Microbiology and Climate Change: a Transdisciplinary Imperative.

Climate change is a complex problem involving nonlinearities and feedback that operate across scales. No single discipline or way of thinking can effectively address the climate crisis. Teams of natural scientists, social scientists, engineers, economists, and policymakers must work together to understand, predict, and mitigate the rapidly accelerating impacts of climate change. Transdisciplinary approaches are urgently needed to address the role that microorganisms play in climate change. Here, we demonstrate with case studies how diverse teams and perspectives provide climate-change insight related to the range expansion of emerging fungal pathogens, technological solutions for harmful cyanobacterial blooms, and the prediction of disease-causing microorganisms and their vector populations using massive networks of monitoring stations. To serve as valuable members of a transdisciplinary climate research team, microbiologists must reach beyond the boundaries of their immediate areas of scientific expertise and engage in efforts to build open-minded teams aimed at scalable technologies and adoptable policies.

Estimating selection pressures on HIV-1 using phylogenetic likelihood models.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV-1) can rapidly evolve due to selection pressures exerted by HIV-specific immune responses, antiviral agents, and to allow the virus to establish infection in different compartments in the body. Statistical models applied to HIV-1 sequence data can help to elucidate the nature of these selection pressures through comparisons of non-synonymous (or amino acid changing) and synonymous (or amino acid preserving) substitution rates. These models also need to take into account the non-independence of sequences due to their shared evolutionary history. We review how we have developed these methods and have applied them to characterize the evolution of HIV-1 in vivo. To illustrate our methods, we present an analysis of compartment-specific evolution of HIV-1 env in blood and cerebrospinal fluid and of site-to-site variation in the gag gene of subtype C HIV-1.

Evidence for positive selection driving the evolution of HIV-1 env under potent antiviral therapy.

In HIV-infected individuals treated with potent antiretroviral therapy, viable virus can be isolated from latently infected cells several years into therapy, due to the long life of these cells, ongoing replication replenishing this population, or both. We have analysed the V3 region of the HIV-1 env gene isolated from six patients who have undergone 2 years of potent antiretroviral therapy without frank failure of viral suppression. We show that in two (and possibly three) patients, the sequence changes between baseline virus and virus isolated from infected cells persisting 2 years into infection result from positive selection driving adaptive evolution, occurring either prior to or during therapy. Our analyses suggest low-level replication despite absence of drug resistance due to drug sanctuary sites, or to low-level ongoing replication in the presence of alterations in the selective environment during therapy, perhaps due to a decline in HIV-specific immune responsiveness or changes in target cell pools. In one patient, genetic divergence between baseline plasma and infected cells isolated during therapy may reflect the long half-life of some of these persistent cell populations and the divergence of viral subpopulations that occurred prior to therapy.

Genetic drift and within-host metapopulation dynamics of HIV-1 infection.

Most HIV replication occurs in solid lymphoid tissue, which has prominent architecture at the histological level, which separates groups of productively infected CD4(+) cells. Nevertheless, current population models of HIV assume panmixis within lymphoid tissue. We present a simple "metapopulation" model of HIV replication, where the population of infected cells is comprised of a large number of small populations, each of which is established by a few founder viruses and undergoes turnover. To test this model, we analyzed viral genetic variation of infected cell subpopulations within the spleen and demonstrated the action of founder effects as well as significant variation in the extent of genetic differentiation between subpopulations among patients. The combination of founder effects and subpopulation turnover can result in an effective population size much lower than the actual population size and may contribute to the importance of genetic drift in HIV evolution despite a large number of infected cells.

Residual human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) Type 1 RNA and DNA in lymph nodes and HIV RNA in genital secretions and in cerebrospinal fluid after suppression of viremia for 2 years.

Residual viral replication persists in a significant proportion of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients receiving potent antiretroviral therapy. To determine the source of this virus, levels of HIV RNA and DNA from lymphoid tissues and levels of viral RNA in serum, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), and genital secretions in 28 patients treated for < or =2.5 years with indinavir, zidovudine, and lamivudine were examined. Both HIV RNA and DNA remained detectable in all lymph nodes. In contrast, HIV RNA was not detected in 20 of 23 genital secretions or in any of 13 CSF samples after 2 years of treatment. HIV envelope sequence data from plasma and lymph nodes from 4 patients demonstrated sequence divergence, which suggests varying degrees of residual viral replication in 3 and absence in 1 patient. In patients receiving potent antiretroviral therapy, the greatest virus burden may continue to be in lymphoid tissues rather than in central nervous system or genitourinary compartments.

Evolution of lamivudine resistance in human immunodeficiency virus type 1-infected individuals: the relative roles of drift and selection.

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) rapidly develops resistance to lamivudine during monotherapy, typically resulting in the appearance at position 184 in reverse transcriptase (RT) of isoleucine instead of the wild-type methionine (M184I) early in therapy, which is later replaced by valine (M184V). M184V reduces viral susceptibility to drug in vitro by approximately 100-fold, but also results in a lower processivity of RT. We show that a drop in absolute viral fitness associated with the outgrowth of M184V results in a drop in viral load only in individuals with high CD4(+) counts, from whom we estimate the relative fitness of M184V in the presence of drug to be approximately 10% of that of the wild type prior to therapy. The timing of emergence of the M184V mutant varies widely between infected individuals. From analysis of the frequency of M184I and M184V mutants determined at multiple time points in seven individuals during lamivudine therapy, we estimated the fitness advantage of M184V over M184I during therapy to be approximately 23% on average. We have also estimated the average ratio of the frequencies of the two mutants prior to therapy to be 0. 2:1, with a range from 0.12:1 to 0.33:1. We have found that the differences between individuals in the rate of evolution of lamivudine resistance arise due to genetic drift affecting the relative frequency of M184I and M184V prior to therapy. These results show that stochastic effects can be significant in HIV evolution, even when there is large fitness difference between mutant and wild-type variants.

Gulf War syndrome: proposed causes.

Many veterans of the Persian Gulf War suffer from vague symptoms that have collectively become known as the Gulf War syndrome. Potential explanations include infectious disease, chemical exposure, and psychological stress. To date, no single etiology has been identified to explain Gulf War syndrome conclusively. It may be that multiple illnesses with overlapping symptoms and causes are responsible.

Evolution of envelope sequences of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 in cellular reservoirs in the setting of potent antiviral therapy.

In human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients treated with potent antiretroviral therapy, the persistence of latently infected cells may reflect the long decay half-life of this cellular reservoir or ongoing viral replication at low levels with continuous replenishment of the population or both. To address these possibilities, sequences encompassing the C2 and V3 domains of HIV-1 env were analyzed from virus present in baseline plasma and from viral isolates obtained after 2 years of suppressive therapy in six patients. The presence of sequence changes consistent with evolution was demonstrated for three subjects and correlated with less complete suppression of viral replication, as indicated by the rapidity of the initial virus load decline or the intermittent reappearance of even low levels of detectable viremia. Together, these results provide evidence for ongoing replication. In the remaining three patients, virus recovered after 2 years of therapy was either genotypically contemporary with or ancestral to virus present in plasma 2 years before, indicating that virus recovery had indeed resulted from activation of latently infected cells.

Lymphocyte dynamics, apoptosis and HIV infection.

Death of HIV-infected CD4+ cells and HIV-induced death of uninfected CD4+ cells by apoptosis have been suggested to be important factors in causing the gradual progressive decline of CD4+ cells in the blood of HIV-positive patients. Recent advances in our knowledge of the dynamics of infection and the mechanism of apoptosis are reviewed with the aid of a mathematical model.

Quasispecies dynamics and the emergence of drug resistance during zidovudine therapy of HIV infection.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the roles of mutation, competition and population dynamics in the emergence of drug resistant mutants during zidovudine therapy. DESIGN: A mathematical model of the population dynamics of the viral quasispecies during zidovudine therapy was investigated. METHODS: The model was used to simulate changes in the numbers of uninfected and infected cells and the composition of the viral quasispecies in the years following initiation of therapy. Resulting scenarios in asymptomatic and AIDS patients were compared. The model was also used to investigate the efficacy of a treatment regimen involving alternating zidovudine and dideoxyinosine therapy. RESULTS: The behaviour of the model can be divided into three stages. Before therapy, mutation maintains a small pool of resistant mutants, outcompeted to very low levels by sensitive strains. When therapy begins there is a dramatic fall in the total viral load and resistant strains suddenly have the competitive advantage. Thus, it is resistant strains that infect the rising number of uninfected CD4+ cells. During this second stage the rapid effects of population dynamics swamp any effects of mutation between strains. When the populations of infected and uninfected cells approach their treatment equilibrium levels, mutation again becomes important in the slow generation of highly resistant strains. CONCLUSIONS: The short-term reduction in viral replication at the initiation of therapy generates a pool of uninfected cells which cause the eventual increase in viral burden. This increase is associated with (but not caused by) a rise in frequency of resistant strains which are at a competitive advantage in the presence of the drug. When therapy is ceased, reversion of resistance is slow as resistant strains are nearly as fit as sensitive strains in the absence of drug.

Germinal centre destruction as a major pathway of HIV pathogenesis.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-induced destruction of follicular dendritic cells (FDCs), which are important in immunological memory, may be a major pathway of HIV pathogenesis. We use a mathematical model to investigate this hypothesis and conclude that a low level of FDC destruction could ultimately result in loss of control of HIV. Their slow turnover makes them good candidates for the part of the immune system that fails during the long period of HIV infection. As FDC destruction is essentially a misdirected immune response, too much immunotherapy may be detrimental. Our model shows how to estimate this critical level of immunotherapy. We derive an expression for the time taken to the loss of immune control. Transient changes in the viral growth rate before the immune system fails do not affect this time, providing a possible explanation for the results of the Concorde trial. We suggest that inducible B cell function is a good potential marker of disease progression, indicating the functional ability of the FDC network. Finally, we rereview data in the light of the FDC theory, paying particular attention to data on CD4+ numbers and function that are inconsistent with the classical view of HIV pathogenesis.