Cost-Effectiveness of AI for Risk-Stratified Breast Cancer Screening.

Importance: Previous research has shown good discrimination of short-term risk using an artificial intelligence (AI) risk prediction model (Mirai). However, no studies have been undertaken to evaluate whether this might translate into economic gains. Objective: To assess the cost-effectiveness of incorporating risk-stratified screening using a breast cancer AI model into the United Kingdom (UK) National Breast Cancer Screening Program. Design, Setting, and Participants: This study, conducted from January 1, 2023, to January 31, 2024, involved the development of a decision analytical model to estimate health-related quality of life, cancer survival rates, and costs over the lifetime of the female population eligible for screening. The analysis took a UK payer perspective, and the simulated cohort consisted of women aged 50 to 70 years at screening. Exposures: Mammography screening at 1 to 6 yearly screening intervals based on breast cancer risk and standard care (screening every 3 years). Main Outcomes and Measures: Incremental net monetary benefit based on quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and National Health Service (NHS) costs (given in pounds sterling; to convert to US dollars, multiply by 1.28). Results: Artificial intelligence-based risk-stratified programs were estimated to be cost-saving and increase QALYs compared with the current screening program. A screening schedule of every 6 years for lowest-risk individuals, biannually and triennially for those below and above average risk, respectively, and annually for those at highest risk was estimated to give yearly net monetary benefits within the NHS of approximately £60.4 (US $77.3) million and £85.3 (US $109.2) million, with QALY values set at £20 000 (US $25 600) and £30 000 (US $38 400), respectively. Even in scenarios where decision-makers hesitate to allocate additional NHS resources toward screening, implementing the proposed strategies at a QALY value of £1 (US $1.28) was estimated to generate a yearly monetary benefit of approximately £10.6 (US $13.6) million. Conclusions and Relevance: In this decision analytical model study of integrating risk-stratified screening with a breast cancer AI model into the UK National Breast Cancer Screening Program, risk-stratified screening was likely to be cost-effective, yielding added health benefits at reduced costs. These results are particularly relevant for health care settings where resources are under pressure. New studies to prospectively evaluate AI-guided screening appear warranted.

Evaluation of a Faith-Placed Health Education Service on Bowel Cancer Screening in Mosques in East London.

BACKGROUND: Bowel cancer screening using faecal immunochemical testing is provided in the United Kingdom with the aim of reducing mortality from colorectal cancer. However, there are low participant rates among ethnic minorities across the United Kingdom. Faith-placed interventions have the potential to improve screening rates among such populations, but studies examining their effectiveness are scarce. METHODS: We delivered a presentation on bowel cancer screening to 204 Muslims in seven mosques in East London (intervention group). All participants completed a questionnaire regarding attitudes, perceptions and knowledge of bowel cancer screening before and after the presentation. Concurrently, we administered the questionnaire to 72 subjects attending a mosque that did not receive the presentation (comparison group). RESULTS: The intervention group showed a greater willingness to do the test (90% vs. 67%, p < 0.001) and to recommend it to others (96% vs. 74%, p < 0.001), ability to complete the test by themselves (94% vs. 56%, p < 0.001) and confidence in noticing symptoms (78% vs. 32%, p < 0.001) after the presentation compared to before. There was a significant difference between the intervention group post-presentation and the comparison group on intention to do the test (90% vs. 79%, p = 0.02), recommending it to others (96% vs. 83%, p < 0.001), and confidence in their ability to complete the test by themselves (94% vs. 63%, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: A culture-sensitive, faith-placed health education intervention delivered in mosques can substantially improve knowledge of bowel cancer screening and increase the intention to participate in the screening programme. PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION: The intervention presentation was developed using insights from four public involvement sessions with four to six members representative of the East London Muslim community. The sessions sought attendees' thoughts on appropriate ways to approach the intervention design for their community and asked for their views on the acceptability, appropriateness of messaging, format/design and likely impact of the presentation. Their views were then utilised to improve the presentation.

Breast Cancer Screening Interval: Effect on Rate of Late-Stage Disease at Diagnosis and Overall Survival.

PURPOSE: Controversy continues regarding the effect of screening mammography on breast cancer outcomes. We evaluated late-stage cancer rate and overall survival (OS) for different screening intervals using a real-world institutional research data mart. METHODS: Patients having both a cancer registry record of new breast cancer diagnosis and prediagnosis screening history between 2004 and 2019 were identified from our institutional research breast data mart. Time interval between the two screening mammograms immediately preceding diagnosis and the time to cancer diagnosis were determined. Screening interval was deemed annual if ≤15 months, biennial if >15 and ≤27 months, intermittent if >27 months, and baseline if only one prediagnosis screen was known. The primary end point was late-stage cancer (TNM stage IIB or worse), and the secondary end point was OS. The association of screening interval and late-stage cancer was analyzed using multivariable logistic regression adjusting for prediagnosis characteristics. Proportional hazards regression was used for survival analysis. Potential lead time was analyzed using survival from a uniform fixed time point. RESULTS: In total, 8,145 patients with breast cancer had prediagnosis screening mammography in the timeframe. The percentage of late-stage cancers diagnosed increased significantly with screening interval with 9%, 14%, and 19% late stages for annual, biennial, and intermittent groups (P < .001), respectively. The trend persisted regardless of age, race, and menopausal status. Biennial and intermittent groups had substantially worse OS than the annual screened group, with relative hazards of 1.42 (95% CI, 1.11 to 1.82) and 2.69 (95% CI, 2.11 to 3.43), respectively, and 1.39 (95% CI, 1.08 to 1.78) and 2.01 (95% CI, 1.58 to 2.55) after adjustment for potential lead time. CONCLUSION: Annual mammographic screening was associated with lower risk of late-stage cancer and better OS across clinical and demographic subgroups. Our study suggests benefit of annual screening for women 40 years and older.

Long-term effects of once-only flexible sigmoidoscopy screening on colorectal cancer incidence and mortality: 21-year follow-up of the UK Flexible Sigmoidoscopy Screening randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Flexible sigmoidoscopy screening reduces colorectal cancer incidence and mortality; however, uncertainty exists about the duration of protection and differences by sex and age. We assessed effects of once-only flexible sigmoidoscopy screening after 21 years' follow-up. METHODS: The UK Flexible Sigmoidoscopy Screening Trial is a multicentre randomised controlled trial that recruited men and women aged 55-64 years from general practices serving 14 hospitals. Among participants indicating that they would attend flexible sigmoidoscopy screening if invited, randomisation (2:1) to the control (no further contact) or intervention (invited to once-only flexible sigmoidoscopy screening) group was performed centrally in blocks of 12, stratified by centre, general practice, and household type. Masking of intervention was infeasible. Primary outcomes were colorectal cancer incidence and mortality. The Kaplan-Meier method estimated cumulative incidence. Primary analyses estimated intention-to-treat hazard ratios (HRs) and risk differences, overall and stratified by subsite, sex, and age. The trial is registered with ISRCTN, number 28352761. FINDINGS: Among participants recruited between Nov 14, 1994, and March 30, 1999, 170 432 were eligible and 113 195 were randomly assigned to the control group and 57 237 were randomly assigned to the intervention group. 406 participants were excluded from analyses (268 in the control group and 138 in the intervention group), leaving 112 927 participants in the control group (55 336 [49%] men and 57 591 [51%] women) and 57 099 in the intervention group (27 966 [49%] men and 29 103 [51%] women). Of participants who were invited to be screened, 40 624 (71%) attended screening. Median follow-up was 21·3 years (IQR 18·0-22·2). In the invited-to-screening group, colorectal cancer incidence was reduced compared with the control group (1631 vs 4201 cases; cumulative incidence at 21 years was 3·18% [95% CI 3·03 to 3·34] vs 4·16% [4·04 to 4·29]; HR 0·76 [95% CI 0·72 to 0·81]) with 47 fewer cases per 100 000 person-years (95% CI -56 to -37). Colorectal cancer mortality was also reduced in the invited-to-screening group compared with the control group (502 vs 1329 deaths; cumulative incidence at 21 years was 0·97% [0·88 to 1·06] vs 1·33% [1·26 to 1·40]; HR 0·75 [0·67 to 0·83]) with 16 fewer deaths per 100 000 person-years (-21 to -11). Effects were particularly evident in the distal colorectum (726 incident cancer cases in the invited-to-screening group vs 2434 cases in the control group; HR 0·59 [0·54 to 0·64]; 47 fewer cases per 100 000 person-years [-54 to -41]; 196 cancer deaths in the invited-to-screening group vs 708 deaths in the control group; HR 0·55 [0·47 to 0·64]; 15 fewer deaths per 100 000 person-years [-19 to -12]) and not the proximal colon (871 incident cancer cases in the invited-to-screening group vs 1749 cases in the control group; HR 0·98 [0·91 to 1·07]; one fewer case per 100 000 person-years [-8 to 5]; 277 cancer deaths in the invited-to-screening group vs 547 deaths in the control group; HR 1·00 [0·86 to 1·15]; zero fewer deaths per 100 000 person-years [-4 to 4]). The HR for colorectal cancer incidence was lower in men (0·70 [0·65-0·76]) than women (0·86 [0·79 to 0·93]; pinteraction=0·0007) but there was no difference by age. INTERPRETATION: We show that once-only flexible sigmoidoscopy screening reduces colorectal cancer incidence and mortality for two decades and provide important data to inform colorectal cancer screening guidelines. FUNDING: National Institute for Health and Care Research Health Technology Assessment Programme and the Medical Research Council.

Associations Between Dual Antiplatelet Therapy Score and Long-Term Mortality After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: Analysis of More Than 27,000 Patients.

BACKGROUND: The dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) score was developed to identify patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) who are likely to derive benefit (score ≥ 2) or harm (score < 2) from extended DAPT beyond 1 year after PCI in terms of ischemic and bleeding outcomes. We examined the associations between DAPT score at index PCI and long-term mortality from an all-comers PCI registry in patients receiving DAPT according to the standard of care. METHODS: We retrospectively examined prospectively collected data from the Melbourne Interventional Group PCI database (2005-2018) and grouped patients as having DAPT score ≥ 2 or < 2. Long-term mortality was assessed from the Australian National Death Index linkage. The primary end point was long-term mortality as determined using survival analysis. Secondary end points included in-hospital events and 30-day major adverse cardiac events (MACE), a composite of death, myocardial infarction, or target vessel revascularisation. RESULTS: Of 27,740 study patients, 9402 (33.9%) had DAPT score ≥ 2. Patients with DAPT score ≥ 2 were younger, included more women, and had a higher prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors. Patients with DAPT score ≥ 2 had higher in-hospital mortality (3.0% vs 1.0%), major bleeding (2.3% vs 1.6%), 30-day MACE (7.1% vs 3.1%), and long-term mortality at a median follow-up of 5.17 years (21.9% vs 16.5%) P < 0.001 for all. CONCLUSIONS: One-third of all-comer patients undergoing PCI had a DAPT score ≥ 2 with greater short-term ischemic and bleeding risk, and higher long-term mortality. Risk assessment with the DAPT score may guide the duration and intensity of DAPT beyond the early post-PCI period.

Comparing the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of text-message reminders and telephone patient navigation to improve the uptake of faecal immunochemical test screening among non-responders in London: a randomised controlled trial protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Participation in bowel cancer screening is lower in regions where there is high ethnic diversity and/or socioeconomic deprivation. Interventions, such as text message reminders and patient navigation (PN), have the potential to increase participation in these areas. As such, there is interest in the comparative effectiveness of these interventions to increase bowel cancer screening participation, as well as their relative cost-effectiveness. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This study will use a three-arm randomised controlled trial design to compare the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of text message reminders and PN to increase the uptake of bowel cancer screening in London. Participants will be individuals who have not returned a completed faecal immunochemical test kit within 13 weeks of receiving a routine invitation from the London bowel cancer screening hub. Participants will be randomised (in a 1:1:1 ratio) to receive either (1) usual care (ie, 'no intervention'), (2) a text message reminder at 13 weeks, followed by repeated text message reminders at 15, 17 and 19 weeks (in the event of non-response) or (3) a text message reminder at 13 weeks, followed by PN telephone calls at 15, 17 and 19 weeks in the event of non-response. The primary endpoint will be participation in bowel cancer screening, defined as 'the return of a completed kit by week 24'. Statistical analysis will use multivariate logistic regression and will incorporate pairwise comparisons of all three groups, adjusted for multiple testing. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Approvals to conduct the research have been obtained from University College London's Joint Research Office (Ref: 150666), the Screening Research, Innovation and Development Advisory Committee ('RIDAC', Ref: 2223 014 BCSP Kerrison), the Health Research Authority (Ref: 22/WM/0212) and the Confidentiality Advisory Group (Ref: 22/CAG/0140). Results will be conveyed to stakeholders, notably those managing the screening programme and published in peer-reviewed journals/presented at academic conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN17245519.

Strong association between reduction of late-stage cancers and reduction of cancer-specific mortality in meta-regression of randomized screening trials across multiple cancer types.

BACKGROUND: Late-stage cancer incidence has been proposed as an early surrogate for mortality in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of cancer screening; however, its validity has not been systematically evaluated across screening RCTs of different cancers. METHODS: We conducted a meta-regression analysis of cancer screening RCTs that reported both late-stage cancer incidence and cancer mortality. Based on a systematic literature review, we included 33 RCTs of screening programs targeting seven cancer types, including lung (n = 12), colorectal (n = 8), breast (n = 5), and prostate (n = 4), among others. We regressed the relative reduction of cancer mortality on the relative reduction of late-stage cancer incidence, inversely weighted for each RCT by the variance of estimated mortality reduction. RESULTS: Across cancer types, the relative reduction of late-stage cancer incidence was linearly associated with the relative reduction of cancer mortality. Specifically, we observed this association for lung (R2 = 0.79 and 0.996 in three recent large trials), breast (R2 = 0.94), prostate (R2 = 0.98), and colorectal cancer (R2 = 0.75 for stage III/IV cancers and 0.93 for stage IV cancers). Trials with a 20% or greater reduction in late-stage cancers were more likely to achieve a significant reduction in cancer mortality. Our results also showed that no reduction of late-stage cancer incidence was associated with no or minimal reduction in cancer mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Meta-regression of historical screening RCTs showed a strong linear association between reductions in late-stage cancer incidence and cancer mortality.

Impact of single round of low dose CT lung cancer screening on cause of mortality in different socio-economic groups: a post-hoc analysis of long-term follow-up of the UKLS trial.

Background: Lower socioeconomic status, as measured by the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), is associated with higher rates of smoking-related disease mortality, and with poor uptake of cancer screening. Here we explore whether socioeconomic status impacts the effectiveness of a single round of low-dose-CT screening, or impacts other causes of death, in the UKLS LDCT screening trial. Methods: IMD quintiles were defined according to UK-wide data, with the deprived group defined as the lower two quintiles (Q1-2) and the less deprived as Q3-5. Follow-up data was obtained for lung cancer diagnosis (median follow-up 9.1 years) and cause of death (median follow-up 9.9 years). Outcomes were compared based on IMD group and trial arm (CT or control). Findings: More deprived quintiles were less likely to respond to the questionnaire, but this population was more likely to be selected for screening by the LLP risk model. Lower IMD quintiles benefitted from low-dose-CT screening in terms of lung cancer survival (HR 1.89, 95% CI 1.16-3.08) to the same extent as upper quintiles (HR 1.87, 95% CI 1.07-3.26). However, there was a bigger impact on deaths due to COPD and emphysema in more deprived quintiles. Interpretation: Whilst LDCT screening benefit for lung cancer was similar, significant impact on the rates of death from other smoking-related diseases, notably COPD and emphysema, was seen primarily in lower socioeconomic groups. Future research is required to confirm how lung cancer screening benefits other disease outcomes. Funding: NIHR Health Technology Assessment Programme; NIHR Policy Research programme; Roy Castle Lung Cancer Foundation.

Associations Between Metabolic Syndrome and Long-Term Mortality in Patients who underwent Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: An Australian Cohort Analysis.

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) provides significant risk for coronary disease, however long-term prognosis after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) has been understudied. We assessed the prevalence and outcomes of patients with MetS from an Australian PCI cohort. We retrospectively examined data from the Melbourne Interventional Group multicenter PCI registry using a modified definition for MetS including ≥3 of the following: hypertension, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia, and body mass index ≥30 kg/m2. Thirty-day outcomes and long-term mortality were compared with patients without MetS. Cox regression methods were used to assess the multivariable effect of MetS on long-term mortality. Of 41,146 patients, 12,228 (34%) had MetS. Patients with MetS experienced greater 30-day myocardial infarction (2.2% vs 1.8%, p = 0.013), whereas patients without MetS had a trend for greater 30-day mortality (3.0% vs 3.4%, p = 0.051) and greater in-hospital major bleeding (1.7% vs 2.4%, p <0.001). After a median follow-up of 5.62 years (Q1 2.03, Q3 8.89), patients with MetS experienced greater mortality (24% vs 19%, p <0.001). After adjustment, MetS was not an independent predictor of long-term mortality (hazard ratio 0.95 confidence interval 0.86 to 1.05, p = 0.35). In sensitivity analyses, MetS-Diabetic patients had the highest, and MetS-NonDiabetic obese patients had the lowest long-term mortality. One in 3 patients who underwent all-comer PCI presented with MetS and experienced greater long-term mortality compared with others. However, this association was lost after adjustment for baseline confounders, highlighting that MetS is a marker of risk after PCI. Our findings support the obesity paradox and confirm robust associations between diabetes mellitus and long-term mortality.