Assessing surface water flood risk and management strategies under future climate change: Insights from an Agent-Based Model.

Climate change and increasing urbanization are projected to result in an increase in surface water flooding and consequential damages in the future. In this paper, we present insights from a novel Agent Based Model (ABM), applied to a London case study of surface water flood risk, designed to assess the interplay between different adaptation options; how risk reduction could be achieved by homeowners and government; and the role of flood insurance and the new flood insurance pool, Flood Re, in the context of climate change. The analysis highlights that while combined investment in property-level flood protection and sustainable urban drainage systems reduce surface water flood risk, the benefits can be outweighed by continued development in high risk areas and the effects of climate change. In our simulations, Flood Re is beneficial in its function to provide affordable insurance, even under climate change. However, the scheme does face increasing financial pressure due to rising surface water flood damages. If the intended transition to risk-based pricing is to take place then a determined and coordinated strategy will be needed to manage flood risk, which utilises insurance incentives, limits new development, and supports resilience measures. Our modelling approach and findings are highly relevant for the ongoing regulatory and political approval process for Flood Re as well as for wider discussions on the potential of insurance schemes to incentivise flood risk management and climate adaptation in the UK and internationally.

A footnote on allostery.

A manuscript on allostery signed by Francis Crick and Jeffries Wyman was sent by Crick to Jacques Monod in 1965. Monod transmitted a copy of the manuscript, upon which he had written several comments, to Jean-Pierre Changeux, then a post-doctoral fellow at the University of California Berkeley in the laboratory of Howard Schachman. Changeux provided a copy to Stuart Edelstein, a graduate student in the same laboratory. The manuscript was never submitted for publication, but Edelstein retained his copy since that time and has edited it for publication in the special issue on allostery. The text emphasized the interpretation of the properties of an allosteric oligomer by characterizing its equivalent monomer. The text also developed the concept of the allosteric range and included a simple equation for calculation of the Hill coefficient from the parameters of the Monod-Wyman-Changeux model.

The impact of molecular biology on neuroscience.

How our brains work is one of the major unsolved problems of biology. This paper describes some of the techniques of molecular biology that are already being used to study the brains of animals. Mainly as a result of the human genome project many new techniques will soon become available which could decisively influence the progress of neuroscience. I suggest that neuroscientists should tell molecular biologists what their difficulties are, in the hope that this will stimulate the production of useful new biological tools.

Constraints on cortical and thalamic projections: the no-strong-loops hypothesis.

The many distinct cortical areas of the macaque monkey visual system can be arranged hierarchically, but not in a unique way. We suggest that the connections between these cortical areas never form strong, directed loops. For connections between the visual cortex and particular thalamic nuclei, we predict that certain types of connections will not be found. If strong, directed loops were to exist, we suggest that the cortex would go into uncontrolled oscillations.

REM sleep and neural nets.

The broad features of rapid eye movement (REM) sleep are reviewed. Memory storage in the brain is probably quite unlike that in a digital computer, being distributed, superimposed and robust. Such memory systems are easily overloaded. If the stored memories share common features, random stimulation often produces mixed outputs. Simulations show that such overloading can be reduced by a process we call 'reverse learning'. We propose that this process is what is happening in REM sleep and that it explains in an unforced manner the condensation commonly found in dreams. Evidence for and against the proposed theory is discussed and several alternative theories are briefly described. The absence of REM sleep in the Enchidna and in two species of dolphins (that have relatively large brains) suggests that REM may allow the brain to be smaller than if REM were lacking.

Are we aware of neural activity in primary visual cortex?

It is usually assumed that people are visually aware of at least some of the neuronal activity in the primary visual area, V1, of the neocortex. But the neuroanatomy of the macaque monkey suggests that, although primates may be aware of neural activity in other visual cortical areas, they are not directly aware of that in area V1. There is some psychophysical evidence in humans that supports this hypothesis.

Looking backwards: a birthday card for the double helix.

This 'birthday' paper outlines very briefly the history of the discovery of the DNA double helix, the way it was received and how it was confirmed. The paper also discusses why, at that time, we foresaw so little of the rapid progress produced by the techniques of recombinant DNA. The key feature of the nucleic acids--discovered by Jim Watson--is their ability to form specific base pairs.

Backwardness of human neuroanatomy.

To interpret the activity of living human brains, their neuroanatomy must be known in detail. New techniques to do this are urgently needed, since most of the methods now used on monkeys cannot be used on humans.