Mortality surveillance system: models from the second year.

This is the second report presenting statistical charts and text from the Mortality Surveillance System (MSS). The first report presented the statistical charts and text from the first year of the MSS as published in the Monthly Vital Statistics Report (MVSR) volume 38, numbers 2-volume 39, number 1, and briefly described the methodology that was used. This report presents the statistical charts and text from the second year of the MSS as published in the MVSR volume 39, number 2-volume 40, number 1. Also presented are the monthly data used in fitting the models depicted in the published charts and the model statistics for the fitted curves. According to the Dictionary of Epdenriology edited by John Last (2) surveillance is "Ongoing scrutiny, generally using methods distinguished by their practicability, uniformity, and frequently their rapidity, rather than by complete accuracy. Its main purpose is to detect changes in trend or distribution in order to initiate investigative or control measures." Conceptually, then, the purpose of the MSS is to detect changes in trend or distribution to initiate further investigative and control measures in a practical and timely manner.

Mortality surveillance system: the first models from year.

This report presents the statistical charts and text from the first year of the Mortality Surveillance System (MSS), as published in 12 issues of the Monthly Vital Statistics Report (MVSR) (Vol. 3S, No. 2-Vol. 39, No. l), and briefly describes the methodology that was used. Also presented are the monthly data used in fitting the models depicted in the published charts and the model statistics for the fitted curves. According to the Dictionary of Epidemiology edited by John Last surveillance is "Ongoing scrutiny, generally using methods distinguished by their practicability, uniformity, and frequently their rapidity, rather than by complete accuracy. Its main purpose is to detect changes in trend or distribution in order to initiate investigative or control measures." Conceptually, then, the purpose of the MSS is to detect changes in trend or distribution in order to initiate further investigative and control measures in a practical and timeIy manner.

Impact of the human immunodeficiency virus epidemic on mortality trends in young men, United States.

Following a long-term decline, death rates in men 25-44 years of age increased from 212 deaths/100,000 in 1983 to 236 deaths/100,000 in 1987. To assess the impact of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections on this trend and to identify causes that are increasing in association with the HIV epidemic, we analyzed national mortality statistics and compared death rates in states with high and low incidence of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). In 1987, there were 10,248 deaths with HIV infection, AIDS, or conditions in the AIDS surveillance definition assigned as the underlying cause, representing 11 percent of deaths for men in this age group compared to less than 1 percent in 1980. In addition, deaths with other underlying causes, such as other infections, drug abuse, and unknown/unspecified causes, had diverging and higher rates in states with high versus low AIDS incidence. In the absence of deaths due to HIV/AIDS and excess deaths due to these associated conditions, we estimate that death rates for men 25-44 years of age would have been 201-209/100,000 in 1987. For 1987, approximately 70-90 percent of HIV-related deaths were reported through national AIDS surveillance. The HIV epidemic has led to a reversal in mortality trends and to increases in various causes of death for young men.

Trends in COPD morbidity and mortality in the United States.

This paper describes patterns and trends in COPD morbidity and mortality based on data from several data systems of the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), as follows: mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System; and morbidity data from the National Health Interview Survey, the National Hospital Discharge Survey, and the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey. The paper focuses on the period 1979 to 1985 and the age groups 55 years old and over. old and over. Data are also presented separately for men and women. In addition to presenting rates for prevalence, hospital discharges, office visits, and deaths on a population basis, the paper also presents rates and analyses on a per case basis, using a "pseudo-natural history model." This paper also describes some of the methodological issues associated with analyzing comparative data from several NCHS data systems.

National trends in the morbidity and mortality of asthma in the US. Prevalence, hospitalization and death from asthma over two decades: 1965-1984.

National population-based data systems of the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) were used to study the epidemiology of asthma in the United States over the last 20 years. Asthma is more prevalent among males, those living below the poverty level, persons living in the South and West, and blacks; however, this difference did not attain statistical significance. Death rates from asthma among the older age groups probably increased between 1968 and 1982, with a substantial increase since 1979. For children, the evidence is less clear, but the death rate has increased for children over five years of age during the period from 1979 to 1982. Between 1964 and 1980, asthma has become more prevalent in children under 17 years of age, but this does not reflect an increase in the severity of asthma over this same time period. Hospitalization rates for asthma between 1965 and 1983 increased by 50 percent in adults and by over 200 percent in children. Rates for black patients are 50 percent higher in adults and 150 percent greater in children. It is concluded that there has been a marked increase in hospitalization rates for asthma, a moderate increase in death rates from asthma and a smaller increase in overall prevalence of the disease in the United States.