Cyclist safety around trams: A market survey.

Tram systems present safety risks to cyclists, however only limited research has explored this topic, of which most has focused on crash and hospital data, and severe crash events. This paper presents the first known cyclist market survey focused specifically on the experience of cyclists related to safety around trams, including unreported incidents and those that did not result in hospital attendance. Findings suggest that track-skid incidents are more common than track-wedge incidents, in contrast to previous research that emphasizes track-wedging as a larger issue than skidding. This is may be explained by the differing outcomes, with track-wedging more likely to result in injury. This research is thus significant in identifying track skidding as a major risk concern, causing a majority of crashes, while also confirming that track wedging is the major severity concern. In the last five years, 21% of respondents were involved in at least one tram-track-related crash. This was less than the share of respondents involved in falls (50%), crashes relating to road defects (36%) or collisions with motor vehicles (29%). However, half of survey respondents (52%) reported cycling on roads with tram tracks for 0-20% of their cycling, which might suggest that tram track-related crash rates are high given that most inner-city cycling occurs on roads without tracks. Track-skidding was found to be associated with wet conditions. Those involved in at least one track-skid in the last five years where more likely to have been cycling more than 3 years, but involvement in track-wedging was more likely amongst those cycling > 10 years and aged < 45 years. Implications for research and practice are suggested.

The 're-norming' of working from home during COVID-19: A transtheoretical behaviour change model of a major unplanned disruption.

Significant disruptive events have the potential to change travel behaviour in the long-term. COVID-19 has caused the most significant disruption of travel behaviour in living memory. One of the most notable changes has been the increase in working from home, which was forced upon many workers during lockdowns and 'stay at home' orders. But much is still unknown about the long-term impacts of those changes. This study explores the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on changing work from behaviours using the Transtheoretical Model of behaviour change. The Transtheoretical Model has been widely used to study behaviour change in health, with some application to travel behaviour change. In this paper, we explore whether people's 'stage of change' before COVID-19 has an impact on their long-term intent to work from home. We found that only 12% of respondents had considered working from home more before COVID, yet those that had were far more likely to intend to work from home in the long term. In addition, we unpack the influence of 'process of change' factors, some of which point to a potential 're-norming' of attitudes toward working from home. Although self-efficacy (feeling capable to work from home) was an important factor, it was not as important as the attitudes of employers and colleagues toward working from home. Implications of the findings for research and practice are explored.

Enhancing Covid-19 virus spread modeling using an activity travel model.

Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) and its variants are still spreading rapidly with deadly consequences and profound impacts on the global health and world economy. Without a suitable vaccine, mobility restriction has been the most effective method so far to prevent its spreading and avoid overwhelming the heath system of the affected country. The compartmental model SIR (or Susceptible, Infected, and Recovered) is the most popular mathematical model used to predict the course of the COVID-19 pandemic in order to plan the control actions and mobility restrictions against its spreading. A major limitation of this model in relation to modeling the spreading of COVID-19, and the mobility limitation strategy, is that the SIR model does not include mobility or take into account changes in mobility within its structure. This paper develops and tests a new hybrid SIR model; SIR-M which is integrated with an urban activity travel model to explore how it might improve the prediction of pandemic course and the testing of mobility limitation strategies in managing virus spread. The paper describes the enhanced methodology and tests a range of mobility limitation strategies on virus spread outcomes. Implications for policy and research futures are suggested.

Macroscopic road safety impacts of public transport: A case study of Melbourne, Australia.

Mode shift from private vehicle to public transport is often considered as a potential means of improving road safety, given public transport's lower fatality rates. However, little research has examined how public transport travel contributes to road safety at a macroscopic level. Further, there is a limited understanding of the individual effects of different public transport modes. This paper explores the effects of commuting by public transport on road safety at a macroscopic level, using Melbourne as a case study. A random effect negative binomial (RENB) and a conditional autoregressive (CAR) model are adopted to explore links between total and severe crash data to commuting mode shares and a range of other zonal explanatory factors. Overall, results show the great potential of public transport as a road safety solution. It is evident that mode shift from private vehicle to public transport (i.e. train, tram, and bus), for commuting would reduce not only total crashes, but also severe crashes. Modelling also demonstrated that CAR models outperform RENB models. In addition, results highlight safety issues related to commuting by motorbike and active transport. Effects of sociodemographic, transport network, and land use factors on crashes at the macroscopic level are also discussed.

Application of Strategic Transport Model and Google Maps to Develop Better Clot Retrieval Stroke Service.

Background and purpose: Two hubs are designated to provide endovascular clot retrieval (ECR) for the State of Victoria, Australia. In an earlier study, Google Maps application programming interface (API) was used to perform modeling on the combination of hospitals optimizing for catchment in terms of current traveling time and road conditions. It is not known if these findings would remain the same if the modeling was performed with a large-scale transport demand model such as Victorian Integrated Transport Model (VITM). This model is developed by the Victorian State Government Transport has the capability to forecast travel demand into the future including future road conditions which is not possible with a Google Maps based applications. The aim of this study is to compare the travel time to potential ECR hubs using both VITM and the Google Maps API and model stability in the next 5 and 10 years. Methods: The VITM was used to generate travel time from randomly generated addresses to four existing ECR capable hubs in Melbourne city, Australia (i.e., Royal Melbourne Hospital/RMH, Monash Medical Center/MMC, Alfred Hospital/ALF, and Austin Hospital/AUS) and the optimal service boundaries given a delivering time threshold are then determined. Results: The strategic transport model and Google map methods were similar with the R 2 of 0.86 (peak and off peak) and the Nash-Sutcliffe model of efficiency being 0.83 (peak) and 0.76 (off-peak travel). Futures modeling using VITM found that this proportion decreases to 82% after 5 years and 80% after 10 years. The combination of RMH and ALF provides coverage for 74% of cases, 68% by 5 years, and 66% by 10 years. The combination of RMH and AUS provides coverage for 70% of cases in the base case, 65% at 5 years, and 63% by 10 years. Discussion: The results from strategic transport model are similar to those from Google Maps. In this paper we illustrate how this method can be applied in designing and forecast stroke service model in different cities in Australia and around the world.

Exploring road design factors influencing tram road safety - Melbourne tram driver focus groups.

Melbourne, Australia has the largest tram/streetcar network in the world including the largest mixed traffic tram operating environment. Therefore, Melbourne tram drivers are responsible for controlling one of the heaviest vehicles on road ranging from shared tram lanes to exclusive tram lanes. In addition to different tram lane configurations, tram drivers need to follow different traffic signal phases at intersections including tram priority signals as well as need to serve passengers at various types of closely spaced tram stops. Despite all these challenges, no research has explored tram driver perceptions of the risk factors on different tram route road design configurations. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate how tram drivers' safety perceptions alter along various tram route sections, signal settings and stop configurations. A tram driver focus group approach was adopted for this research involving thirty tram drivers (4 female and 26 male drivers). The tram drivers' age ranged from 29 to 63 years, with an average age of 47.6 years (standard deviation of 10.1 years), and their experience of tram driving ranged from 1.17 to 31 years, with an average experience of 12.5 years (standard deviation of 10.2 years). The participating tram drivers perceived that the raised tram tracks and tramways with raised yellow curbing beside tracks are safer lane priority features on the Melbourne tram network compared to full-time, part-time and mixed traffic tram lanes. They regarded 'hook turns' as a safe form of tram signal priority treatment at intersections and platform tram stops as the safest tram stop design for all passengers among all other tram stop designs in Melbourne. Findings of this research could enhance the understanding of crash risk factors for different tram route features and thus can offer effective planning strategies for transit agencies to improve tram road safety.

Exploring the impacts of factors contributing to tram-involved serious injury crashes on Melbourne tram routes.

Previous research is limited regarding factors influencing tram-involved serious injury crashes. The aim of this study is to identify key vehicle, road, environment and driver related factors associated with tram-involved serious injury crashes. Using a binary logistic regression modelling approach, the following factors were identified to be significant in influencing tram-involved fatal crashes in Melbourne: tram floor height, tram age, season, traffic volume, tram lane priority and tram travel speed. Low floor trams, older trams, tram priority lanes and higher tram travelling speeds are more likely to increase tram-involved fatal crashes. Higher traffic volume decreases the likelihood of serious crashes. Fatal crashes are more likely to occur during spring and summer. Findings from this study may offer ideas for future research in the area of tram safety and help to develop countermeasures to prevent specific fatality types from occurring.

Application of a random effects negative binomial model to examine tram-involved crash frequency on route sections in Melbourne, Australia.

Safety is a key concern in the design, operation and development of light rail systems including trams or streetcars as they impose crash risks on road users in terms of crash frequency and severity. The aim of this study is to identify key traffic, transit and route factors that influence tram-involved crash frequencies along tram route sections in Melbourne. A random effects negative binomial (RENB) regression model was developed to analyze crash frequency data obtained from Yarra Trams, the tram operator in Melbourne. The RENB modelling approach can account for spatial and temporal variations within observation groups in panel count data structures by assuming that group specific effects are randomly distributed across locations. The results identify many significant factors effecting tram-involved crash frequency including tram service frequency (2.71), tram stop spacing (-0.42), tram route section length (0.31), tram signal priority (-0.25), general traffic volume (0.18), tram lane priority (-0.15) and ratio of platform tram stops (-0.09). Findings provide useful insights on route section level tram-involved crashes in an urban tram or streetcar operating environment. The method described represents a useful planning tool for transit agencies hoping to improve safety performance.

An empirical Bayes safety evaluation of tram/streetcar signal and lane priority measures in Melbourne.

OBJECTIVE: Streetcars/tram systems are growing worldwide, and many are given priority to increase speed and reliability performance in mixed traffic conditions. Research related to the road safety impact of tram priority is limited. This study explores the road safety impacts of tram priority measures including lane and intersection/signal priority measures. METHOD: A before-after crash study was conducted using the empirical Bayes (EB) method to provide more accurate crash impact estimates by accounting for wider crash trends and regression to the mean effects. Before-after crash data for 29 intersections with tram signal priority and 23 arterials with tram lane priority in Melbourne, Australia, were analyzed to evaluate the road safety impact of tram priority. RESULTS: The EB before-after analysis results indicated a statistically significant adjusted crash reduction rate of 16.4% after implementation of tram priority measures. Signal priority measures were found to reduce crashes by 13.9% and lane priority by 19.4%. A disaggregate level simple before-after analysis indicated reductions in total and serious crashes as well as vehicle-, pedestrian-, and motorcycle-involved crashes. In addition, reductions in on-path crashes, pedestrian-involved crashes, and collisions among vehicles moving in the same and opposite directions and all other specific crash types were found after tram priority implementation. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that streetcar/tram priority measures result in safety benefits for all road users, including vehicles, pedestrians, and cyclists. Policy implications and areas for future research are discussed.

Safety impacts of platform tram stops on pedestrians in mixed traffic operation: A comparison group before-after crash study.

Tram stops in mixed traffic environments present a variety of safety, accessibility and transport efficiency challenges. In Melbourne, Australia the hundred year-old electric tram system is progressively being modernized to improve passenger accessibility. Platform stops, incorporating raised platforms for level entry into low floor trams, are being retro-fitted system-wide to replace older design stops. The aim of this study was to investigate the safety impacts of platform stops over older design stops (i.e. Melbourne safety zone tram stops) on pedestrians in the context of mixed traffic tram operation in Melbourne, using an advanced before-after crash analysis approach, the comparison group (CG) method. The CG method evaluates safety impacts by taking into account the general trends in safety and the unobserved factors at treatment and comparison sites that can alter the outcomes of a simple before-after analysis. The results showed that pedestrian-involved all injury crashes reduced by 43% after platform stop installation. This paper also explores a concern that the conventional CG method might underestimate safety impacts as a result of large differences in passenger stop use between treatment and comparison sites, suggesting differences in crash risk exposure. To adjust for this, a modified analysis explored crash rates (crash counts per 10,000 stop passengers) for each site. The adjusted results suggested greater reductions in pedestrian-involved crashes after platform stop installation: an 81% reduction in pedestrian-involved all injury crashes and 86% reduction in pedestrian-involved FSI crashes, both are significant at the 95% level. Overall, the results suggest that platform stops have considerable safety benefits for pedestrians. Implications for policy and areas for future research are explored.

Factors affecting the probability of bus drivers being at-fault in bus-involved accidents.

Previous research has provided little insight into factors that influence the probability of bus drivers being at-fault in bus-involved accidents. In this study, an analysis was conducted on accident data compiled by a bus company that include an assessment on whether the bus driver was deemed by the company to hold primary responsibility for accident occurrence. Using a mixed logit modelling approach, roadway/environmental, vehicle and driver related variables that were identified to be influential were road type, speed limit, traffic/lighting conditions, bus priority, bus age/length and driver's age/gender/experience/historic at-fault accident record. Results were indicative of possible confined road-space issues that bus drivers face along routes with roadside traffic friction and point to the provision of exclusive right of way for buses as a possible way to address this. Results also suggest benefits in assigning routes comprising mainly divided roads as well as newer and shorter buses to less experienced drivers.

Bus accident analysis of routes with/without bus priority.

This paper summarises findings on road safety performance and bus-involved accidents in Melbourne along roads where bus priority measures had been applied. Results from an empirical analysis of the accident types revealed significant reduction in the proportion of accidents involving buses hitting stationary objects and vehicles, which suggests the effect of bus priority in addressing manoeuvrability issues for buses. A mixed-effects negative binomial (MENB) regression and back-propagation neural network (BPNN) modelling of bus accidents considering wider influences on accident rates at a route section level also revealed significant safety benefits when bus priority is provided. Sensitivity analyses done on the BPNN model showed general agreement in the predicted accident frequency between both models. The slightly better performance recorded by the MENB model results suggests merits in adopting a mixed effects modelling approach for accident count prediction in practice given its capability to account for unobserved location and time-specific factors. A major implication of this research is that bus priority in Melbourne's context acts to improve road safety and should be a major consideration for road management agencies when implementing bus priority and road schemes.

Efficacy and safety of adefovir dipivoxil in kidney recipients, hemodialysis patients, and patients with renal insufficiency.

BACKGROUND: This study analyzes the biochemical, serological, and virological efficacy and the safety of adefovir dipivoxil in patients with renal disturbances. METHODS: Twelve patients with lamivudine-resistant hepatitis B virus (HBV) chronic infection were treated for a median time of 15 (3-19) months. The daily dosage was 10 mg initially and then adjusted according to renal function. RESULTS: Median (range) ALT values remained stable: 55 (13-117) and 37 (17-266) UI/L. After the 12th month, the median decline in serum HBV DNA was from 8.76 (6.3-9.7) to 2.97 (1.15-5.65) log10 Eq/ml (median decline of -5.5 log10). No virologic breakthrough was observed. One of the six HBeAg-positive patients lost HBe Ag but without HBe seroconversion; none had HBs Ag loss. There were no significant clinical and biochemical adverse effects. In the 11 nonhemodialysed patients, the creatinine clearance significantly improved from 70 (30-100) to 88 (38-125) ml/mn (P=0.01) and the mean serum creatinine levels increased only slightly from 114 (91-839) to 130 (81-561) micromol/ml (NS). Serum phosphorus remained stable. The urinary level of protein decreased from 0.16 (0.08-8.63) to 0.12 (0.01-0.74) g/day (NS). CONCLUSIONS: Adefovir dipivoxil is safe for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B in patients with varying degrees of renal dysfunction and lamivudine-resistant HBV and results in biochemical and virological efficacy similar to that reported in the general population.

Renal safety of adefovir dipivoxil in patients with chronic hepatitis B: two double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled studies.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of adefovir dipivoxil (ADV) nephrotoxicity has been previously reported with the 60 and 120 mg daily dose in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). We report a complete analysis on the renal tolerance of ADV at the currently approved dose of 10 mg daily for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B. METHODS: To investigate the efficacy, safety, and the tolerability of two dosing regimens of ADV (10 mg daily or 30 mg daily), two double-blind, placebo-controlled studies were performed in patients with chronic hepatitis B and compensated liver disease who were not undergoing current treatment and who had evidence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) replication. RESULTS: There was no overall median change from baseline at week 48 in serum creatinine or serum phosphorus levels in the ADV 10 mg group. In the ADV 30 mg group there was a slight increase of 0.2 mg/dL in median serum creatinine levels, and decrease of 0.1 mg/dL in serum phosphorus levels at week 48. Serum creatinine increase and hypophosphatemia were more frequently observed in patients receiving ADV 30 mg daily compared with ADV 10 mg and placebo. There were no grade 4 proteinuria, hematuria, or glycosuria events. CONCLUSION: Mild nephrotoxicity was demonstrated with the dose of 30 mg daily. Nephrotoxicity, as defined by an increase >/=0.5 mg/dL from baseline in serum creatinine or a serum phosphorus value of <1.5 mg/dL on two consecutive occasions, was not observed in patients treated with ADV 10 mg for a median follow-up period of approximately 64 weeks.