Crustal permeability generated through microearthquakes is constrained by seismic moment.

We link changes in crustal permeability to informative features of microearthquakes (MEQs) using two field hydraulic stimulation experiments where both MEQs and permeability evolution are recorded simultaneously. The Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM) model effectively predicts permeability evolution and ultimate permeability increase. Our findings confirm the form of key features linking the MEQs to permeability, offering mechanistically consistent interpretations of this association. Transfer learning correctly predicts permeability evolution of one experiment from a model trained on an alternate dataset and locale, which further reinforces the innate interdependency of permeability-to-seismicity. Models representing permeability evolution on reactivated fractures in both shear and tension suggest scaling relationships in which changes in permeability ( Δ k ) are linearly related to the seismic moment ( M ) of individual MEQs as Δ k ∝ M . This scaling relation rationalizes our observation of the permeability-to-seismicity linkage, contributes to its predictive robustness and accentuates its potential in characterizing crustal permeability evolution using MEQs.

Laboratory earthquakes decipher control and stability of rupture speeds.

Earthquakes are destructive natural hazards with damage capacity dictated by rupture speeds. Traditional dynamic rupture models predict that earthquake ruptures gradually accelerate to the Rayleigh wave speed with some of them further jumping to stable supershear speeds above the Eshelby speed (~[Formula: see text] times S wave speed). However, the 2018 Mw 7.5 Palu earthquake, among several others, significantly challenges such a viewpoint. Here we generate spontaneous shear ruptures on laboratory faults to confirm that ruptures can indeed attain steady subRayleigh or supershear propagation speeds immediately following nucleation. A self-similar analysis of dynamic rupture confirms our observation, leading to a simple model where the rupture speed is uniquely dependent on a driving load. Our results reproduce and explain a number of enigmatic field observations on earthquake speeds, including the existence of stable subEshelby supershear ruptures, early onset of supershear ruptures, and the correlation between the rupture speed and the driving load.

Ridgecrest aftershocks at Coso suppressed by thermal destressing.

Geothermal and volcanic areas are prone to earthquake triggering1,2. The Coso geothermal field in California lies just north of the surface ruptures driven by the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake (moment magnitude Mw = 7.1), in an area where changes in coseismic stress should have triggered aftershocks3,4. However, no aftershocks were observed there4. Here we show that 30 years of geothermal heat production at Coso depleted shear stresses within the geothermal reservoir. Thermal contraction of the reservoir initially induced substantial seismicity, as observed in the Coso geothermal reservoir, but subsequently depleted the stress available to drive the aftershocks during the Ridgecrest sequence. This destressing changed the faulting style of the reservoir and impeded aftershock triggering. Although unlikely to have been the case for the Ridgecrest earthquake, such a destressed zone could, in principle, impede the propagation of a large earthquake.

Constraining maximum event magnitude during injection-triggered seismicity.

Understanding mechanisms controlling fluid injection-triggered seismicity is key in defining strategies to ameliorate it. Recent triggered events (e.g. Pohang, Mw 5.5) have exceeded predictions of average energy release by a factor of >1000x, necessitating robust methodologies to both define critical antecedent conditions and to thereby constrain anticipated event size. We define maximum event magnitudes resulting from triggering as a function of pre-existing critical stresses and fluid injection volume. Fluid injection experiments on prestressed laboratory faults confirm these estimates of triggered moment magnitudes for varied boundary conditions and injection rates. In addition, observed ratios of shear slip to dilation rates on individual faults signal triggering and may serve as a measurable proxy for impending rupture. This new framework provides a robust method of constraining maximum event size for preloaded faults and unifies prior laboratory and field observations that span sixteen decades in injection volume and four decades in length scale.

CO2/CH4 Competitive Adsorption in Shale: Implications for Enhancement in Gas Production and Reduction in Carbon Emissions.

CO2/CH4 interaction determines the prospects for complementary enhanced gas recovery (EGR) associated with CO2 sequestration in shale. We characterize the competitive adsorption of CO2 and CH4 in shale using low-field NMR. Competitive sorption of CO2 relative to CH4 is defined as the CO2/CH4 competitive adsorption ratio (CO2/CH4 CAR for short) when CO2 and CH4 have the same original partial pressure in shale. Results indicate the CO2/CH4 CAR decreases with the logarithm of increasing pressure. Observed CO2/CH4 CARs are on the order of 4.28-5.81 (YDN-1) to 3.43-5.57 (YDN-2), describing the remarkable competitive advantage of CO2 sorption relative to CH4 for shale. Results also indicate that increasing the CO2/CH4 pressure ratio (1) increases the adsorption capacity of shales to CO2 and decreases that to CH4 logarithmically with pressure, and (2) boosts CO2-CH4 displacement and generates greater EGR efficiency in shale, where the EGR efficiency can be inferred by the CO2/CH4 pressure ratio using a Langmuir-like function. Furthermore, the maximum sequestration capacity of adsorbed CO2 during CO2-CH4 competition is on the order of ∼3.87 cm3/g (YDN-1) to ∼5.13 cm3/g (YDN-2). These promising results for EGR and CO2 storage reveal the considerable potential for carbon capture and geological sequestration in shale.

Changes in pore structure of coal caused by coal-to-gas bioconversion.

ABSTARCT: Microbial enhanced coalbed methane (ME-CBM) recovery is critically examined as a viable technology for natural gas recovery from coalbed methane (CBM) reservoirs. Since the majority of gas-in-place (GIP) is stored as an adsorbed phase in fine pores of coal matrix, the nano-pore structure directly influences gas storage and transport properties. Only limited studies have quantified the alteration of the nano-pore structure due to ME-CBM treatment. This study examines the evolution of the pore structure using a combination of small angle X-ray scattering (SAXS), low-pressure N2 and CO2 adsorption (LPGA) and high-pressure methane adsorption methods. The results show that the surface fractal dimension decreases for the two bioconverted coals compared to the untreated coal. After bio-treatment, the mesopore surface area and pore volume decrease with the average pore diameter increases, while the micropore surface area increases with pore volume decreases. Both inaccessible meso-/micropore size distributions decrease after bioconversion, while the accessible micropore size distribution increases, making a portion of closed micropore network accessible. In addition, the methane adsorption capacities increase after bio-treatment, which is confirmed by the increase of micropore surface area. A conceptual physical model of methanogenesis is proposed based on the evolution of the pore structure.

A relation to predict the failure of materials and potential application to volcanic eruptions and landslides.

A theoretical explanation of a time-to-failure relation is presented, with this relationship then used to describe the failure of materials. This provides the potential to predict timing (tf - t) immediately before failure by extrapolating the trajectory as it asymptotes to zero with no need to fit unknown exponents as previously proposed in critical power law behaviors. This generalized relation is verified by comparison with approaches to criticality for volcanic eruptions and creep failure. A new relation based on changes with stress is proposed as an alternative expression of Voight's relation, which is widely used to describe the accelerating precursory signals before material failure and broadly applied to volcanic eruptions, landslides and other phenomena. The new generalized relation reduces to Voight's relation if stress is limited to increase at a constant rate with time. This implies that the time-derivatives in Voight's analysis may be a subset of a more general expression connecting stress derivatives, and thus provides a potential method for forecasting these events.

Interactions and exchange of CO2 and H2O in coals: an investigation by low-field NMR relaxation.

The mechanisms by which CO2 and water interact in coal remain unclear and these are key questions for understanding ECBM processes and defining the long-term behaviour of injected CO2. In our experiments, we injected helium/CO2 to displace water in eight water-saturated samples. We used low-field NMR relaxation to investigate CO2 and water interactions in these coals across a variety of time-scales. The injection of helium did not change the T2 spectra of the coals. In contrast, the T2 spectra peaks of micro-capillary water gradually decreased and those of macro-capillary and bulk water increased with time after the injection of CO2. We assume that the CO2 diffuses through and/or dissolves into the capillary water to access the coal matrix interior, which promotes desorption of water molecules from the surfaces of coal micropores and mesopores. The replaced water mass is mainly related to the Langmuir adsorption volume of CO2 and increases as the CO2 adsorption capacity increases. Other factors, such as mineral composition, temperature and pressure, also influence the effective exchange between water and CO2. Finally, we built a quantified model to evaluate the efficiency of water replacement by CO2 injection with respect to temperature and pressure.

INDUCED SEISMICITY. Seismicity triggered by fluid injection-induced aseismic slip.

Anthropogenic fluid injections are known to induce earthquakes. The mechanisms involved are poorly understood, and our ability to assess the seismic hazard associated with geothermal energy or unconventional hydrocarbon production remains limited. We directly measure fault slip and seismicity induced by fluid injection into a natural fault. We observe highly dilatant and slow [~4 micrometers per second (µm/s)] aseismic slip associated with a 20-fold increase of permeability, which transitions to faster slip (~10 µm/s) associated with reduced dilatancy and micro-earthquakes. Most aseismic slip occurs within the fluid-pressurized zone and obeys a rate-strengthening friction law µ = 0.67 + 0.045ln(v/v0) with v0 = 0.1 µm/s. Fluid injection primarily triggers aseismic slip in this experiment, with micro-earthquakes being an indirect effect mediated by aseismic creep.

Implications of magma transfer between multiple reservoirs on eruption cycling.

Volcanic eruptions are episodic despite being supplied by melt at a nearly constant rate. We used histories of magma efflux and surface deformation to geodetically image magma transfer within the deep crustal plumbing of the Soufrière Hills volcano on Montserrat, West Indies. For three cycles of effusion followed by discrete pauses, supply of the system from the deep crust and mantle was continuous. During periods of reinitiated high surface efflux, magma rose quickly and synchronously from a deflating mid-crustal reservoir (at about 12 kilometers) augmented from depth. During repose, the lower reservoir refilled from the deep supply, with only minor discharge transiting the upper chamber to surface. These observations are consistent with a model involving the continuous supply of magma from the deep crust and mantle into a voluminous and compliant mid-crustal reservoir, episodically valved below a shallow reservoir (at about 6 kilometers).

Dissolution-induced preferential flow in a limestone fracture.

Flow in a rock fracture is surprisingly sensitive to the evolution of flow paths that develop as a result of dissolution. Net dissolution may either increase or decrease permeability uniformly within the fracture, or may form a preferential flow path through which most of the injected fluid flows, depending on the prevailing ambient mechanical and chemical conditions. A flow-through test was completed on an artificial fracture in limestone at room temperature under ambient confining stress of 3.5 MPa. The sample was sequentially circulated by water of two different compositions through the 1500 h duration of the experiment; the first 935 h by tap groundwater, followed by 555 h of distilled water. Measurements of differential pressures between the inlet and the outlet, fluid and dissolved mass fluxes, and concurrent X-ray CT imaging and sectioning were used to characterize the evolution of flow paths within the limestone fracture. During the initial circulation of groundwater, the differential pressure increased almost threefold, and was interpreted as a net reduction in permeability as the contacting asperities across the fracture are removed, and the fracture closes. With the circulation of distilled water, permeability initially reduces threefold, and ultimately increases by two orders of magnitude. This spontaneous switch from net decrease in permeability, to net increase occurred with no change in flow rate or applied effective stress, and is attributed to the evolving localization of flow path as evidenced by CT images. Based on the X-ray CT characterizations, a flow path-dependent flow model was developed to simulate the evolution of flow paths within the fracture and its influence on the overall flow behaviors of the injected fluid in the fracture.