A dynamic model of the marriage market-Part 2: simulation of marital states and application to empirical data.

A dynamic, two-sex, age-structured marriage model is presented. Part 1 focused on first marriage only and described a marriage market matching algorithm. In Part 2 the model is extended to include divorce, widowing, and remarriage. The model produces a self-consistent set of marital states distributed by age and sex in a stable population by means of a gender-symmetric numerical method. The model is compared with empirical data for the case of Zambia. Furthermore, a dynamic marriage function for a changing population is demonstrated in simulations of three hypothetical scenarios of elevated mortality in young to middle adulthood. The marriage model has its primary application to simulation of HIV-AIDS epidemics in African countries.

A dynamic model of the marriage market-part 1: matching algorithm based on age preference and availability.

The matching algorithm in a dynamic marriage market model is described in this first of two companion papers. Iterative Proportional Fitting is used to find a marriage function (an age distribution of new marriages for both sexes), in a stable reference population, that is consistent with the one-sex age distributions of new marriages, and includes age preference. The one-sex age distributions (which are the marginals of the two-sex distribution) are based on the Picrate model, and age preference on a normal distribution, both of which may be adjusted by choice of parameter values. For a population that is perturbed from the reference state, the total number of new marriages is found as the harmonic mean of target totals for men and women obtained by applying reference population marriage rates to the perturbed population. The marriage function uses the age preference function, assumed to be the same for the reference and the perturbed populations, to distribute the total number of new marriages. The marriage function also has an availability factor that varies as the population changes with time, where availability depends on the supply of unmarried men and women. To simplify exposition, only first marriage is treated, and the algorithm is illustrated by application to Zambia. In the second paper, remarriage and dissolution are included.

Effects of the civil war in central Mozambique and evaluation of the intervention of the International Committee of the Red Cross.

In October 1994, a retrospective study of mortality of children was conducted in Maringué, a district of central Mozambique. Estimates based on maternity histories of 1503 women aged 15-60 years revealed complex changes in the under-5 death rate. During the colonial period (1955-1974), mortality declined from 373 to 270 per 1000. During the civil war period (1975-1991), mortality increased rapidly to reach a peak of 473 per 1000 in 1986. It declined again thereafter and reached a plateau of 380 in 1991. A health intervention conducted by the International Red Cross Committee since 1992 further reduced mortality to 269 per 1000 in 1994. Most of the 1992-1994 decline was attributable to vaccinations, in particular measles and tetanus immunizations, and to Vitamin A supplementation.

Mortality impact of AIDS in Abidjan, 1986-1992.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify the mortality impact of AIDS in the city of Abidjan (Côte d'Ivoire) by a full scale analysis of mortality trends before and after the onset of the epidemic. DESIGN: Data on deaths registered in the 10 vital registration centers of the city between 1973 and 1992, and data on causes of deaths in the four public hospitals were coded and investigated. Data on deaths were compared with census data in order to compute death rates. METHODS: Life tables were computed for each of the 20 years of the study. The trends in death rates were analysed during the 10 years before the onset of the AIDS epidemic (1973-1982) and compared with the changing death rates in the following 10 years (1983-1992). Deaths attributable to AIDS were defined as those in excess of the original trends. The evolution in the number of deaths in the hospital allowed an analysis by cause of death. RESULTS: There was a marked increase in death rates starting in 1986, date of the first diagnosed AIDS cases in the city. This increase was significant for both sexes, but more pronounced among men. It was concentrated primarily among young adults (aged 25-44 years) and among older children (aged 5-14 years), and most of it was considered to be attributable to AIDS and related infections, tuberculosis in particular. When data were cumulated from 1986 to 1992, approximately 25,000 persons were estimated to have died of AIDS. CONCLUSIONS: The high number of AIDS deaths estimated in Abidjan underlines the heavy toll already paid by African populations, and calls for intensive action.