Hypoxia extreme events in a changing climate: Machine learning methods and deterministic simulations for future scenarios development in the Venice Lagoon.

Climate change pressures include the dissolved oxygen decline that in lagoon ecosystems can lead to hypoxia, i.e. low dissolved oxygen concentrations, which have consequences to ecosystem functioning including biogeochemical cycling from mild to severe disruption. The study investigates the potential of machine learning (ML) and deterministic models to predict future hypoxia events. Employing ML models, e.g. Random Forest and AdaBoost, past hypoxia events (2008-2019) in the Venice Lagoon were classified with an F1 score of around 0.83, based on water quality, meteorological, and spatio-temporal factors. Future scenarios (2050, 2100) were estimated by integrating hydrodynamic-biogeochemical and climate projections. Results suggest hypoxia events will increase from 3.5 % to 8.8 % by 2100, particularly in landward lagoon areas. Summer prediction foresee a rise from 118 events to 265 by 2100, with a longer hypoxia-prone season. This model is a valuable tool for developing hypoxia scenarios, aiding in identifying restoration hotspots for climate-threatened lagoons.

Downscaled and bias-corrected bioclimatic dataset for the Mediterranean Sea (2005-2099).

This dataset provides annual statistical descriptors (mean, minimum, maximum, range and standard deviation) of key biogeochemical and physical variables for the Mediterranean Sea. It covers the period 2005-2099 under a high emissions scenario (CMIP5-RCP8.5), with a spatial resolution of 1/24 degree (∼4 km²). The CMIP5-RCP8.5 scenario considers the current trajectory of increasing greenhouse gas emissions and population growth to the end of the century with nominal policies to reduce emissions. Variables include temperature, salinity, pH, water velocity, nutrients (NO3, PO4, NH4), dissolved inorganic carbon, oxygen, and net primary production. Data are available for both surface and at bathymetry level. The original projections were generated using OGSTM-BFM and MFS16 models at daily time and 1/16 degree grid resolution. These were downscaled to 1/24 degree resolution and bias corrected by quantile delta mapping using CMEMS reanalysis products from 2005 to 2020. The dataset is provided in a user-friendly format so that it is accessible for various ecological and environmental modelling applications.

Mercury cycling in contaminated coastal environments: modeling the benthic-pelagic coupling and microbial resistance in the Venice Lagoon.

Anthropogenic activities have been releasing mercury for centuries, and despite global efforts to control emissions, concentrations in environmental media remain high. Coastal sediments can be a long-term repository for mercury, but also a secondary source, and competing processes in marine ecosystems can lead to the conversion of mercury into the toxic and bioaccumulative species methylmercury, which threatens ecosystem and human health. We investigate the fate and transport of three mercury species in a coastal lagoon affected by historical pollution using a novel high-resolution finite element model that integrates mercury biogeochemistry, sediment dynamics and hydrodynamics. The model resolves mercury dynamics in the seawater and the seabed taking into account partitioning, transport driven by water and sediment, and photochemical and microbial transformations. We simulated three years (early 2000s, 2019, and 2020) to assess the spatio-temporal distribution of mercury species concentrations and performed a sensitivity analysis to account for uncertainties. The modeled mercury species concentrations show high temporal and spatial variability, with water concentrations in some areas of the lagoon exceeding those of the open Mediterranean Sea by two orders of magnitude, consistent with available observations from the early 2000s. The results support conclusions about the importance of different processes in shaping the environmental gradients of mercury species. Due to the past accumulation of mercury in the lagoon sediments, inorganic mercury in the water is closely related to the resuspension of contaminated sediments, which is significantly reduced by the presence of benthic vegetation. The gradients of methylmercury depend on the combination of several factors, of which sediment resuspension and mercury methylation are the most relevant. The results add insights into mercury dynamics at coastal sites characterized by a combination of past pollution (i.e. sediment enrichment) and erosive processes, and suggest possible nature-based mitigation strategies such as the preservation of the integrity of benthic vegetation and morphology.

Hydrology, biogeochemistry and metabolism in a semi-arid mediterranean coastal wetland ecosystem.

A LOICZ Budget Model is applied to the Ichkeul Lake, a wetland ecosystem of the South Mediterranean-North African region, to evaluate its functioning in order to boost water management. The Ichkeul Lake water and nutrient budget, net ecosystem metabolism (NEM), nutrient availability, and their seasonal changes are estimated using field data. A considerable anthropogenic-driven amount of nitrogen is transferred into N2/N2O to the atmosphere during the dry season with predominance of denitrification-anammox processes. The primary production is impacted by forcing the ecosystem respiration to reduce the NEM so that the system is functioning as heterotrophic. Climate change and anthropogenic pressures are expected to exacerbate the current trends of water quality degradation, with possible negative impacts on Palearctic birds' population. Mitigation actions are possible, through the implementation of National Wetland Management Strategies that include nutrient load and water resources management.

Mediterranean Mercury Assessment 2022: An Updated Budget, Health Consequences, and Research Perspectives.

Mercury (Hg) and especially its methylated species (MeHg) are toxic chemicals that contaminate humans via the consumption of seafood. The most recent UNEP Global Mercury Assessment stressed that Mediterranean populations have higher Hg levels than people elsewhere in Europe. The present Critical Review updates current knowledge on the sources, biogeochemical cycling, and mass balance of Hg in the Mediterranean and identifies perspectives for future research especially in the context of global change. Concentrations of Hg in the Western Mediterranean average 0.86 ± 0.27 pmol L-1 in the upper water layer and 1.02 ± 0.12 pmol L-1 in intermediate and deep waters. In the Eastern Mediterranean, Hg measurements are in the same range but are too few to determine any consistent oceanographical pattern. The Mediterranean waters have a high methylation capacity, with MeHg representing up to 86% of the total Hg, and constitute a source of MeHg for the adjacent North Atlantic Ocean. The highest MeHg concentrations are associated with low oxygen water masses, suggesting a microbiological control on Hg methylation, consistent with the identification of hgcA-like genes in Mediterranean waters. MeHg concentrations are twice as high in the waters of the Western Basin compared to the ultra-oligotrophic Eastern Basin waters. This difference appears to be transferred through the food webs and the Hg content in predators to be ultimately controlled by MeHg concentrations of the waters of their foraging zones. Many Mediterranean top-predatory fish still exceed European Union regulatory Hg thresholds. This emphasizes the necessity of monitoring the exposure of Mediterranean populations, to formulate adequate mitigation strategies and recommendations, without advising against seafood consumption. This review also points out other insufficiencies of knowledge of Hg cycling in the Mediterranean Sea, including temporal variations in air-sea exchange, hydrothermal and cold seep inputs, point sources, submarine groundwater discharge, and exchanges between margins and the open sea. Future assessment of global change impacts under the Minamata Convention Hg policy requires long-term observations and dedicated high-resolution Earth System Models for the Mediterranean region.

Mercury dynamics in a changing coastal area over industrial and postindustrial phases: Lessons from the Venice Lagoon.

During the industrial period, significant amounts of mercury (Hg) were discharged into the Venice Lagoon. Here, a spatially explicit model was implemented to reconstruct the temporal evolution of the total mercury (HgT) and methylmercury (MeHgT) concentrations in lagoon water and sediments over two centuries (1900-2100), from preindustrial to postindustrial phases. The model simulates the transport and transformations of particulate and dissolved Hg species. It is forced with time-variable Hg inputs and environmental conditions, including scenarios of future atmospheric deposition, reconstructed according to local and global socioeconomic scenarios. Since 1900, ~36 Mg of HgT and ~380 kg of MeHgT were delivered to the lagoon, and stored in the sediments. The deposition of Hg from the water to the seafloor increased during a period of eutrophication (1980s); however, the reverse fluxes increased during a period of high sediment resuspension caused by the unregulated fishing of Manila clams (1990s). In the current postindustrial phase, the lagoon sediments have acted as a secondary source to the lagoon waters, delivering Hg (~38 kg y-1) and MeHg (~0.07 kg y-1). The MeHg inputs from the watershed (~0.28 kg y-1) appear to be higher than the secondary fluxes from the sediments. The estimated HgT export to the Adriatic Sea is ~56 kg y-1. Since HgT and MeHgT outputs slightly exceed inputs, the concentrations are slowly decreasing. While the decreasing trend is maintained in all scenarios, the future level of atmospheric deposition will affect Hg concentrations and sediment recovery times. Though limited by inherent simplifications, this work results show that the reconstruction of historical dynamics using a holistic approach, supported by data, can improve our understanding of the pollutants distribution and the quantification of local emissions. Downscaling from trends predicted at the global scale taking into account for regional differences seems useful to investigate the pollutants fate.

Hydrodynamic properties of San Quintin Bay, Baja California: Merging models and observations.

We investigated the physical dynamics of San Quintin Bay, a coastal lagoon located on the Pacific coast of northern Baja California, Mexico. We implemented, validated and used a finite element 2-D hydrodynamic model to characterize the spatial and temporal variability of the hydrodynamic of the bay in response to variability in the tidal regime and in meteorological forcing patterns. Our analysis of general circulation, residual currents, residence times, and tidal propagation delays allowed us to characterize spatial variability in the hydrodynamic basin features. The eulerian water residence time is -on average and under reference conditions- approximately 7days, although this can change significantly by region and season and under different tidal and meteorological conditions. Ocean upwelling events that bring colder waters into the bay mouth affect hydrodynamic properties in all areas of the lagoon and may affect ecological dynamics. A return to pre-upwelling conditions would take approximately 10days.

Assessment of oil slick hazard and risk at vulnerable coastal sites.

This work gives an assessment of the hazard faced by Sicily coasts regarding potential offshore surface oil spill events and provides a risk assessment for Sites of Community Importance (SCI) and Special Protection Areas (SPA). A lagrangian module, coupled with a high resolution finite element three dimensional hydrodynamic model, was used to track the ensemble of a large number of surface trajectories followed by particles released over 6 selected areas located inside the Sicily Channel. The analysis was carried out under multiple scenarios of meteorological conditions. Oil evaporation, oil weathering, and shore stranding are also considered. Seasonal hazard maps for different stranding times and seasonal risk maps were then produced for the whole Sicilian coastline. The results highlight that depending on the meteo-marine conditions, particles can reach different areas of the Sicily coast, including its northern side, and illustrate how impacts can be greatly reduced through prompt implementation of mitigation strategies.

Assessing confinement in coastal lagoons.

Measures of transport scale in aquatic systems can contribute to the formulation of definitions of indicators of the system's ecological properties. This paper addresses confinement, a specific transport scale proposed by biological scientists as a parameter that can capture and synthesize the principal properties that determine the spatial structure of biological communities in transitional environments. Currently, there is no direct experimental measure of confinement. In this study, a methodology based on the accumulation rate within a lagoon of a passive tracer of marine origin is proposed, the influences of different factors in the calculation of confinement are analyzed, and general recommendations are derived. In particular, we analyze the spatial and the temporal variability of confinement and its sensitivity to the seasonal variability of climatic forcing, the inputs from rivers and the parameterization of the tidal exchanges. The Lagoon of Venice is used as a case study.

Fuzziness and heterogeneity of benthic metacommunities in a complex transitional system.

We propose an extension to the metacommunity (MC) concept and a novel operational methodology that has the potential to refine the analysis of MC structure at different hierarchical levels. We show that assemblages of species can also be seen as assemblages of abstract subregional habitat-related metacommunities (habMCs). This intrinsically fuzzy concept recognizes the existence of habMCs that are typically associated with given habitats, while allowing for the mixing and superposition of different habMCs in all sites and for boundaries among subregions that are neither spatially sharp nor temporally constant. The combination of fuzzy clustering and direct gradient analysis permits us to 1) objectively identify the number of habMCs that are present in a region as well as their spatial distributions and relative weights at different sites; 2) associate different subregions with different biological communities; and 3) quantitatively assess the affinities between habMCs and physical, morphological, biogeochemical, and environmental properties, thereby enabling an analysis of the roles and relative importance of various environmental parameters in shaping the spatial structure of a metacommunity. This concept and methodology offer the possibility of integrating the continuum and community unit concepts and of developing the concept of a habMC ecological niche. This approach also facilitates the practical application of the MC concept, which are not currently in common use. Applying these methods to macrophytobenthic and macrozoobenthic hard-substrate assemblages in the Venetian Lagoon, we identified a hierarchical organization of macrobenthic communities that associated different habMCs with different habitats. Our results demonstrate that different reference terms should be applied to different subregions to assess the ecological status of a waterbody and show that a combination of several environmental parameters describes the spatial heterogeneity of benthic communities much better than any single property can. Our results also emphasize the importance of considering heterogeneity and fuzziness when working in natural systems.