Predicting biomass of rice with intermediate traits: Modeling method combining crop growth models and genomic prediction models.

Genomic prediction (GP) is expected to become a powerful technology for accelerating the genetic improvement of complex crop traits. Several GP models have been proposed to enhance their applications in plant breeding, including environmental effects and genotype-by-environment interactions (G×E). In this study, we proposed a two-step model for plant biomass prediction wherein environmental information and growth-related traits were considered. First, the growth-related traits were predicted by GP. Second, the biomass was predicted from the GP-predicted values and environmental data using machine learning or crop growth modeling. We applied the model to a 2-year-old field trial dataset of recombinant inbred lines of japonica rice and evaluated the prediction accuracy with training and testing data by cross-validation performed over two years. Therefore, the proposed model achieved an equivalent or a higher correlation between the observed and predicted values (0.53 and 0.65 for each year, respectively) than the model in which biomass was directly predicted by GP (0.40 and 0.65 for each year, respectively). This result indicated that including growth-related traits enhanced accuracy of biomass prediction. Our findings are expected to contribute to the spread of the use of GP in crop breeding by enabling more precise prediction of environmental effects on crop traits.

Predicting Rice Heading Date Using an Integrated Approach Combining a Machine Learning Method and a Crop Growth Model.

Accurate prediction of heading date under various environmental conditions is expected to facilitate the decision-making process in cultivation management and the breeding process of new cultivars adaptable to the environment. Days to heading (DTH) is a complex trait known to be controlled by multiple genes and genotype-by-environment interactions. Crop growth models (CGMs) have been widely used to predict the phenological development of a plant in an environment; however, they usually require substantial experimental data to calibrate the parameters of the model. The parameters are mostly genotype-specific and are thus usually estimated separately for each cultivar. We propose an integrated approach that links genotype marker data with the developmental genotype-specific parameters of CGMs with a machine learning model, and allows heading date prediction of a new genotype in a new environment. To estimate the parameters, we implemented a Bayesian approach with the advanced Markov chain Monte-Carlo algorithm called the differential evolution adaptive metropolis and conducted the estimation using a large amount of data on heading date and environmental variables. The data comprised sowing and heading dates of 112 cultivars/lines tested at 7 locations for 14 years and the corresponding environmental variables (day length and daily temperature). We compared the predictive accuracy of DTH between the proposed approach, a CGM, and a single machine learning model. The results showed that the extreme learning machine (one of the implemented machine learning models) was superior to the CGM for the prediction of a tested genotype in a tested location. The proposed approach outperformed the machine learning method in the prediction of an untested genotype in an untested location. We also evaluated the potential of the proposed approach in the prediction of the distribution of DTH in 103 F2 segregation populations derived from crosses between a common parent, Koshihikari, and 103 cultivars/lines. The results showed a high correlation coefficient (ca. 0.8) of the 10, 50, and 90th percentiles of the observed and predicted distribution of DTH. In this study, the integration of a machine learning model and a CGM was better able to predict the heading date of a new rice cultivar in an untested potential environment.