, a viral disease transmitted to humans by Aedes mosquitoes, emerged in the Americas in 2015, causing large-scale epidemics. Colombia alone reported over 72,000 Zika cases between 2015 and 2016. Using national surveillance data from 1121 municipalities over 70 weeks, we identified sociodemographic and environmental factors associated with Zika's emergence, re-emergence, persistence, and transmission intensity in Colombia. We fitted a zero-state Markov-switching model under the Bayesian framework, assuming Zika switched between periods of presence and absence according to spatially and temporally varying probabilities of emergence/re-emergence (from absence to presence) and persistence (from presence to presence). These probabilities were assumed to follow a series of mixed multiple logistic regressions. When Zika was present, assuming that the cases follow a negative binomial distribution, we estimated the transmission intensity rate. Our results indicate that Zika emerged/re-emerged sooner and that transmission was intensified in municipalities that were more densely populated, at lower altitudes and/or with less vegetation cover. Warmer temperatures and less weekly-accumulated rain were also associated with Zika emergence. Zika cases persisted for longer in more densely populated areas with more cases reported in the previous week. Overall, population density, elevation, and temperature were identified as the main contributors to the first Zika epidemic in Colombia. We also estimated the probability of Zika presence by municipality and week, and the results suggest that the disease circulated undetected by the surveillance system on many occasions. Our results offer insights into priority areas for public health interventions against emerging and re-emerging Aedes-borne diseases.

Feeding characteristics and growth among children with prenatal exposure to Zika virus with and without microcephaly in the microcephaly epidemic research group pediatric cohort.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the feeding characteristics and growth of children with prenatal exposure to Zika virus (ZIKV) from birth to 48 months. DESIGN: Using data from the prospective Microcephaly Epidemic Research Group Pediatric Cohort (MERG-PC), children without microcephaly born to mothers with evidence of ZIKV infection during pregnancy (ZIKV-exposed children without microcephaly) and children with Zika-related microcephaly were compared using repeated cross-sectional analyses within the following age strata: birth; 1 to 12; 13 to 24; 25 to 36; and 37 to 48 months. The groups were compared in relation to prematurity, birth weight, breastfeeding, alternative feeding routes, dysphagia and anthropometric profiles based on the World Health Organization Anthro z-scores (weight-length/height, weight-age, length/height-age and BMI-age). RESULTS: The first assessment included 248 children, 77 (31.05%) with microcephaly and 171 (68.95%) without microcephaly. The final assessment was performed on 86 children. Prematurity was 2.35 times higher and low birth weight was 3.49 times higher in children with microcephaly. The frequency of breastfeeding was high (> 80%) in both groups. On discharge from the maternity hospital, the frequency of children requiring alternative feeding route in both groups was less than 5%. After 12 months of age, children with microcephaly required alternative feeding route more often than children without microcephaly. In children with microcephaly, the z-score of all growth indicators was lower than in children without microcephaly. CONCLUSIONS: Children with Zika-related microcephaly were more frequently premature and low birth weight and remained with nutritional parameters, i.e., weight-for-age, weight-for-length/height and length/height-for-age below those of the children without microcephaly.

Single proxy control.

Negative control variables are sometimes used in nonexperimental studies to detect the presence of confounding by hidden factors. A negative control outcome (NCO) is an outcome that is influenced by unobserved confounders of the exposure effects on the outcome in view, but is not causally impacted by the exposure. Tchetgen Tchetgen (2013) introduced the Control Outcome Calibration Approach (COCA) as a formal NCO counterfactual method to detect and correct for residual confounding bias. For identification, COCA treats the NCO as an error-prone proxy of the treatment-free counterfactual outcome of interest, and involves regressing the NCO on the treatment-free counterfactual, together with a rank-preserving structural model, which assumes a constant individual-level causal effect. In this work, we establish nonparametric COCA identification for the average causal effect for the treated, without requiring rank-preservation, therefore accommodating unrestricted effect heterogeneity across units. This nonparametric identification result has important practical implications, as it provides single-proxy confounding control, in contrast to recently proposed proximal causal inference, which relies for identification on a pair of confounding proxies. For COCA estimation we propose 3 separate strategies: (i) an extended propensity score approach, (ii) an outcome bridge function approach, and (iii) a doubly-robust approach. Finally, we illustrate the proposed methods in an application evaluating the causal impact of a Zika virus outbreak on birth rate in Brazil.

Global seroprevalence of Zika virus in asymptomatic individuals: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Zika virus (ZIKV) has spread to five of the six World Health Organization (WHO) regions. Given the substantial number of asymptomatic infections and clinical presentations resembling those of other arboviruses, estimating the true burden of ZIKV infections is both challenging and essential. Therefore, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of seroprevalence studies of ZIKV IgG in asymptomatic population to estimate its global impact and distribution. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We conducted extensive searches and compiled a collection of articles published from Jan/01/2000, to Jul/31/2023, from Embase, Pubmed, SciELO, and Scopus databases. The random effects model was used to pool prevalences, reported with their 95% confidence interval (CI), a tool to assess the risk of study bias in prevalence studies, and the I2 method for heterogeneity (PROSPERO registration No. CRD42023442227). Eighty-four studies from 49 countries/territories, with a diversity of study designs and serological tests were included. The global seroprevalence of ZIKV was 21.0% (95%CI 16.1%-26.4%). Evidence of IgG antibodies was identified in all WHO regions, except for Europe. Seroprevalence correlated with the epidemics in the Americas (39.9%, 95%CI:30.0-49.9), and in some Western Pacific countries (15.6%, 95%CI:8.2-24.9), as well as with recent and past circulation in Southeast Asia (22.8%, 95%CI:16.5-29.7), particularly in Thailand. Additionally, sustained low circulation was observed in Africa (8.4%, 95%CI:4.8-12.9), except for Gabon (43.7%), and Burkina Faso (22.8%). Although no autochthonous transmission was identified in the Eastern Mediterranean, a seroprevalence of 16.0% was recorded. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The study highlights the high heterogeneity and gaps in the distribution of seroprevalence. The implementation of standardized protocols and the development of tests with high specificity are essential for ensuring a valid comparison between studies. Equally crucial are vector surveillance and control methods to reduce the risk of emerging and re-emerging ZIKV outbreaks, whether caused by Ae. aegypti or Ae. albopictus or by the Asian or African ZIKV.

The first confirmed outbreak of chikungunya reported in Timor-Leste, 2024.

Abstract: Timor-Leste is a mountainous, half-island nation with a population of 1.3 million, which shares a land border with Indonesia and is 550 km from Darwin, Australia. Since independence in 2002, Timor-Leste has achieved significant development; however, high levels of poverty remain. Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is endemic in over 100 countries in Africa, Asia, Europe and in the Americas. It is transmitted by the bite of infected Aedes aegypti or Ae. albopictus mosquitoes, which are present in Timor-Leste and which contribute to annual rainy-season dengue virus (DENV) outbreaks. Symptomatic people typically suffer from acute onset of fever, usually accompanied by severe arthritis or arthralgia. Joint pain can be debilitating for several days, and may sometimes last for weeks, months or years. Unlike DENV infection which has significant mortality, most people recover completely. Between 2002 and 2023, there were 26 cases of CHIKV notified in Australia who acquired their infection in Timor-Leste; however, laboratory testing capability for CHIKV in Timor-Leste only became available in 2021 using polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The first locally diagnosed case was notified in November 2023. In January 2024, an outbreak of CHIKV was recognised in Timor-Leste for the first time, with 195 outbreak cases reported during 1-31 January 2024; all were PCR positive. There were no cases hospitalised, and no deaths. The median age of cases was 17 years (range 1-76 years); 51% were males. Cases were reported across the country; most (88/195) were from Dili, although the highest incidence was seen in the neighbouring municipality of Ermera (monthly incidence rate of 58.8 cases per 100,000 population). This first reported outbreak of CHIKV in Timor-Leste highlights the need for improved mosquito-borne illness control and response strategies, including minimising breeding sites and promoting early presentation for treatment and differential diagnosis from DENV, and consideration of the deployment of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes, particularly as they have shown to reduce the transmission of CHIKV, DENV and Zika virus, all of which pose threats in Timor-Leste.

Temporal variations in international air travel: implications for modelling the spread of infectious diseases.

BACKGROUND: The international flight network creates multiple routes by which pathogens can quickly spread across the globe. In the early stages of infectious disease outbreaks, analyses using flight passenger data to identify countries at risk of importing the pathogen are common and can help inform disease control efforts. A challenge faced in this modelling is that the latest aviation statistics (referred to as contemporary data) are typically not immediately available. Therefore, flight patterns from a previous year are often used (referred to as historical data). We explored the suitability of historical data for predicting the spatial spread of emerging epidemics. METHODS: We analysed monthly flight passenger data from the International Air Transport Association to assess how baseline air travel patterns were affected by outbreaks of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), Zika and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) over the past decade. We then used a stochastic discrete time susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) metapopulation model to simulate the global spread of different pathogens, comparing how epidemic dynamics differed in simulations based on historical and contemporary data. RESULTS: We observed local, short-term disruptions to air travel from South Korea and Brazil for the MERS and Zika outbreaks we studied, whereas global and longer-term flight disruptions occurred during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. For outbreak events that were accompanied by local, small and short-term changes in air travel, epidemic models using historical flight data gave similar projections of the timing and locations of disease spread as when using contemporary flight data. However, historical data were less reliable to model the spread of an atypical outbreak such as SARS-CoV-2, in which there were durable and extensive levels of global travel disruption. CONCLUSION: The use of historical flight data as a proxy in epidemic models is an acceptable practice, except in rare, large epidemics that lead to substantial disruptions to international travel.

Prevalence of arboviruses in sickle cell disease patients from two different regions of Brazil, the North and Northeast.

Sickle Cell Disease (SCD) is a hereditary disease characterized by extravascular and intravascular hemolysis and clinical variability, from mild pain to potentially life-threatening. Arboviruses include mainly Zika (ZIKV), Chikungunya (CHKV), and Dengue (DENV) virus, and are considered a public and social health problem. The present cross-sectional observational study aimed to investigate the prevalence of arbovirus infection in SCD patients from two Brazilian cities, Salvador and Manaus located in Bahia and Amazonas states respectively. A total of 409 individuals with SCD were included in the study, and 307 (75.06 %) patients tested positive for DENV-IgG, 161 (39.36 %) for ZIKV-IgG, and 60 (14.67 %) for CHIKV-IgG. Only one individual was positive for DENV-NS1 and another for DENV-IgM, both from Salvador. No individuals had positive serology for ZIKV-IgM or CHIKV-IgM. Arbovirus positivity by IgG testing revealed that the SCD group presented high frequencies in both cities. Interestingly, these differences were only statistically significant for ZIKV-IgG (p = 0.023) and CHIKV-IgG (p = 0.005) among SCD patients from Manaus. The reshaping of arbovirus from its natural habitat by humans due to disorderly urban expansion and the ease of international Mobility has been responsible for facilitating the spread of vector-borne infectious diseases in humans. We found the need for further studies on arboviruses in this population to elucidate the real association and impact, especially in acute infection. We hope that this study will contribute to improvements in the personalized clinical follow-up of SCD patients, identifying the influence of arbovirus infection in severe disease manifestations.

Perceptions of the Zika Virus, Contraceptive Access, and Motivation to Participate in the Zika Contraception Access Network Program: Qualitative Analysis of Focusgroup Discussions with Puerto Rican Women.

OBJECTIVE: During the 2016-2017 Zika virus outbreak in Puerto Rico, the Zika Contraception Access Network (Z-CAN) provided client-centered contraceptive counseling and access to the full range of reversible contraceptive methods at no cost to prevent unintended pregnancies and thereby to reduce Zika-related birth outcomes. METHODS: To understand how Puerto Rican women's perceptions of the Zika virus affected contraceptive decisions and assess how they heard about the Z-CAN program and what influenced their participation, or lack thereof, 24 focus-group discussions were conducted among women of reproductive age who did and did not participate in Z-CAN. RESULTS: Women who participated in the discussions often had heard about Z-CAN from their physician or friends; non-participants had heard about Z-CAN from Facebook or friends. Women expressed satisfaction on finding a Z-CAN clinic and valued the same-day provision of contraceptives. When a preferred contraceptive method or a first appointment was not readily available, women reconsidered accessing the program. Women's perceptions and trust of reproductive healthcare providers, their engagement in social networks, and their ability to choose a contraceptive method that best meets their needs can influence participation in contraception-access programs. CONCLUSION: Focus groups can be used to understand women's knowledge of the Zika virus, barriers and facilitators to contraception access, and motivations for participation in the Z-CAN program.

Ophthalmologic Findings in a Premature Infant leading to a Zika Diagnosis during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Report.

We report on the first case of congenital Zika syndrome to be identified during the COVID-19 pandemic in Puerto Rico. The Zika virus (ZIKV) infection was first seen in Puerto Rico in December 2015. It is a flavivirus with vertical transmission, spreading from infected mothers to their fetuses and having a broad spectrum of clinical manifestations, of which microcephaly is the most worrisome. In Puerto Rico, routine ZIKV screening during pregnancy was implemented in October 2016. However, this practice has become less frequent over time. Nevertheless, the transmission of ZIKV continues, so it is important to ensure routine ZIKV screening in endemic regions, such as Puerto Rico.

The impact of ZIKV infection on gene expression in neural cells over time.

Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak caused one of the most significant medical emergencies in the Americas due to associated microcephaly in newborns. To evaluate the impact of ZIKV infection on neuronal cells over time, we retrieved gene expression data from several ZIKV-infected samples obtained at different time point post-infection (pi). Differential gene expression analysis was applied at each time point, with more differentially expressed genes (DEG) identified at 72h pi. There were 5 DEGs (PLA2G2F, TMEM71, PKD1L2, UBD, and TNFAIP3 genes) across all timepoints, which clearly distinguished between infected and healthy samples. The highest expression levels of all five genes were identified at 72h pi. Taken together, our results indicate that ZIKV infection greatly impacts human neural cells at early times of infection, with peak perturbation observed at 72h pi. Our analysis revealed that all five DEGs, in samples of ZIKV-infected human neural stem cells, remained highly upregulated across the timepoints evaluated. Moreover, despite the pronounced inflammatory host response observed throughout infection, the impact of ZIKV is variable over time. Finally, the five DEGs identified herein play prominent roles in infection, and could serve to guide future investigations into virus-host interaction, as well as constitute targets for therapeutic drug development.

Optimising the surveillance of Aedes aegypti in Brazil by selecting smaller representative areas within an endemic city.

OBJECTIVES: Arboviruses, such as dengue (DENV), zika (ZIKV), and chikungunya (CHIKV), constitute a growing urban public health threat. Focusing on Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, their primary vectors, is crucial for mitigation. While traditional immature-stage mosquito surveillance has limitations, capturing adult mosquitoes through traps yields more accurate data on disease transmission. However, deploying traps presents logistical and financial challenges, demonstrating effective temporal predictions but lacking spatial accuracy. Our goal is to identify smaller representative areas within cities to enhance the early warning system for DENV outbreaks. METHODS: We created Sentinel Geographic Units (SGUs), smaller areas of 1 km2 within each stratum, larger areas, with the aim of aligning the Trap Positivity Index (TPI) and Adult Density Index (ADI) with their respective strata. We conducted a two-step evaluation of SGUs. First, we examined the equivalence of TPI and ADI between SGUs and strata from January 2017 to July 2022. Second, we assessed the ability of SGU's TPI and ADI to predict DENV outbreaks in comparison to Foz do Iguaçu's Early-Warning System, which forecasts outbreaks up to 4 weeks ahead. Spatial and temporal analyses were carried out, including data interpolation and model selection based on Akaike information criteria (AIC). RESULTS: Entomological indicators produced in small SGUs can effectively replace larger sentinel areas to access dengue outbreaks. Based on historical data, the best predictive capability is achieved 2 weeks after infestation verification. Implementing the SGU strategy with more frequent sampling can provide more precise space-time estimates and enhance dengue control. CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of SGUs offers an efficient way to monitor mosquito populations, reducing the need for extensive resources. This approach has the potential to improve dengue transmission management and enhance the public health response in endemic cities.

The effect of demographic stochasticity on Zika virus transmission dynamics: Probability of disease extinction, sensitivity analysis, and mean first passage time.

Viral infections spread by mosquitoes are a growing threat to human health and welfare. Zika virus (ZIKV) is one of them and has become a global worry, particularly for women who are pregnant. To study ZIKV dynamics in the presence of demographic stochasticity, we consider an established ZIKV transmission model that takes into consideration the disease transmission from human to mosquito, mosquito to human, and human to human. In this study, we look at the local stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibriums. By conducting the sensitivity analysis both locally and globally, we assess the effect of the model parameters on the model outcomes. In this work, we use the continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) process to develop and analyze a stochastic model. The main distinction between deterministic and stochastic models is that, in the absence of any preventive measures such as avoiding travel to infected areas, being careful from mosquito bites, taking precautions to reduce the risk of sexual transmission, and seeking medical care for any acute illness with a rash or fever, the stochastic model shows the possibility of disease extinction in a finite amount of time, unlike the deterministic model shows disease persistence. We found that the numerically estimated disease extinction probability agrees well with the analytical probability obtained from the Galton-Watson branching process approximation. We have discovered that the disease extinction probability is high if the disease emerges from infected mosquitoes rather than infected humans. In the context of the stochastic model, we derive the implicit equation of the mean first passage time, which computes the average amount of time needed for a system to undergo its first state transition.

Population-based surveillance for birth defects potentially related to Zika virus infection including 3-year mortality and developmental outcomes, and Early Intervention Program service use-New York City, 2016 birth cohort.

BACKGROUND: In response to the 2015-2017 Zika virus outbreak, New York City (NYC) identified and monitored infants with birth defects potentially related to congenital Zika virus. METHODS: Administrative data matches were used to describe the birth characteristics of children born in 2016 meeting screening criteria for birth defects potentially related to congenital Zika virus infection relative to other NYC births and to monitor mortality and Early Intervention Program use through age 2. RESULTS: Among 120,367 children born in NYC in 2016, 463 met screening criteria and 155 met the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's case definition for birth defects potentially related to congenital Zika virus infection (1.3 per 1000; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-1.5). Post-neonatal deaths occurred among 7.7% of cases (12) and 5.2% of non-cases (8). Odds of referral to the Early intervention Program among children who met screening criteria were lower among children of mothers who were married (OR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.37-0.97) and among children not classified as cases whose mothers were born in Latin America and the Caribbean (OR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.37-1.09). DISCUSSION: Prevalence of birth defects potentially related to congenital Zika virus infection was similar to that seen in other jurisdictions without local transmission. Birth defects attributable to congenital Zika virus infection may also have been present among screened children who did not meet the case definition.

Historical Hot Spots of Dengue and Zika Viruses to Guide Targeted Vector Control in San Juan, Puerto Rico (2010-2022).

Dengue viruses (DENV) continue to cause large outbreaks in tropical countries, while chikungunya and Zika (ZIKV) viruses have added complexity to Aedes-borne disease prevention and control efforts. Because these viruses are transmitted by the same vectors in urban areas, it is useful to understand if sequential outbreaks caused by these viruses have commonalities, such as similar seasonal and spatial patterns, that would help anticipate and perhaps prevent future outbreaks. We explored and analyzed the heterogeneity of confirmed cases of DENV (2010-2014 and 2015-2022) and ZIKV (2016-2017) during outbreaks in the San Juan metropolitan area of Puerto Rico to explore their degree of overlap and prioritize areas for Aedes aegypti control. Deidentified, georeferenced case data were aggregated into grid cells (500 × 500 m) within a geographical information system of the study area and analyzed to calculate the degree of overlap between outbreaks. Spatial autocorrelations using local indicators of spatial associations were conducted to identify significant disease case hot spots and correlations between outbreaks. We found that 75% of cases during the three transmission periods were concentrated in 25% of the total number of grid cells covering the study area. We also found significant clustering of cases during each outbreak, enabling identification of consistent disease hot spots. Our results showed 85% spatial overlap between cases of ZIKV in 2015-2017 and DENV in 2010-2014 and 97% overlap between DENV cases in 2010-2014 and 2015-2022. These results reveal urban areas at greater risk of future arbovirus outbreaks that should be prioritized for vector control.

Case report: Zika surveillance complemented with wastewater and mosquito testing.

BACKGROUND: In June 2023, a local cluster of 15 Zika cases was reported in a neighbourhood in Northeastern Singapore. The last significant local transmission of Zika virus (ZIKV) with more than 450 cases was in 2016-2017. To monitor the situation and mitigate further transmission, case, entomological and wastewater-based surveillance were carried out. METHODS: Primary healthcare practitioners and the community were alerted to encourage timely case identification. Surveillance was enhanced through testing of Aedes mosquitoes collected from the National Gravitrap surveillance system, and wastewater samples were collected from a network of autosamplers deployed at manholes across the country. FINDINGS: ZIKV RNA was detected in mosquito pools (3/43; 7%) and individual mosquitoes (3/82; 3.7%) captured, and in wastewater samples (13/503) collected from the vicinity of the cluster of cases. Respective samples collected from other sites across the country were negative. The peak detection of ZIKV RNA in mosquitoes and wastewater coincided temporally with the peak in the number of cases in the area (15-25 May 2023). INTERPRETATION: The restriction of ZIKV signals from wastewater and mosquitoes within the neighbourhood suggested limited ZIKV transmission. The subsequent waning of signals suggested effectiveness of control measures. We demonstrate the utility of wastewater-based surveillance of ZIKV, which complements existing case- and entomological-based surveillance. The non-intrusive approach is particularly useful to monitor diseases such as Zika, which generally causes silent or mild infections, but may cause severe outcomes such as congenital Zika syndrome. FUNDING: This study was funded by Singapore's Ministry of Finance and the National Environment Agency, Singapore.