Accelerating evidence synthesis for safety assessment through ClinicalTrials.gov platform: a feasibility study.

BACKGROUND: Standard systematic review can be labor-intensive and time-consuming meaning that it can be difficult to provide timely evidence when there is an urgent public health emergency such as a pandemic. The ClinicalTrials.gov provides a promising way to accelerate evidence production. METHODS: We conducted a search on PubMed to gather systematic reviews containing a minimum of 5 studies focused on safety aspects derived from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of pharmacological interventions, aiming to establish a real-world dataset. The registration information of each trial from eligible reviews was further collected and verified. The meta-analytic data were then re-analyzed by using 1) the full meta-analytic data with all trials and 2) emulated rapid data with trials that had been registered and posted results on ClinicalTrials.gov, under the same synthesis methods. The effect estimates of the full meta-analysis and rapid meta-analysis were then compared. RESULTS: The real-world dataset comprises 558 meta-analyses. Among them, 56 (10.0%) meta-analyses included RCTs that were not registered in ClinicalTrials.gov. For the remaining 502 meta-analyses, the median percentage of RCTs registered within each meta-analysis is 70.1% (interquartile range: 33.3% to 88.9%). Under a 20% bias threshold, rapid meta-analyses conducted through ClinicalTrials.gov achieved accurate point estimates ranging from 77.4% (using the MH model) to 83.1% (using the GLMM model); 91.0% to 95.3% of these analyses accurately predicted the direction of effects. CONCLUSIONS: Utilizing the ClinicalTrials.gov platform for safety assessment with a minimum of 5 RCTs holds significant potential for accelerating evidence synthesis to support urgent decision-making.

Performance characteristics of genus or species-specific Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) for the microbial diagnosis of joint infections: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Joint infections cause significant morbidity and mortality. Rapid diagnosis enables prompt initiation of appropriate antimicrobial therapy and surgical treatment. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the accuracy of genus- or species-specific polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in diagnosing joint infections. The literature databases were searched for articles from January 2010 to December 2022. The meta-analysis using the split component synthesis (SCS) method, included 20 studies with 2,457 adult participants. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, diagnostic odds ratio, and AUC of PCR were 49 % (95 % CI [37.9-60.2]), 95.7 % (95 % CI [91.6-97.8]), 21.32, and 0.82 respectively. Sensitivity was highest for sonicate fluid and lowest for periprosthetic tissue. The mean turnaround time to results was 4.7 hours (SD 1.1). PCR is a favourable option for diagnosing joint infections due to its rapid results, but it has low sensitivity. To enhance diagnostic yield, the test should be used in conjunction with other methods.

Post-marketing surveillance of 10,392 herpes zoster vaccines doses in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Immunisation against herpes zoster is recommended for adults aged ≥ 50 years. Two vaccines, a live attenuated (ZVL, Zostavax®) and an adjuvant recombinant subunit (HZ/su, Shingrix®), are available in Australia. Immunisation guidelines are shifting their recommendations towards HZ/su because of higher efficacy in preventing herpes zoster and associated complications. However, there are limited post-marketing data comparing the safety profiles of these vaccines. METHODS: Data from SmartVax, an active surveillance system for monitoring adverse events following immunisation (AEFIs) utilised by > 450 clinics throughout Australia, were analysed. Data from patients aged ≥ 50 years, who received ZVL or HZ/su, from 1 June 2021 to 31 May 2022, at clinics that utilised SmartVax were included. The proportion of records where patients who reported any, local, and systemic AEFIs after receiving ZVL or HZ/su were compared using multivariable logistic regression models. RESULTS: Data from 10,392 immunisation records (n = 8341 ZVL; n = 2051 HZ/su) were included. The proportion of AEFIs reported was higher with HZ/su (41.9 % [any], 33.8 % [local], 25.2 % [systemic]) than with ZVL (8.7 % [any], 6.2 % [local], 3.5 % [systemic]). After controlling for demographic variables, HZ/su presented a 6-fold increase in the odds (OR 6.44; 95 %CI: 5.57-7.46) of a reported AEFI compared to ZVL. Only 59 (0.6 %) of vaccinations lead to medical attention being sought due to an AEFI. CONCLUSIONS: While rates of AEFIs was higher with HZ/su than ZVL, most AEFIs were mild and did not require medical attention. Our findings support the change in vaccine recommendations and the use of HZ/su in immunisation programs.

Rapid Diagnostic Tests and Antimicrobial Stewardship Programs for the Management of Bloodstream Infection: What Is Their Relative Contribution to Improving Clinical Outcomes? A Systematic Review and Network Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Evidence about the clinical impact of rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for the diagnosis of bloodstream infections is limited, and whether RDT are superior to conventional blood cultures (BCs) embedded within antimicrobial stewardship programs (ASPs) is unknown. METHODS: We performed network meta-analyses using results from studies of patients with bloodstream infection with the aim of comparing the clinical impact of RDT (applied on positive BC broth or whole blood) to conventional BC, both assessed with and without ASP with respect to mortality, length of stay (LOS), and time to optimal therapy. RESULTS: Eighty-eight papers were selected, including 25 682 patient encounters. There was an appreciable amount of statistical heterogeneity within each meta-analysis. The network meta-analyses showed a significant reduction in mortality associated with the use of RDT + ASP versus BC alone (odds ratio [OR], 0.72; 95% confidence interval [CI], .59-.87) and with the use of RDT + ASP versus BC + ASP (OR, 0.78; 95% CI, .63-.96). No benefit in survival was found associated with the use of RDT alone nor with BC + ASP compared to BC alone. A reduction in LOS was associated with RDT + ASP versus BC alone (OR, 0.91; 95% CI, .84-.98) whereas no difference in LOS was shown between any other groups. A reduced time to optimal therapy was shown when RDT + ASP was compared to BC alone (-29 hours; 95% CI, -35 to -23), BC + ASP (-18 hours; 95% CI, -27 to -10), and to RDT alone (-12 hours; 95% CI, -20 to -3). CONCLUSIONS: The use of RDT + ASP may lead to a survival benefit even when introduced in settings already adopting effective ASP in association with conventional BC.

Malaria cases in China acquired through international travel, 2013-2022.

BACKGROUND: Despite the World Health Organisation certifying China malaria-free in 2021, the risk of local transmission caused by imported malaria cases remains a significant clinical and public health issue. It is necessary to present the changing trends of malaria in China and discuss the role of travel medicine services in consolidating malaria elimination. METHODS: This study systematically reviewed articles and reports related to human malaria from 2013 to 2022 published in international and Chinese databases. Data on malaria (i.e. number of cases, Plasmodium spp., diagnostic method, country of acquisition, provinces with high risk of re-introduction and transmission) were collected and synthesised, then summarised using descriptive statistics. RESULTS: Overall, 24 758 cases of malaria (>99.5% laboratory confirmed, > 99.2% imported, 0.5% fatal) were reported in China from 2013 to 2022, with a downward trend over the years (4128 cases in 2013 compared to 843 cases in 2022; χ2 trend p-value = 0.005). The last locally acquired case was reported in 2017. P. falciparum (65.5%) was the most common species identified, followed by P. vivax (20.9%) and P. ovale (10.0%). Two Pheidole knowlesi cases were also identified in 2014 and 2017 in returned travellers from Malaysia and Indonesia, respectively. The most common countries of malaria acquisition were Ghana, Angola, and Myanmar. P. vivax was mainly detected in returned travellers from Myanmar, while P. falciparum and P. ovale were detected in travellers from Sub-Saharan Africa. Imported cases were mainly reported in Yunnan, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Guangxi, Shandong, Zhejiang, and Henan provinces, where large numbers of Chinese people travel overseas for work. CONCLUSION: Returned travellers from malaria-endemic countries pose a significant risk of malaria re-introduction to China. Travel medicine should be strengthened to improve the capacity and accessibility of both pre- and post-travel services, including malaria prophylaxis and prompt diagnosis of illness in returned travellers.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of sexually transmitted infections and blood-borne viruses in travellers.

BACKGROUND: Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and blood-borne viruses (BBVs) impose a global health and economic burden. International travellers facilitate the spread of infectious diseases, including STIs. Hence, this review assessed the prevalence/proportionate morbidity of travellers with STIs and sexually transmitted BBVs and factors associated with the infection in this population. METHODS: PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Embase and Cochrane Library were searched from inception of the databases until November 2022. Published analytical observational studies reporting the prevalence/proportionate morbidity of travellers with STIs and factors associated with STIs by type of traveller [i.e. tourists, business travellers, students, visiting friends or relatives (VFRs), international truck drivers, backpackers, expatriates and men who have sex with men (MSM)] were included. The selection of articles, data extraction and risk of bias assessment were conducted by two independent reviewers. Meta-analyses were conducted for each STI by clinical presentation and type of traveller. RESULTS: Thirty-two studies (n = 387 731 travellers) were included; 19 evaluated the proportionate morbidity of STIs among symptomatic travellers, while 13 examined the prevalence of STIs in asymptomatic travellers. The highest proportionate morbidity was found among VFRs (syphilis, 1.67%; 95% CI: 1.03-2.81%), backpackers (Chlamydia trachomatis, 6.58%; 95% CI: 5.96-7.25%) and MSM (HIV [2.50%;95% CI: 0.44-12.88%], gonorrhoea [4.17%; 95% CI: 1.1.5-13.98%], lymphogranuloma venereum [4.17%;95% CI: 1.1.5-13.98%] and HAV [20.0%; 95% CI: 14.99-26.17%]). The highest prevalence of STIs among asymptomatic were found in MSM (HIV [25.94%; 95% CI: 22.21-30.05%] and HBV [24.90%; 95% CI: 21.23-28.96%]) and backpackers (C. trachomatis, 3.92%; 95% CI: 2.72-5.32%). Short duration of the trip (<1 month), not having pre-travel consultation, travelling to Southeast Asia and being unvaccinated for HBV were identified as risk factors for STIs. CONCLUSION: Strategies to prevent STIs and sexually transmitted BBVs should be discussed at pre-travel consultations, and recommendations should be prioritized in high-risk groups of travellers, such as backpackers, VFRs and MSMs. Additionally, healthcare providers should tailor recommendations for safe sex practices to individual travellers' unique needs.

Influence of lack of blinding on the estimation of medication-related harms: a retrospective cohort study of randomized controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: Empirical evidence suggests that lack of blinding may be associated with biased estimates of treatment benefit in randomized controlled trials, but the influence on medication-related harms is not well-recognized. We aimed to investigate the association between blinding and clinical trial estimates of medication-related harms. METHODS: We searched PubMed from January 1, 2015, till January 1, 2020, for systematic reviews with meta-analyses of medication-related harms. Eligible meta-analyses must have contained trials both with and without blinding. Potential covariates that may confound effect estimates were addressed by restricting trials within the comparison or by hierarchical analysis of harmonized groups of meta-analyses (therefore harmonizing drug type, control, dosage, and registration status) across eligible meta-analyses. The weighted hierarchical linear regression was then used to estimate the differences in harm estimates (odds ratio, OR) between trials that lacked blinding and those that were blinded. The results were reported as the ratio of OR (ROR) with its 95% confidence interval (CI). RESULTS: We identified 629 meta-analyses of harms with 10,069 trials. We estimated a weighted average ROR of 0.68 (95% CI: 0.53 to 0.88, P < 0.01) among 82 trials in 20 meta-analyses where blinding of participants was lacking. With regard to lack of blinding of healthcare providers or outcomes assessors, the RORs were 0.68 (95% CI: 0.53 to 0.87, P < 0.01 from 81 trials in 22 meta-analyses) and 1.00 (95% CI: 0.94 to 1.07, P = 0.94 from 858 trials among 155 meta-analyses) respectively. Sensitivity analyses indicate that these findings are applicable to both objective and subjective outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Lack of blinding of participants and health care providers in randomized controlled trials may underestimate medication-related harms. Adequate blinding in randomized trials, when feasible, may help safeguard against potential bias in estimating the effects of harms.

Integrating sexual and reproductive health into pre-travel consultations.

BACKGROUND: Casual sex during travel is a major preventable factor in the global transmission of sexually transmissible infections (STI). Pre-travel consults present an excellent opportunity for practitioners to educate travellers about sexual and reproductive health (SRH) and safety. This scoping review aims to explore and understand the extent to which SRH is included in pre-travel consultations. METHODS: PubMed, Embase, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Scopus, Medline and Web of Science were systematically searched for primary research articles exploring whether health care practitioners (HCP) included SRH in pre-travel consultations. Extracted findings were synthesized and presented in narrative form. RESULTS: Findings across 13 articles suggest HCPs infrequently broached SRH in pre-travel consultations with HCP discomfort, and lack of time and resources presented as key barriers. Urban practice settings, HCP experience, training in travel medicine and traveller characteristics such as sexual orientation were positively associated with discussions about SRH. SRH advice reported was general in nature, primarily focusing on safer sex, condoms or unspecified STI advice. Risk assessments based solely on age or stereotypes around sexual preferences led to key aspects of SRH care being missed for some (e.g. SRH was less likely to be discussed with older travellers). CONCLUSIONS: HCPs frequently miss opportunities to integrate SRH into pre-travel consultations. Strategies to promote HCP confidence and awareness present a promising means to boost the frequency and quality of SRH advice disseminated. Integrating culturally safe and responsive SRH history-taking and advice into pre-travel consultations may contribute to global reductions in STI transmission and promote traveller SRH well-being.

Comparison of bias adjustment in meta-analysis using data-based and opinion-based methods.

INTRODUCTION: Several methods exist for bias adjustment of meta-analysis results, but there has been no comprehensive comparison with unadjusted methods. We compare 6 bias-adjustment methods with 2 unadjusted methods to examine how these different methods perform. METHODS: We re-analyzed a meta-analysis that included 10 randomized controlled trials. Two data-based methods (Welton's data-based approach and Doi's quality effects model) and 4 opinion-informed methods (opinion-based approach, opinion-based distributions combined statistically with data-based distributions, numerical opinions informed by data-based distributions, and opinions obtained by selecting areas from data-based distributions) were used to incorporate methodological quality information into the meta-analytical estimates. The results of these 6 methods were compared with 2 unadjusted models: the DerSimonian-Laird random effects model and Doi's inverse variance heterogeneity model. RESULTS: The 4 opinion-based methods returned the random effects model estimates with wider uncertainty. The data-based and quality effects methods returned different results and aligned with the inverse variance heterogeneity method with some minor downward bias adjustment. CONCLUSION: Opinion-based methods seem to only add uncertainty rather than bias adjust.

Pediatric Central Venous Access Device Lock Solutions: A Network Meta-analysis.

CONTEXT: Central venous access device (CVAD) locks are routine interventions used to prevent and treat complications, such as infection, thrombosis, and catheter occlusion. OBJECTIVE: To compare and rank lock-solutions for prevention or treatment of complications in pediatrics. Design Systematic review and network meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES: Five databases and 2 clinical trial registries were searched. STUDY SELECTION: Published and unpublished randomized controlled trials that enrolled pediatric patients with a CVAD and compared the effectiveness of lock-solutions. DATA EXTRACTION: Data extraction was conducted by 2 reviewers. Odds ratio (OR) for prevention or treatment of CVAD-associated bloodstream infection (BSI), thrombosis, occlusion, CVAD-failure, and mortality were calculated, with point estimates ranking lock-solutions. RESULTS: Twenty-nine studies were included. Chelating agents and antibiotic locks given as prevention were associated with lower odds (OR: 0.11; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.02-0.67; moderate-quality; OR: 0.19; 95% CI: 0.05-0.79, high-quality, respectively) of CVAD-associated BSI compared with heparinized saline (reference). Preventative thrombolytic agents had lower odds (OR: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.44-0.93; low-quality) of CVAD occlusion, whereas ethanol had higher odds (OR: 2.84, 95% CI: 1.31-6.16; high-quality) compared with heparinized saline (reference). No lock solution had effects on thrombosis prevention or treatment, CVAD-failure, CVAD-associated BSI treatment failure, or mortality. LIMITATIONS: There was substantial uncertainty around the point estimates because of the limited number of studies for outcomes and study heterogeneity. More high-quality studies are needed to confirm the efficacy of lock solutions. CONCLUSIONS: Chelating agents and antibiotic locks may be effective for CVAD-associated BSI prevention in pediatrics. Thrombolytic agents can be an option for CVAD occlusion prevention, whereas ethanol may not be recommended.

The provision of sexual and reproductive health information and services to travellers: an exploratory survey of Australian travel medicine clinicians.

BACKGROUND: International travel can increase the risk of exposure to infectious diseases including sexually transmissible infections (STI). Pre-travel medical consultation provides an opportunity for travel-related health risk assessments and advice. This study explored how travel medicine clinicians integrate sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services into clinical practice. METHODS: A convenience sample of travel medicine clinicians completed a cross-sectional survey online or via hard-copy disseminated at an annual national Australian travel medicine conference. RESULTS: Of the 67 respondents, most (n , 51; 76.1%) had a postgraduate qualification relevant to travel medicine and 55.2% (n , 37) had worked in travel medicine for over 10years. Only 22.4% (n , 15) reported conducting a SRH history/STI risk assessment for all travel patients. STI testing pre-departure was conducted on patient request (48, 71.6%), if symptomatic (32, 47.8%) or based on risk history (28, 41.8%). SRH information pre-departure was most frequently provided if prompted by patient questions (n , 42; 62.7%), or based on the patient's history (n , 37; 55.2%). Over half the sample (n , 40; 59.7%) expressed interest in further training in SRH. CONCLUSION: Providing and engaging with additional training may assist travel medicine clinicians to take a more proactive approach to SRH consultations and STI testing. Additional research is needed to explore models of care that will allow comprehensive SRH and STI services to be integrated into standard pre- and post-travel care.

Mortality, hospital length of stay, and recurrent bloodstream infections associated with extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli in a low prevalence region: A 20-year population-based large cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: This population-based study aimed to investigate the risk factors and effect of extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL) production on clinical outcomes in Escherichia coli bloodstream infection (BSI) patients. METHODS: The study population was defined as patients aged ≥15 years with E. coli BSI in Queensland, Australia, from 2000 to 2019. Outcomes were defined as 30-day case fatality, hospital length of stay (LOS), and recurrent E. coli BSI. RESULTS: A total of 27,796 E. coli BSIs were identified, of which 1112 (4.0%) were ESBL-producers. Patients with ESBL-Ec BSI were more frequently older, male, with comorbidity, recurrent E. coli BSI, and less likely with community-associated community-onset infections as compared to non-ESBL-Ec BSI patients. The standardized mortality rate of ESBL-Ec BSI increased 8-fold from 2000 to 2019 (1 to 8 per million residents) and case fatality was 12.8% (n = 142) at 30 days from positive blood culture. Patients with ESBL-Ec BSI were not at higher risk of 30-day case fatality (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.83-1.17), but had higher risk of recurring episodes (adjusted subdistribution HR = 1.58, 95% CI: 1.29-1.92) and observed 14% longer LOS (adjusted incidence rate ratio = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.10-1.18) than non-ESBL-Ec BSI patients. CONCLUSION: In this large patient cohort, ESBL-Ec BSI did not increase case fatality risk but observed higher hospital LOS and recurrent E. coli BSI than non-ESBL-Ec BSI. Clinical resources are warranted to account for the higher morbidity risk associated with ESBL production and incidence.

Causes of death among international travellers in Peru, 2017 to 2021.

BACKGROUND: The wellbeing and safety of international tourists is a paramount concern for governments and stakeholders. Mortality among travellers and the causes of death serve as a significant metric of destination safety. We describe the epidemiology and causes of death among international travellers in Peru. METHODS: Data retrieved from the Peruvian government's deaths certificates registry included all non-residents who died between January 2017 and December 2021. We analysed the national incidence and causes of death among international travellers in Peru. Causes of death were classified into non-communicable diseases (NCD), communicable diseases and injuries. We classified fatalities according to the existence of preventive measures that could be provided during the travel medicine consultation to decrease the risk. RESULTS: We obtained records from 1514 deaths among international travellers (973 males, 64%). The incidence increased from 0.2 deaths per 10 000 travellers in 2017 to 9.9 in 2021. NCDs were the most common causes of death (n = 560, 37%), followed by communicable diseases (n = 487, 32%), and injuries (n = 321, 21%). Causes of death were unknown in 9.7% of the records. The leading causes of death in these categories were cancer, cardiovascular disease, COVID-19 and trauma. We found similar sex distribution of NCDs in travellers aged >50 years and higher rates of communicable diseases among males across all ages. Injury-associated deaths were significantly higher among males aged 18-29 years (P < 0.001) compared with other sex-age groups. We estimated that for 57.7% of deaths risk could have been decreased through pre-travel advice. CONCLUSION: Rates of deaths among travellers to Peru increased over time. Most deaths were due to NCDs, followed by communicable diseases and injuries. Pre-travel medical optimization and effective advice focused on age-sex and destination specific risks could reduce risk among travellers. Increased awareness among travel medicine practitioners and improvement of emergency medical response systems in Peru could decrease mortality.

Imported malaria into Australia: surveillance insights and opportunities.

BACKGROUND: Malaria continues to pose a significant burden in endemic countries, many of which lack access to molecular surveillance. Insights from malaria cases in travellers returning to non-endemic areas can provide valuable data to inform endemic country programmes. To evaluate the potential for novel global insights into malaria, we examined epidemiological and molecular data from imported malaria cases to Australia. METHODS: We analysed malaria cases reported in Australia from 2012 to 2022 using National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System data. Molecular data on imported malaria cases were obtained from literature searches. RESULTS: Between 2012 and 2022, 3204 malaria cases were reported in Australia. Most cases (69%) were male and 44% occurred in young adults aged 20-39 years. Incidence rates initially declined between 2012 and 2015, then increased until 2019. During 2012-2019, the incidence in travellers ranged from 1.34 to 7.71 per 100 000 trips. Cases were primarily acquired in Sub-Saharan Africa (n = 1433; 45%), Oceania (n = 569; 18%) and Southern and Central Asia (n = 367; 12%). The most common countries of acquisition were Papua New Guinea (n = 474) and India (n = 277). Plasmodium falciparum accounted for 58% (1871/3204) of cases and was predominantly acquired in Sub-Saharan Africa, and Plasmodium vivax accounted for 32% (1016/3204), predominantly from Oceania and Asia. Molecular studies of imported malaria cases to Australia identified genetic mutations and deletions associated with drug resistance and false-negative rapid diagnostic test results, and led to the establishment of reference genomes for P. vivax and Plasmodium malariae. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis highlights the continuing burden of imported malaria into Australia. Molecular studies have offered valuable insights into drug resistance and diagnostic limitations, and established reference genomes. Integrating molecular data into national surveillance systems could provide important infectious disease intelligence to optimize treatment guidelines for returning travellers and support endemic country surveillance programmes.

Use of conditional estimates of effect in cancer epidemiology: An application to lung cancer treatment.

BACKGROUND: In oncology clinical trials, there is the assumption that randomization sufficiently balances confounding covariates and therefore average treatment effects are usually reported. This paper explores the wider benefits provided by conditioning on covariates for reasons other than mitigation of confounding. METHODS: We reanalyzed the data from primary randomized controlled trials listed in two meta-analyses to explore the significance of conditioning on smoking status in terms of the effect magnitude of treatment on progression free survival in non-small cell lung cancer. RESULTS: The reanalysis revealed that conditioning on smoking status using sub-group analyses provided the closest empiric estimate of individual treatment effect based on smoking status and significantly reduced the heterogeneity of treatment effect observed across studies. In addition, smoking status was determined to be a modifier of the effect of treatment. CONCLUSION: Conditioning on prognostic covariates in randomized trials in oncology helps generate the closest empiric estimates of individual treatment benefit, addresses heterogeneity due to varying covariate distributions across trials and facilitates future decision making as well as evidence synthesis. Conditioning using sub-group analyses also allows examination for effect modification in meta-analysis.