RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious and devastating pig disease that has caused extensive global economic losses. Understanding ASF virus (ASFV) transmission dynamics within a herd is necessary in order to prepare for and respond to an outbreak in the United States. Although the transmission parameters for the highly virulent ASF strains have been estimated in several articles, there are relatively few studies focused on moderately virulent strains. Using an approximate Bayesian computation algorithm in conjunction with Monte Carlo simulation, we have estimated the adequate contact rate for moderately virulent ASFV strains and determined the statistical distributions for the durations of mild and severe clinical signs using individual, pig-level data. A discrete individual based disease transmission model was then used to estimate the time to detect ASF infection based on increased mild clinical signs, severe clinical signs, or daily mortality. RESULTS: Our results indicate that it may take two weeks or longer to detect ASF in a finisher swine herd via mild clinical signs or increased mortality beyond levels expected in routine production. A key factor contributing to the extended time to detect ASF in a herd is the fairly long latently infected period for an individual pig (mean 4.5, 95% P.I., 2.4 - 7.2 days). CONCLUSION: These transmission model parameter estimates and estimated time to detection via clinical signs provide valuable information that can be used not only to support emergency preparedness but also to inform other simulation models of evaluating regional disease spread.
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Virus de la Fiebre Porcina Africana , Fiebre Porcina Africana , Enfermedades de los Porcinos , Fiebre Porcina Africana/diagnóstico , Fiebre Porcina Africana/epidemiología , Animales , Teorema de Bayes , Brotes de Enfermedades/veterinaria , Porcinos , Enfermedades de los Porcinos/diagnóstico , Enfermedades de los Porcinos/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
Background: African swine fever (ASF) is one of the most important foreign animal diseases to the U.S. swine industry. Stakeholders in the swine production sector are on high alert as they witness the devastation of ongoing outbreaks in some of its most important trade partner countries. Efforts to improve preparedness for ASF outbreak management are proceeding in earnest and mathematical modeling is an integral part of these efforts. Aim: This study aimed to assess the impact on within-herd transmission dynamics of ASF when the models used to simulate transmission assume there is homogeneous mixing of animals within a barn. Methods: Barn-level heterogeneity was explicitly captured using a stochastic, individual pig-based, heterogeneous transmission model that considers three types of infection transmission, (1) within-pen via nose-to-nose contact; (2) between-pen via nose-to-nose contact with pigs in adjacent pens; and (3) both between- and within-pen via distance-independent mechanisms (e.g., via fomites). Predictions were compared between the heterogeneous and the homogeneous Gillespie models. Results: Results showed that the predicted mean number of infectious pigs at specific time points differed greatly between the homogeneous and heterogeneous models for scenarios with low levels of between-pen contacts via distance-independent pathways and the differences between the two model predictions were more pronounced for the slow contact rate scenario. The heterogeneous transmission model results also showed that it may take significantly longer to detect ASF, particularly in large barns when transmission predominantly occurs via nose-to-nose contact between pigs in adjacent pens. Conclusion: The findings emphasize the need for completing preliminary explorations when working with homogeneous mixing models to ascertain their suitability to predict disease outcomes.
Asunto(s)
Virus de la Fiebre Porcina Africana , Fiebre Porcina Africana , Enfermedades de los Porcinos , Porcinos , Animales , Fiebre Porcina Africana/epidemiología , Brotes de Enfermedades/veterinaria , Enfermedades de los Porcinos/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
Understanding the amount of virus shed at the flock level by birds infected with low pathogenicity avian influenza virus (LPAIV) over time can help inform the type and timing of activities performed in response to a confirmed LPAIV-positive premises. To this end, we developed a mathematical model which allows us to estimate viral shedding by 10,000 turkey toms raised in commercial turkey production in the United States, and infected by H7 LPAIV strains. We simulated the amount of virus shed orally and from the cloaca over time, as well as the amount of virus in manure. In addition, we simulated the threshold cycle value (Ct) of pooled oropharyngeal swabs from birds in the infected flock tested by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. The simulation model predicted that little to no shedding would occur once the highest threshold of seroconversion was reached. Substantial amounts of virus in manure (median 1.5×108 and 5.8×109; 50% egg infectious dose) were predicted at the peak. Lastly, the model results suggested that higher Ct values, indicating less viral shedding, are more likely to be observed later in the infection process as the flock approaches recovery.
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Gripe Aviar/virología , Pavos/virología , Esparcimiento de Virus , Animales , Gripe Aviar/transmisión , Modelos Teóricos , Reacción en Cadena en Tiempo Real de la Polimerasa , Reacción en Cadena de la Polimerasa de Transcriptasa InversaRESUMEN
The 2015 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N2 outbreak affected more than 200 Midwestern U.S. poultry premises. Although each affected poultry operation incurred substantial losses, some operations of the same production type and of similar scale had differences between one another in their ability to recognize evidence of the disease before formal diagnoses and in their ability to make proactive, farm-level disease containment decisions. In this case comparison study, we examine the effect of HPAI infection on two large egg production facilities and the epidemiologic and financial implications resulting from differences in detection and decision-making processes. Each egg laying facility had more than 1 million caged birds distributed among 18 barns on one premises (Farm A) and 17 barns on the other premises (Farm B). We examine how farm workers' awareness of disease signs, as well as how management's immediate or delayed decisions to engage in depopulation procedures, affected flock mortality, levels of environmental contamination, time intervals for re population, and farm profits on each farm. By predictive mathematical modeling, we estimated the time of virus introduction to examine how quickly infection was identified on the farms and then estimated associated contact rates within barns. We found that the farm that implemented depopulation immediately after detection of abnormal mortality (Farm A) was able to begin repopulation of barns 37 days sooner than the farm that began depopulation well after the detection of abnormally elevated mortality (Farm B). From average industry economic data, we determined that the loss associated with delayed detection using lost profit per day in relation to down time was an additional $3.3 million for Farm B when compared with Farm A.
Estudio retrospectivo de detección viral temprana y tardía y despoblación en granjas de gallinas de postura infectadas con el virus de la influenza aviar altamente patógeno durante el brote de H5N2 del año 2015 en los Estados Unidos. El brote de influenza aviar altamente patógena (HPAI) H5N2 del año 2015 afectó a más de 200 granjas avícolas del medio oeste de los Estados Unidos. Aunque cada operación avícola afectada incurrió en pérdidas sustanciales, algunas operaciones del mismo tipo de producción y de escala similar tuvieron diferencias entre sí en su capacidad para reconocer evidencias de la enfermedad antes de los diagnósticos formales y en su capacidad para realizar decisiones proactivas para la contención de la enfermedad a nivel de granja. En este estudio de caso, se examinó el efecto de la infección por influenza aviar altamente patógena en dos instalaciones grandes de producción de huevo y las implicaciones epidemiológicas y financieras que fueron resultado de los diferentes procesos de detección y toma de decisiones. Cada instalación de postura de huevo tenía más de un millón de aves enjauladas distribuidas en 18 casetas en una granja (Granja A) y 17 casetas en las otras instalaciones (Granja B). Se examinó cómo el conocimiento de los trabajadores agrícolas sobre los signos de la enfermedad, así como cómo las decisiones de manejo inmediatas o tardías para establecer procedimientos de despoblación, afectaron la mortalidad de las parvadas, los niveles de contaminación ambiental, los intervalos de tiempo para la repoblación y las ganancias en cada granja. Mediante un modelo matemático predictivo, se estimó el tiempo de introducción del virus para examinar la rapidez con la que se identificó la infección en las granjas y luego se estimaron las tasas de contacto asociadas dentro de las casetas. Se encontró que la granja que implementó la despoblación inmediatamente después de la detección de mortalidad anormal (Granja A) pudo comenzar la repoblación de las casetas 37 días antes que la granja que comenzó la despoblación mucho después de la detección de mortalidad anormalmente elevada (Granja B). A partir de los datos económicos promedio de la industria, se determinó que la pérdida asociada con la detección tardía utilizando las pérdidas de ganancias por día en relación con el tiempo de inactividad fue de $3.3 millones adicionales para la Granja B en comparación con la Granja A.
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Subtipo H5N2 del Virus de la Influenza A , Gripe Aviar , Enfermedades de las Aves de Corral , Animales , Pollos , Brotes de Enfermedades/veterinaria , Granjas , Gripe Aviar/epidemiología , Enfermedades de las Aves de Corral/epidemiología , Estudios Retrospectivos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
Limiting spread of low pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) during an outbreak is critical to reduce the negative impact on poultry producers and local economies. Mathematical models of disease transmission can support outbreak control efforts by estimating relevant epidemiological parameters. In this article, diagnostic testing data from each house on a premises infected during a LPAI H5N2 outbreak in the state of Minnesota in the United States in 2018 was used to estimate the time of virus introduction and adequate contact rate, which determines the rate of disease spread. A well-defined most likely time of virus introduction, and upper and lower 95% credibility intervals were estimated for each house. The length of the 95% credibility intervals ranged from 11 to 22 with a mean of 17 days. In some houses the contact rate estimates were also well-defined; however, the estimated upper 95% credibility interval bound for the contact rate was occasionally dependent on the upper bound of the prior distribution. The estimated modes ranged from 0.5 to 6.0 with a mean of 2.8 contacts per day. These estimates can be improved with early detection, increased testing of monitored premises, and combining the results of multiple barns that possess similar production systems.
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Gripe Aviar/patología , Modelos Teóricos , Enfermedades de las Aves de Corral/patología , Animales , Brotes de Enfermedades , Subtipo H5N2 del Virus de la Influenza A/aislamiento & purificación , Gripe Aviar/epidemiología , Gripe Aviar/virología , Minnesota/epidemiología , Enfermedades de las Aves de Corral/epidemiología , Enfermedades de las Aves de Corral/virología , PavosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Avian influenza (AI) is an infectious viral disease that affects several species and has zoonotic potential. Due to its associated health and economic repercussions, minimizing AI outbreaks is important. However, most control measures are generic and mostly target pathways important for the conventional poultry farms producing chickens, turkeys, and eggs and may not target other pathways that may be specific to the upland game bird sector. The goal of this study is to provide evidence to support the development of novel strategies for sector-specific AI control by comparing and contrasting practices and potential pathways for spread in upland game bird farms with those for conventional poultry farms in the United States. Farm practices and processes, seasonality of activities, geographic location and inter-farm distance were analyzed across the sectors. All the identified differences were framed and discussed in the context of their associated pathways for virus introduction into the farm and subsequent between-farm spread. RESULTS: Differences stemming from production systems and seasonality, inter-farm distance and farm densities were evident and these could influence both fomite-mediated and local-area spread risks. Upland game bird farms operate under a single, independent owner rather than being contracted with or owned by a company with other farms as is the case with conventional poultry. The seasonal marketing of upland game birds, largely driven by hunting seasons, implies that movements are seasonal and customer-vendor dynamics vary between industry groups. Farm location analysis revealed that, on average, an upland game bird premises was 15.42 km away from the nearest neighboring premises with birds compared to 3.74 km for turkey premises. Compared to turkey premises, the average poultry farm density in a radius of 10 km of an upland game bird premises was less than a half, and turkey premises were 3.8 times (43.5% compared with 11.5%) more likely to fall within a control area during the 2015 Minnesota outbreak. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that the existing differences in the seasonality of production, isolated geographic location and epidemiological seclusion of farms influence AI spread dynamics and therefore disease control measures should be informed by these and other factors to achieve success.
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Crianza de Animales Domésticos/métodos , Galliformes , Virus de la Influenza A , Gripe Aviar/epidemiología , Animales , Brotes de Enfermedades , Geografía , Gripe Aviar/prevención & control , Gripe Aviar/transmisión , Estaciones del Año , Estados UnidosRESUMEN
Outbreaks involving avian influenza viruses are often devastating to the poultry industry economically and otherwise. Disease surveillance is critically important because it facilitates timely detection and generates confidence that infected birds are not moved during business continuity intended to mitigate associated economic losses. The possibility of using an abnormal increase in daily mortality to levels that exceed predetermined thresholds as a trigger to initiate further diagnostic investigations for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus infection in the flock is explored. The range of optimal mortality thresholds varies by bird species, trigger type, and mortality thresholds, and these should be considered when assessing sector-specific triggers. The study uses purposefully collected data and data from the literature to determine optimal mortality triggers for HPAI detection in commercial upland game bird flocks. Three trigger types were assessed for the ability to detect rapidly both HPAI (on the basis of disease-induced and normal mortality data) and false alarm rate (on the basis of normal mortality data); namely, 1) exceeding a set absolute threshold on one day, 2) exceeding a set absolute threshold on two consecutive days, or 3) exceeding a multiple of a seven-day moving average. The likelihood of disease detection using some of these triggers together with premovement real-time reverse transcription PCR (rRT-PCR) testing was examined. Results indicate that the performance of the two consecutive days trigger had the best metrics (i.e., rapid detection with few false alarms) in the trade-off analysis. The collected normal mortality data was zero on 66% of all days recorded, with an overall mean of 0.6 dead birds per day. In the surveillance scenario analyses, combining the default protocol that relied only on active surveillance (i.e., premovement testing of oropharyngeal swab samples from dead birds by rRT-PCR) together with either of the mortality-based triggers improved detection rates on all days postexposure before scheduled movement. For exposures occurring within 8 days of movement, the protocol that combined the default with single-day triggers had slightly more detections than that with two consecutive days triggers. However, all assessed protocol combinations were able to detect all infections that occurred more than 10 days before scheduled movement. These findings can inform risk-based decisions pertaining to continuity of business in the commercial upland game bird industry.
Activadores basados en la mortalidad y protocolos de pruebas de premovimiento para la detección de la infección del virus de influenza aviar altamente patógena en aves de caza de tierras altas comerciales Los brotes que involucran virus de influenza aviar a menudo son económicamente devastadores para la industria avícola. La vigilancia de enfermedades es de importancia crítica porque facilita la detección oportuna y genera confianza en que las aves infectadas no serán movilizadas para continuar con la operación de las industrias avícolas para mitigar las pérdidas económicas asociadas. Se explora la posibilidad de utilizar un aumento anormal en la mortalidad diaria a niveles que excedan umbrales predeterminados como un desencadenante para iniciar investigaciones de diagnóstico para la infección del virus de la influenza aviar altamente patógena en la parvada. El rango de umbrales de mortalidad óptimos varían según la especie de ave, el tipo de activador y los umbrales de mortalidad y estos deben considerarse al evaluar los activadores específicos del sector. El estudio utiliza datos recopilados de manera planeada y datos de la literatura para determinar los desencadenantes de mortalidad óptimos para la detección de la influenza aviar altamente patógena en las parvadas comerciales de aves de caza de tierras altas. Se evaluaron tres activadores de acuerdo a su capacidad de detectar rápidamente influenza aviar altamente patógena (en función de los datos de mortalidad normal e inducida por la enfermedad) y la tasa de falsa alarma (en función de los datos de mortalidad normal); como son, 1) que se exceda un umbral absoluto establecido en un día, 2) que se exceda un umbral absoluto establecido en dos días consecutivos, o 3) que excede un múltiplo de un promedio móvil de siete días. Se examinó la probabilidad de detección de la enfermedad utilizando algunos de estos desencadenantes junto con la prueba de transcripción reversa y PCR en tiempo real (rRT-PCR). Los resultados indicaron que el rendimiento del disparador de dos días consecutivos tuvo los mejores resultados (es decir, detección rápida con pocas falsas alarmas) en el análisis costo-beneficio. Los datos de mortalidad normal recopilados fueron cero en el 66% de todos los días registrados, con una media general de 0.6 aves muertas por día. En los análisis de escenarios de vigilancia, la combinación del protocolo predeterminado que se basó únicamente en la vigilancia activa (por ejemplo pruebas antes de movilizaciones con muestras de hisopos orofaríngeos por rRT-PCR de aves muertas) a la par con cualquiera de los desencadenantes basados en la mortalidad mejoraron las tasas de detección en todos los días posteriores a la exposición antes del movimiento programado. Para las exposiciones que ocurrieron dentro de los ocho días de movimiento, el protocolo que combinó el valor predeterminado con los activadores de un solo día tuvo un poco más de detecciones que el de los activadores de dos días consecutivos. Sin embargo, todas las combinaciones de protocolos evaluadas pudieron detectar todas las infecciones que ocurrieron por más de 10 días antes del movimiento programado. Estos hallazgos pueden proveer información para la toma de decisiones basadas en el riesgo relacionadas con la continuidad de operaciones en la industria comercial de aves de caza de tierras altas.
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Brotes de Enfermedades/veterinaria , Galliformes , Virus de la Influenza A/fisiología , Gripe Aviar/epidemiología , Animales , Gripe Aviar/mortalidad , Gripe Aviar/virología , Modelos TeóricosRESUMEN
Premovement active surveillance for low pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) may be a useful risk management tool for producers during high-risk periods, such as during an LPAI outbreak, or in areas where there is a recognized high risk for LPAI spread. The effectiveness of three active-surveillance protocols in mitigating LPAI spread risk related to the movement of spent broiler breeders to processing was evaluated in this study. Each protocol differed in the amount of real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RRT-PCR) and serology testing conducted. The protocols were evaluated with the use of disease transmission and active surveillance simulation models parametrized specifically for broiler breeders to estimate the probability of detecting a current or past infection and the mean proportion of infectious birds at the time of sampling in houses where the infection remains undetected at the time of movement after exposure to the virus. The two values were estimated considering flock infection for 1-28 days prior to the day of scheduled movement. A distribution for the adequate contact rate, a parameter that controls the rate of within-house spread in the disease transmission model, was estimated for this study by a novel forward simulation approach with the use of serology data from three LPAI-infected broiler breeder flocks in the United States. The estimated distribution suggests that the lower contact-rate estimates from previously published studies were not a good fit for the serology results observed in these U.S. flocks, though considerable uncertainty remains in the parameter estimate. The results for the probability of detection and mean proportion of infectious, undetected birds suggest that RRT-PCR testing is most beneficial during the early stages of infection postexposure, and serology testing is most beneficial during the later stages of infection, results that are expected to hold for flocks outside the United States as well. Thus, protocols that combine RRT-PCR and serology testing can offer a more balanced approach with good performance over the disease course in a flock.
Evaluación del efecto de la tasa de transmisión dentro de la parvada en la vigilancia activa previa al movimiento de parvadas infectadas por influenza aviar de baja patogenicidad. La vigilancia activa para la influenza aviar de baja patogenicidad (LPAI) previa al movimiento puede ser una herramienta útil en el manejo de riesgos para los productores durante períodos de alto riesgo, como durante un brote de influenza aviar de baja patogenicidad o en áreas donde se reconoce que existe un alto riesgo de propagación de esta enfermedad. En este estudio, se evaluó la efectividad de tres protocolos de vigilancia activa para mitigar el riesgo de propagación de la influenza aviar de baja patogenicidad relacionado con el movimiento de los reproductores pesados de desecho a la planta de procesamiento. Los protocolos diferían en la cantidad de muestras procesadas por la transcriptasa reversa y reacción en cadena de la polimerasa en tiempo real (rRT-PCR) y por las pruebas serológicas realizadas. Los protocolos se evaluaron utilizando modelos de simulación de vigilancia activa y transmisión de la enfermedad con parámetros específicamente para reproductores pesados, para estimar la probabilidad de detectar una infección actual o pasada y la proporción media de aves con infección activa al momento del muestreo en casetas donde la infección permanecía sin detectar al momento del movimiento después de la exposición al virus. Los dos valores se estimaron considerando la infección de la parvada de uno a 28 días antes de la fecha programada para el movimiento. Una distribución para la tasa de contacto adecuada, un parámetro que controla la tasa de propagación dentro de la caseta en el modelo de transmisión de la enfermedad, se estimó para este estudio mediante un novedoso enfoque de simulación directa utilizando datos serológicos de tres parvadas reproductores pesados infectados con influenza aviar de baja patogenicidad en los Estados Unidos. La distribución estimada sugiere que las estimaciones de la tasa de contacto más baja obtenida de los estudios publicados previamente no fueron una buena opción para los resultados serológicos observados en estas parvadas en los Estados Unidos, aunque sigue existiendo una gran incertidumbre en la estimación del parámetro. Los resultados de la probabilidad de detección y la proporción media de aves con infección no detectadas sugieren que la prueba rRT-PCR es más beneficiosa durante las primeras etapas de la infección después de la exposición, mientras que la serología es más beneficiosa durante las últimas etapas de la infección, resultados que se espera apliquen también para parvadas fuera de los Estados Unidos. Por lo tanto, los protocolos que combinan rRT-PCR y las pruebas de serología pueden ofrecer un enfoque más equilibrado con un buen rendimiento durante el curso de la enfermedad en una parvada.
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Pollos , Brotes de Enfermedades/veterinaria , Monitoreo Epidemiológico/veterinaria , Gripe Aviar/transmisión , Enfermedades de las Aves de Corral/transmisión , Animales , Gripe Aviar/epidemiología , Gripe Aviar/virología , Modelos Teóricos , Enfermedades de las Aves de Corral/epidemiología , Enfermedades de las Aves de Corral/virología , Estados Unidos/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
Producing a smaller yield of higher-value birds compared to conventional poultry production, the U.S. commercial upland game bird industry deals primarily in the sale of live birds for recreational hunting. In this study, our aims were to gain insights into the occurrence of avian influenza (AI) in the U.S. commercial upland game bird industry in comparison to other poultry sectors, to identify the presence of the specific AI risk factors in the practices of raising ducks on site and having connections to live bird markets (LBMs), and to assess how AI surveillance systems may have played a role in the reporting of the presence of exposure pathway-related information. We found that 23 AI epizootics involving upland game bird premises were reported, compared to 485 epizootics in the other poultry industries, and 86% of epizootics involving upland game birds were limited to only one premises. Regarding specific AI risk factors, 70% of upland game bird epizootics involved one of the two examined practices. In assessing the impact of surveillance systems, data framed around the implementation of surveillance systems revealed that the introduction of active surveillance coincided with the more thorough reporting of both the raising of ducks on site and premises having connections to LBMs. Our results suggest the need for more thorough data collection during epizootics and the need to assess additional exposure pathways specific to the commercial raise-for-release upland game bird industry.
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Crianza de Animales Domésticos/métodos , Epidemias/veterinaria , Monitoreo Epidemiológico/veterinaria , Galliformes , Gripe Aviar/epidemiología , Animales , Incidencia , Gripe Aviar/virología , Vigilancia de la Población/métodos , Factores de Riesgo , Estados Unidos/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Timely diagnosis of influenza A virus infections is critical for outbreak control. Due to their rapidity and other logistical advantages, lateral flow immunoassays can support influenza A virus surveillance programs and here, their field performance was proactively assessed. The performance of real-time polymerase chain reaction and two lateral flow immunoassay kits (FluDETECT and VetScan) in detecting low pathogenicity influenza A virus in oropharyngeal swab samples from experimentally inoculated broiler chickens was evaluated and at a flock-level, different testing scenarios were analyzed. RESULTS: For real-time polymerase chain reaction positive individual-swabs, FluDETECT respectively detected 37% and 58% for the H5 and H7 LPAIV compared to 28% and 42% for VetScan. The mean virus titer in H7 samples was higher than for H5 samples. For real-time polymerase chain reaction positive pooled swabs (containing one positive), detections by FluDETECT were significantly higher in the combined 5- and 6-swab samples compared to 11-swab samples. FluDETECT detected 58%, 55.1% and 44.9% for the H7 subtype and 28.3%, 34.0% and 24.6% for the H5 in pools of 5, 6 and 11 respectively. In our testing scenario analysis, at low flock-level LPAIV infection prevalence, testing pools of 11 detected slightly more infections while at higher prevalence, testing pools of 5 or 6 performed better. For highly pathogenic avian influenza virus, testing pools of 11 (versus 5 or 6) detected up to 5% more infections under the assumption of similar sensitivity across pools and detected less by 3% when its sensitivity was assumed to be lower. CONCLUSIONS: Much as pooling a bigger number of swab samples increases the chances of having a positive swab included in the sample to be tested, this study's outcomes indicate that this practice may actually reduce the chances of detecting the virus since it may result into lowering the virus titer of the pooled sample. Further analysis on whether having more than one positive swab in a pooled sample would result in increased sensitivity for low pathogenicity avian influenza virus is needed.
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Pollos/virología , Virus de la Influenza A/aislamiento & purificación , Manejo de Especímenes/veterinaria , Animales , Inmunoensayo/veterinaria , Gripe Aviar/virología , Orofaringe/virología , Reacción en Cadena en Tiempo Real de la Polimerasa/veterinaria , Manejo de Especímenes/métodosRESUMEN
The spatial spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N2 during the 2015 outbreak in the U.S. state of Minnesota was analyzed through the estimation of a spatial transmission kernel, which quantifies the infection hazard an infectious premises poses to an uninfected premises some given distance away. Parameters were estimated using a maximum likelihood method for the entire outbreak as well as for two phases defined by the daily number of newly detected HPAI-positive premises. The results indicate both a strong dependence of the likelihood of transmission on distance and a significant distance-independent component of outbreak spread for the overall outbreak. The results further suggest that HPAI spread differed during the later phase of the outbreak. The estimated spatial transmission kernel was used to compare the Minnesota outbreak with previous HPAI outbreaks in the Netherlands and Italy to contextualize the Minnesota transmission kernel results and make additional inferences about HPAI transmission during the Minnesota outbreak. Lastly, the spatial transmission kernel was used to identify high risk areas for HPAI spread in Minnesota. Risk maps were also used to evaluate the potential impact of an early marketing strategy implemented by poultry producers in a county in Minnesota during the outbreak, with results providing evidence that the strategy was successful in reducing the potential for HPAI spread.
Asunto(s)
Subtipo H5N2 del Virus de la Influenza A/aislamiento & purificación , Gripe Aviar/epidemiología , Animales , Brotes de Enfermedades , Subtipo H5N2 del Virus de la Influenza A/patogenicidad , Gripe Aviar/transmisión , Gripe Aviar/virología , Funciones de Verosimilitud , Minnesota/epidemiología , Modelos Teóricos , Aves de CorralRESUMEN
Risk management decisions associated with live poultry movement during a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak should be carefully considered. Live turkey movements may pose a risk for disease spread. On the other hand, interruptions in scheduled movements can disrupt business continuity. The Secure Turkey Supply (STS) Plan was developed through an industry-government-academic collaboration to address business continuity concerns that might arise during a HPAI outbreak. STS stakeholders proposed outbreak response measure options that were evaluated through risk assessment. The developed approach relies on 1) diagnostic testing of two pooled samples of swabs taken from dead turkeys immediately before movement via the influenza A matrix gene real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) test; 2) enhanced biosecurity measures in combination with a premovement isolation period (PMIP), restricting movement onto the premises for a few days before movement to slaughter; and 3) incorporation of a distance factor from known infected flocks such that exposure via local area spread is unlikely. Daily exposure likelihood estimates from spatial kernels from past HPAI outbreaks were coupled with simulation models of disease spread and active surveillance to evaluate active surveillance protocol options that differ with respect to the number of swabs per pooled sample and the timing of the tests in relation to movement. Simulation model results indicate that active surveillance testing, in combination with strict biosecurity, substantially increased HPAI virus detection probability. When distance from a known infected flock was considered, the overall combined likelihood of moving an infected, undetected turkey flock to slaughter was predicted to be lower at 3 and 5 km. The analysis of different active surveillance protocol options is designed to incorporate flexibility into HPAI emergency response plans.