Using comparative extinction risk analysis to prioritize the IUCN Red List reassessments of amphibians.

Assessing the extinction risk of species based on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List (RL) is key to guiding conservation policies and reducing biodiversity loss. This process is resource demanding, however, and requires continuous updating, which becomes increasingly difficult as new species are added to the RL. Automatic methods, such as comparative analyses used to predict species RL category, can be an efficient alternative to keep assessments up to date. Using amphibians as a study group, we predicted which species are more likely to change their RL category and thus should be prioritized for reassessment. We used species biological traits, environmental variables, and proxies of climate and land-use change as predictors of RL category. We produced an ensemble prediction of IUCN RL category for each species by combining 4 different model algorithms: cumulative link models, phylogenetic generalized least squares, random forests, and neural networks. By comparing RL categories with the ensemble prediction and accounting for uncertainty among model algorithms, we identified species that should be prioritized for future reassessment based on the mismatch between predicted and observed values. The most important predicting variables across models were species' range size and spatial configuration of the range, biological traits, climate change, and land-use change. We compared our proposed prioritization index and the predicted RL changes with independent IUCN RL reassessments and found high performance of both the prioritization and the predicted directionality of changes in RL categories. Ensemble modeling of RL category is a promising tool for prioritizing species for reassessment while accounting for models' uncertainty. This approach is broadly applicable to all taxa on the IUCN RL and to regional and national assessments and may improve allocation of the limited human and economic resources available to maintain an up-to-date IUCN RL.

Uso del análisis comparativo del riesgo de extinción para priorizar la reevaluación de los anfibios en la Lista Roja de la UICN Resumen El análisis del riesgo de extinción de una especie con base en la Lista Roja (LR) de la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza (UICN) es clave para guiar las políticas de conservación y reducir la pérdida de la biodiversidad. Sin embargo, este proceso demanda recursos y requiere de actualizaciones continuas, lo que se complica conforme se añaden especies nuevas a la LR. Los métodos automáticos, como los análisis comparativos usados para predecir la categoría de la especie en la LR, pueden ser una alternativa eficiente para mantener actualizados los análisis. Usamos a los anfibios como grupo de estudio para predecir cuáles especies tienen mayor probabilidad de cambiar de categoría en la LR y que, por lo tanto, se debería priorizar su reevaluación. Usamos las características biológicas de la especie, las variables ambientales e indicadores climáticos y del cambio de uso de suelo como predictores de la categoría en la LR. Elaboramos una predicción de ensamble de la categoría en la LR de la UICN para cada especie mediante la combinación de cuatro algoritmos diferentes: modelos de vínculo acumulativo, menor número de cuadros filogenéticos generalizados, bosques aleatorios y redes neurales. Con la comparación entre las categorías de la LR y la predicción de ensamble y con considerar la incertidumbre entre los algoritmos identificamos especies que deberían ser prioridad para futuras reevaluaciones con base en el desfase entre los valores predichos y los observados. Las variables de predicción más importantes entre los modelos fueron el tamaño de la distribución de la especie y su configuración espacial, las características biológicas, el cambio climático y el cambio de uso de suelo. Comparamos nuestra propuesta de índice de priorización y los cambios predichos en la LR con las reevaluaciones independientes de la LR de la UICN y descubrimos un buen desempeño tanto para la priorización como para la direccionalidad predicha de los cambios en las categorías de la LR. El modelo de ensamble de la categoría de la LR esa una herramienta prometedora para priorizar la reevaluación de las especies a la vez que considera la incertidumbre del modelo. Esta estrategia puede generalizarse para aplicarse a todos los taxones de la LR de la UICN y a los análisis regionales y nacionales. También podría mejorar la asignación de los recursos humanos y económicos limitados disponibles para mantener actualizada la LR de la UICN.

The positive impact of conservation action.

Governments recently adopted new global targets to halt and reverse the loss of biodiversity. It is therefore crucial to understand the outcomes of conservation actions. We conducted a global meta-analysis of 186 studies (including 665 trials) that measured biodiversity over time and compared outcomes under conservation action with a suitable counterfactual of no action. We find that in two-thirds of cases, conservation either improved the state of biodiversity or at least slowed declines. Specifically, we find that interventions targeted at species and ecosystems, such as invasive species control, habitat loss reduction and restoration, protected areas, and sustainable management, are highly effective and have large effect sizes. This provides the strongest evidence to date that conservation actions are successful but require transformational scaling up to meet global targets.

Evolution of water conservation in humans.

To sustain life, humans and other terrestrial animals must maintain a tight balance of water gain and water loss each day.1-3 However, the evolution of human water balance physiology is poorly understood due to the absence of comparative measures from other hominoids. While humans drink daily to maintain water balance, rainforest-living great apes typically obtain adequate water from their food and can go days or weeks without drinking4-6. Here, we compare isotope-depletion measures of water turnover (L/d) in zoo- and rainforest-sanctuary-housed apes (chimpanzees, bonobos, gorillas, and orangutans) with 5 diverse human populations, including a hunter-gatherer community in a semi-arid savannah. Across the entire sample, water turnover was strongly related to total energy expenditure (TEE, kcal/d), physical activity, climate (ambient temperature and humidity), and fat free mass. In analyses controlling for those factors, water turnover was 30% to 50% lower in humans than in other apes despite humans' greater sweating capacity. Water turnover in zoo and sanctuary apes was similar to estimated turnover in wild populations, as was the ratio of water intake to dietary energy intake (∼2.8 mL/kcal). However, zoo and sanctuary apes ingested a greater ratio of water to dry matter of food, which might contribute to digestive problems in captivity. Compared to apes, humans appear to target a lower ratio of water/energy intake (∼1.5 mL/kcal). Water stress due to changes in climate, diet, and behavior apparently led to previously unknown water conservation adaptations in hominin physiology.

Hip extensor mechanics and the evolution of walking and climbing capabilities in humans, apes, and fossil hominins.

The evolutionary emergence of humans' remarkably economical walking gait remains a focus of research and debate, but experimentally validated approaches linking locomotor capability to postcranial anatomy are limited. In this study, we integrated 3D morphometrics of hominoid pelvic shape with experimental measurements of hip kinematics and kinetics during walking and climbing, hamstring activity, and passive range of hip extension in humans, apes, and other primates to assess arboreal-terrestrial trade-offs in ischium morphology among living taxa. We show that hamstring-powered hip extension during habitual walking and climbing in living apes and humans is strongly predicted, and likely constrained, by the relative length and orientation of the ischium. Ape pelves permit greater extensor moments at the hip, enhancing climbing capability, but limit their range of hip extension, resulting in a crouched gait. Human pelves reduce hip extensor moments but permit a greater degree of hip extension, which greatly improves walking economy (i.e., distance traveled/energy consumed). Applying these results to fossil pelves suggests that early hominins differed from both humans and extant apes in having an economical walking gait without sacrificing climbing capability. Ardipithecus was capable of nearly human-like hip extension during bipedal walking, but retained the capacity for powerful, ape-like hip extension during vertical climbing. Hip extension capability was essentially human-like in Australopithecus afarensis and Australopithecus africanus, suggesting an economical walking gait but reduced mechanical advantage for powered hip extension during climbing.

Great ape walking kinematics: Implications for hominoid evolution.

OBJECTIVES: Great apes provide a point of reference for understanding the evolution of locomotion in hominoids and early hominins. We assessed (1) the extent to which great apes use diagonal sequence, diagonal couplet gaits, like other primates, (2) the extent to which gait and posture vary across great apes, and (3) the role of body mass and limb proportions on ape quadrupedal kinematics. METHODS: High-speed digital video of zoo-housed bonobos (Pan paniscus, N = 8), chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes, N = 13), lowland gorillas (Gorilla gorilla, N = 13), and orangutans (Pongo spp. N = 6) walking over-ground at self-selected speeds were used to determine the timing of limb touch-down, take-off, and to measure joint and segment angles at touch-down, midstance, and take-off. RESULTS: The great apes in our study showed broad kinematic and spatiotemporal similarity in quadrupedal walking. Size-adjusted walking speed was the strongest predictor of gait variables. Body mass had a negligible effect on variation in joint and segment angles, but stride frequency did trend higher among larger apes in analyses including size-adjusted speed. In contrast to most other primates, great apes did not favor diagonal sequence footfall patterns, but exhibited variable gait patterns that frequently shifted between diagonal and lateral sequences. CONCLUSION: Similarities in the terrestrial walking kinematics of extant great apes likely reflect their similar post-cranial anatomy and proportions. Our results suggest that the walking kinematics of orthograde, suspensory Miocene ape species were likely similar to living great apes, and highlight the utility of videographic and behavioral data in interpreting primate skeletal morphology.

Metabolic acceleration and the evolution of human brain size and life history.

Humans are distinguished from the other living apes in having larger brains and an unusual life history that combines high reproductive output with slow childhood growth and exceptional longevity. This suite of derived traits suggests major changes in energy expenditure and allocation in the human lineage, but direct measures of human and ape metabolism are needed to compare evolved energy strategies among hominoids. Here we used doubly labelled water measurements of total energy expenditure (TEE; kcal day(-1)) in humans, chimpanzees, bonobos, gorillas and orangutans to test the hypothesis that the human lineage has experienced an acceleration in metabolic rate, providing energy for larger brains and faster reproduction without sacrificing maintenance and longevity. In multivariate regressions including body size and physical activity, human TEE exceeded that of chimpanzees and bonobos, gorillas and orangutans by approximately 400, 635 and 820 kcal day(-1), respectively, readily accommodating the cost of humans' greater brain size and reproductive output. Much of the increase in TEE is attributable to humans' greater basal metabolic rate (kcal day(-1)), indicating increased organ metabolic activity. Humans also had the greatest body fat percentage. An increased metabolic rate, along with changes in energy allocation, was crucial in the evolution of human brain size and life history.