RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Acute graft-versus-host disease (aGvHD) is a major cause of death for patients following allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). Effective management of moderate to severe aGvHD remains challenging despite recent advances in HSCT, emphasizing the importance of prophylaxis and risk factor identification. METHODS: In this study, we analyzed data from 1479 adults who underwent HSCT between 2005 and 2017 to investigate the effects of aGvHD prophylaxis and time-dependent risk factors on the development of grades II-IV aGvHD within 100 days post-HSCT. RESULTS: Using a dynamic longitudinal time-to-event model, we observed a non-monotonic baseline hazard overtime with a low hazard during the first few days and a maximum hazard at day 17, described by Bateman function with a mean transit time of approximately 11 days. Multivariable analysis revealed significant time-dependent effects of white blood cell counts and cyclosporine A exposure as well as static effects of female donors for male recipients, patients with matched related donors, conditioning regimen consisting of fludarabine plus total body irradiation, and patient age in recipients of grafts from related donors on the risk to develop grades II-IV aGvHD. Additionally, we found that higher cumulative hazard on day 7 after allo-HSCT are associated with an increased incidence of grades II-IV aGvHD within 100 days indicating that an individual assessment of the cumulative hazard on day 7 could potentially serve as valuable predictor for later grades II-IV aGvHD development. Using the final model, stochastic simulations were performed to explore covariate effects on the cumulative incidence over time and to estimate risk ratios. CONCLUSION: Overall, the presented model showed good descriptive and predictive performance and provides valuable insights into the interplay of multiple static and time-dependent risk factors for the prediction of aGvHD.
RESUMEN
The aim of this study was to investigate the pharmacokinetics of multiple-dose intravenous (i.v.) fosfomycin in critically ill patients during continuous venovenous hemodialysis (CVVHD). Non-compartmental analysis and population pharmacokinetic modeling were used to simulate different dosing regimens. We evaluated 15 critically ill patients with renal insufficiency and CVVHD undergoing anti-infective treatment with fosfomycin in our ICU. Five grams of fosfomycin were administered for 120 min every 6 h. Plasma concentrations were determined with and without CVVHD. Pharmacokinetic analysis and simulations were performed using non-linear mixed effects modelling (NONMEM). A two-compartment model with renal and dialysis clearance was most accurate in describing the pharmacokinetics of i.v. fosfomycin during CVVHD. Population parameter estimates were 18.20 L and 20.80 L for the central and peripheral compartment volumes, and 0.26 L/h and 5.08 L/h for renal and intercompartmental clearance, respectively. Urinary creatinine clearance (CLCR) represented a considerable component of renal clearance. Central compartment volume increased over time after the first dose. For patients with CLCR > 50 (90) mL/min and CVVHD, dosage should be increased to ≥ 15 (16) grams of i.v. fosfomycin across three (four) daily doses. Individual CLCR must be considered when dosing i.v. fosfomycin in critically ill patients during CVVHD.
