Evaluation of the Factors Affecting the Mortality Rate in Poultry Transport via Panel Data Analysis

In this study, we evaluated some of the factors that affect mortality rate during transport from broiler poultry houses to slaughterhouses by conducting panel data analysis. We analyzed the data obtained from 26,599 broiler farms transported to the slaughterhouse from contracted broiler farms in 11 provinces in Turkey. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests were performed to evaluate whether the series forming the dataset were stationary. To analyze individual effects, parameters were estimated using fixed and random effects models. To decide which of the two models was valid, the Hausman test and fixed effects panel data analysis were performed. The fixed effects model explained 90.93% of the changes in the mortality rate through the independent variables. In the non-periodical fixed-effect panel data analysis, the mortality rate shows a significant (p<0.01) effect between the number of animals alive, number of animals dead, mean and total live weight at poultry farm exit, mean live weight at slaughterhouse arrival, and different variables. Our results showed that the estimation equations developed using model parameters to determine the mortality rate during transportation from different provinces could contribute to effective production planning.(AU)

Analyzing the Factors Affecting the Price of Broiler Chicken in Turkey Using the Boosting Regression Method

Investigating the factors that affect broiler chicken prices in Turkey is vital for understanding market formation. The parameters and factors likely to influence the price of broiler chicken were analyzed for the period between 2010-2020 in Turkey. The study adopted the boosting regression model to predict the correlation between broiler chicken consumer price and variable factors like broiler feed, corn, soybean meal, wheat prices, the dollar exchange rate, producer price index (PPI), and agricultural PPI. The accuracy of the estimation of the regression model created according to the results of the analysis was calculated as 86%. The producer price index variable caused the highest relative impact (25.63%) on broiler chicken meat prices. The highest positive correlation was obtained between the producer price index and the agricultural PPI (r = 0.984). Thus, it was determined that chicken prices were affected by feed raw material prices and the general economic conditions in Turkey. In addition to improving the prevailing economic conditions, an effective price control mechanism is required to prevent excessive price fluctuations in the sector. Simultaneously, it is essential to create policies to reduce input costs.(AU)