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Vaccination has played a major role in overcoming the COVID-19 pandemic. However, vaccination status can be influenced by demographic and socio-economic factors at individual and area level. In the context of the LINK-VACC project, the Belgian vaccine register for the COVID-19 vaccination campaign was linked at individual level with other registers, notably the COVID-19 laboratory test results and demographic and socio-economic variables from the DEMOBEL database. The present article aims at investigating to which extent COVID-19 vaccination status is associated with area level and/or individual level demographic and socio-economic factors. From a sample of all individuals tested for SARS-CoV-2 (LINK-VACC sample) demographic and socio-economic indicators are derived and their impact on vaccination coverages at an aggregated geographical level (municipality) is quantified. The same indicators are calculated for the full Belgian population, allowing to assess the representativeness of the LINK-VACC sample with respect to the impact of demographic and socio-economic disparities on vaccination uptake. In a second step, hierarchical models are fitted to the individual level LINK-VACC data to disentangle the individual and municipality effects allowing to evaluate the added value of the availability of individual level data in this context. The most important effects observed at the individual level are reflected in the aggregated data at the municipality level. Multilevel analyses show that most of the demographic and socio-economic impacts on vaccination are captured at the individual level, although accounting for area level in individual level analyses improve the overall description.
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Using a common protocol across seven countries in the European Union/European Economic Area, we estimated XBB.1.5 monovalent vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19 hospitalisation and death in booster-eligible ≥ 65-year-olds, during October-November 2023. We linked electronic records to construct retrospective cohorts and used Cox models to estimate adjusted hazard ratios and derive VE. VE for COVID-19 hospitalisation and death was, respectively, 67% (95%CI: 58-74) and 67% (95%CI: 42-81) in 65- to 79-year-olds and 66% (95%CI: 57-73) and 72% (95%CI: 51-85) in ≥ 80-year-olds. Results indicate that periodic vaccination of individuals ≥ 65 years has an ongoing benefit and support current vaccination strategies in the EU/EEA.
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Vacunas contra la COVID-19 , COVID-19 , Unión Europea , Hospitalización , SARS-CoV-2 , Eficacia de las Vacunas , Humanos , COVID-19/prevención & control , COVID-19/epidemiología , Anciano , Masculino , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Femenino , Vacunas contra la COVID-19/inmunología , Vacunas contra la COVID-19/administración & dosificación , Estudios Retrospectivos , Hospitalización/estadística & datos numéricos , SARS-CoV-2/inmunología , Vacunación/estadística & datos numéricos , Europa (Continente)/epidemiología , Registros Electrónicos de SaludRESUMEN
Since the end of November 2023, the European Mortality Monitoring Network (EuroMOMO) has observed excess mortality in Europe. During weeks 48 2023-6 2024, preliminary results show a substantially increased rate of 95.3 (95%â¯CI:â¯â¯91.7-98.9) excess all-cause deaths per 100,000 person-years for all ages. This excess mortality is seen in adults aged 45 years and older, and coincides with widespread presence of COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) observed in many European countries during the 2023/24 winter season.
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COVID-19 , Gripe Humana , Infecciones por Virus Sincitial Respiratorio , Virus Sincitial Respiratorio Humano , Adulto , Humanos , Gripe Humana/epidemiología , Europa (Continente)/epidemiología , Estaciones del Año , Infecciones por Virus Sincitial Respiratorio/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
To monitor relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) against COVID-19-related hospitalisation of the first, second and third COVID-19 booster (vs complete primary vaccination), we performed monthly Cox regression models using retrospective cohorts constructed from electronic health registries in eight European countries, October 2021-July 2023. Within 12â¯weeks of administration, each booster showed high rVE (≥ 70% for second and third boosters). However, as of July 2023, most of the relative benefit has waned, particularly in persons ≥ 80-years-old, while some protection remained in 65-79-year-olds.
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COVID-19 , Humanos , Anciano de 80 o más Años , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/prevención & control , Estudios Retrospectivos , Eficacia de las Vacunas , Europa (Continente)/epidemiología , HospitalizaciónRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Within the ECDC-VEBIS project, we prospectively monitored vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19 hospitalisation and COVID-19-related death using electronic health registries (EHR), between October 2021 and November 2022, in community-dwelling residents aged 65-79 and ≥80 years in six European countries. METHODS: EHR linkage was used to construct population cohorts in Belgium, Denmark, Luxembourg, Navarre (Spain), Norway and Portugal. Using a common protocol, for each outcome, VE was estimated monthly over 8-week follow-up periods, allowing 1 month-lag for data consolidation. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and VE = (1 - aHR) × 100%. Site-specific estimates were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: For ≥80 years, considering unvaccinated as the reference, VE against COVID-19 hospitalisation decreased from 66.9% (95% CI: 60.1; 72.6) to 36.1% (95% CI: -27.3; 67.9) for the primary vaccination and from 95.6% (95% CI: 88.0; 98.4) to 67.7% (95% CI: 45.9; 80.8) for the first booster. Similar trends were observed for 65-79 years. The second booster VE against hospitalisation ranged between 82.0% (95% CI: 75.9; 87.0) and 83.9% (95% CI: 77.7; 88.4) for the ≥80 years and between 39.3% (95% CI: -3.9; 64.5) and 80.6% (95% CI: 67.2; 88.5) for 65-79 years. The first booster VE against COVID-19-related death declined over time for both age groups, while the second booster VE against death remained above 80% for the ≥80 years. CONCLUSIONS: Successive vaccine boosters played a relevant role in maintaining protection against COVID-19 hospitalisation and death, in the context of decreasing VE over time. Multicountry data from EHR facilitate robust near-real-time VE monitoring in the EU/EEA and support public health decision-making.
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Vacunas contra la COVID-19 , COVID-19 , Humanos , Anciano , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/prevención & control , Eficacia de las Vacunas , Sistema de Registros , Electrónica , HospitalizaciónRESUMEN
BackgroundThe Belgian COVID-19 vaccination campaign aimed to reduce disease spread and severity.AimWe estimated SARS-CoV-2 variant-specific vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection (VEi) and hospitalisation (VEh), given time since vaccination and prior infection.MethodsNationwide healthcare records from July 2021 to May 2022 on testing and vaccination were combined with a clinical hospital survey. We used a test-negative design and proportional hazard regression to estimate VEi and VEh, controlling for prior infection, time since vaccination, age, sex, residence and calendar week of sampling.ResultsWe included 1,932,546 symptomatic individuals, of whom 734,115 tested positive. VEi against Delta waned from an initial estimate of 80% (95%â¯confidence interval (CI):â¯80-81) to 55% (95%â¯CI:â¯54-55) 100-150 days after the primary vaccination course. Booster vaccination increased initial VEi to 85% (95%â¯CI:â¯84-85). Against Omicron, an initial VEi of 33% (95%â¯CI:â¯30-36) waned to 17% (95%â¯CI:â¯15-18), while booster vaccination increased VEi to 50% (95%â¯CI:â¯49-50), which waned to 20% (95%â¯CI:â¯19-21) 100-150 days after vaccination. Initial VEh for booster vaccination decreased from 96% (95%â¯CI:â¯95-96) against Delta to 87% (95%â¯CI:â¯86-89) against Omicron. VEh against Omicron waned to 73% (95%â¯CI:â¯71-75) 100-150 days after booster vaccination. While recent prior infections conferred higher protection, infections occurring before 2021 remained associated with significant risk reduction against symptomatic infection. Vaccination and prior infection outperformed vaccination or prior infection only.ConclusionWe report waning and a significant decrease in VEi and VEh from Delta to Omicron-dominant periods. Booster vaccination and prior infection attenuated these effects.
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Vacunas contra la COVID-19 , COVID-19 , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2 , Bélgica/epidemiología , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/prevención & control , Eficacia de las Vacunas , HospitalizaciónRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: Vaccine effectiveness against transmission (VET) of SARS-CoV-2-infection can be estimated from secondary attack rates observed during contact tracing. We estimated VET, the vaccine-effect on infectiousness of the index case and susceptibility of the high-risk exposure contact (HREC). METHODS: We fitted RT-PCR-test results from HREC to immunity status (vaccine schedule, prior infection, time since last immunity-conferring event), age, sex, calendar week of sampling, household, background positivity rate and dominant VOC using a multilevel Bayesian regression-model. We included Belgian data collected between January 2021 and January 2022. RESULTS: For primary BNT162b2-vaccination we estimated initial VET at 96% (95%CI 95-97) against Alpha, 87% (95%CI 84-88) against Delta and 31% (95%CI 25-37) against Omicron. Initial VET of booster-vaccination (mRNA primary and booster-vaccination) was 87% (95%CI 86-89) against Delta and 68% (95%CI 65-70) against Omicron. The VET-estimate against Delta and Omicron decreased to 71% (95%CI 64-78) and 55% (95%CI 46-62) respectively, 150-200 days after booster-vaccination. Hybrid immunity, defined as vaccination and documented prior infection, was associated with durable and higher or comparable (by number of antigen exposures) protection against transmission. CONCLUSIONS: While we observed VOC-specific immune-escape, especially by Omicron, and waning over time since immunization, vaccination remained associated with a reduced risk of SARS-CoV-2-transmission.
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COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/prevención & control , SARS-CoV-2 , Vacuna BNT162 , Teorema de Bayes , Bélgica/epidemiología , Trazado de Contacto , Eficacia de las Vacunas , Inmunización SecundariaRESUMEN
We investigated effectiveness of (1) mRNA booster vaccination versus primary vaccination only and (2) heterologous (viral vector-mRNA) versus homologous (mRNA-mRNA) prime-boost vaccination against severe outcomes of BA.1, BA.2, BA.4 or BA.5 Omicron infection (confirmed by whole genome sequencing) among hospitalized COVID-19 patients using observational data from national COVID-19 registries. In addition, it was investigated whether the difference between the heterologous and homologous prime-boost vaccination was homogenous across Omicron sub-lineages. Regression standardization (parametric g-formula) was used to estimate counterfactual risks for severe COVID-19 (combination of severity indicators), intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and in-hospital mortality under exposure to different vaccination schedules. The estimated risk for severe COVID-19 and in-hospital mortality was significantly lower with an mRNA booster vaccination as compared to only a primary vaccination schedule (RR = 0.59 [0.33; 0.85] and RR = 0.47 [0.15; 0.79], respectively). No significance difference was observed in the estimated risk for severe COVID-19, ICU admission and in-hospital mortality with a heterologous compared to a homologous prime-boost vaccination schedule, and this difference was not significantly modified by the Omicron sub-lineage. Our results support evidence that mRNA booster vaccination reduced the risk of severe COVID-19 disease during the Omicron-predominant period.
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We investigated the serial interval for SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 and Delta variants and observed a shorter serial interval for Omicron, suggesting faster transmission. Results indicate a relationship between empirical serial interval and vaccination status for both variants. Further assessment of the causes and extent of Omicron dominance over Delta is warranted.
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COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Bélgica/epidemiología , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/virología , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2/genética , Vacunación/estadística & datos numéricosRESUMEN
This retrospective multi-center matched cohort study assessed the risk for severe COVID-19 (combination of severity indicators), intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and in-hospital mortality in hospitalized patients when infected with the Omicron variant compared to when infected with the Delta variant. The study is based on a causal framework using individually-linked data from national COVID-19 registries. The study population consisted of 954 COVID-19 patients (of which, 445 were infected with Omicron) above 18 years old admitted to a Belgian hospital during the autumn and winter season 2021-2022, and with available viral genomic data. Patients were matched based on the hospital, whereas other possible confounders (demographics, comorbidities, vaccination status, socio-economic status, and ICU occupancy) were adjusted for by using a multivariable logistic regression analysis. The estimated standardized risk for severe COVID-19 and ICU admission in hospitalized patients was significantly lower (RR = 0.63; 95% CI (0.30; 0.97) and RR = 0.56; 95% CI (0.14; 0.99), respectively) when infected with the Omicron variant, whereas in-hospital mortality was not significantly different according to the SARS-CoV-2 variant (RR = 0.78, 95% CI (0.28-1.29)). This study demonstrates the added value of integrated genomic and clinical surveillance to recognize the multifactorial nature of COVID-19 pathogenesis.
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COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Adolescente , Bélgica/epidemiología , COVID-19/epidemiología , Estudios de Cohortes , Humanos , Estudios Retrospectivos , SARS-CoV-2/genética , Estaciones del AñoRESUMEN
The objective of this study was to investigate the incidence and risk factors associated with COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infections. We included all persons ≥18 years that had been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 for ≥14 days, between 1 February 2021 and 5 December 2021, in Belgium. The incidence of breakthrough infections (laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2-infections) was determined. Factors associated with breakthrough infections were analyzed using COX proportional hazard models. Among 8,062,600 fully vaccinated adults, we identified 373,070 breakthrough infections with an incidence of 11.2 (95%CI 11.2-11.3)/100 person years. Vaccination with Ad26.COV2.S (HR1.54, 95%CI 1.52-1.56) or ChAdOx1 (HR1.68, 95%CI 1.66-1.69) was associated with a higher risk of a breakthrough infection compared to BNT162b2, while mRNA-1273 was associated with a lower risk (HR0.68, 95%CI 0.67-0.69). A prior COVID-19-infection was protective against a breakthrough infection (HR0.23, 95%CI 0.23-0.24), as was an mRNA booster (HR0.44, 95%CI 0.43-0.45). During a breakthrough infection, those who had a prior COVID-19 infection were less likely to have COVID-19 symptoms of almost all types than naïve persons. We identified risk factors associated with breakthrough infections, such as vaccination with adenoviral-vector vaccines, which could help inform future decisions on booster vaccination strategies. A prior COVID-19 infection lowered the risk of breakthrough infections and of having symptoms, highlighting the protective effect of hybrid immunity.
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Vacunas contra la COVID-19 , COVID-19 , Ad26COVS1 , Adulto , Vacuna BNT162 , Bélgica/epidemiología , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/prevención & control , Humanos , Incidencia , Estudios Prospectivos , Factores de Riesgo , SARS-CoV-2/genéticaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: During the first half of 2021, we observed high vaccine effectiveness (VE) against SARS-CoV2-infection. The replacement of the alpha-'variant of concern' (VOC) by the delta-VOC and uncertainty about the time course of immunity called for a re-assessment. METHODS: We estimated VE against transmission of infection (VET) from Belgian contact tracing data for high-risk exposure contacts between 26/01/2021 and 14/12/2021 by susceptibility (VEs) and infectiousness of breakthrough cases (VEi) for a complete schedule of Ad26.COV2.S, ChAdOx1, BNT162b2, mRNA-1273 as well as infection-acquired and hybrid immunity. We used a multilevel Bayesian model and adjusted for personal characteristics (age, sex, household), background exposure, calendar week, VOC and time since immunity conferring-event. FINDINGS: VET-estimates were higher for mRNA-vaccines, over 90%, compared to viral vector vaccines: 66% and 80% for Ad26COV2.S and ChAdOx1 respectively (Alpha, 0-50 days after vaccination). Delta was associated with a 40% increase in odds of transmission and a decrease of VEs (72-64%) and especially of VEi (71-46% for BNT162b2). Infection-acquired and hybrid immunity were less affected by Delta. Waning further reduced VET-estimates: from 81% to 63% for BNT162b2 (Delta, 150-200 days after vaccination). We observed lower initial VEi in the age group 65-84 years (32% vs 46% in the age group 45-64 years for BNT162b2) and faster waning. Hybrid immunity waned slower than vaccine-induced immunity. INTERPRETATION: VEi and VEs-estimates, while remaining significant, were reduced by Delta and waned over time. We observed faster waning in the oldest age group. We should seek to improve vaccine-induced protection in older persons and those vaccinated with viral-vector vaccines.
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COVID-19 , Vacunas , Ad26COVS1 , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Vacuna BNT162 , Teorema de Bayes , Bélgica/epidemiología , COVID-19/prevención & control , Trazado de Contacto , Humanos , Persona de Mediana Edad , ARN Viral , SARS-CoV-2 , Vacunación , Eficacia de las VacunasRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Contact tracing is one of the main public health tools in the control of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). A centralized contact tracing system was developed in Belgium in 2020. We aim to evaluate the performance and describe the results, between January 01, 2021, and September 30, 2021. The characteristics of COVID-19 cases and the impact of COVID-19 vaccination on testing and tracing are also described. METHODS: We combined laboratory diagnostic test data (molecular and antigen test), vaccination data, and contact tracing data. A descriptive analysis was done to evaluate the performance of contact tracing and describe insights into the epidemiology of COVID-19 by contact tracing. RESULTS: Between January and September 2021, 555.181 COVID-19 cases were reported to the central contact center and 91% were contacted. The average delay between symptom onset and contact tracing initiation was around 5 days, of which 4 days corresponded to pre-testing delay. High-Risk Contacts (HRC) were reported by 49% of the contacted index cases. The mean number of reported HRC was 2.7. In total, 666.869 HRC were reported of which 91% were successfully contacted and 89% of these were tested at least once following the interview. The estimated average secondary attack rate (SAR) among the contacts of the COVID-19 cases who reported at least one contact, was 27% and was significantly higher among household HRC. The proportion of COVID-19 cases who were previously identified as HRC within the central system was 24%. CONCLUSIONS: The contact-tracing system contacted more than 90% of the reported COVID-19 cases and their HRC. This proportion remained stable between January 1 2021 and September 30 2021 despite an increase in cases in March-April 2021. We report high SAR, indicating that through contact tracing a large number of infections were prospectively detected. The system can be further improved by (1) reducing the delay between onset of illness and medical consultation (2) having more exhaustive reporting of HRC by the COVID-19 case.
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In Belgium, high-risk contacts of an infected person were offered PCR-testing irrespective of their vaccination status. We estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) against infection and onwards transmission, controlling for previous infections, household-exposure and temporal trends. We included 301,741 tests from 25 January to 24 June 2021. Full-schedule vaccination was associated with significant protection against infection. In addition, mRNA-vaccines reduced onward transmission: VE-estimates increased to >90% when index and contact were fully vaccinated. The small number of viral-vector vaccines included limited interpretability.
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COVID-19 , Vacunas , Bélgica/epidemiología , Trazado de Contacto , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: National public health agencies are required to prioritise infectious diseases for prevention and control. We applied the prioritisation method recommended by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control to rank infectious diseases, according to their relative importance for surveillance and public health, to inform future public health action in Belgium. METHODS: We applied the multi-criteria-decision-analysis approach. A working group of epidemiologists and statisticians from Belgium (n = 6) designed a balanced set of prioritisation criteria. A panel of Belgian experts (n = 80) allocated in an online survey each criteria a weight, according to perceived relative importance. Next, experts (n = 37) scored each disease against each criteria in an online survey, guided by disease-specific factsheets referring the period 2010-2016 in Belgium. The weighted sum of the criteria's scores composed the final weighted score per disease, on which the ranking was based. Sensitivity analyses quantified the impact of eight alternative analysis scenarios on the top-20 ranked diseases. We identified criteria and diseases associated with data-gaps as those with the highest number of blank answers in the scoring survey. Principle components of the final weighted score were identified. RESULTS: Working groups selected 98 diseases and 18 criteria, structured in five criteria groups. The diseases ranked highest were (in order) pertussis, human immunodeficiency virus infection, hepatitis C and hepatitis B. Among the five criteria groups, overall the highest weights were assigned to 'impact on the patient', followed by 'impact on public health', while different perceptions were identified between clinicians, microbiologists and epidemiologists. Among the 18 individual criteria, 'spreading potential' and 'events requiring public health action' were assigned the highest weights. Principle components clustered with thematic disease groups. Notable data gaps were found among hospital-related diseases. CONCLUSIONS: We ranked infectious diseases using a standardised reproducible approach. The diseases ranked highest are included in current public health programs, but additional reflection for example about needs among risk groups is recommended. Cross-reference of the obtained ranking with current programs is needed to verify whether resources and activities map priority areas. We recommend to implement this method in a recurrent evaluation cycle of national public health priorities.
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Enfermedades Transmisibles , Bélgica/epidemiología , Enfermedades Transmisibles/epidemiología , Técnicas de Apoyo para la Decisión , Prioridades en Salud , Humanos , Salud Pública , Encuestas y CuestionariosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Ten-valent and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have shown important benefits by decreasing invasive pneumococcal disease caused by vaccine serotypes. Belgium had an uncommon situation with sequential use of PCV7, PCV13, and PCV10 in the childhood vaccination programmes between 2007 and 2018. We aimed to analyse the changes in incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease and serotype distribution in children throughout this period. METHODS: Streptococcus pneumoniae isolates were obtained from patients with invasive pneumococcal disease in Belgium between 2007 and 2018 by the national laboratory-based surveillance. Paediatric invasive pneumococcal disease incidence, serotype distribution, and antimicrobial susceptibility were analysed in periods during which PCV7 (2009-10), PCV13 (2013-14), both PCV13 and PCV10 (2015-16), and PCV10 (2017-18) were used. Incidence rates and trends were compared. Vaccination status was collected. For a subset of serotype 19A isolates, multilocus sequence type was identified. FINDINGS: After a decrease in PCV7 serotype invasive pneumococcal disease was observed during the PCV7 period, total paediatric invasive pneumococcal disease incidence significantly declined during the PCV13 period (-2·6% monthly, p<0·0001). During the PCV13-PCV10 period (2015-16), the lowest mean in paediatric invasive pneumococcal disease incidence was achieved, but the incidence increased again during the PCV10 period (2017-18), especially in children younger than 2 years (+1·7% monthly; p=0·028). This increase was mainly due to a significant rise in serotype 19A invasive pneumococcal disease incidence in the PCV10 period compared with the PCV13 period (p<0·0001), making serotype 19A the predominant serotype in paediatric invasive pneumococcal disease in the PCV10 period. Genetic diversity within the 2017-18 serotype 19A collection was seen, with two predominant clones, ST416 and ST994, that were infrequently observed before PCV10 introduction. In 2018, among children younger than 5 years with invasive pneumococcal disease who were correctly vaccinated, 37% (37 of 100) had PCV13 serotype invasive pneumococcal disease, all caused by serotype 19A and serotype 3. INTERPRETATION: After a significant decrease during the PCV13 period, paediatric invasive pneumococcal disease incidence increased again during the PCV10 period. This observation mainly resulted from a significant increase of serotype 19A cases. During the PCV10 period, dominant serotype 19A clones differed from those detected during previous vaccine periods. Whether changes in epidemiology resulted from the vaccine switch or also from natural evolution remains to be further elucidated. FUNDING: The Belgian National Reference is funded by the Belgian National Institute for Health and Disability Insurance and the whole genome sequencing by an investigator-initiated research grant from Pfizer.
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Programas de Inmunización/estadística & datos numéricos , Programas de Inmunización/tendencias , Infecciones Neumocócicas/epidemiología , Infecciones Neumocócicas/prevención & control , Vacunas Neumococicas/administración & dosificación , Vacunas Conjugadas/administración & dosificación , Adolescente , Factores de Edad , Bélgica/epidemiología , Niño , Preescolar , Femenino , Predicción , Humanos , Incidencia , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Masculino , Estudios Retrospectivos , Vigilancia de GuardiaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 mortality rate in Belgium has been ranked among the highest in the world. To assess the appropriateness of the country's COVID-19 mortality surveillance, that includes long-term care facilities deaths and deaths in possible cases, the number of COVID-19 deaths was compared with the number of deaths from all-cause mortality. Mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic was also compared with historical mortality rates from the last century including those of the Spanish influenza pandemic. METHODS: Excess mortality predictions and COVID-19 mortality data were analysed for the period March 10th to June 21st 2020. The number of COVID-19 deaths and the COVID-19 mortality rate per million were calculated for hospitals, nursing homes and other places of death, according to diagnostic status (confirmed/possible infection). To evaluate historical mortality, monthly mortality rates were calculated from January 1900 to June 2020. RESULTS: Nine thousand five hundred ninety-one COVID-19 deaths and 39,076 deaths from all-causes were recorded, with a correlation of 94% (Spearman's rho, p < 0,01). During the period with statistically significant excess mortality (March 20th to April 28th; total excess mortality 64.7%), 7917 excess deaths were observed among the 20,159 deaths from all-causes. In the same period, 7576 COVID-19 deaths were notified, indicating that 96% of the excess mortality were likely attributable to COVID-19. The inclusion of deaths in nursing homes doubled the COVID-19 mortality rate, while adding deaths in possible cases increased it by 27%. Deaths in laboratory-confirmed cases accounted for 69% of total COVID-19-related deaths and 43% of in-hospital deaths. Although the number of deaths was historically high, the monthly mortality rate was lower in April 2020 compared to the major fatal events of the last century. CONCLUSIONS: Trends in all-cause mortality during the first wave of the epidemic was a key indicator to validate the Belgium's high COVID-19 mortality figures. A COVID-19 mortality surveillance limited to deaths from hospitalised and selected laboratory-confirmed cases would have underestimated the magnitude of the epidemic. Excess mortality, daily and monthly number of deaths in Belgium were historically high classifying undeniably the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic as a fatal event.
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A remarkable excess mortality has coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. We present preliminary pooled estimates of all-cause mortality for 24 European countries/federal states participating in the European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action (EuroMOMO) network, for the period March-April 2020. Excess mortality particularly affected ≥ 65 year olds (91% of all excess deaths), but also 45-64 (8%) and 15-44 year olds (1%). No excess mortality was observed in 0-14 year olds.
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Causas de Muerte/tendencias , Infecciones por Coronavirus/mortalidad , Coronavirus/aislamiento & purificación , Gripe Humana/mortalidad , Neumonía Viral/mortalidad , Adolescente , Adulto , Distribución por Edad , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Betacoronavirus , COVID-19 , Niño , Preescolar , Infecciones por Coronavirus/diagnóstico , Brotes de Enfermedades , Europa (Continente)/epidemiología , Femenino , Humanos , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Gripe Humana/diagnóstico , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Mortalidad/tendencias , Pandemias , Neumonía Viral/diagnóstico , Vigilancia de la Población , Datos Preliminares , SARS-CoV-2 , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The Accelerated Development of VAccine beNefit-risk Collaboration in Europe (ADVANCE) is a public-private collaboration aiming to develop and test a system for rapid benefit-risk monitoring of vaccines using existing healthcare databases in Europe. We estimated vaccine coverage from electronic healthcare databases as part of a fit-for-purpose assessment for vaccine benefit-risk studies. METHODS: A retrospective dynamic cohort study was conducted through a distributed network approach. Coverage with measles-vaccine for birth year 2006, human papillomavirus (HPV)-vaccine for birth years 1990-2000 and influenza-vaccine for birth years 1920-1950 was estimated using period-prevalence and inverse probability weighting methods. Seven databases from four countries participated: Italy (Pedianet, Val Padana), Spain (BIFAP, SIDIAP), UK (RCGP-RSC, THIN), Denmark (SSI/AUH). Database access providers extracted the data, transformed it into a common structure and ran an R-script locally. The created output tables were shared and pooled at a central server. RESULTS: The total study population comprised 274,616 persons for measles-vaccine, 2,011,666 persons for HPV-vaccine and 14,904,033 persons for influenza-vaccine. Measles-vaccine coverage varied from 84.3% (Denmark) to 96.5% (Italy, Val Padana) for the first dose and from 82.8% (Italy, Val Padana) to 90.9% (UK) for the second dose at the age of 7 years. The HPV-vaccine coverage, aggregated over birth years 1997-2000, ranged from 60% (UK) to 88.3% (Denmark) at the age of 15 years. The influenza-vaccine coverage for the influenza seasons from 2009 to 2015 for persons aged 65 years and more was roughly stable around 43% in Denmark and around 68% in the UK while a decrease from 58 to 50% was observed in Catalonia (Spain). CONCLUSIONS: We obtained detailed, age-specific coverage estimates though a common procedure. We discussed between database comparability and comparability to published national estimates.
Asunto(s)
Alphapapillomavirus , Gripe Humana , Sarampión , Vacunas contra Papillomavirus , Adolescente , Factores de Edad , Anciano , Niño , Estudios de Cohortes , Atención a la Salud , Europa (Continente)/epidemiología , Humanos , Gripe Humana/epidemiología , Gripe Humana/prevención & control , Italia/epidemiología , Papillomaviridae , Vacuna contra la Tos Ferina , Estudios Retrospectivos , España , Vacunación , Cobertura de VacunaciónRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: The public-private ADVANCE consortium (Accelerated development of vaccine benefit-risk collaboration in Europe) aimed to assess if electronic healthcare databases can provide fit-for purpose data for collaborative, distributed studies and monitoring of vaccine coverage, benefits and risks of vaccines. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate if European healthcare databases can be used to estimate vaccine coverage, benefit and/or risk using pertussis-containing vaccines as an example. METHODS: Characterisation was conducted using open-source Java-based (Jerboa) software and R scripts. We obtained: (i) The general characteristics of the database and data source (meta-data) and (ii) a detailed description of the database population (size, representatively of age/sex of national population, rounding of birth dates, delay between birth and database entry), vaccinations (number of vaccine doses, recording of doses, pattern of doses by age and coverage) and events of interest (diagnosis codes, incidence rates). A total of nine databases (primary care, regional/national record linkage) provided data on events (pertussis, pneumonia, death, fever, convulsions, injection site reactions, hypotonic hypo-responsive episode, persistent crying) and vaccines (acellular pertussis and whole cell pertussis) related to the pertussis proof of concept studies. RESULTS: The databases contained data for a total population of 44 million individuals. Seven databases had recorded doses of vaccines. The pertussis coverage estimates were similar to those reported by the World Health Organisation (WHO). Incidence rates of events were comparable in magnitude and age-distribution between databases with the same characteristics. Several conditions (persistent crying and somnolence) were not captured by the databases for which outcomes were restricted to hospital discharge diagnoses. CONCLUSION: The database characterisation programs and workflows allowed for an efficient, transparent and standardised description and verification of electronic healthcare databases which may participate in pertussis vaccine coverage, benefit and risk studies. This approach is ready to be used for other vaccines/events to create readiness for participation in other vaccine related studies.