RESUMEN
Models widely used to assess atmospheric chemical-dispersion hazards for emergency response rely on acute exposure guideline level (AEGL) or similar concentration guidelines to map geographic areas potentially affected by corresponding levels of toxic severity. By ignoring substantial, random variability in concentration over time and space, such standard methods routinely underestimate the size of potentially affected areas. Underestimation due to temporal fluctuation - applicable to chemicals like hydrogen cyanide (HCN) for which peak concentrations best predict acute toxicity - becomes magnified by spatial fluctuation, defined as heterogeneity in average concentration at each location relative to standard-method predictions. The combined impact of spatiotemporal fluctuation on size of assessed threat areas was studied using a statistical-simulation assessment method calibrated to Joint Urban 2003 Oklahoma City field-tracer data. For a hypothetical 60-min urban release scenario involving HCN gas, the stochastic method predicted that lethal/severe effects could occur in an area 18 or 25 times larger than was predicted by standard methods targeted to a 60-min AEGL, assuming wind speeds > or =2.0 or < or =1.5m/s, respectively. The underestimation doubled when the standard method was targeted to a 10-min AEGL. Further research and field data are needed for improved stochastic methods to assess spatiotemporal fluctuation effects.
