RESUMEN
To explore the efficacy of four vaccine-based policy strategies (ring vaccination, targeted vaccination, mass vaccination, and pre-vaccination of healthcare personnel combined with ring vaccination) for controlling smallpox outbreaks in Sweden, disease transmission on a spatially explicit social network was simulated. The mixing network was formed from high-coverage official register data of the entire Swedish population, building on the Swedish Total Population Register, the Swedish Employment Register, and the Geographic Database of Sweden. The largest reduction measured in the number of infections was achieved when combining ring vaccination with a pre-vaccination of healthcare personnel. In terms of per dose effectiveness, ring vaccination was by far the most effective strategy. The results can to some extent be adapted to other diseases and environments, including other countries, and the methods used can be analysed in their own right.
Asunto(s)
Brotes de Enfermedades/prevención & control , Modelos Biológicos , Vacuna contra Viruela/administración & dosificación , Viruela/prevención & control , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/métodos , Brotes de Enfermedades/estadística & datos numéricos , Personal de Salud , Política de Salud , Humanos , Cómputos Matemáticos , Sistema de Registros , Viruela/epidemiología , Viruela/transmisión , Suecia/epidemiología , Vacunación/métodosRESUMEN
Experiments using a microsimulation platform show that vaccination against pandemic H1N1 influenza is highly cost-effective. Swedish society may reduce the costs of pandemic by about SEK 2.5 billion (approximately EUR 250 million) if at least 60 per cent of the population is vaccinated, even if costs related to death cases are excluded. The cost reduction primarily results from reduced absenteeism. These results are preliminary and based on comprehensive assumptions about the infectiousness and morbidity of the pandemic, which are uncertain in the current situation.
Asunto(s)
Brotes de Enfermedades/economía , Brotes de Enfermedades/prevención & control , Costos de la Atención en Salud/estadística & datos numéricos , Vacunas contra la Influenza/economía , Vacunas contra la Influenza/uso terapéutico , Gripe Humana/economía , Gripe Humana/prevención & control , Análisis Costo-Beneficio , Brotes de Enfermedades/estadística & datos numéricos , Humanos , Incidencia , Gripe Humana/epidemiología , Vacunación Masiva/economía , Vacunación Masiva/estadística & datos numéricos , Proyectos Piloto , Vigilancia de la Población , Medición de Riesgo/métodos , Factores de Riesgo , Suecia/epidemiología , Resultado del TratamientoRESUMEN
We provide a new tool, StatFlu, combining advances in static modelling using historic influenza data with a pedagogical interface designed to highlight propagation of parameter settings and uncertainties in the output. StatFlu provides graphs of the load on hospital wards as well as primary care units as a function of time, aiding the user in decision making.
