Migratory earthquake precursors are dominant on an ice stream fault.

Simple fault models predict earthquake nucleation near the eventual hypocenter (self-nucleation). However, some earthquakes have migratory foreshocks and possibly slow slip that travel large distances toward the eventual mainshock hypocenter (migratory nucleation). Scarce observations of migratory nucleation may result from real differences between faults or merely observational limitations. We use Global Positioning System and passive seismic records of the easily observed daily ice stream earthquake cycle of the Whillans Ice Plain, West Antarctica, to quantify the prevalence of migratory versus self-nucleation in a large-scale, natural stick-slip system. We find abundant and predominantly migratory precursory slip, whereas self-nucleation is nearly absent. This demonstration that migratory nucleation exists on a natural fault implies that more-observable migratory precursors may also occur before some earthquakes.

Low coseismic friction on the Tohoku-Oki fault determined from temperature measurements.

The frictional resistance on a fault during slip controls earthquake dynamics. Friction dissipates heat during an earthquake; therefore, the fault temperature after an earthquake provides insight into the level of friction. The Japan Trench Fast Drilling Project (Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 343 and 343T) installed a borehole temperature observatory 16 months after the March 2011 moment magnitude 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake across the fault where slip was ~50 meters near the trench. After 9 months of operation, the complete sensor string was recovered. A 0.31°C temperature anomaly at the plate boundary fault corresponds to 27 megajoules per square meter of dissipated energy during the earthquake. The resulting apparent friction coefficient of 0.08 is considerably smaller than static values for most rocks.

Decay of aftershock density with distance indicates triggering by dynamic stress.

The majority of earthquakes are aftershocks, yet aftershock physics is not well understood. Many studies suggest that static stress changes trigger aftershocks, but recent work suggests that shaking (dynamic stresses) may also play a role. Here we measure the decay of aftershocks as a function of distance from magnitude 2-6 mainshocks in order to clarify the aftershock triggering process. We find that for short times after the mainshock, when low background seismicity rates allow for good aftershock detection, the decay is well fitted by a single inverse power law over distances of 0.2-50 km. The consistency of the trend indicates that the same triggering mechanism is working over the entire range. As static stress changes at the more distant aftershocks are negligible, this suggests that dynamic stresses may be triggering all of these aftershocks. We infer that the observed aftershock density is consistent with the probability of triggering aftershocks being nearly proportional to seismic wave amplitude. The data are not fitted well by models that combine static stress change with the evolution of frictionally locked faults.