Stratifying Lung Adenocarcinoma Risk with Multi-ancestry Polygenic Risk Scores in East Asian Never-Smokers.

Background: Lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) among never-smokers is a public health burden especially prevalent in East Asian (EAS) women. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs), which quanefy geneec suscepebility, are promising for straefying risk, yet have mainly been developed in European (EUR) populaeons. We developed and validated single-and mule-ancestry PRSs for LUAD in EAS never-smokers, using the largest available genome-wide associaeon study (GWAS) dataset. Methods: We used GWAS summary staesecs from both EAS (8,002 cases; 20,782 controls) and EUR (2,058 cases; 5,575 controls) populaeons, as well as independent EAS individual level data. We evaluated several PRSs approaches: a single-ancestry PRS using 25 variants that reached genome-wide significance (PRS-25), a genome-wide Bayesian based approach (LDpred2), and a mule-ancestry approach that models geneec correlaeons across ancestries (CT-SLEB). PRS performance was evaluated based on the associaeon with LUAD and AUC values. We then esemated the lifeeme absolute risk of LUAD (age 30-80) and projected the AUC at different sample sizes using EAS-derived effect-size distribueon and heritability esemates. Findings: The CT-SLEB PRS showed a strong associaeon with LUAD risk (odds raeo=1.71, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.61, 1.82) with an AUC of 0.640 (95% CI: 0.629, 0.653). Individuals in the 95 th percenele of the PRS had an esemated 6.69% lifeeme absolute risk of LUAD. Comparison of LUAD risk between individuals in the highest and lowest 20% PRS quaneles revealed a 3.92-fold increase. Projeceon analyses indicated that achieving an AUC of 0.70, which approaches the maximized prediceon poteneal of the PRS given the esemated geneec variance, would require a future study encompassing 55,000 EAS LUAD cases with a 1:10 case-control raeo. Interpretations: Our study underscores the poteneal of mule-ancestry PRS approaches to enhance LUAD risk straeficaeon in never-smokers, parecularly in EAS populaeons, and highlights the necessary scale of future research to uncover the geneec underpinnings of LUAD.

Strength of selection in lung tumors correlates with clinical features better than tumor mutation burden.

Single nucleotide substitutions are the most common type of somatic mutations in cancer genome. The goal of this study was to use publicly available somatic mutation data to quantify negative and positive selection in individual lung tumors and test how strength of directional and absolute selection is associated with clinical features. The analysis found a significant variation in strength of selection (both negative and positive) among tumors, with median selection tending to be negative even though tumors with strong positive selection also exist. Strength of selection estimated as the density of missense mutations relative to the density of silent mutations showed only a weak correlation with tumor mutation burden. In the "all histology together" analysis we found that absolute strength of selection was strongly correlated with all clinically relevant features analyzed. In histology-stratified analysis selection was strongest in small cell lung cancer. Selection in adenocarcinoma was somewhat higher compared to squamous cell carcinoma. The study suggests that somatic mutation- based quantifying of directional and absolute selection in individual tumors can be a useful biomarker of tumor aggressiveness.

Identification of genetically predicted DNA methylation markers associated with non-small cell lung cancer risk among 34,964 cases and 448,579 controls.

BACKGROUND: Although the associations between genetic variations and lung cancer risk have been explored, the epigenetic consequences of DNA methylation in lung cancer development are largely unknown. Here, the genetically predicted DNA methylation markers associated with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) risk by a two-stage case-control design were investigated. METHODS: The genetic prediction models for methylation levels based on genetic and methylation data of 1595 subjects from the Framingham Heart Study were established. The prediction models were applied to a fixed-effect meta-analysis of screening data sets with 27,120 NSCLC cases and 27,355 controls to identify the methylation markers, which were then replicated in independent data sets with 7844 lung cancer cases and 421,224 controls. Also performed was a multi-omics functional annotation for the identified CpGs by integrating genomics, epigenomics, and transcriptomics and investigation of the potential regulation pathways. RESULTS: Of the 29,894 CpG sites passing the quality control, 39 CpGs associated with NSCLC risk (Bonferroni-corrected p ≤ 1.67 × 10-6 ) were originally identified. Of these, 16 CpGs remained significant in the validation stage (Bonferroni-corrected p ≤ 1.28 × 10-3 ), including four novel CpGs. Multi-omics functional annotation showed nine of 16 CpGs were potentially functional biomarkers for NSCLC risk. Thirty-five genes within a 1-Mb window of 12 CpGs that might be involved in regulatory pathways of NSCLC risk were identified. CONCLUSIONS: Sixteen promising DNA methylation markers associated with NSCLC were identified. Changes of the methylation level at these CpGs might influence the development of NSCLC by regulating the expression of genes nearby. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: The epigenetic consequences of DNA methylation in lung cancer development are still largely unknown. This study used summary data of large-scale genome-wide association studies to investigate the associations between genetically predicted levels of methylation biomarkers and non-small cell lung cancer risk at the first time. This study looked at how well larotrectinib worked in adult patients with sarcomas caused by TRK fusion proteins. These findings will provide a unique insight into the epigenetic susceptibility mechanisms of lung cancer.

Methylation of nonessential genes in cutaneous melanoma - Rule Out hypothesis.

Differential methylation plays an important role in melanoma development and is associated with survival, progression and response to treatment. However, the mechanisms by which methylation promotes melanoma development are poorly understood. The traditional explanation of selective advantage provided by differential methylation postulates that hypermethylation of regulatory 5'-cytosine-phosphate-guanine-3' dinucleotides (CpGs) downregulates the expression of tumor suppressor genes and therefore promotes tumorigenesis. We believe that other (not necessarily alternative) explanations of the selective advantages of methylation are also possible. Here, we hypothesize that melanoma cells use methylation to shut down transcription of nonessential genes - those not required for cell survival and proliferation. Suppression of nonessential genes allows tumor cells to be more efficient in terms of energy and resource usage, providing them with a selective advantage over the tumor cells that transcribe and subsequently translate genes they do not need. We named the hypothesis the Rule Out (RO) hypothesis. The RO hypothesis predicts higher methylation of CpGs located in regulatory regions (CpG islands) of nonessential genes. It also predicts the higher methylation of regulatory CpGs linked to nonessential genes in melanomas compared to nevi and lower expression of nonessential genes in malignant (derived from melanoma) versus normal (derived from nonaffected skin) melanocytes. The analyses conducted using in-house and publicly available data found that all predictions derived from the RO hypothesis hold, providing observational support for the hypothesis.

Identification of lung cancer drivers by comparison of the observed and the expected numbers of missense and nonsense mutations in individual human genes.

Largely, cancer development is driven by acquisition and positive selection of somatic mutations that increase proliferation and survival of tumor cells. As a result, genes related to cancer development tend to have an excess of somatic mutations in them. An excess of missense and/or nonsense mutations in a gene is an indicator of its cancer relevance. To identify genes with an excess of potentially functional missense or nonsense mutations one needs to compare the observed and expected numbers of mutations in the gene. We estimated the expected numbers of missense and nonsense mutations in individual human genes using (i) the number of potential sites for missense and nonsense mutations in individual transcripts and (ii) histology-specific nucleotide context-dependent mutation rates. To estimate mutation rates defined as the number of mutations per site per tumor we used silent mutations reported in the Catalog Of Somatic Mutations In Cancer (COSMIC). The estimates were nucleotide context dependent. We have identified 26 genes with an excess of missense and/or nonsense mutations for lung adenocarcinoma, 18 genes for small cell lung cancer, and 26 genes for squamous cell carcinoma of the lung. These genes include known genes and novel lung cancer gene candidates.

SNP characteristics and validation success in genome wide association studies.

Genome wide association studies (GWASs) have identified tens of thousands of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with human diseases and characteristics. A significant fraction of GWAS findings can be false positives. The gold standard for true positives is an independent validation. The goal of this study was to identify SNP features associated with validation success. Summary statistics from the Catalog of Published GWASs were used in the analysis. Since our goal was an analysis of reproducibility, we focused on the diseases/phenotypes targeted by at least 10 GWASs. GWASs were arranged in discovery-validation pairs based on the time of publication, with the discovery GWAS published before validation. We used four definitions of the validation success that differ by stringency. Associations of SNP features with validation success were consistent across the definitions. The strongest predictor of SNP validation was the level of statistical significance in the discovery GWAS. The magnitude of the effect size was associated with validation success in a non-linear manner. SNPs with risk allele frequencies in the range 30-70% showed a higher validation success rate compared to rarer or more common SNPs. Missense, 5'UTR, stop gained, and SNPs located in transcription factor binding sites had a higher validation success rate compared to intergenic, intronic and synonymous SNPs. There was a positive association between validation success and the level of evolutionary conservation of the sites. In addition, validation success was higher when discovery and validation GWASs targeted the same ethnicity. All predictors of validation success remained significant in a multivariate logistic regression model indicating their independent contribution. To conclude, we identified SNP features predicting validation success of GWAS hits. These features can be used to select SNPs for validation and downstream functional studies.

Genetics of Smoking Behaviors in American Indians.

BACKGROUND: The smoking behavior of American Indians (AI) differs from that of non-Hispanic whites (NHW). Typically light smokers, cessation interventions in AIs are generally less effective. To develop more effective cessation programs for AIs, clinicians, researchers, and public health workers need a better understanding of the genetic factors involved in their smoking behavior. Our aim was to assess whether SNPs associated with smoking behavior in NHWs are also associated with smoking in AIs. METHODS: We collected questionnaire data on smoking behaviors and analyzed blood and saliva samples from two Tribal populations with dramatically different cultures and smoking prevalence, one in the Northern Plains (n = 323) and the other in the Southwest (n = 176). A total of 384 SNPs were genotyped using an Illumina custom GoldenGate platform. Samples were also assessed for cotinine and 3-hydroxycotinine as markers of nicotine intake and nicotine metabolite ratio. RESULTS: Among 499 participants, we identified, in the Northern Plains sample only, a variant of the gamma-aminobutyric acid receptor subunit alpha-2 (GABRA2) (rs2119767) on chromosome 4p that was associated with many of the intake biomarkers of smoking we examined, suggesting a role for this gene in modifying smoking behavior in this population. We also identified three SNPs, in the Southwest sample only, as significant correlates of only cigarettes per day: rs4274224, rs4245147 (both dopamine receptor D2 gene), and rs1386493 (tryptophan hydroxylase 2 gene). CONCLUSIONS: The contribution of many genes known to underlie smoking behaviors in NHWs may differ in AIs. IMPACT: Once validated, these variants could be useful in developing more effective cessation strategies.

Tumor somatic mutations also existing as germline polymorphisms may help to identify functional SNPs from genome-wide association studies.

We hypothesized that a joint analysis of cancer risk-associated single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) and somatic mutations in tumor samples can predict functional and potentially causal SNPs from GWASs. We used mutations reported in the Catalog of Somatic Mutations in Cancer (COSMIC). Confirmed somatic mutations were subdivided into two groups: (1) mutations reported as SNPs, which we call mutational/SNPs and (2) somatic mutations that are not reported as SNPs, which we call mutational/noSNPs. It is generally accepted that the number of times a somatic mutation is reported in COSMIC correlates with its selective advantage to tumors, with more frequently reported mutations being more functional and providing a stronger selective advantage to the tumor cell. We found that mutations reported ≥10 times in COSMIC-frequent mutational/SNPs (fmSNPs) are likely to be functional. We identified 12 cancer risk-associated SNPs reported in the Catalog of published GWASs at least 10 times as confirmed somatic mutations and therefore deemed to be functional. Additionally, we have identified 42 SNPs that are tightly linked (R2 ≥ 0.8) to SNPs reported in the Catalog of published GWASs as cancer risk associated and that are also reported as fmSNPs. As a result, 54 candidate functional/potentially causal cancer risk associated SNPs were identified. We found that fmSNPs are more likely to be located in evolutionarily conserved regions compared with cancer risk associated SNPs that are not fmSNPs. We also found that fmSNPs also underwent positive selection, which can explain why they exist as population polymorphisms.

Human genes differ by their UV sensitivity estimated through analysis of UV-induced silent mutations in melanoma.

We hypothesized that human genes differ by their sensitivity to ultraviolet (UV) exposure. We used somatic mutations detected by genome-wide screens in melanoma and reported in the Catalog Of Somatic Mutations In Cancer. As a measure of UV sensitivity, we used the number of silent mutations generated by C>T transitions in pyrimidine dimers of a given transcript divided by the number of potential sites for this type of mutations in the transcript. We found that human genes varied by UV sensitivity by two orders of magnitude. We noted that the melanoma-associated tumor suppressor gene CDKN2A was among the top five most UV-sensitive genes in the human genome. Melanoma driver genes have a higher UV-sensitivity compared with other genes in the human genome. The difference was more prominent for tumor suppressors compared with oncogene. The results of this study suggest that differential sensitivity of human transcripts to UV light may explain melanoma specificity of some driver genes. Practical significance of the study relates to the fact that differences in UV sensitivity among human genes need to be taken into consideration whereas predicting melanoma-associated genes by the number of somatic mutations detected in a given gene.

Association Analysis of Driver Gene-Related Genetic Variants Identified Novel Lung Cancer Susceptibility Loci with 20,871 Lung Cancer Cases and 15,971 Controls.

BACKGROUND: A substantial proportion of cancer driver genes (CDG) are also cancer predisposition genes. However, the associations between genetic variants in lung CDGs and the susceptibility to lung cancer have rarely been investigated. METHODS: We selected expression-related single-nucleotide polymorphisms (eSNP) and nonsynonymous variants of lung CDGs, and tested their associations with lung cancer risk in two large-scale genome-wide association studies (20,871 cases and 15,971 controls of European descent). Conditional and joint association analysis was performed to identify independent risk variants. The associations of independent risk variants with somatic alterations in lung CDGs or recurrently altered pathways were investigated using data from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) project. RESULTS: We identified seven independent SNPs in five lung CDGs that were consistently associated with lung cancer risk in discovery (P < 0.001) and validation (P < 0.05) stages. Among these loci, rs78062588 in TPM3 (1q21.3) was a new lung cancer susceptibility locus (OR = 0.86, P = 1.65 × 10-6). Subgroup analysis by histologic types further identified nine lung CDGs. Analysis of somatic alterations found that in lung adenocarcinomas, rs78062588[C] allele (TPM3 in 1q21.3) was associated with elevated somatic copy number of TPM3 (OR = 1.16, P = 0.02). In lung adenocarcinomas, rs1611182 (HLA-A in 6p22.1) was associated with truncation mutations of the transcriptional misregulation in cancer pathway (OR = 0.66, P = 1.76 × 10-3). CONCLUSIONS: Genetic variants can regulate functions of lung CDGs and influence lung cancer susceptibility. IMPACT: Our findings might help unravel biological mechanisms underlying lung cancer susceptibility.

Untouchable genes in the human genome: Identifying ideal targets for cancer treatment.

BACKGROUND: Usually, genes with a higher-than-expected number of somatic mutations in tumor samples are assumed to be cancer related. We identified genes with a fewer-than-expected number of somatic mutations - "untouchable genes". METHODS: To predict the expected number of somatic mutations, we used a linear regression model with the number of mutations in the gene as an outcome, and gene characteristics, including gene size, nucleotide composition, level of evolutionary conservation, expression level and others, as predictors. Analysis of residuals from the regression model was used to compare the observed and predicted number of mutations. RESULTS: We have identified 19 genes with a less-than-expected number of loss-off-function (nonsense, frameshift or pathogenic missense) mutations - i.e., untouchable genes. The number of silent or neutral missense mutations in untouchable genes was equal or higher than the expected number. Many mucins, including MUC16, MUC17, MUC6, MUC5AC, MUC5B, and MUC12, are untouchable. We hypothesized that untouchable mucins help tumor cells to avoid immune response by providing a protective coat that prevents direct contact between effector immune cells, e.g., cytotoxic T-cells, and tumor cells. Survival analysis of available TCGA data demonstrated that overall survival of patients with low (below the median) expression of untouchable mucins was better compared to patients with high expression of untouchable mucins. Aside from mucins, we have identified a number of other untouchable genes. CONCLUSIONS: Untouchable genes may be ideal targets for cancer treatment since suppression of untouchable genes is expected to inhibit survival of tumor cells.

Gene characteristics predicting missense, nonsense and frameshift mutations in tumor samples.

BACKGROUND: Because driver mutations provide selective advantage to the mutant clone, they tend to occur at a higher frequency in tumor samples compared to selectively neutral (passenger) mutations. However, mutation frequency alone is insufficient to identify cancer genes because mutability is influenced by many gene characteristics, such as size, nucleotide composition, etc. The goal of this study was to identify gene characteristics associated with the frequency of somatic mutations in the gene in tumor samples. RESULTS: We used data on somatic mutations detected by genome wide screens from the Catalog of Somatic Mutations in Cancer (COSMIC). Gene size, nucleotide composition, expression level of the gene, relative replication time in the cell cycle, level of evolutionary conservation and other gene characteristics (totaling 11) were used as predictors of the number of somatic mutations. We applied stepwise multiple linear regression to predict the number of mutations per gene. Because missense, nonsense, and frameshift mutations are associated with different sets of gene characteristics, they were modeled separately. Gene characteristics explain 88% of the variation in the number of missense, 40% of nonsense, and 23% of frameshift mutations. Comparisons of the observed and expected numbers of mutations identified genes with a higher than expected number of mutations- positive outliers. Many of these are known driver genes. A number of novel candidate driver genes was also identified. CONCLUSIONS: By comparing the observed and predicted number of mutations in a gene, we have identified known cancer-associated genes as well as 111 novel cancer associated genes. We also showed that adding the number of silent mutations per gene reported by genome/exome wide screens across all cancer type (COSMIC data) as a predictor substantially exceeds predicting accuracy of the most popular cancer gene predicting tool - MutsigCV.

Gene-level association analysis of systemic sclerosis: A comparison of African-Americans and White populations.

Gene-level analysis of ImmunoChip or genome-wide association studies (GWAS) data has not been previously reported for systemic sclerosis (SSc, scleroderma). The objective of this study was to analyze genetic susceptibility loci in SSc at the gene level and to determine if the detected associations were shared in African-American and White populations, using data from ImmunoChip and GWAS genotyping studies. The White sample included 1833 cases and 3466 controls (956 cases and 2741 controls from the US and 877 cases and 725 controls from Spain) and the African American sample, 291 cases and 260 controls. In both Whites and African Americans, we performed a gene-level analysis that integrates association statistics in a gene possibly harboring multiple SNPs with weak effect on disease risk, using Versatile Gene-based Association Study (VEGAS) software. The SNP-level analysis was performed using PLINK v.1.07. We identified 4 novel candidate genes (STAT1, FCGR2C, NIPSNAP3B, and SCT) significantly associated and 4 genes (SERBP1, PINX1, TMEM175 and EXOC2) suggestively associated with SSc in the gene level analysis in White patients. As an exploratory analysis we compared the results on Whites with those from African Americans. Of previously established susceptibility genes identified in Whites, only TNFAIP3 was significant at the nominal level (p = 6.13x10-3) in African Americans in the gene-level analysis of the ImmunoChip data. Among the top suggestive novel genes identified in Whites based on the ImmunoChip data, FCGR2C and PINX1 were only nominally significant in African Americans (p = 0.016 and p = 0.028, respectively), while among the top novel genes identified in the gene-level analysis in African Americans, UNC5C (p = 5.57x10-4) and CLEC16A (p = 0.0463) were also nominally significant in Whites. We also present the gene-level analysis of SSc clinical and autoantibody phenotypes among Whites. Our findings need to be validated by independent studies, particularly due to the limited sample size of African Americans.

Association of Smoking with Metabolic Volatile Organic Compounds in Exhaled Breath.

Lung cancer (LC) screening will be more efficient if it is applied to a well-defined high-risk population. Characteristics including metabolic byproducts may be taken into account to access LC risk more precisely. Breath examination provides a non-invasive method to monitor metabolic byproducts. However, the association between volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in exhaled breath and LC risk or LC risk factors is not studied. Exhaled breath samples from 122 healthy persons, who were given routine annual exam from December 2015 to December 2016, were analyzed using thermal desorption coupled with gas chromatography mass spectrometry (TD-GC-MS). Smoking characteristics, air quality, and other risk factors for lung cancer were collected. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to evaluate the relationship between VOCs and LC risk factors. 7, 7, 11, and 27 VOCs were correlated with smoking status, smoking intensity, years of smoking, and depth of inhalation, respectively. Exhaled VOCs are related to smoking and might have a potential to evaluate LC risk more precisely. Both an assessment of temporal stability and testing in a prospective study are needed to establish the performance of VOCs such as 2,5-dimethylfuranm and 4-methyloctane as lung cancer risk biomarkers.

Downstream targets of GWAS-detected genes for breast, lung, and prostate and colon cancer converge to G1/S transition pathway.

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) identified over 500 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) influencing cancer risk. It is logical to expect the cancer-associated genes to cluster in pathways directly involved in carcinogenesis, e.g. cell cycle. Nevertheless, analyses of the GWAS-detected cancer risk genes usually show no or weak enrichment by known cancer genes.We hypothesized that GWAS-detected cancer risk-associated genes function as upstream regulators of the genes directly involved in carcinogenesis. We have analyzed four common cancers: breast, colon, lung, and prostate. To identify downstream targets of GWAS-detected cancer risk genes we used MedScan, which is a text mining tool offered by PathwayStudio. We also used data on protein/protein interactions reported by BioGRID database. Among all identified targets we have selected common downstream targets. A gene was considered a common downstream target if it was a downstream target for at least three GWAS-detected genes for a given cancer type. Common downstream targets were identified separately for each cancer type. We found that common downstream targets for all four cancer types were enriched by cell cycle genes, more specifically, the genes involved in G1/S transition. Common downstream targets for bipolar disorder, Crohn's disease, and type 2 diabetes did not show G1/S transition enrichment.The results of this analysis suggest that many cancer risk genes function as upstream regulators of the genes directly involved in G1/S transition and exert their risk effects by reducing threshold for G1/S transition, elevating the background level of cell proliferation and cancer risk.

Genetic susceptibility loci of idiopathic interstitial pneumonia do not represent risk for systemic sclerosis: a case control study in Caucasian patients.

BACKGROUND: Systemic sclerosis (SSc)-related interstitial lung disease (ILD) has phenotypic similarities to lung involvement in idiopathic interstitial pneumonia (IIP). We aimed to assess whether genetic susceptibility loci recently identified in the large IIP genome-wide association studies (GWASs) were also risk loci for SSc overall or severity of ILD in SSc. METHODS: A total of 2571 SSc patients and 4500 healthy controls were investigated from the US discovery GWAS and additional US replication cohorts. Thirteen IIP-related selected single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were genotyped and analyzed for their association with SSc. RESULTS: We found an association of SSc with the SNP rs6793295 in the LRRC34 gene (OR = 1.14, CI 95 % 1.03 to 1.25, p value = 0.009) and rs11191865 in the OBFC1 gene (OR = 1.09, CI 95 % 1.00 to 1.19, p value = 0.043) in the discovery cohort. Additionally, rs7934606 in MUC2 (OR = 1.24, CI 95 % 1.01 to 1.52, p value = 0.037) was associated with SSc-ILD defined by imaging. However, these associations failed to replicate in the validation cohort. Furthermore, SNPs rs2076295 in DSP (ß = -2.29, CI 95 % -3.85 to -0.74, p value = 0.004) rs17690703 in SPPL2C (ß = 2.04, CI 95 % 0.21 to 3.88, p value = 0.029) and rs1981997 in MAPT (ß = 2.26, CI 95 % 0.35 to 4.17, p value = 0.02) were associated with percent predicted forced vital capacity (FVC%) even after adjusting for the anti-topoisomerase (ATA)-positive subset. However, these associations also did not replicate in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Our results add new evidence that SSc and SSc-related ILD are genetically distinct from IIP, although they share phenotypic similarities.

Prediction of the gene expression in normal lung tissue by the gene expression in blood.

BACKGROUND: Comparative analysis of gene expression in human tissues is important for understanding the molecular mechanisms underlying tissue-specific control of gene expression. It can also open an avenue for using gene expression in blood (which is the most easily accessible human tissue) to predict gene expression in other (less accessible) tissues, which would facilitate the development of novel gene expression based models for assessing disease risk and progression. Until recently, direct comparative analysis across different tissues was not possible due to the scarcity of paired tissue samples from the same individuals. METHODS: In this study we used paired whole blood/lung gene expression data from the Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) project. We built a generalized linear regression model for each gene using gene expression in lung as the outcome and gene expression in blood, age and gender as predictors. RESULTS: For ~18 % of the genes, gene expression in blood was a significant predictor of gene expression in lung. We found that the number of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) influencing expression of a given gene in either blood or lung, also known as the number of quantitative trait loci (eQTLs), was positively associated with efficacy of blood-based prediction of that gene's expression in lung. This association was strongest for shared eQTLs: those influencing gene expression in both blood and lung. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, for a considerable number of human genes, their expression levels in lung can be predicted using observable gene expression in blood. An abundance of shared eQTLs may explain the strong blood/lung correlations in the gene expression.

Allelic Spectra of Risk SNPs Are Different for Environment/Lifestyle Dependent versus Independent Diseases.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have generated sufficient data to assess the role of selection in shaping allelic diversity of disease-associated SNPs. Negative selection against disease risk variants is expected to reduce their frequencies making them overrepresented in the group of minor (<50%) alleles. Indeed, we found that the overall proportion of risk alleles was higher among alleles with frequency <50% (minor alleles) compared to that in the group of major alleles. We hypothesized that negative selection may have different effects on environment (or lifestyle)-dependent versus environment (or lifestyle)-independent diseases. We used an environment/lifestyle index (ELI) to assess influence of environmental/lifestyle factors on disease etiology. ELI was defined as the number of publications mentioning "environment" or "lifestyle" AND disease per 1,000 disease-mentioning publications. We found that the frequency distributions of the risk alleles for the diseases with strong environmental/lifestyle components follow the distribution expected under a selectively neutral model, while frequency distributions of the risk alleles for the diseases with weak environmental/lifestyle influences is shifted to the lower values indicating effects of negative selection. We hypothesized that previously selectively neutral variants become risk alleles when environment changes. The hypothesis of ancestrally neutral, currently disadvantageous risk-associated alleles predicts that the distribution of risk alleles for the environment/lifestyle dependent diseases will follow a neutral model since natural selection has not had enough time to influence allele frequencies. The results of our analysis suggest that prediction of SNP functionality based on the level of evolutionary conservation may not be useful for SNPs associated with environment/lifestyle dependent diseases.

SNP characteristics predict replication success in association studies.

Successful independent replication is the most direct approach for distinguishing real genotype-disease associations from false discoveries in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Selecting SNPs for replication has been primarily based on P values from the discovery stage, although additional characteristics of SNPs may be used to improve replication success. We used disease-associated SNPs from more than 2,000 published GWASs to identify predictors of SNP reproducibility. SNP reproducibility was defined as a proportion of successful replications among all replication attempts. The study reporting association for the first time was considered to be discovery and all consequent studies targeting the same phenotype replications. We found that -Log(P), where P is a P value from the discovery study, is the strongest predictor of the SNP reproducibility. Other significant predictors include type of the SNP (e.g., missense vs intronic SNPs) and minor allele frequency. Features of the genes linked to the disease-associated SNP also predict SNP reproducibility. Based on empirically defined rules, we developed a reproducibility score (RS) to predict SNP reproducibility independently of -Log(P). We used data from two lung cancer GWAS studies as well as recently reported disease-associated SNPs to validate RS. Minus Log(P) outperforms RS when the very top SNPs are selected, while RS works better with relaxed selection criteria. In conclusion, we propose an empirical model to predict SNP reproducibility, which can be used to select SNPs for validation and prioritization.

Modeling the natural history and detection of lung cancer based on smoking behavior.

In this study, we developed a method for modeling the progression and detection of lung cancer based on the smoking behavior at an individual level. The model allows obtaining the characteristics of lung cancer in a population at the time of diagnosis. Lung cancer data from Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database collected between 2004 and 2008 were used to fit the lung cancer progression and detection model. The fitted model combined with a smoking based carcinogenesis model was used to predict the distribution of age, gender, tumor size, disease stage and smoking status at diagnosis and the results were validated against independent data from the SEER database collected from 1988 to 1999. The model accurately predicted the gender distribution and median age of LC patients of diagnosis, and reasonably predicted the joint tumor size and disease stage distribution.