Space-time analysis of work-related musculoskeletal disorders in Brazil: an ecological study.

This study aimed to analyze the incidence of work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSD) in Brazil from 2007 to 2019, examining the spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal patterns of their occurrence. An ecological time series study was conducted using spatial analysis techniques. WMSD morbidity data from 2007 to 2019 were collected from the Brazilian Information System for Notificable Diseases of the Brazilian Health Informatics Department. Incidence rates were standardized and smoothed using the local empirical Bayes' theorem. Time trends were analyzed by segmented linear regression. Spatial analysis was performed using Moran's univariate global (I) and local (LISA) indexes. The spatiotemporal scan statistic was used to identify high-risk spatiotemporal clusters for WMSD. A total of 93,387 cases of WMSD were recorded in Brazil. Temporal trends showed an increase in all regions except the Northeast, which remained stable. The incidence of WMSD showed a spatial dependence, with spatial and space-time clusters identified, especially in the Southeast region, overlapping the largest economic-industrial center of the country. The spatiotemporal clustering observed in one region suggests the highest level of industrial and economic development. Our findings highlight the need to implement intersectoral surveillance policies, inspect working conditions, and invest in the prevention and promotion of workers' health.

Space-time analysis of work-related musculoskeletal disorders in Brazil: an ecological study / Análise espaço-temporal dos distúrbios osteomusculares relacionados ao trabalho no Brasil: um estudo ecológico / Análisis espacio-temporal de los trastornos musculoesqueléticos relacionados con el trabajo en Brasil: un estudio ecológico

Abstract: This study aimed to analyze the incidence of work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSD) in Brazil from 2007 to 2019, examining the spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal patterns of their occurrence. An ecological time series study was conducted using spatial analysis techniques. WMSD morbidity data from 2007 to 2019 were collected from the Brazilian Information System for Notificable Diseases of the Brazilian Health Informatics Department. Incidence rates were standardized and smoothed using the local empirical Bayes' theorem. Time trends were analyzed by segmented linear regression. Spatial analysis was performed using Moran's univariate global (I) and local (LISA) indexes. The spatiotemporal scan statistic was used to identify high-risk spatiotemporal clusters for WMSD. A total of 93,387 cases of WMSD were recorded in Brazil. Temporal trends showed an increase in all regions except the Northeast, which remained stable. The incidence of WMSD showed a spatial dependence, with spatial and space-time clusters identified, especially in the Southeast region, overlapping the largest economic-industrial center of the country. The spatiotemporal clustering observed in one region suggests the highest level of industrial and economic development. Our findings highlight the need to implement intersectoral surveillance policies, inspect working conditions, and invest in the prevention and promotion of workers' health.

Resumo: O objetivo foi analisar a incidência de distúrbios osteomusculares relacionados ao trabalho (DORT) no Brasil de 2007 a 2019, examinando os padrões espaciais, temporais e espaço-temporais de sua ocorrência. Foi realizado um estudo ecológico de séries temporais utilizando técnicas de análise espacial. Os dados de morbidade por DORT de 2007 a 2019 foram coletados do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação do Departamento de Informática do SUS. As taxas de incidência foram padronizadas e suavizadas pelo método de Bayes empírico local. As tendências temporais foram examinadas por meio de regressão linear segmentada. A análise espacial foi realizada utilizando-se os índices univariados de Moran global (I) e índice de Moran local (LISA). A estatística de varredura espaço-temporal foi aplicada para identificar aglomerados espaço-temporais de DORT de alto risco. Foram registrados 93.387 casos de DORT no Brasil. A tendência temporal mostrou aumento em todas as regiões, exceto no Nordeste, que se manteve estável. A incidência de DORT apresentou dependência espacial e foram identificados aglomerados espaciais e espaço-temporais, particularmente na Região Sudeste, sobrepondo-se ao maior centro econômico-industrial do país. A aglomeração espaço-temporal observada em uma região sugere maior nível de desenvolvimento industrial e econômico. Os achados evidenciam a necessidade de implementação de políticas intersetoriais de vigilância, fiscalização das condições de trabalho e investimentos na prevenção e promoção da saúde do trabalhador.

Resumen: El objetivo fue analizar la incidencia de los trastornos musculoesqueléticos relacionados con el trabajo (TMERT) en Brasil del 2007 al 2019, examinando los patrones espaciales, temporales y espacio-temporales de su incidencia. Se realizó un estudio ecológico de series temporales usando técnicas de análisis espacial. Los datos de morbilidad por TMERT del 2007 al 2019 se recolectaron del Sistema de Información de Enfermedades de Notificación Obligatoria del Departamento de Informática del Sistema Único de Salud. Las tasas de incidencia se estandarizaron y se suavizaron usando el método de Bayes empírico local. Las tendencias temporales se examinaron mediante regresión lineal segmentada. El análisis espacial se realizó utilizando los índices univariados de Moran global (I) y el índice de Moran local (LISA). Se aplicó la estadística de análisis espacio-temporal para identificar aglomerados espacio-temporales de TMERT de alto riesgo. En Brasil se registraron 93.387 casos de TMERT. La tendencia temporal mostró aumento en todas las regiones, salvo en el Nordeste, que se mantuvo estable. La incidencia de TMERT presentó dependencia espacial y se identificaron aglomerados espaciales y espacio-temporales, particularmente en la región Sudeste, superponiéndose al centro económico-industrial más grande del país. La aglomeración espacio-temporal observada en una región sugiere un mayor nivel de desarrollo industrial y económico. Los hallazgos resaltan la necesidad de implementar políticas intersectoriales de vigilancia, inspección de las condiciones de trabajo e inversiones en la prevención y promoción de la salud del trabajador.

Space-time risk clusters of Covid-19 in a tourism area in the northeastern Brazil: an epidemiological overview after two years of pandemic

The world is facing a serious viral infection caused by the new Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2. We aimed to evaluate and map the high-risk clusters of COVID-19 in the State of Alagoas, a touristic area in northeastern Brazil, after two years of pandemic by a population-based ecological study, using COVID-19 cases reported in the State of Alagoas, between March, 2020 and April, 2022. We performed a descriptive and statistical analysis of epidemiological data. We then map high-risk areas for COVID-19, using spatial analysis, considering the incidence rate by municipality. 297,972 positive cases were registered; 56.9% were female and 42.7% aged between 20 and 39 years old. Men (OR = 1.59) and older than 60 years old (OR = 29.64) had a higher risk of death, while the highest incidence rates of the disease occurred in the metropolitan region. Our data demonstrate the impact of COVID-19 in the State of Alagoas, through the two years of pandemic. Although the number of cases were greater among women and young adults, the chance of death was greater among men and older adults. High-risk clusters of the disease initially occur in metropolitan cities and tourist areas.

Evaluation of the schistosomiasis control program (PCE) in an endemic area, northeastern Brazil: a population-based and 10-year time series study

Schistosomiasis is an endemic disease in Brazil and the State with the highest positive rate in the country is Sergipe. Herein, we assessed data from the Brazilian Schistosomiasis Control Program (PCE) in the State of Sergipe between the period 2008 and 2017. We evaluated data about schistosomiasis and snails of the genus Biomphalaria. We used the log-linear regression model (joinpoint) to assess temporal trends and the Kernel estimator for spatial statistics analysis. According to the PCE, Sergipe has 51 endemic municipalities for schistosomiasis. Nevertheless, information about the disease and that collected by the PCE has not been recorded regularly in all endemic municipalities. Additionally, only nine municipalities (17.6%) carried out the malacological survey. The average of positive rate from schistosomiasis in Sergipe was 8.4%. However, our data suggest that it may be underestimated. The spatial analysis maps (Kernel maps) showed areas of high transmission of the disease in municipalities close to the São Francisco River and in the metropolitan region of the State. Altogether, our findings suggest that schistosomiasis has been underreported and it is still a serious public health concern in Sergipe. In addition, there are significant failures in the conduction of PCE's activities by the municipalities.

Construction and validation of an instrument for assessing the functionality of individuals with schistosomiasis / Construcción y validación de instrumento de evaluación del funcionamiento de individuos con esquistosomiasis / Construção e validação de instrumento de avaliação da funcionalidade de indivíduos com esquistossomose

ABSTRACT Objectives: to construct and validate an instrument for assessing the functionality of individuals with schistosomiasis. Methods: methodological study, developed in three stages: 1) construction of the instrument and its association with categories of the International Classification of Functionality, which the study used to elaborate the questions; 2) validation of content, performed by judges experts in the subject; 3) application of the instrument by the test-retest technique in the population with schistosomiasis in 14 days. The study used the correlation coefficient kappa to calculate the degree of agreement between the judges kappa. Results: in its final version, the instrument consists of 27 items, 9 of which are from the Body functions component, 6 from Body structures, 4 from Activity and participation, and 8 from Environmental factors. Conclusions: the constructed instrument has a biopsychosocial approach, considering four components of the ICF, besides presenting good validity and interobserver reliability.

RESUMEN Objetivos: construir y validar instrumento de evaluación del funcionamiento de individuos con esquistosomiasis. Métodos: estudio metodológico, desarrollado en tres etapas: 1) Construcción del instrumento y su asociación con categorías de la Clasificación Internacional del Funcionamiento, que fueron usadas para elaborar las preguntas; 2) Validez de contenido, realizada por jueces especialistas en la temática; 3) Aplicación del instrumento por la técnica de test-retest en la población con esquistosomiasis en el intervalo de 14 días. Para cálculo del grado de concordancia entre los jueces, se utilizó el coeficiente de correlación kappa. Resultados: en su versión final, el instrumento se constituyó por 27 ítems, siendo 9 del componente de Funciones del cuerpo, 6 de Estructuras del cuerpo, 4 de Actividad y participación y 8 de Factores ambientales. Fue considerado válido y confiable. Conclusiones: el instrumento construido tiene abordaje biopsicosocial, considerando cuatro componentes de la CIF, además de presentar buena validez y confiabilidad interobservador.

RESUMO Objetivos: construir e validar um instrumento de avaliação da funcionalidade de indivíduos com esquistossomose. Métodos: estudo metodológico, desenvolvido em três etapas: 1) Construção do instrumento e associação deste com categorias da Classificação Internacional de Funcionalidade, que foram usadas para elaborar as perguntas; 2) Validação de conteúdo, realizada por juízes especialistas na temática; 3) Aplicação do instrumento pela técnica de teste-reteste na população com esquistossomose no intervalo de 14 dias. Para o cálculo do grau de concordância entre os juízes, utilizou-se o coeficiente de correlação kappa. Resultados: em sua versão final, o instrumento constitui-se por 27 itens, sendo 9 do componente de Funções do corpo, 6 de Estruturas do corpo, 4 de Atividade e participação e 8 de Fatores ambientais. Foi considerado válido e confiável. Conclusões: o instrumento construído tem abordagem biopsicossocial, considerando quatro componentes da CIF, além de apresentar boa validade e confiabilidade interobservador.

Construction and validation of an instrument for assessing the functionality of individuals with schistosomiasis.

OBJECTIVES: to construct and validate an instrument for assessing the functionality of individuals with schistosomiasis. METHODS: methodological study, developed in three stages: 1) construction of the instrument and its association with categories of the International Classification of Functionality, which the study used to elaborate the questions; 2) validation of content, performed by judges experts in the subject; 3) application of the instrument by the test-retest technique in the population with schistosomiasis in 14 days. The study used the correlation coefficient kappa to calculate the degree of agreement between the judges kappa. RESULTS: in its final version, the instrument consists of 27 items, 9 of which are from the Body functions component, 6 from Body structures, 4 from Activity and participation, and 8 from Environmental factors. CONCLUSIONS: the constructed instrument has a biopsychosocial approach, considering four components of the ICF, besides presenting good validity and interobserver reliability.

Desenvolvimento de um instrumento de avaliação para o método Pilates baseado na Classificação Internacional de Funcionalidade, Incapacidade e Saúde / Development of an evaluation instrument for the Pilates method based on the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health

Há uma escassez em evidências científicas acerca de instrumentos de avaliação validados e padronizados aplicados ao Pilates. Diante da importância de uma análise individualizada e holística de cada paciente/cliente para melhor aplicação do método, faz-se necessário a construção de instrumentos que possuam uma abordagem biopsicossocial. Objetivo: Desenvolver um instrumento de avaliação para o Pilates, baseado na da Classificação Internacional de Funcionalidade, Incapacidade e Saúde (CIF). Métodos: A pesquisa foi realizada em quatro etapas. Levantamentos de informações sobre a avaliação no método Pilates, associação das informações com categorias da CIF, estudo Delphi, construção do instrumento. As informações foram obtidas por meio de um a scoping review e entrevistas com fisioterapeutas que trabalham com o Pilates, para construção as informações obtidas foram vinculadas com as categorias da CIF por dois pesquisadores de forma independente, em caso de discordância um terceiro julgaria a mais pertinente. Em seguida, foi realizado um estudo Delphi, para selecionar as categorias mais relevantes para compor o instrumento. Por fim, a construção do instrumento por três pesquisadores com conhecimento em Pilates e CIF. Resultados: O instrumento foi constituído por 49 categorias da CIF, distribuídas em 33 questões, sendo, 10 de funções do corpo, duas de estruturas do corpo, 16 de atividade e participação e, cinco dos fatores ambientais. Conclusão: O estudo possibilitou a construção de um instrumento que visa facilitar a compreensão do estado de saúde do paciente a partir de uma avaliação já realizada em cada serviço e, ao final será proporcionado uma linguagem comum.

There is a lack of scientific evidence on validated and standardized evaluation instruments applied to Pilates. Given the importance of an individualized and holistic analysis of each patient/client for a better application of the method, it is necessary to build instruments that have a bio-psychosocial approach. Objective: To develop an evaluation instrument for Pilates, based on the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF). Methods: The research was carried out in four stages. This is a survey of information about the assessment in the Pilates method, association of information with ICF categories, Delphi study, construction of the instrument. The information was obtained through a scoping review and interviews with physical therapists who work with Pilates. For the construction of the instrument, the information obtained was independently linked to the ICF categories by two researchers, and in case of disagreement a third party would judge the most pertinent. Next, a Delphi study was carried out to select the most relevant categories to compose the instrument; finally, the construction of the instrument by three researchers with knowledge about Pilates and ICF. Results: The instrument was made up of 49 ICF categories, distributed among 33 questions, being ten of body functions, two of body structures, 16 of activity and participation, and five of environmental factors. Conclusion: The study allowed the construction of an instrument that aims to facilitate the understanding of the patient's health status from an evaluation already performed in each service and, at the end, will provide a common language.

Quality of tuberculosis information systems after record linkage.

OBJECTIVE: to analyze the quality of a tuberculosis notification information system after record linkage and spatial and temporal distribution of tuberculosis in a Brazilian state. METHOD: an ecological study carried between 2006 and 2016 in Sergipe, Brazil. A deterministic linkage was performed with Notifiable Diseases Information System and Mortality Information System, recording 7,873 cases and 483 deaths. The temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence was calculated. RESULTS: there was an increase among men (2.75%), > 60 years (6.29%), higher education (4.34%) and indigenous (4.76%). A total of 190 new cases (2.9%) was found. There was an increasing trend in tuberculosis incidence with a concentration of deaths in the metropolitan region. CONCLUSION: the quality of the information system showed fragility in identifying cases and deaths in Sergipe. Temporal distribution showed an increasing trend in tuberculosis incidence, and spatial distribution identified higher incidences in southeastern Brazil.

Riscos de quedas em idosos e a COVID-19: Um alerta de saúde e proposta de exercícios funcionais / Risk of falls in the elderly and COVID-19: A health alert and functional exercise

A COVID-19 causa uma sintomatologia diversificada e um risco eminente de morte, visto ainda que não há tratamento específico, nem tão pouco uma vacina preventiva para todos. A população deve seguir as orientações da Organização Mundial de Saúde (OMS) e, a principal delas é o isolamento social. No entanto, essa medida traz um grande impacto no aspecto biopsicossocial dos idosos, resultando em um possível decréscimo da capacidade funcional. O envelhecimento é compreendido como um processo fisiológico irreversível, e com isso, acarreta prejuízos na autonomia e independência. Paralelamente a esse fenômeno, nota-se que as alterações anátomofisiológicas nos idosos são diversas, aumentando assim, a incidência de quedas. O isolamento social, pode ser um fator preponderante a acentuação das quedas em idosos e consequente sobrecarga do sistema público de saúde. Logo, os exercícios físicos funcionais são fundamentais para que esses indivíduos reduzam significativamente os impactos sistêmicos causados pelo envelhecimento e consequentemente as quedas

COVID-19 causes diversified symptoms and an imminent risk of death, even though there is no specific treatment or a preventive vaccine. The population must follow the guidelines of the World Health Organization ( WHO) and the main one is social isolation. However, this measure has a great impact on the biopsychosocial aspect of the elderly, capable of decreasing functional capacity. Aging is understood as an irreversible physiological process, and as a result, it causes losses in autonomy and independence. Parallel to this phenomenon, it is noted that anatomo-physiological changes in the elderly are diverse, thus increasing the incidence of falls. Social isolation can be a major factor in accentuating falls in the elderly and the consequent burden on the public health system. Therefore, physical exercises are essentials so that they necessarily reduce the systemic impacts caused by aging and consequently as falls

[Tuberculosis among children and adolescents: an epidemiological and spatial analysis in the state of Sergipe, Brazil, 2001-2017]. / Tuberculose em crianças e adolescentes: uma análise epidemiológica e espacial no estado de Sergipe, Brasil, 2001-2017.

Tuberculosis continues to be of the most frequent diseases in the world and one of the main causes of morbidity and mortality. Data from the World Health Organization indicate that Brazil accounts for 75% of global cases involving children. The study aims to analyze the epidemiological and spatial pattern of tuberculosis in children and adolescents in the state of Sergipe during the period from 2001 to 2017. This is an ecological, temporal series study using secondary data. The categorical variables were summarized in simple and absolute frequency. In the spatial analysis the Bayesian method for rate smoothing and the Moran index were used to evaluate spatial autocorrelation. Trend analysis was performed using the Joinpoint regression model. The mean incidence rate was 5.9, with a predominance of 15 to 19 years of age (76.4%) and a steady trend, but with a positive annual variation in both sexes. Tuberculosis in children and adolescents has significant spatial dependence in the north and northeast regions. The knowledge of the epidemiological situation of tuberculosis over the years provides subsidies for the targeting of resources in risk areas and new strategies for prevention and control of the disease among children and adolescents.

A tuberculose continua como uma das doenças mais frequentes no mundo e uma das principais causas de morbimortalidade. Dados da Organização Mundial de Saúde indicam que o Brasil responde por 75% dos casos mundiais envolvendo crianças. O estudo objetiva analisar o padrão epidemiológico e espacial da tuberculose em crianças e adolescentes no estado de Sergipe durante o período de 2001 a 2017. Trata-se de um estudo ecológico, de serie temporal, com uso de dados secundários. As variáveis categóricas foram sumarizadas em frequência simples e absoluta. Na análise espacial foi utilizado o método bayesiano para suavização de taxas e o índice de Moran para avaliar a autocorrelação espacial. A análise de tendência foi realizada por meio do modelo de regressão Joinpoint. Verificou que a taxa média de incidência foi de 5,9 com predomínio na faixa etária 15 a 19 anos (76,4%) e tendência estacionaria, porém com variação anual positiva em ambos os sexos. A tuberculose em crianças e adolescentes apresenta dependência espacial significante nas regiões norte e nordeste. O conhecimento da situação epidemiológica da tuberculose ao longo dos anos fornece subsídios para o direcionamento de recursos em áreas de risco e às novas estratégias de prevenção e controle da doença em crianças e adolescentes.

COVID-19 infection in pregnant women, preterm delivery, birth weight, and vertical transmission: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

In less than four months, the total of confirmed cases of COVID-19 was 1,684,833 worldwide. Outcomes among the public of pregnant women with COVID-19 are still unclear. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to analyze whether COVID-19 in pregnant women is related to premature birth and birth weight, and to summarize the diagnostic results of neonates born to mothers with COVID-19 for investigating the possibility of vertical transmission. Searches were performed in PubMed, Scopus, LILACS, Web of Science, Google Scholar, Preprints, bioRxiv, and medRxiv. We used the odds ratio (OR) and mean difference (MD) as measure of analysis. Summary estimates were calculated using random effects models. 38 studies were included; data from 279 women were analyzed; 60 patients were diagnosed with COVID-19. The meta-analysis showed no significant association between COVID-19 and preterm delivery (OR = 2.25; 95%CI: 0.96, 5.31; p = 0.06; I² = 0%). No significant relationship was found between birth weight and COVID-19 (MD = -124.16; 95%CI: -260.54, 12.22; p = 0.07; I² = 0%). Among 432 newborns, 10 were reported with positive results for early SARS-CoV-2. Due to the characteristics of the studies, the level of evidence of this meta-analysis was considered very low. COVID-19 in pregnant women may not be associated with the occurrence of preterm deliveries or the birth weight of the newborn children, however the evidence to date is very uncertain. A few reports suggest vertical transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to newborn is possible, but evidence is still uncertain.

Prediction of cumulative rate of COVID-19 deaths in Brazil: a modeling study.

OBJECTIVE: Estimating the potential number of COVID-19 deaths in Brazil for the coming months. METHODS: The study included all confirmed cases of COVID-19 deaths, from the first confirmed death on March 17th to May 15th, 2020. These data were collected from an official Brazilian website of the Ministry of Health. The Boltzmann function was applied to a data simulation for each set of data regarding all states of the country. RESULTS: The model data were well-fitted, with R2 values close to 0.999. Up to May 15th, 14,817 COVID-19 deaths have been confirmed in the country. Amazonas has the highest rate of accumulated cases per 1,000,000 inhabitants (321.14), followed by Ceará (161.63). Rio de Janeiro, Roraima, Amazonas, Pará, and Pernambuco are estimated to experience a substantial increase in the rate of cumulative cases until July 15th. Mato Grosso do Sul, Paraná, Minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Sul, and Santa Catarina will show lower rates per 1,000,000 inhabitants. CONCLUSION: We estimate a substantial increase in the rate of cumulative cases in Brazil over the next months. The Boltzmann function proved to be a simple tool for epidemiological forecasting that can assist in the planning of measures to contain COVID-19.

Forecasting the rate of cumulative cases of COVID-19 infection in Northeast Brazil: a Boltzmann function-based modeling study.

The COVID-19 death rate in Northeast Brazil is much higher when compared to the national average, demanding a study into the prognosis of the region for planning control measures and preventing the collapse of the health care system. We estimated the potential total cumulative cases of COVID-19 in the region for the next three months. Our study included all confirmed cases, from March 8 until April 28, 2020, collected from the official website that reports the situation of COVID-19 infections in Brazil. The Boltzmann function was applied to a data simulation for each set of data regarding different states. The model data were well fitted, with R2 values close to 0.999. Up to April 28, 20,665 cases were confirmed in the region. The state of Ceará has the highest rate of accumulated cases per 100,000 inhabitants (75.75), followed by Pernambuco. We estimated that the states of Ceará, Sergipe and Paraíba will experience a dramatic increase in the rate of cumulative cases until July 31. Maranhão, Pernambuco, Rio Grande do Norte and Piauí showed a more discreet increase in the model. For Bahia and Alagoas, a 4.7 and 6.6-fold increase in the rate was estimated, respectively. We estimate a substantial increase in the rate of cumulative cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the region within three months, especially for Ceará, Sergipe and Paraíba. The Boltzmann function proved to be a simple tool for epidemiological forecasting that can help planning the measures to contain COVID-19.

Surveillance of the first cases of COVID-19 in Sergipe using a prospective spatiotemporal analysis: the spatial dispersion and its public health implications.

INTRODUCTION: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a global public health emergency with lethality ranging from 1% to 5%. This study aimed to identify active high-risk transmission clusters of COVID-19 in Sergipe. METHODS: We performed a prospective space-time analysis using confirmed cases of COVID-19 during the first 7 weeks of the outbreak in Sergipe. RESULTS: The prospective space-time statistic detected "active" and emerging spatio-temporal clusters comprising six municipalities in the south-central region of the state. CONCLUSIONS: The Geographic Information System (GIS) associated with spatio-temporal scan statistics can provide timely support for surveillance and assist in decision-making.

PREDICTION OF CUMULATIVE RATE OF COVID-19 DEATHS IN BRAZIL: A MODELING STUDY / PROJEÇÃO DA TAXA CUMULATIVA DE ÓBITOS POR COVID-19 NO BRASIL: UM ESTUDO DE MODELAGEM

Purpose: We estimated the potential number of COVID-19 deaths for Brazil for the next months. Methods: The study included all confirmed cases of COVID-19 deaths, from the first confirmed death on March 17 until May 15, 2020. These data were collected from an official Brazilian website of the Ministry of Health. The Boltzmann function was applied to a data simulation for each set of data regarding to all states of the country. Results: The model data were well-fitted, with R2 values close to 0.999. Up to May 15, 14,817 COVID-19 deaths were confirmed in the country. Amazonas has the highest rate of accumulated cases per 1,000,000 inhabitants (321.14), followed by Ceará (161.63). We estimated that Rio de Janeiro, Roraima, Amazonas, Pará, and Pernambuco will experience a substantial increase in the rate of cumulative cases until July 15. Mato Grosso do Sul, Paraná, Minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Sul, and Santa Catarina will show lower rates per 1,000,000 inhabitants. Conclusion: We estimate a substantial increase in the rate of cumulative cases in Brazil over the next months. The Boltzmann function proved to be a simple tool for epidemiological forecasting that can assist in the planning of measures to contain COVID-19.

Objetivo: estimar o número potencial de mortes por COVID-19 no Brasil nos próximos meses. Métodos: O estudo incluiu todos os casos confirmados de óbitos do COVID-19, desde o primeiro óbito confirmado em 17 de março até 15 de maio de 2020. Esses dados foram coletados no site oficial do Ministério da Saúde. A função Boltzmann foi aplicada a uma simulação de dados para cada conjunto de dados referente a todos os estados do país. Resultados: Os dados do modelo foram bem ajustados, com valores de R² próximos a 0,999. Até 15 de maio, 14.817 mortes de COVID-19 foram confirmadas no país. O Amazonas possui a maior taxa de casos acumulados por 1.000.000 habitantes (321,14), seguido por Ceará (161,63). Estimou-se que o Rio de Janeiro, Roraima, Amazonas, Pará e Pernambuco sofrerão um aumento substancial na taxa de casos acumulados até 15 de julho. Mato Grosso do Sul, Paraná, Minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Sul e Santa Catarina apresentarão taxas potenciais mais baixas por 1.000.000 habitantes. Conclusão: Foi estimado um aumento substancial na taxa de casos cumulativos no Brasil nos próximos meses. A função Boltzmann provou ser uma ferramenta simples para previsão epidemiológica que pode auxiliar no planejamento de medidas para conter o COVID-19.

Surveillance of the first cases of COVID-19 in Sergipe using a prospective spatiotemporal analysis: the spatial dispersion and its public health implications

Introduction: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a global public health emergency with lethality ranging from 1% to 5%. This study aimed to identify active high-risk transmission clusters of COVID-19 in Sergipe. Methods: We performed a prospective space-time analysis using confirmed cases of COVID-19 during the first 7 weeks of the outbreak in Sergipe. Results: The prospective space-time statistic detected "active" and emerging spatio-temporal clusters comprising six municipalities in the south-central region of the state. Conclusions: The Geographic Information System (GIS) associated with spatio-temporal scan statistics can provide timely support for surveillance and assist in decision-making.

Spatial and temporal analysis of the human immunodeficiency virus in an area of social vulnerability in Northeast Brazil.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection still represents an important public health problem, because it involves clinical, epidemiological, social, economic and political issues. We analyzed the temporal and spatial pattern of the HIV incidence in an area of social inequality in northeast Brazil and its association with socioeconomic indicators. An ecological study was carried out with a focus on all HIV cases reported in Alagoas State, Northeast Brazil from 2007 to 2016 using its 102 municipalities as the units of our analysis. Data from the Brazilian information systems were used. Georeferenced data were analyzed using TerraView 4.2.2 software, QGis 2.18.2 and GeoDa 1.14.0. Time trend analyses were performed by the Joinpoint Regression software and the spatial analyses included the empirical Bayesian model and Moran autocorrelation. Spatial regression was used to determine the influence of space on HIV incidence rate and socioeconomic inequalities. There was an increasing trend of HIV rates, especially in the municipalities of the interior. Significant spatial correlations were observed with the formation of clusters with emphasis on the coast of the state and in tourist regions. Spatial regression explained 46% of the dependent variable. The HIV incidence rate was positively influenced by rate of primary health care units (P=0.00), and negatively by Gini index (P=0.00) and proportion of heads of household without or low education (P=0.02). We conclude that the relationship found between indicators of better socioeconomic conditions and HIV infection suggests unequal access to the diagnosis of infection. Prevention and control strategies can be established according to each epidemiological reality.

Quality of tuberculosis information systems after record linkage / Calidad de los sistemas de información sobre tuberculosis después de la vinculación de bases de datos / Qualidade dos sistemas de informação da tuberculose após linkage das bases de dados

ABSTRACT Objective: to analyze the quality of a tuberculosis notification information system after record linkage and spatial and temporal distribution of tuberculosis in a Brazilian state. Method: an ecological study carried between 2006 and 2016 in Sergipe, Brazil. A deterministic linkage was performed with Notifiable Diseases Information System and Mortality Information System, recording 7,873 cases and 483 deaths. The temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence was calculated. Results: there was an increase among men (2.75%), > 60 years (6.29%), higher education (4.34%) and indigenous (4.76%). A total of 190 new cases (2.9%) was found. There was an increasing trend in tuberculosis incidence with a concentration of deaths in the metropolitan region. Conclusion: the quality of the information system showed fragility in identifying cases and deaths in Sergipe. Temporal distribution showed an increasing trend in tuberculosis incidence, and spatial distribution identified higher incidences in southeastern Brazil.

RESUMEN Objetivo: analizar la calidad del sistema de información sobre tuberculosis después de la vinculación de registros y la distribución espacial y temporal de la tuberculosis en el estado brasileño. Método: estudio ecológico realizado entre 2006 y 2016 en Sergipe, Brasil. Se realizó la vinculación determinística con las bases de datos del Sistema de Información de Enfermedades de Notificación y del Sistema de Información de Mortalidad, registrando 7873 casos y 483 defunciones. Se calculó la tendencia temporal de la incidencia de tuberculosis. Resultados: hubo un aumento entre los hombres (2,75%), > 60 años (6,29%), educación superior (4,34%) e indígenas (4,76%). Se encontraron 190 casos nuevos (2,9%). Hubo una tendencia creciente en la incidencia de tuberculosis con una concentración de muertes en la región metropolitana. Conclusión: la calidad del sistema de información mostró debilidad en la identificación de casos y muertes en Sergipe. La distribución temporal mostró una tendencia creciente en la incidencia de tuberculosis, y la distribución espacial identificó mayores incidencias en la Región Sudeste.

RESUMO Objetivo: analisar a qualidade do sistema de informação da tuberculose após linkage de registros e a distribuição espacial e temporal da tuberculose em estado brasileiro. Método: estudo ecológico realizado entre 2006 e 2016 em Sergipe, Brasil. Foi realizado o linkage determinístico com as bases de dados do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação e do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade, registrando 7.873 casos e 483 óbitos. A tendência temporal da incidência por tuberculose foi calculada. Resultados: houve incremento entre homens (2,75%), > 60 anos (6,29%), ensino superior (4,34%) e indígenas (4,76%). Foram encontrados 190 casos novos (2,9%). Observou-se tendência crescente da incidência de tuberculose com concentração de óbitos na região metropolitana. Conclusão: a qualidade do sistema de informação mostrou fragilidade na identificação de casos e óbitos em Sergipe. A distribuição temporal mostrou tendência crescente da incidência de tuberculose, e a distribuição espacial identificou maiores incidências na Região Sudeste.