SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in Belarus revealed by genomic and incidence data analysis.

Since the emergence of COVID-19, a series of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) has been implemented by governments and public health authorities world-wide to control and curb the ongoing pandemic spread. From that perspective, Belarus is one of a few countries with a relatively modern healthcare system, where much narrower NPIs have been put in place. Given the uniqueness of this Belarusian experience, the understanding its COVID-19 epidemiological dynamics is essential not only for the local assessment, but also for a better insight into the impact of different NPI strategies globally. In this work, we integrate genomic epidemiology and surveillance methods to investigate the emergence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the country. The observed Belarusian SARS-CoV-2 genetic diversity originated from at least eighteen separate introductions, at least five of which resulted in on-going domestic transmissions. The introduction sources represent a wide variety of regions, although the proportion of regional virus introductions and exports from/to geographical neighbors appears to be higher than for other European countries. Phylodynamic analysis indicates a moderate reduction in the effective reproductive number ℛ e after the introduction of limited NPIs, with the reduction magnitude generally being lower than for countries with large-scale NPIs. On the other hand, the estimate of the Belarusian ℛ e at the early epidemic stage is comparable with this number for the neighboring ex-USSR country of Ukraine, where much broader NPIs have been implemented. The actual number of cases by the end of May, 2020 was predicted to be 2-9 times higher than the detected number of cases.

SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in Belarus in 2020 revealed by genomic and incidence data analysis.

Background: Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been implemented worldwide to curb COVID-19 spread. Belarus is a rare case of a country with a relatively modern healthcare system, where highly limited NPIs have been enacted. Thus, investigation of Belarusian COVID-19 dynamics is essential for the local and global assessment of the impact of NPI strategies. Methods: We integrate genomic epidemiology and surveillance methods to investigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Belarus in 2020. We utilize phylodynamics, phylogeography, and probabilistic bias inference to study the virus import and export routes, the dynamics of the effective reproduction number, and the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Results: Here we show that the estimated cumulative number of infections by June 2020 exceeds the confirmed case number by a factor of ~4 (95% confidence interval (2; 9)). Intra-country SARS-CoV-2 genomic diversity originates from at least 18 introductions from different regions, with a high proportion of regional transmissions. Phylodynamic analysis indicates a moderate reduction of the effective reproductive number after the introduction of limited NPIs, but its magnitude is lower than for developed countries with large-scale NPIs. On the other hand, the effective reproduction number estimate is comparable with that for the neighboring Ukraine, where NPIs were broader. Conclusions: The example of Belarus demonstrates how countries with relatively low outward population mobility continue to be integral parts of the global epidemiological environment. Comparison of the effective reproduction number dynamics for Belarus and other countries reveals the effect of different NPI strategies but also emphasizes the role of regional Eastern European sociodemographic factors in the virus spread.

Distinct HIV type 1 strains in different risk groups and the absence of new infections by drug-resistant strains in Lithuania.

To analyze HIV-1 genotypes in Lithuania and the transmission of drug-resistant viruses, HIV-1 sequences were obtained from 138 individuals, who were diagnosed as HIV-1 infected in 1990-2008 and represented all major risk groups. Subtype A strains, dominating in the former Soviet Union (90% of cases), were found in 60% of individuals, followed by subtype B (22%) and CRF03_AB (12%) strains. The remaining 7% of the strains included variants belonging to subtype C, CRF01_AE, CRF02_AG, more complex recombinant forms, and strains that could not be reliably genotyped. Analysis of virus genotypes per risk group revealed the circulation of distinct HIV-1 strains in different risk groups: subtype A viruses were present in 82% of injecting drug users (IDUs), but less than a half of heterosexually infected individuals and cases with unknown transmission route, and none of men having sex with men (MSM). We observed no mutations causing drug resistance among 27 newly diagnosed HIV-1 cases.

A new unique recombinant HIV type 1 isolated from a child born to an HIV-infected mother.

The new HIV-1 recombinant, with a B(gag) A(pol)A(env) structure, is described. This recombinant virus differs from the classical "Kaliningrad" (AF193276.1) virus with an A(gag) B(pol)B(env) structure. The number of new HIV cases in Belarus has been increasing in the past few years. Within the 12 months of 2010, 1069 new cases of HIV infection were registered. Molecular epidemiological investigations have shown that though HIV-1 subtype A (84.5%) still dominates in HIV/AIDS patients, the quantity of CRFs has also increased to 7.1%. Although cases with the CRF03_AB virus were previously described in patients from Belarus, CRF06_cpx and CRF02_AG are described in Belarus for the first time.

The HIV type 1 epidemic in Belarus: predominance of Eastern European subtype A strains and circulation of subtype B viruses.

To study the molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 in Belarus, where the rapid spread of HIV-1 has been registered since 1996, we obtained HIV-1 sequences from 30 individuals living in five cities in both the main geographic areas of the epidemic (Gomel and Minsk regions) and territories where spreading of the epidemic remains limited (Grodno region). Analysis of env V3 and gag p17/p24 sequences demonstrated that infections in all 12 injecting drug users and 14 of 18 individuals infected through sexual contacts were caused by subtype A viruses that are specific for the epidemic in the former Soviet Union (IDU-A viruses), while the remaining four infections were caused by phylogenetically unrelated to each other subtype B viruses. Extrapolation of these results to the total population of HIV-1-infected individuals in Belarus allowed us to estimate that IDU-A viruses account for nearly 95% of HIV-1 infections in Belarus.