Efficacy of Air Cleaning Units for preventing SARS-CoV-2 and other hospital-acquired infections on medicine for older people wards: A quasi-experimental controlled before-and- after study.

BACKGROUND: Nosocomial infections are costly and airborne transmission is increasingly recognised as important for spread. Air Cleaning Units (ACUs) may reduce transmission but little research has focused on their effectiveness on open wards. AIM: Assess whether ACUs reduce nosocomial SARS-CoV-2, or other, infections on older adult inpatient wards. METHODS: Quasi-experimental before-after study on two intervention-control ward pairs in a UK teaching hospital. Infections were identified using routinely collected electronic health records data during one year of ACU implementation and the preceding year ("core study period"). Extended analyses included 6 months additional data from one ward pair following ACU removal. Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated through Cox regression controlling for age, sex, ward and background infection risk. Time the ACUs were switched on was also recorded for intervention ward 2. FINDINGS: ACUs were initially feasible but compliance reduced towards the end of the study (average operation in first vs second half of ACU time on intervention ward 2: 77% vs 53%). 8171 admissions >48hrs (6112 patients, median age 85yrs) were included. Overall, incidence of ward-acquired SARS-CoV-2 was 3.8%. ACU implementation was associated with a non-significant trend of lower hazard for SARS-CoV-2 infection (HR core study period 0.90, 95% CI 0.53, 1.52; extended study period 0.78, 95% CI 0.53, 1.14). Only 1.5% of admissions resulted in other notable ward-acquired infections. CONCLUSION: ACUs may reduce SARS-CoV-2 infection to a clinically-meaningfully degree. Larger studies could reduce uncertainty, perhaps using a cross-over design, and factors influencing acceptability to staff and patients should be further explored.

The airborne transmission of viruses causes tight transmission bottlenecks.

The transmission bottleneck describes the number of viral particles that initiate an infection in a new host. Previous studies have used genome sequence data to suggest that transmission bottlenecks for influenza and SARS-CoV-2 involve few viral particles, but the general principles of virus transmission are not fully understood. Here we show that, across a broad range of circumstances, tight transmission bottlenecks are a simple consequence of the physical process of airborne viral transmission. We use mathematical modelling to describe the physical process of the emission and inhalation of infectious particles, deriving the result that that the great majority of transmission bottlenecks involve few viral particles. While exceptions to this rule exist, the circumstances needed to create these exceptions are likely very rare. We thus provide a physical explanation for previous inferences of bottleneck size, while predicting that tight transmission bottlenecks prevail more generally in respiratory virus transmission.

A psychrometric model to assess the biological decay of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in aerosols.

There is increasing evidence that the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic has been influenced by variations in air temperature and humidity. However, the impact that these environmental parameters have on survival of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has not been fully characterised. Therefore, an analytical study was undertaken using published data to develop a psychrometric model to assess the biological decay rate of the virus in aerosols. This revealed that it is possible to describe with reasonable accuracy (R 2 = 0.718, p < 0.001) the biological decay constant for the SARS-CoV-2 virus using a regression model with enthalpy, vapour pressure and specific volume as predictors. Applying this to historical meteorological data from London, Paris and Milan over the pandemic period, produced results which indicate that the average half-life of the virus in aerosols outdoors was in the region 13-22 times longer in March 2020, when the outbreak was accelerating, than it was in August 2020 when epidemic in Europe was at its nadir. However, indoors, this variation is likely to be much less. As such, this suggests that changes in virus survivability due the variations in the psychrometric qualities of the air might influence the transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

A psychrometric model to predict the biological decay of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in aerosols

There is increasing evidence that the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic has been influenced by variations in air temperature and humidity. However, the impact that these environmental parameters have on survival of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has not been fully characterised. Therefore an analytical study was undertaken using published data to develop a psychrometric model to predict the biological decay rate of the virus in aerosols. This revealed that it is possible to predict with a high degree of accuracy (R2 = 0.718, p<0.001) the biological decay constant for SARS-CoV-2 using a regression model with enthalpy, vapour pressure and specific volume as predictors. Applying this to historical meteorological data from London, Paris and Milan over the pandemic period, produced results which indicate that the average half-life of the virus in aerosols was in the region 13-21 times longer in March 2020, when the outbreak was accelerating, than it was in August 2020 when epidemic in Europe was at its nadir. As such, this suggests that changes in virus survivability due the variations in the psychrometric qualities of the air might influence the transmission of COVID-19.

Central venous pressure estimation from ultrasound assessment of the jugular venous pulse.

OBJECTIVES: Acquiring central venous pressure (CVP), an important clinical parameter, requires an invasive procedure, which poses risk to patients. The aim of the study was to develop a non-invasive methodology for determining mean-CVP from ultrasound assessment of the jugular venous pulse. METHODS: In thirty-four adult patients (age = 60 ± 12 years; 10 males), CVP was measured using a central venous catheter, with internal jugular vein (IJV) cross-sectional area (CSA) variation along the cardiac beat acquired using ultrasound. The resultant CVP and IJV-CSA signals were synchronized with electrocardiogram (ECG) signals acquired from the patients. Autocorrelation signals were derived from the IJV-CSA signals using algorithms in R (open-source statistical software). The correlation r-values for successive lag intervals were extracted and used to build a linear regression model in which mean-CVP was the response variable and the lagging autocorrelation r-values and mean IJV-CSA, were the predictor variables. The optimum model was identified using the minimum AIC value and validated using 10-fold cross-validation. RESULTS: While the CVP and IJV-CSA signals were poorly correlated (mean r = -0.018, SD = 0.357) due to the IJV-CSA signal lagging behind the CVP signal, their autocorrelation counterparts were highly positively correlated (mean r = 0.725, SD = 0.215). Using the lagging autocorrelation r-values as predictors, mean-CVP was predicted with reasonable accuracy (r2 = 0.612), with a mean-absolute-error of 1.455 cmH2O, which rose to 2.436 cmH2O when cross-validation was performed. CONCLUSIONS: Mean-CVP can be estimated non-invasively by using the lagged autocorrelation r-values of the IJV-CSA signal. This new methodology may have considerable potential as a clinical monitoring and diagnostic tool.

Upper-room ultraviolet air disinfection might help to reduce COVID-19 transmission in buildings: a feasibility study.

As the world's economies come out of the lockdown imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic, there is an urgent need for technologies to mitigate COVID-19 transmission in confined spaces such as buildings. This feasibility study looks at one such technology, upper-room ultraviolet (UV) air disinfection, that can be safely used while humans are present in the room space, and which has already proven its efficacy as an intervention to inhibit the transmission of airborne diseases such as measles and tuberculosis. Using published data from various sources, it is shown that the SARS-CoV-2 virus, the causative agent of COVID-19, is highly likely to be susceptible to UV-C damage when suspended in air, with a UV susceptibility constant likely to be in the region 0.377-0.590 m2/J, similar to that for other aerosolised coronaviruses. As such, the UV-C flux required to disinfect the virus is expected to be acceptable and safe for upper-room applications. Through analysis of expected and worst-case scenarios, the efficacy of the upper-room UV-C approach for reducing COVID-19 transmission in confined spaces (with moderate but sufficient ceiling height) is demonstrated. Furthermore, it is shown that with SARS-CoV-2, it should be possible to achieve high equivalent air change rates using upper-room UV air disinfection, suggesting that the technology might be particularly applicable to poorly ventilated spaces.

Upper-room ultraviolet air disinfection might help to reduce COVID-19 transmission in buildings

As the world economies get out of the lockdown imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic, there is an urgent need to assess the suitability of known technologies to mitigate COVID-19 transmission in confined spaces such as buildings. This feasibility study looks at the method of upper-room ultraviolet (UV) air disinfection that has already proven its efficacy in preventing the transmission of airborne diseases such as measles and tuberculosis. Using published data from various sources it is shown that the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which causes COVID-19, is highly likely to be susceptible to UV damage while suspended in air irradiated by UV-C at levels that are acceptable and safe for upper-room applications. This is while humans are present in the room. Both the expected and worst-case scenarios are investigated to show the efficacy of the upper-room UV-C approach to reduce COVID-19 air transmission in a confined space with moderate but sufficient height. Discussion is given on the methods of analysis and the differences between virus susceptibility to UV-C when aerosolised or in liquid or on a surface.

Is there an airborne component to the transmission of COVID-19? : a quantitative analysis study

ObjectivesWhile COVID-19 is known to be spread by respiratory droplets (which travel <2m horizontally), much less is known about its transmission via aerosols, which can become airborne and widely distributed throughout room spaces. In order to quantify the risk posed by COVID-19 infectors exhaling respiratory aerosols in enclosed spaces, we undertook a computer modelling study to simulate transmission in an office building. MethodsRespiratory droplet data from four published datasets were analysed to quantify the number and volume of droplets <100m diameter produced by a typical cough and speaking event (i.e. counting from 1 to 100). This was used in a stochastic model to simulate (10000 simulations) the number of respiratory particles, originating from a COVID-19 infector, that would be inhaled in one hour by a susceptible individual practicing socially distancing in a 4 x 4 x 2.5m office space. Several scenarios were simulated that mimicked the presence of both symptomatic and asymptomatic COVID-19 infectors. ResultsOn average, each cough and speaking event produced similar numbers of droplets <100m diameter (median range = 971.9 - 1013.4). Computer simulations (ventilation rate=2AC/h) revealed that sharing the office space with a symptomatic COVID-19 infector (4 coughs and 10 speaking events per hour) for one hour resulted in the inhalation of 16.9 (25-75th range = 8.1-33.9) aerosolised respiratory droplets, equating to about 280-1190 particles inhaled over a 35-hour working week. Sharing with an asymptomatic infector (10 speaking events per hour) resulted in the about 196-875 particles inhaled over 35 hours. ConclusionsGiven that live SARS-CoV-2 virions are known to be shed in high concentrations from the nasal cavity of both symptomatic and asymptomatic COVID-19 patients, the results suggest that those sharing enclosed spaces with infectors for long periods may be at risk of contracting COVID-19 by the aerosol route, even when practicing social distancing.

Hidden dynamics of soccer leagues: The predictive 'power' of partial standings.

OBJECTIVES: Soccer leagues reflect the partial standings of the teams involved after each round of competition. However, the ability of partial league standings to predict end-of-season position has largely been ignored. Here we analyze historical partial standings from English soccer to understand the mathematics underpinning league performance and evaluate the predictive 'power' of partial standings. METHODS: Match data (1995-2017) from the four senior English leagues was analyzed, together with random match scores generated for hypothetical leagues of equivalent size. For each season the partial standings were computed and Kendall's normalized tau-distance and Spearman r-values determined. Best-fit power-law and logarithmic functions were applied to the respective tau-distance and Spearman curves, with the 'goodness-of-fit' assessed using the R2 value. The predictive ability of the partial standings was evaluated by computing the transition probabilities between the standings at rounds 10, 20 and 30 and the final end-of-season standings for the 22 seasons. The impact of reordering match fixtures was also evaluated. RESULTS: All four English leagues behaved similarly, irrespective of the teams involved, with the tau-distance conforming closely to a power law (R2>0.80) and the Spearman r-value obeying a logarithmic function (R2>0.87). The randomized leagues also conformed to a power-law, but had a different shape. In the English leagues, team position relative to end-of-season standing became 'fixed' much earlier in the season than was the case with the randomized leagues. In the Premier League, 76.9% of the variance in the final standings was explained by round-10, 87.0% by round-20, and 93.9% by round-30. Reordering of match fixtures appeared to alter the shape of the tau-distance curves. CONCLUSIONS: All soccer leagues appear to conform to mathematical laws, which constrain the league standings as the season progresses. This means that partial standings can be used to predict end-of-season league position with reasonable accuracy.

Overcoming the problem of multicollinearity in sports performance data: A novel application of partial least squares correlation analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Professional sporting organisations invest considerable resources collecting and analysing data in order to better understand the factors that influence performance. Recent advances in non-invasive technologies, such as global positioning systems (GPS), mean that large volumes of data are now readily available to coaches and sport scientists. However analysing such data can be challenging, particularly when sample sizes are small and data sets contain multiple highly correlated variables, as is often the case in a sporting context. Multicollinearity in particular, if not treated appropriately, can be problematic and might lead to erroneous conclusions. In this paper we present a novel 'leave one variable out' (LOVO) partial least squares correlation analysis (PLSCA) methodology, designed to overcome the problem of multicollinearity, and show how this can be used to identify the training load (TL) variables that influence most 'end fitness' in young rugby league players. METHODS: The accumulated TL of sixteen male professional youth rugby league players (17.7 ± 0.9 years) was quantified via GPS, a micro-electrical-mechanical-system (MEMS), and players' session-rating-of-perceived-exertion (sRPE) over a 6-week pre-season training period. Immediately prior to and following this training period, participants undertook a 30-15 intermittent fitness test (30-15IFT), which was used to determine a players 'starting fitness' and 'end fitness'. In total twelve TL variables were collected, and these along with 'starting fitness' as a covariate were regressed against 'end fitness'. However, considerable multicollinearity in the data (VIF >1000 for nine variables) meant that the multiple linear regression (MLR) process was unstable and so we developed a novel LOVO PLSCA adaptation to quantify the relative importance of the predictor variables and thus minimise multicollinearity issues. As such, the LOVO PLSCA was used as a tool to inform and refine the MLR process. RESULTS: The LOVO PLSCA identified the distance accumulated at very-high speed (>7 m·s-1) as being the most important TL variable to influence improvement in player fitness, with this variable causing the largest decrease in singular value inertia (5.93). When included in a refined linear regression model, this variable, along with 'starting fitness' as a covariate, explained 73% of the variance in v30-15IFT 'end fitness' (p<0.001) and eliminated completely any multicollinearity issues. CONCLUSIONS: The LOVO PLSCA technique appears to be a useful tool for evaluating the relative importance of predictor variables in data sets that exhibit considerable multicollinearity. When used as a filtering tool, LOVO PLSCA produced a MLR model that demonstrated a significant relationship between 'end fitness' and the predictor variable 'accumulated distance at very-high speed' when 'starting fitness' was included as a covariate. As such, LOVO PLSCA may be a useful tool for sport scientists and coaches seeking to analyse data sets obtained using GPS and MEMS technologies.

Isolated Common Iliac Artery Aneurysms Treated Solely With Iliac Branch Stent-Grafts: Midterm Results of a Multicenter Registry.

PURPOSE: To assess early and midterm outcomes of iliac branch device (IBD) implantation without an aortic stent-graft for the treatment of isolated common iliac artery aneurysm (CIAA). METHODS: From December 2006 to June 2016, 49 isolated CIAAs in 46 patients were treated solely with an IBD at 7 vascular centers. Five patients were lost to follow-up, leaving 41 male patients (mean age 72.5±7.8 years) for analysis. Mean CIAA diameter was 39.1±10.5 mm (range 25-65). Thirty-two patients (2 with bilateral CIAAs) were treated with a Cook Zenith iliac branch device; 9 patients (1 bilateral) received a Gore Excluder iliac branch endoprosthesis. Primary endpoints were technical success, survival, aneurysm exclusion, device patency, and freedom from reintervention at 1 and 5 years. Freedom from major adverse events and aneurysm shrinkage at 1 year were also assessed. RESULTS: Thirty-day mortality and the IBD occlusion rate were 2.4% and 2.3%, respectively. At a mean follow-up of 40.2±33.9 months, no patient presented buttock claudication, erectile dysfunction, or bowel or spinal cord ischemia. Three patients died within 6 months after the procedure. Estimates of cumulative survival, device patency, and freedom from reintervention were 90.2%, 95.2%, and 95.7%, respectively, at 1 and 5 years. At 1 year, CIAA shrinkage ≥5 mm was recorded in 21 of 38 survivors. No evidence of endoleak, device migration, or disconnection was found on imaging follow-up. CONCLUSION: The use of IBDs without an aortic stent-graft for isolated CIAAs resulted in excellent patency, with low morbidity and mortality. This, in conjunction with no endoleak or migration and a low reintervention rate, supports the use of isolated IBDs as a stable and durable means of endovascular reconstruction in cases with suitable anatomy. Longer follow-up and a larger cohort are needed to validate these results.

Mid-term sustained relief from headaches after balloon angioplasty of the internal jugular veins in patients with multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVES: Multiple sclerosis (MS) patients frequently suffer from headaches and fatigue, and many reports have linked headaches with intracranial and/or extracranial venous obstruction. We therefore designed a study involving MS patients diagnosed with obstructive disease of internal jugular veins (IJVs), with the aim of evaluating the impact of percutaneous transluminal angioplasty (PTA) on headache and fatigue indicators. METHODS: 286 MS patients (175 relapsing remitting (RR), 75 secondary progressive (SP), and 36 primary progressive (PP)), diagnosed with obstructive disease of IJVs, underwent PTA of IJVs during the period 2011-2015. This included 113 headache positive patients (82 RR, 22 SP, and 9 PP) and 277 fatigue positive patients (167 RR, 74 SP, and 36 PP). Migraine Disability Assessment (MIDAS), and the Fatigue Severity Scale (FSS) were evaluated: before PTA; 3-months after PTA; and at final follow-up in 2017. Patients were evaluated with Doppler sonography of the IJVs at 1, 6 and 12 months after PTA and yearly thereafter. Non-parametric statistical analysis was performed using a combination of the Friedman test and Spearman correlation analysis. RESULTS: With the exception of the PP patients there were significant reductions (all p < 0.001) in the MIDAS and FSS scores in the 3-month following PTA. The improvement in MIDAS score following PTA was maintained throughout the follow-up period in both the RR (p < 0.001; mean of 3.55 years) and SP (p = 0.002; mean of 3.52 years) MS cohorts. With FSS, significant improvement was only observed at 2017 follow-up in the RR patients (p < 0.001; mean of 3.37 years). In the headache-positive patients, post-PTA MIDAS score was significantly negatively correlated with the change in the blood flow score in the left (r = -0.238, p = 0.031) and right (r = -0.250, p = 0.023) IJVs in the RR patients and left IJV (r = -0.727, p = 0.026) in the PP patients. In the fatigue-positive cohort, post-PTA FSS score was also significantly negatively correlated with the change in blood flow in the right IJV in the PP patients (r = -0.423, p = 0.010). In addition, the pre and post-PTA FSS scores were significantly positively correlated in the fatigue-positive RR (r = 0.249, p = 0.001) and SP patients (r = 0.272, p = 0.019). CONCLUSIONS: The intervention of PTA was associated with a large and sustained (>3 years) reduction in MIDAS score in both RR and SP MS patients. While a similar initial post-PTA reduction in FSS score was also observed, this was not maintained in the SP and PP patients, although it remained significant at follow-up (>3 years) in the RR MS patients. This suggests that venoplasty might be a useful intervention for treating patients with persistent headaches and selected concomitant obstructive disease of the IJVs.

Bone Density and Cross-sectional Geometry of the Proximal Femur Are Bilaterally Elevated in Elite Cricket Fast Bowlers.

The skeleton of a cricket fast bowler is exposed to a unique combination of gravitational and torsional loading in the form of substantial ground reaction forces delivered through the front landing foot, and anterior-posterior shear forces mediated by regional muscle contractions across the lumbo-pelvic region. The objectives of this study were to compare the hip structural characteristics of elite fast bowlers with recreationally active age-matched controls, and to examine unilateral bone properties in fast bowlers. Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry of the proximal femur was performed in 26 elite male fast bowlers and 26 normally active controls. Hip structural analysis (GE Lunar; enCORE version 15.0) determined areal bone mineral density (BMD) of the proximal femur, and cross-sectional area, section modulus (Z), cross-sectional moment of inertia, and femoral strength index at the narrow region of the femoral neck. Mean femoral neck and trochanter BMD were greater in fast bowlers than in controls (p <0.001). All bone geometry properties, except for cross-sectional moment of inertia, were superior in fast bowlers (p <0.05) following adjustment for height and lean mass. There were no asymmetries in BMD or bone geometry when considering leg dominance of the fast bowlers (p > 0.05). Elite fast bowlers have superior bone characteristics of the proximal femur, with results inferring enhanced resistance to axial compression (cross-sectional area), and bending (Z) forces, and enhanced strength to withstand a fall impact as indicated by their higher femoral strength index. No asymmetries in hip bone properties were identified, suggesting that both torsional and gravitational loading offer significant osteogenic potential.

Factors influencing the hemodynamic response to balloon angioplasty in the treatment of outflow anomalies of internal jugular veins.

OBJECTIVE: Percutaneous transluminal angioplasty (PTA) of the internal jugular veins (IJVs) has been proposed in recent years to treat chronic cerebrovascular venous insufficiency, with discordant results. Moreover, very little is known about the efficacy of PTA in restoring a normal cerebral venous outflow. The aim of this study was to investigate the anatomic factors and patient characteristics that might influence the efficacy of PTA of the IJV. METHODS: There were 797 consecutive patients with venous outflow anomalies who underwent standardized, operator-independent catheter venography and PTA of the IJVs. Before and after PTA, morphologic and hemodynamic anomalies of the IJVs were documented. The primary end point of the study was to evaluate the morphologic factors influencing the efficacy of angioplasty in improving IJV outflow. RESULTS: PTA resulted in an increased outflow through the IJVs in most patients. However, younger individuals with transverse endoluminal defects and higher pre-PTA flows are more likely to respond well to PTA compared with those who exhibit hypoplasia, stenosis, or longitudinal endoluminal defects. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified the factors that influence and could predict the efficacy of PTA in the treatment of IJV anomalies.

A novel application of PageRank and user preference algorithms for assessing the relative performance of track athletes in competition.

Ranking enables coaches, sporting authorities, and pundits to determine the relative performance of individual athletes and teams in comparison to their peers. While ranking is relatively straightforward in sports that employ traditional leagues, it is more difficult in sports where competition is fragmented (e.g. athletics, boxing, etc.), with not all competitors competing against each other. In such situations, complex points systems are often employed to rank athletes. However, these systems have the inherent weakness that they frequently rely on subjective assessments in order to gauge the calibre of the competitors involved. Here we show how two Internet derived algorithms, the PageRank (PR) and user preference (UP) algorithms, when utilised with a simple 'who beat who' matrix, can be used to accurately rank track athletes, avoiding the need for subjective assessment. We applied the PR and UP algorithms to the 2015 IAAF Diamond League men's 100m competition and compared their performance with the Keener, Colley and Massey ranking algorithms. The top five places computed by the PR and UP algorithms, and the Diamond League '2016' points system were all identical, with the Kendall's tau distance between the PR standings and '2016' points system standings being just 15, indicating that only 5.9% of pairs differed in their order between these two lists. By comparison, the UP and '2016' standings displayed a less strong relationship, with a tau distance of 95, indicating that 37.6% of the pairs differed in their order. When compared with the standings produced using the Keener, Colley and Massey algorithms, the PR standings appeared to be closest to the Keener standings (tau distance = 67, 26.5% pair order disagreement), whereas the UP standings were more similar to the Colley and Massey standings, with the tau distances between these ranking lists being only 48 (19.0% pair order disagreement) and 59 (23.3% pair order disagreement) respectively. In particular, the UP algorithm ranked 'one-off' victors more highly than the PR algorithm, suggesting that the UP algorithm captures alternative characteristics to the PR algorithm, which may more suitable for predicting future performance in say knockout tournaments, rather than for use in competitions such as the Diamond League. As such, these Internet derived algorithms appear to have considerable potential for objectively assessing the relative performance of track athletes, without the need for complicated points equivalence tables. Importantly, because both algorithms utilise a 'who beat who' model, they automatically adjust for the strength of the competition, thus avoiding the need for subjective decision making.

A retrospective longitudinal analysis of anthropometric and physical qualities that associate with adult career attainment in junior rugby league players.

OBJECTIVES: To retrospectively compare the longitudinal physical development of junior rugby league players between the Under 13 and 15 age categories in relation to their adult career attainment outcome. DESIGN: Retrospective longitudinal design. METHODS: Fifty-one former junior rugby league players were retrospectively grouped according to their career attainment outcome as adults (i.e., amateur, academy or professional). As juniors, players undertook a physical testing battery on three consecutive annual occasions (Under 13s, 14s, 15s) including height, body mass, sum of four skinfolds, maturation, vertical jump, medicine ball chest throw, 10-60m sprint, agility 505 and estimated V˙O2max . RESULTS: Future professional players were younger than academy players with a greater estimated V˙O2max compared to amateur players. Between Under 13s and 15s, professional players (5.8±2.5cm) increased sitting height more than amateur (4.4±2.1cm) and academy (4.1±1.4cm) players. Logistic regression analyses demonstrated improvements in sitting height, 60m sprint, agility 505 and estimated V˙O2max between amateur and professional players with a high degree of accuracy (sensitivity=86.7%, specificity=91.7%). CONCLUSIONS: Findings demonstrate that the development of anthropometric, maturational and physical qualities in junior rugby league players aged between 13 and 15 years contributed to adulthood career attainment outcomes. Results suggest that age, maturity and size advantages, commonly observed in adolescent focused talent identification research and practice, may not be sensitive to changes in later stages of development in order to correctly identify career attainment. Practitioners should identify, monitor and develop physical qualities of adolescent rugby league players with long-term athlete development in mind.

Identifying Talent in Youth Sport: A Novel Methodology Using Higher-Dimensional Analysis.

Prediction of adult performance from early age talent identification in sport remains difficult. Talent identification research has generally been performed using univariate analysis, which ignores multivariate relationships. To address this issue, this study used a novel higher-dimensional model to orthogonalize multivariate anthropometric and fitness data from junior rugby league players, with the aim of differentiating future career attainment. Anthropometric and fitness data from 257 Under-15 rugby league players was collected. Players were grouped retrospectively according to their future career attainment (i.e., amateur, academy, professional). Players were blindly and randomly divided into an exploratory (n = 165) and validation dataset (n = 92). The exploratory dataset was used to develop and optimize a novel higher-dimensional model, which combined singular value decomposition (SVD) with receiver operating characteristic analysis. Once optimized, the model was tested using the validation dataset. SVD analysis revealed 60 m sprint and agility 505 performance were the most influential characteristics in distinguishing future professional players from amateur and academy players. The exploratory dataset model was able to distinguish between future amateur and professional players with a high degree of accuracy (sensitivity = 85.7%, specificity = 71.1%; p<0.001), although it could not distinguish between future professional and academy players. The validation dataset model was able to distinguish future professionals from the rest with reasonable accuracy (sensitivity = 83.3%, specificity = 63.8%; p = 0.003). Through the use of SVD analysis it was possible to objectively identify criteria to distinguish future career attainment with a sensitivity over 80% using anthropometric and fitness data alone. As such, this suggests that SVD analysis may be a useful analysis tool for research and practice within talent identification.

Internal Jugular Vein Cross-Sectional Area and Cerebrospinal Fluid Pulsatility in the Aqueduct of Sylvius: A Comparative Study between Healthy Subjects and Multiple Sclerosis Patients.

OBJECTIVES: Constricted cerebral venous outflow has been linked with increased cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) pulsatility in the aqueduct of Sylvius in multiple sclerosis (MS) patients and healthy individuals. This study investigates the relationship between CSF pulsatility and internal jugular vein (IJV) cross-sectional area (CSA) in these two groups, something previously unknown. METHODS: 65 relapsing-remitting MS patients (50.8% female; mean age = 43.8 years) and 74 healthy controls (HCs) (54.1% female; mean age = 43.9 years) were investigated. CSF flow quantification was performed on cine phase-contrast MRI, while IJV-CSA was calculated using magnetic resonance venography. Statistical analysis involved correlation, and partial least squares correlation analysis (PLSCA). RESULTS: PLSCA revealed a significant difference (p<0.001; effect size = 1.072) between MS patients and HCs in the positive relationship between CSF pulsatility and IJV-CSA at C5-T1, something not detected at C2-C4. Controlling for age and cardiovascular risk factors, statistical trends were identified in HCs between: increased net positive CSF flow (NPF) and increased IJV-CSA at C5-C6 (left: r = 0.374, p = 0.016; right: r = 0.364, p = 0.019) and C4 (left: r = 0.361, p = 0.020); and increased net negative CSF flow and increased left IJV-CSA at C5-C6 (r = -0.348, p = 0.026) and C4 (r = -0.324, p = 0.039), whereas in MS patients a trend was only identified between increased NPF and increased left IJV-CSA at C5-C6 (r = 0.351, p = 0.021). Overall, correlations were weaker in MS patients (p = 0.015). CONCLUSIONS: In healthy adults, increased CSF pulsatility is associated with increased IJV-CSA in the lower cervix (independent of age and cardiovascular risk factors), suggesting a biomechanical link between the two. This relationship is altered in MS patients.

Severe laryngeal stenosis in newly born twins with 22q11.2 deletion syndrome: A case report.

Chromosome 22q11.2 deletion syndrome is common and presents with a range of clinical features from cardiac malformations to hypocalcemia. Laryngeal anomalies are not a common feature of this syndrome. We describe newly born twins who presented with unexpected severe birth depression secondary to severe type IV glottic webs requiring extensive resuscitation and emergency tracheostomy. They were diagnosed postnatally to have deletion of 22q11.2. The successful resuscitation of these infants at birth was only possible because they were born in a tertiary care hospital. This report shows the critical nature of prenatal diagnosis of 22q11.2 deletion syndrome.