Long-term sustainability of the water-agriculture-energy nexus in Brazil's MATOPIBA region: A case study using system dynamics.

The global demand for agricultural commodities has driven extensive land conversion to agriculture in Brazil, especially in the MATOPIBA region. This area encompasses the Rio Grande Basin, a major tributary of the São Francisco Basin that is known for expanding intensive irrigated agriculture and hydropower generation. However, recent data reveal declining precipitation and aquifer recharge, potentially exacerbating ongoing water and land conflicts. This study investigates the long-term sustainability of agricultural expansion amid the worsening water scarcity using a system dynamics model. Findings suggest that rising costs and decreasing profits due to irrigation water shortages may hinder the expansion of irrigated land. By 2040, the irrigation demand may remain partly unmet, while downstream flow and baseflow could decrease. Additionally, agricultural expansion will significantly raise energy demand, posing a developmental challenge. We suggest that ensuring the sustainability of the Rio Grande Basin depends on improved water management and exploring alternative energy sources to address existing constraints.

Hybrid power generation for increasing water and energy securities during drought: Exploring local and regional effects in a semi-arid basin.

Reservoirs of hydropower plants (HPP) can amend water, energy, and food security in semi-arid regions. However, during severe droughts, the priority of energy demand leads to critical conditions of water availability. To reduce water use for energy, one possible measure is the adoption of solar power, an abundant energy source in semi-arid regions. This study assessed the influence of adding floating photovoltaic power (PV) in the large-scale reservoir of Sobradinho HPP, located in the São Francisco River (SFR), in Brazil, from 2009 to 2018. The simulated scenarios varied the installed PV power capacity from 50 to 1000 MW. For each scenario, water allocation was modified based on the solar-hydro equivalence that restrained the historical outflow of Sobradinho to maintain water in the reservoir. Besides, a diverse operation rule for the reservoirs in cascade of SFR was adopted to avoid ecological impacts of low streamflow. The scenarios were assessed in water security, solar-hydro electricity output, capacity factor of the powerplant, water and energy losses by evaporation and spilled water. Results show that a PV system starting from 250 MW was necessary to improve water security during the severe drought, reserving 0.7-2.3 of the annual water demand. In addition, the capacity factor was optimized from 29% to 34-47%. However, as the HPPs installed at SFR work as one system, the constrain of the river flow reduced the hydroelectricity by 4.4% for 750 MW. We concluded that PV significantly influenced water security and ecological conditions of SFR, with benefits in the range of 250-750 MW. The research provides assessment on substituting hydro for solar power on the operation of reservoirs in cascade and identifies the correlated benefits in social and ecological aspects. This information can support decisions of water and energy supply system operators and public policies focused on integrated resources management in semi-arid regions.

Data generated by evaluating the seasonal variability and trend analysis of the solar energy resource in the Northeastern Brazilian region.

The solar radiation is the primary energy resource for several human activities. Nowadays, the environmental issues and climate concerning are boosting the substitution of fossil fuel resources by renewable energy resources, including the adoption of solar energy for power generation. Although the solar power stands for 0.2% of the Brazilian electricity mix, the solar energy resource in the Northeastern Brazilian region (NEB) is higher than in countries where the solar energy market is already consolidated. Nowadays, it is crucial to deepen the comprehension of solar resource time and spatial variability in NEB to support and promote the solar energy market and save water to other purposes than power generation. The paper presents the data generated by Lima et al. (2019). The database, based on meteorological observations at 129 automated weather stations, provides reliable information on the spatial and seasonal variability of the incoming solar irradiation in NEB.