Prognostic significance of PVCs and resting heart rate.

BACKGROUND: We sought to evaluate the prognostic significance of premature ventricular contractions (PVCs) on a routine electrocardiogram (ECG) and to evaluate the relationship between heart rate and PVCs. METHODS: Computerized 12-lead ECGs of 45,402 veterans were analyzed. Vital status was available through the California Health Department Service. RESULTS: There were 1731 patients with PVCs (3.8%). Compared to patients without PVCs, those with PVCs had significantly higher all-cause (39% vs 22%, P < 0.001) and cardiovascular mortality (20% vs 8%, P < 0.001). PVCs remain a significant predictor even after adjustment for age and other ECG abnormalities. The presence of multiple PVCs or complex morphologies did not add significant additional prognostic information. Those patients with PVCs had a significantly higher heart rate than those without PVCs (mean +/- SD: 78.6 +/- 15 vs 73.5 +/- 16 bpm, P < 0.001). When patients were divided into groups by heart rate (<60, 60-79, 80-99 and >100 bpm) and by the presence or absence of PVCs, mortality increased progressively with heart rate and doubled with the presence of PVCs. Using regression analysis, heart rate was demonstrated to be an independent and significant predictor of PVCs. CONCLUSIONS: PVCs on a resting ECG are a significant and independent predictor of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Increased heart rate predicts mortality in patients with and without PVCs and the combination dramatically increases mortality. These findings together with the demonstrated independent association of heart rate with PVCs suggest that a hyperadrenergic state is present in patients with PVCs and that it likely contributes to their adverse prognosis.

Prognostic value of exercise tests in male veterans with chronic coronary artery disease.

PURPOSE: The authors evaluate the prognostic value of treadmill testing in a large consecutive series of patients with chronic coronary artery disease. Exercise testing is widely performed, but analyses of the prognostic value of test results have largely concentrated on patients referred for the diagnosis of coronary artery disease, patients after an acute coronary event or procedure, or patients with congestive heart failure. METHODS: All patients referred for evaluation at two university-affiliated Veterans Affairs Medical Centers who underwent exercise treadmill tests for clinical indications between 1987 and 2000 were determined to be dead or alive using the Social Security Death Index after a mean 5.8-year follow-up. Patients without established heart disease and those with congestive heart failure were excluded, leaving the target population of those with a history myocardial infarction or coronary intervention. Clinical and exercise test variables were collected prospectively according to standard definitions; testing and data management were performed in a standardized fashion using a computer-assisted protocol. All-cause mortality was used as the endpoint for follow-up. Standard survival analysis was performed including Kaplan Meier curves and the Cox Hazard Model. RESULTS: Of the 1,473 patients with coronary artery disease who had exercise testing, 273 (19%) patients had a revascularization procedure (Revascularization group); 813 (55%) had a history of myocardial infarction, diagnostic Q waves (MI group), or both; and 387 (26%) had a history of myocardial infarction or Q wave and revascularization (Combined group). Mean age of the patients was 61.8 +/- 9 years. A total of 401 deaths occurred during a mean follow-up of 5.8 years with an annual mortality rate of 4.5%. Only two variables, age and maximal exercise capacity, were independently and statistically associated with time to death in all three groups and were the strongest predictors of all cause mortality. CONCLUSION: A simple score based on METs, age, and history of myocardial infarction or diagnostic Q waves can stratify prognosis in patients with chronic coronary artery disease. The score enabled the identification of a group at low risk (32% of the cohort) with an annual mortality rate of 2%, a group at intermediate risk (42% of the cohort) with an annual mortality rate of about 4%, and a group at high risk (26% of the cohort) with an average annual mortality rate of approximately 7%.

The prognostic value of body mass index and standard exercise testing in male veterans with congestive heart failure.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the prognostic characteristics of body mass index (BMI) and standard exercise test variables in a consecutive series of patients with mild to moderate congestive heart failure (CHF) referred for standard exercise tests. BACKGROUND: Controversy exists regarding the prognostic importance of BMI, etiology, and exercise test variables in patients with CHF. METHODS: All patients referred for evaluation at two university-affiliated Veterans Affairs Medical Centers who underwent treadmill tests for clinical indications between 1987 and 2000 were determined to be dead or alive using the Social Security Death Index after a mean 6 years follow-up. Clinical and exercise test variables were collected prospectively according to standard definitions; testing and data management were performed in a standardized fashion using a computer-assisted protocol. Survival analysis was performed using all-cause mortality as the endpoint for follow-up. RESULTS: A total of 522 patients with a history and clinical findings of CHF underwent exercise testing. Forty-two percent died during the follow-up period, for an average annual mortality of 6.7%. Cox proportional hazards model chose peak metabolic equivalents (METs), BMI, age, and ischemic etiology in rank order as independently and significantly associated with time to death. A score based on these variables classified patients into low (2% annual mortality), medium (5.2%), and high-risk groups (7% annual mortality). CONCLUSION: Standard exercise testing and BMI can be used to estimate prognosis in outpatients with heart failure. A score incorporating METs, BMI, age, and etiology efficiently stratified these patients. BMI was chosen by the survival analysis, confirming its surprising inverse relationship to prognosis in CHF patients (i.e., heavier patients do better).