Long-term trends in Swiss rivers sampled continuously over 39 years reflect changes in geochemical processes and pollution.

Long-term changes of 14 water constituents measured in continuously and water discharge proportionally collected samples of four Swiss rivers over a period of 39 years are analyzed using several statistical techniques. Possible drivers and causes for the identified trends and shifts are explained by consideration of catchment characteristics and anthropogenic activities. Water temperatures increased by 0.8-1.3 °C, whereas water discharges remained largely unchanged. Concentrations of alkalinity, total hardness, Ca, and Mg regulated by dominant carbonate lithologies in catchments increased by up to 10%. We attribute this change to an increase in the partial pressure of CO2 in the subsurface, provoked by increasing temperatures. Re-oligotrophication processes in lakes also influence the behavior of alkalinity and silicic acid. In contrast to concentrations, most loads did not change significantly, due to their large variances. Therefore, no changes in overall weathering rates of carbonate rocks can be detected. The outgassing of CO2 in rivers from the place of carbonate dissolution to measurement stations amounts up to 6% (mean) of CO2 sequestered (mean 1.1 mol m-2 a-1) by the weathering of rock minerals. Changes in alkalinity/Ca/Mg ratios indicate an increase in calcite precipitation over time. Total nitrogen concentrations and loads peaked at the end of the 1980s and then decreased up to 50%, while NO3 concentrations showed almost no changes. This dynamic matches the changes in the agricultural N balance. Concentrations and loads of Na and Cl increased up to 60% due to an increase in the various uses of rock salt.

Forecasting Groundwater Temperature with Linear Regression Models Using Historical Data.

Although temperature is an important determinant of many biogeochemical processes in groundwater, very few studies have attempted to forecast the response of groundwater temperature to future climate warming. Using a composite linear regression model based on the lagged relationship between historical groundwater and regional air temperature data, empirical forecasts were made of groundwater temperature in several aquifers in Switzerland up to the end of the current century. The model was fed with regional air temperature projections calculated for greenhouse-gas emissions scenarios A2, A1B, and RCP3PD. Model evaluation revealed that the approach taken is adequate only when the data used to calibrate the models are sufficiently long and contain sufficient variability. These conditions were satisfied for three aquifers, all fed by riverbank infiltration. The forecasts suggest that with respect to the reference period 1980 to 2009, groundwater temperature in these aquifers will most likely increase by 1.1 to 3.8 K by the end of the current century, depending on the greenhouse-gas emissions scenario employed.