Phenotypic distribution models corroborate species distribution models: A shift in the role and prevalence of a dominant prairie grass in response to climate change.

Phenotypic distribution within species can vary widely across environmental gradients but forecasts of species' responses to environmental change often assume species respond homogenously across their ranges. We compared predictions from species and phenotype distribution models under future climate scenarios for Andropogon gerardii, a widely distributed, dominant grass found throughout the central United States. Phenotype data on aboveground biomass, height, leaf width, and chlorophyll content were obtained from 33 populations spanning a ~1000 km gradient that encompassed the majority of the species' environmental range. Species and phenotype distribution models were trained using current climate conditions and projected to future climate scenarios. We used permutation procedures to infer the most important variable for each model. The species-level response to climate was most sensitive to maximum temperature of the hottest month, but phenotypic variables were most sensitive to mean annual precipitation. The phenotype distribution models predict that A. gerardii could be largely functionally eliminated from where this species currently dominates, with biomass and height declining by up to ~60% and leaf width by ~20%. By the 2070s, the core area of highest suitability for A. gerardii is projected to shift up to ~700 km northeastward. Further, short-statured phenotypes found in the present-day short grass prairies on the western periphery of the species' range will become favored in the current core ~800 km eastward of their current location. Combined, species and phenotype models predict this currently dominant prairie grass will decline in prevalence and stature. Thus, sourcing plant material for grassland restoration and forage should consider changes in the phenotype that will be favored under future climate conditions. Phenotype distribution models account for the role of intraspecific variation in determining responses to anticipated climate change and thereby complement predictions from species distributions models in guiding climate adaptation strategies.

Epigenetics of drought-induced trans-generational plasticity: consequences for range limit development.

Genetic variation gives plants the potential to adapt to stressful environments that often exist beyond their geographic range limits. However, various genetic, physiological or developmental constraints might prevent the process of adaptation. Alternatively, environmentally induced epigenetic changes might sustain populations for several generations in stressful areas across range boundaries, but previous work on Boechera stricta, an upland mustard closely related to Arabidopsis, documented a drought-induced trans-generational plastic trade-off that could contribute to range limit development. Offspring of parents who were drought treated had higher drought tolerance, but lower levels of glucosinolate toxins. Both drought tolerance and defence are thought to be needed to expand the range to lower elevations. Here, we used methylation-sensitive amplified fragment length polymorphisms to determine whether environmentally induced DNA methylation and thus epigenetics could be a mechanism involved in the observed trans-generational plastic trade-off. We compared 110 offspring from the same self-fertilizing lineages whose parents were exposed to experimental drought stress treatments in the laboratory. Using three primer combinations, 643 polymorphic epi-loci were detected. Discriminant function analysis (DFA) on the amount of methylation detected resulted in significant combinations of epi-loci that distinguished the parent drought treatments in the offspring. Principal component (PC) and univariate association analyses also detected the significant differences, even after controlling for lineage, planting flat, developmental differences and multiple testing. Univariate tests also indicated significant associations between the amount of methylation and drought tolerance or glucosinolate toxin concentration. One epi-locus that was implicated in DFA, PC and univariate association analysis may be directly involved in the trade-off because increased methylation at this site on the genome decreased drought tolerance, but increased glucosinolate concentration.

Drought-induced trans-generational tradeoff between stress tolerance and defence: consequences for range limits?

Areas just across species range boundaries are often stressful, but even with ample genetic variation within and among range-margin populations, adaptation towards stress tolerance across range boundaries often does not occur. Adaptive trans-generational plasticity should allow organisms to circumvent these problems for temporary range expansion; however, range boundaries often persist. To investigate this dilemma, we drought stressed a parent generation of Boechera stricta (A.Gray) A. Löve & D. Löve, a perennial wild relative of Arabidopsis, representing genetic variation within and among several low-elevation range margin populations. Boechera stricta is restricted to higher, moister elevations in temperate regions where generalist herbivores are often less common. Previous reports indicate a negative genetic correlation (genetic tradeoff) between chemical defence allocation and abiotic stress tolerance that may prevent the simultaneous evolution of defence and drought tolerance that would be needed for range expansion. In growth chamber experiments, the genetic tradeoff became undetectable among offspring sib-families whose parents had been drought treated, suggesting that the stress-induced trans-generational plasticity may circumvent the genetic tradeoff and thus enable range expansion. However, the trans-generational effects also included a conflict between plastic responses (environmental tradeoff); offspring whose parents were drought treated were more drought tolerant, but had lower levels of glucosinolate toxins that function in defence against generalist herbivores. We suggest that either the genetic or environmental tradeoff between defence allocation and stress tolerance has the potential to contribute to range limit development in upland mustards.