Reliability of single-lead electrocardiogram interpretation to detect atrial fibrillation: insights from the SAFER feasibility study.

AIMS: Single-lead electrocardiograms (ECGs) can be recorded using widely available devices such as smartwatches and handheld ECG recorders. Such devices have been approved for atrial fibrillation (AF) detection. However, little evidence exists on the reliability of single-lead ECG interpretation. We aimed to assess the level of agreement on detection of AF by independent cardiologists interpreting single-lead ECGs and to identify factors influencing agreement. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a population-based AF screening study, adults aged ≥65 years old recorded four single-lead ECGs per day for 1-4 weeks using a handheld ECG recorder. Electrocardiograms showing signs of possible AF were identified by a nurse, aided by an automated algorithm. These were reviewed by two independent cardiologists who assigned participant- and ECG-level diagnoses. Inter-rater reliability of AF diagnosis was calculated using linear weighted Cohen's kappa (κw). Out of 2141 participants and 162 515 ECGs, only 1843 ECGs from 185 participants were reviewed by both cardiologists. Agreement was moderate: κw = 0.48 (95% confidence interval, 0.37-0.58) at participant level and κw = 0.58 (0.53-0.62) at ECG level. At participant level, agreement was associated with the number of adequate-quality ECGs recorded, with higher agreement in participants who recorded at least 67 adequate-quality ECGs. At ECG level, agreement was associated with ECG quality and whether ECGs exhibited algorithm-identified possible AF. CONCLUSION: Inter-rater reliability of AF diagnosis from single-lead ECGs was found to be moderate in older adults. Strategies to improve reliability might include participant and cardiologist training and designing AF detection programmes to obtain sufficient ECGs for reliable diagnoses.

Diet and physical activity interventions to improve cardiovascular disease risk factors in liver transplant recipients: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Cardiovascular disease, associated risk factors and obesity are prevalent after liver transplant and modifiable through lifestyle changes. Understanding what lifestyle interventions and their respective components are effective is essential for translation to clinical practice. We aimed to investigate the effects of diet and physical activity interventions on weight, body mass index and other cardiovascular disease risk factors in liver transplant recipients, and systematically describe the interventions. METHODS: We systematically searched Embase, MEDLINE, Psycho Info, CINAHL, Cochrane central register of controlled trials, PeDro, AMED, BNI, Web of Science, OpenGrey, ClinicalTrials.gov and the international clinical trials registry from inception to 31 May 2023. Search results were screened by two independent reviewers: randomised control trials with interventions that targeted diet and physical activity behaviours in liver transplant recipients were considered eligible. Two independent reviewers extracted and synthesised data for study, participant and intervention details and results. We used the Revised Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool for Randomised Trials to assess risk of bias for outcomes and the GRADE approach to rate the quality of the body of evidence. When two or more studies reported findings for an outcome, we pooled data using random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Six studies were included, reporting three physical activity and three combined diet and physical activity interventions. Participants were 2 months-4 years post-transplant. Interventions lasted 12 weeks-10 months and were delivered remotely and/or in-person, most commonly delivered to individual participants by health care or sports professionals. Five studies described individual tailoring, e.g. exercise intensity. Adherence to interventions ranged from 51% to 94%. No studies reported fidelity. Intervention components were not consistently reported. In meta-analysis, diet and physical activity interventions did not significantly reduce weight or body mass index compared to control groups, however no studies targeted participants with obesity. Diet and physical activity interventions reduced percentage body fat and triglycerides compared to control groups but did not reduce total cholesterol or increase activity. The GRADE quality of evidence was low or very low. CONCLUSION: Diet and physical activity interventions reduced percentage body fat and triglycerides in liver transplant recipients. Further good quality research is needed to evaluate their effect on other cardiovascular disease risk factors, including weight and BMI. Interventions need to be better described and evaluated to improve evidence base and inform patient care.

Randomised controlled trial of population screening for atrial fibrillation in people aged 70 years and over to reduce stroke: protocol for the SAFER trial.

INTRODUCTION: There is a lack of evidence that the benefits of screening for atrial fibrillation (AF) outweigh the harms. Following the completion of the Screening for Atrial Fibrillation with ECG to Reduce stroke (SAFER) pilot trial, the aim of the main SAFER trial is to establish whether population screening for AF reduces incidence of stroke risk. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Approximately 82 000 people aged 70 years and over and not on oral anticoagulation are being recruited from general practices in England. Patients on the palliative care register or residents in a nursing home are excluded. Eligible people are identified using electronic patient records from general practices and sent an invitation and consent form to participate by post. Consenting participants are randomised at a ratio of 2:1 (control:intervention) with clustering by household. Those randomised to the intervention arm are sent an information leaflet inviting them to participate in screening, which involves use of a handheld single-lead ECG four times a day for 3 weeks. ECG traces identified by an algorithm as possible AF are reviewed by cardiologists. Participants with AF are seen by a general practitioner for consideration of anticoagulation. The primary outcome is stroke. Major secondary outcomes are: death, major bleeding and cardiovascular events. Follow-up will be via electronic health records for an average of 4 years. The primary analysis will be by intention-to-treat using time-to-event modelling. Results from this trial will be combined with follow-up data from the cluster-randomised pilot trial by fixed-effects meta-analysis. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The London-Central National Health Service Research Ethics Committee (19/LO/1597) provided ethical approval. Dissemination will include public-friendly summaries, reports and engagement with the UK National Screening Committee. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN72104369.

The association between patterns of weight change, diabetes status and glycaemia among adults with overweight and obesity.

AIMS: To investigate the associations between weight change patterns and 5-year incident non-diabetic hyperglycaemia (NDH), and glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) levels among individuals who had overweight or obesity. METHODS: This longitudinal cohort study (N = 435) pooled data from a weight management trial. Participants were adults with a body mass index of ≥28 kg/m2. They were categorised as "no weight loss", "maintainers", and "regainers" based on their weight at 3 months and 12 months after baseline. Multivariable logistic regression models and linear regressions were conducted to examine the associations. RESULTS: Between 1-year and 5-year follow-ups, 77 participants developed NDH. We found no statistically significant association between weight change patterns and incident NDH at 5 years. Among weight loss maintainers, mean HbA1c was -0.15% (95% confidence intervals (CI): -0.22, -0.10) lower after 1 year and -0.15% (95% CI: -0.23, -0.06) lower after 5 years compared to the no weight loss group. There was no difference between weight loss regainers and no weight loss group in HbA1c levels. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to those who did not lose weight, participants who maintained their weight loss had lower HbA1c levels after 1 year and 5 years, which highlights the importance of providing long-term support to prevent weight regain.

The effectiveness of pharmacological and lifestyle interventions to reduce the risk of diabetes and hyperglycaemia following gestational diabetes: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

AIMS: To synthesize the available evidence to better understand the effectiveness of interventions to prevent or delay hyperglycaemia and Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) postnatally in women with current or previous gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). METHODS: We searched five databases up to December 2020 for primary peer-reviewed articles reporting postpartum glycaemic outcomes in women with (previous) GDM following pharmacological or lifestyle intervention. Outcomes were relative risk of T2DM or continuous measures of glycaemia, change or at follow-up. A minimum of two studies evaluating the same intervention-outcome combination were needed to conduct meta-analyses, otherwise studies were described narratively. Meta-regression was used to evaluate whether associations varied by additional variables. We assessed risk of bias using the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme checklist. PROSPERO record CRD42018102380. RESULTS: We included 31 studies in the review with a total sample size of 8624 participants, and 26 studies in meta-analyses. Two-thirds of studies followed up participants at 1 year or less. Pharmacological interventions were associated with reduced risk of T2DM (0.80 [95% CI 0.64-1.00], n = 6 studies), as were lifestyle interventions albeit with a smaller effect size (0.88 [95% CI 0.76-1.01], n = 12 studies). Dietary and physical activity interventions were associated with a small reduction in fasting plasma glucose, particularly in longer interventions, but inconsistent effects were seen for other continuous outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Although possibly due to chance, interventions to reduce hyperglycaemia after GDM may be effective. Future research should improve understanding of how interventions affect glucose control and how to optimise interventions for this population.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of two interventions to promote physical activity in a multiethnic population at high risk of diabetes: an economic evaluation of the 48-month PROPELS randomized controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: Physical activity (PA) is protective against type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, data on pragmatic long-term interventions to reduce the risk of developing T2D via increased PA are lacking. This study investigated the cost-effectiveness of a pragmatic PA intervention in a multiethnic population at high risk of T2D. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We adapted the School for Public Health Research diabetes prevention model, using the PROPELS trial data and analyses of the NAVIGATOR trial. Lifetime costs, lifetime quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated for each intervention (Walking Away (WA) and Walking Away Plus (WA+)) versus usual care and compared with National Institute for Health and Care Excellence's willingness-to-pay of £20 000-£30 000 per QALY gained. We conducted scenario analyses on the outcomes of the PROPELS trial data and a threshold analysis to determine the change in step count that would be needed for the interventions to be cost-effective. RESULTS: Estimated lifetime costs for usual care, WA, and WA+ were £22 598, £23 018, and £22 945, respectively. Estimated QALYs were 9.323, 9.312, and 9.330, respectively. WA+ was estimated to be more effective and cheaper than WA. WA+ had an ICER of £49 273 per QALY gained versus usual care. In none of our scenario analyses did either WA or WA+ have an ICER below £20 000 per QALY gained. Our threshold analysis suggested that a PA intervention costing the same as WA+ would have an ICER below £20 000/QALY if it were to achieve an increase in step count of 500 steps per day which was 100% maintained at 4 years. CONCLUSIONS: We found that neither WA nor WA+ was cost-effective at a limit of £20 000 per QALY gained. Our threshold analysis showed that interventions to increase step count can be cost-effective at this limit if they achieve greater long-term maintenance of effect. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN registration: ISRCTN83465245: The PRomotion Of Physical activity through structuredEducation with differing Levels of ongoing Support for those with pre-diabetes (PROPELS)https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN83465245.

The feasibility of population screening for paroxysmal atrial fibrillation using hand-held electrocardiogram devices.

AIMS: There are few data on the feasibility of population screening for paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (AF) using hand-held electrocardiogram (ECG) devices outside a specialist setting or in people over the age of 75. We investigated the feasibility of screening when conducted without face-to-face contact ('remote') or via in-person appointments in primary care and explored impact of age on screening outcomes. METHODS AND RESULTS: People aged ≥65 years from 13 general practices in England participated in screening during 2019-20. This involved attending a practice nurse appointment (10 practices) or receiving an ECG device by post (three practices). Participants were asked to use a hand-held ECG for 1-4 weeks. Screening outcomes included uptake, quality of ECGs, AF detection rates, and uptake of anticoagulation if AF was detected. Screening was carried out by 2141 (87.5%) of people invited to practice nurse-led screening and by 288 (90.0%) invited to remote screening. At least 56 interpretable ECGs were provided by 98.0% of participants who participated for 3 weeks, with no significant differences by setting or age, except people aged 85 or over (91.1%). Overall, 2.6% (64/2429) screened participants had AF, with detection rising with age (9.2% in people aged 85 or over). A total of 53/64 (82.8%) people with AF commenced anticoagulation. Uptake of anticoagulation did not vary by age. CONCLUSION: Population screening for paroxysmal AF is feasible in general practice and without face-to-face contact for all ages over 64 years, including people aged 85 and over.

Prospective associations between changes in physical activity and sedentary time and subsequent lean muscle mass in older English adults: the EPIC-Norfolk cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The longitudinal associations between physical behaviours and lean muscle mass indices need to be better understood to aid healthy ageing intervention development. METHODS: We assessed physical behaviours (total physical activity, moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA), light physical activity, total sedentary time and prolonged sedentary bout time) for 7 days using hip-worn accelerometers. We also assessed domain-specific physical behaviours (walking, cycling, gardening and housework time) with self-report questionnaires at baseline (2006-2011) and follow-up (2012-2016) in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk study. We assessed body composition using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) at follow-up in 1535 participants (≥ 60 years at baseline). From this, we derived appendicular lean muscle mass (ALM) indices (% relative ALM = (ALM/total body weight)*100), body mass index (BMI)-scaled ALM (ALM/BMI, kg/kg/m2) and height-scaled ALM (ALM/height2, kg/m2)). We evaluated the prospective associations of both baseline and change in physical behaviours with follow-up muscle mass indices using multivariable linear regression. RESULTS: Over 5.5 years (SD 14.8) follow-up, higher baseline accelerometer-measured physical activity and lower sedentary time were associated with higher subsequent relative ALM and BMI-scaled ALM, but not height-scaled ALM (e.g. 0.02% higher subsequent relative ALM per minute/day of baseline MVPA for men). Greater increases in physical activity and greater declines in sedentary time variables were associated with higher subsequent relative ALM and BMI-scaled ALM, but not height-scaled ALM (e.g. 0.001 kg/kg/m2 subsequent BMI-scaled ALM and 0.04% subsequent relative ALM per min/day/year increases in LPA over follow-up; 0.001 kg/kg/m2 subsequent BMI-scaled ALM and -0.03% subsequent relative ALM per min/day/year less of total sedentary time over follow-up). Greater increases in women's cycling and gardening over follow-up were associated with greater subsequent relative ALM (cycling 0.9% per hour/week/year; gardening 0.2% per hour/week/year) and BMI-scaled ALM (cycling 0.03 kg/kg/m2 per hour/week/year; gardening 0.004 kg/kg/m2 per hour/week/year). CONCLUSION: Physical behaviours across all intensities, and in women more specifically cycling and gardening, may help prevent age-related declines in muscle mass.

Replacing device-measured sedentary time with physical activity is associated with lower risk of coronary heart disease regardless of genetic risk.

BACKGROUND: Excess sedentary time (ST) is recognized as an important modifiable risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD). However, whether the associations of genetic susceptibility with CHD incidence can be modified by replacing wearable-device-measured ST with physical activity (PA) is unknown. OBJECTIVES: To examine the associations of wearable-device-measured ST replaced by PA with incident CHD across strata of genetic susceptibility. METHODS: This study included 77,500 White British (57% female) with valid wrist-worn accelerometry and without prevalent CHD/stroke from UK Biobank. Genetic susceptibility to CHD was quantified through weighted polygenic risk scores for CHD based on 300 single-nucleotide polymorphisms. Wrist-worn accelerometer data were used to derive ST, light PA, and moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA). RESULTS: Reallocation of 60 min/day of ST into the same amount of MVPA was associated with approximately 9% lower relative risk of CHD for all participants and across strata of genetic risk: replacement of 1 min/day of ST associated with <1% lower relative risk of CHD. No evidence of interaction (p: 0.784) was found between genetic risk and ST for CHD risk. Reallocating 60 min/day of ST into the same MVPA time was associated with greater absolute CHD risk reductions at high genetic risk (0.27%) versus low genetic risk (0.15%). CONCLUSIONS: Replacing any amount of ST with an equal amount of MVPA time is associated with a lower relative risk of CHD, irrespective of genetic susceptibility to CHD. Reductions in CHD absolute risk for replacing ST with MVPA are greater at high genetic risk versus low genetic risk.

Plasma Metabolites Related to the Consumption of Different Types of Dairy Products and Their Association with New-Onset Type 2 Diabetes: Analyses in the Fenland and EPIC-Norfolk Studies, United Kingdom.

SCOPE: To identify metabolites associated with habitual dairy consumption and investigate their associations with type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk. METHODS AND RESULTS: Metabolomics assays were conducted in the Fenland (n = 10,281) and EPIC-Norfolk (n = 1,440) studies. Using 82 metabolites assessed in both studies, we developed metabolite scores to classify self-reported consumption of milk, yogurt, cheese, butter, and total dairy (Fenland Study-discovery set; n = 6035). Internal and external validity of the scores was evaluated (Fenland-validation set, n = 4246; EPIC-Norfolk, n = 1440). The study assessed associations between each metabolite score and T2D incidence in EPIC-Norfolk (n = 641 cases; 16,350 person-years). The scores classified low and high consumers for all dairy types with internal validity, and milk, butter, and total dairy with external validity. The scores were further associated with lower incident T2D: hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) per standard deviation: milk 0.71 (0.65, 0.77); butter 0.62 (0.57, 0.68); total dairy 0.66 (0.60, 0.72). These associations persisted after adjustment for known dairy-fat biomarkers. CONCLUSION: Metabolite scores identified habitual consumers of milk, butter, and total dairy products, and were associated with lower T2D risk. These findings hold promise for identifying objective indicators of the physiological response to dairy consumption.

Evaluating the potential impact of lifestyle-based behavior change interventions delivered at the time of colorectal cancer screening.

PURPOSE: To analyze interventions implemented at the time of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, or among individuals who have previously undergone investigation for CRC, focused on reducing CRC risk through promotion of lifestyle behavior change. Additionally, this review evaluated to what extent such interventions apply behavior change techniques (BCTs) to achieve their objectives. METHODS: Five databases were systematically searched to identify randomized control trials seeking to reduce CRC risk through behavior change. Outcomes were changes in health-related lifestyle behaviors associated with CRC risk, including changes in dietary habits, body mass index, smoking behaviors, alcohol consumption, and physical activity. Standardized mean differences (SMDs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were pooled using random effects models. BCT's were coded from a published taxonomy of 93 techniques. RESULTS: Ten RCT's met the inclusion criteria. Greater increase in fruit/vegetable consumption in the intervention group were observed with respect to the control (SMD 0.13, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.18; p < 0.001). Across fiber, alcohol, fat, red meat, and multivitamin consumption, and smoking behaviors, similar positive outcomes were observed (SMD 0.09-0.57 for all, p < 0.01). However, among physical activity and body mass index, no difference between the intervention groups compared with controls were observed. A median of 7.5 BCTs were applied across included interventions. CONCLUSION: While magnitude of the observed effect sizes varied, they correspond to potentially important changes in lifestyle behaviors when considered on a population scale. Future interventions should identify avenues to maximize long-term engagement to promote sustained lifestyle behavior change.

Experiences of emotional eating in an Acceptance and Commitment Therapy based weight management intervention (SWiM): A qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Emotional eating is a barrier to weight management. Interventions based on Acceptance and Commitment Therapy (ACT) promote the acceptance of uncomfortable feelings, which can reduce the urge to use food as a coping mechanism. We aimed to explore how participants of an ACT-based weight management intervention (WMI) experience emotional eating and relevant intervention content. METHODS: We conducted semi-structured telephone interviews with participants of a digital ACT-based guided self-help WMI. Fifteen participants were purposefully selected to represent a range of demographic characteristics and emotional eating scores. We used reflexive thematic analysis to explore experiences of emotional eating. RESULTS: We generated five themes. Participants improved emotional eating by disconnecting emotions from behaviours though increased self-awareness (theme 1) and by implementing alternative coping strategies, including preparation, substitution, and acceptance (theme 2). Most participants maintained improvements in emotional eating over time but wished for more opportunities to re-engage with intervention content, including more immediate support in triggering situations (theme 3). Participants who struggled to engage with emotional eating related intervention content often displayed an external locus of control over emotional eating triggers (theme 4). The perceived usefulness of the intervention depended on participants' prior experiences of emotional eating, and was thought insufficient for participants with complex emotional experiences (theme 5). DISCUSSION: This ACT-based WMI helped participants with emotional eating by improving self-awareness and teaching alternative coping strategies. Intervention developers may consider adding ongoing forms of intervention that provide both real-time and long-term support. Additionally, a better understanding of how to support people with an external locus of control and people with complex experiences of emotional eating is needed. Future research may explore ways of personalising WMIs based on participants' emotional needs.

The moderating and mediating role of eating behaviour traits in acceptance and commitment therapy-based weight management interventions: protocol for an individual participant data meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Precision medicine approaches to obesity aim to maximise treatment effectiveness by matching weight management interventions (WMIs) to characteristics of individuals, such as eating behaviour traits (EBTs). Acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT)-based WMIs may address EBTs such as emotional and uncontrolled eating more effectively than standard interventions, and might be most effective in people with high levels of these traits. However, few studies have examined this directly. We will examine (a) whether ACT-based interventions are more effective for people with certain levels of EBTs (ie, moderation) and (b) whether ACT-based interventions operate through changes in EBTs (ie, mediation). METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis will follow the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses of Individual Participant Data guidance. We will include studies on ACT-based WMIs that assessed EBTs in people with a body mass index ≥25 kg/m2. We identified studies by screening studies included in a previous review of third wave cognitive behavioural interventions, and updating the search to 20 June 2022. We will request IPD from eligible published and unpublished studies. We will harmonise and re-analyse data using a two-stage random effects meta-analysis pooling within-trial interactions to investigate moderating effects and using a one-stage simultaneous equation model to examine mediating effects. We will assess the risk of bias in included studies using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool 2 and the Risk of Bias in Non-randomised Studies of Interventions tool. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval has been obtained from the Cambridge Psychology Research Ethics Committee (Application No: PRE.2023.121). Data sharing will follow data transfer agreements and coauthorship will be offered to investigators contributing data. Findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals and conferences and will contribute to the lead author's PhD thesis. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42022359691.

Sociodemographic characteristics and longitudinal progression of multimorbidity: A multistate modelling analysis of a large primary care records dataset in England.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity, characterised by the coexistence of multiple chronic conditions in an individual, is a rising public health concern. While much of the existing research has focused on cross-sectional patterns of multimorbidity, there remains a need to better understand the longitudinal accumulation of diseases. This includes examining the associations between important sociodemographic characteristics and the rate of progression of chronic conditions. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We utilised electronic primary care records from 13.48 million participants in England, drawn from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD Aurum), spanning from 2005 to 2020 with a median follow-up of 4.71 years (IQR: 1.78, 11.28). The study focused on 5 important chronic conditions: cardiovascular disease (CVD), type 2 diabetes (T2D), chronic kidney disease (CKD), heart failure (HF), and mental health (MH) conditions. Key sociodemographic characteristics considered include ethnicity, social and material deprivation, gender, and age. We employed a flexible spline-based parametric multistate model to investigate the associations between these sociodemographic characteristics and the rate of different disease transitions throughout multimorbidity development. Our findings reveal distinct association patterns across different disease transition types. Deprivation, gender, and age generally demonstrated stronger associations with disease diagnosis compared to ethnic group differences. Notably, the impact of these factors tended to attenuate with an increase in the number of preexisting conditions, especially for deprivation, gender, and age. For example, the hazard ratio (HR) (95% CI; p-value) for the association of deprivation with T2D diagnosis (comparing the most deprived quintile to the least deprived) is 1.76 ([1.74, 1.78]; p < 0.001) for those with no preexisting conditions and decreases to 0.95 ([0.75, 1.21]; p = 0.69) with 4 preexisting conditions. Furthermore, the impact of deprivation, gender, and age was typically more pronounced when transitioning from an MH condition. For instance, the HR (95% CI; p-value) for the association of deprivation with T2D diagnosis when transitioning from MH is 2.03 ([1.95, 2.12], p < 0.001), compared to transitions from CVD 1.50 ([1.43, 1.58], p < 0.001), CKD 1.37 ([1.30, 1.44], p < 0.001), and HF 1.55 ([1.34, 1.79], p < 0.001). A primary limitation of our study is that potential diagnostic inaccuracies in primary care records, such as underdiagnosis, overdiagnosis, or ascertainment bias of chronic conditions, could influence our results. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that early phases of multimorbidity development could warrant increased attention. The potential importance of earlier detection and intervention of chronic conditions is underscored, particularly for MH conditions and higher-risk populations. These insights may have important implications for the management of multimorbidity.

Implementation of risk stratification within bowel cancer screening: a community jury study exploring public acceptability and communication needs.

BACKGROUND: Population-based cancer screening programmes are shifting away from age and/or sex-based screening criteria towards a risk-stratified approach. Any such changes must be acceptable to the public and communicated effectively. We aimed to explore the social and ethical considerations of implementing risk stratification at three different stages of the bowel cancer screening programme and to understand public requirements for communication. METHODS: We conducted two pairs of community juries, addressing risk stratification for screening eligibility or thresholds for referral to colonoscopy and screening interval. Using screening test results (where applicable), and lifestyle and genetic risk scores were suggested as potential stratification strategies. After being informed about the topic through a series of presentations and discussions including screening principles, ethical considerations and how risk stratification could be incorporated, participants deliberated over the research questions. They then reported their final verdicts on the acceptability of risk-stratified screening and what information should be shared about their preferred screening strategy. Transcripts were analysed using codebook thematic analysis. RESULTS: Risk stratification of bowel cancer screening was acceptable to the informed public. Using data within the current system (age, sex and screening results) was considered an obvious next step and collecting additional data for lifestyle and/or genetic risk assessment was also preferable to age-based screening. Participants acknowledged benefits to individuals and health services, as well as articulating concerns for people with low cancer risk, potential public misconceptions and additional complexity for the system. The need for clear and effective communication about changes to the screening programme and individual risk feedback was highlighted, including making a distinction between information that should be shared with everyone by default and additional details that are available elsewhere. CONCLUSIONS: From the perspective of public acceptability, risk stratification using current data could be implemented immediately, ahead of more complex strategies. Collecting additional data for lifestyle and/or genetic risk assessment was also considered acceptable but the practicalities of collecting such data and how the programme would be communicated require careful consideration.

Type 2 diabetes remission trajectories and variation in risk of diabetes complications: A population-based cohort study.

Biochemical remission of type 2 diabetes is achievable through dietary changes, physical activity and subsequent weight loss. We aim to identify distinct diabetes remission trajectories in a large population-based cohort over seven-years follow-up and to examine associations between remission trajectories and diabetes complications. Group-based trajectory modelling examined longitudinal patterns of HbA1c level (adjusting for remission status) over time. Multivariable Cox models quantified the association between each remission trajectory and microvascular complications, macrovascular complications, cardiovascular (CVD) events and all-cause mortality. Four groups were assigned. Group 1 (8,112 [13.5%]; achieving HbA1c <48 mmol/mol (6.5%) followed by increasing HbA1c levels); Group 2 (6,369 [10.6%]; decreasing HbA1c levels >48 mmol/mol (6.5%)); Group 3 (36,557 [60.6%]; stable high HbA1c levels); Group 4 (9,249 [15.3%]; stable low HbA1c levels (<48mmol/mol or <6.5%)). Compared to Group 3, Groups 1 and 4 had lower risk of microvascular complications (aHRs (95% CI): 0.65 (0.61-0.70), p-value <0.001;0.59 (0.55-0.64) p-value<0.001, respectively)), macrovascular complications (aHRs (95% CI): 0.83 (0.75-0.92), p-value<0.001; 0.66 (0.61-0.71), p-value<0.001) and CVD events (aHRs (95% CI): 0.74(0.67-0.83), p-value<0.001; 0.67(0.61-0.73), p-vlaue<0.001). Risk of CVD outcomes were similar for Groups 2 and 3. Compared to Group 3, Group 1 (aHR: 0.82(95% CI: 0.76-0.89)) had lower risk of mortality, but Group 4 had higher risk of mortality (aHR: 1.11(95% CI: 1.03-1.19)). Risk of CVD outcomes vary by pattern of remission over time, with lowest risk for those in remission longer. People who achieve remission, even for shorter periods of time, continue to benefit from this lower exposure to hyperglycaemia, which may, in turn, lower the risk of CVD outcomes including mortality.

Recommendations from Diabetes UK's 2022 diabetes and physical activity workshop.

AIMS: To describe the process and outputs of a workshop convened to identify key priorities for future research in the area of diabetes and physical activity and provide recommendations to researchers and research funders on how best to address them. METHODS: A 1-day research workshop was conducted, bringing together researchers, people living with diabetes, healthcare professionals, and members of staff from Diabetes UK to identify and prioritise recommendations for future research into physical activity and diabetes. RESULTS: Workshop attendees prioritised four key themes for further research: (i) better understanding of the physiology of exercise in all groups of people: in particular, what patient metabolic characteristics influence or predict the physiological response to physical activity, and the potential role of physical activity in beta cell preservation; (ii) designing physical activity interventions for maximum impact; (iii) promoting sustained physical activity across the life course; (iv) designing physical activity studies for groups with multiple long-term conditions. CONCLUSIONS: This paper outlines recommendations to address the current gaps in knowledge related to diabetes and physical activity and calls on the research community to develop applications in these areas and funders to consider how to stimulate research in these areas.

Risk Factors of Secondary Cardiovascular Events in a Multi-Ethnic Asian Population with Acute Myocardial Infarction: A Retrospective Cohort Study from Malaysia.

This retrospective cohort study investigated the incidence and risk factors of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) after 1 year of first-documented myocardial infarctions (MIs) in a multi-ethnic Asian population. Secondary MACE were observed in 231 (14.3%) individuals, including 92 (5.7%) cardiovascular-related deaths. Both histories of hypertension and diabetes were associated with secondary MACE after adjustment for age, sex, and ethnicity (HR 1.60 [95%CI 1.22-2.12] and 1.46 [95%CI 1.09-1.97], respectively). With further adjustments for traditional risk factors, individuals with conduction disturbances demonstrated higher risks of MACE: new left-bundle branch block (HR 2.86 [95%CI 1.15-6.55]), right-bundle branch block (HR 2.09 [95%CI 1.02-4.29]), and second-degree heart block (HR 2.45 [95%CI 0.59-10.16]). These associations were broadly similar across different age, sex, and ethnicity groups, although somewhat greater for history of hypertension and BMI among women versus men, for HbA1c control in individuals aged >50 years, and for LVEF ≤ 40% in those with Indian versus Chinese or Bumiputera ethnicities. Several traditional and cardiac risk factors are associated with a higher risk of secondary major adverse cardiovascular events. In addition to hypertension and diabetes, the identification of conduction disturbances in individuals with first-onset MI may be useful for the risk stratification of high-risk individuals.

Nutritional Intake after Liver Transplant: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Cardiovascular disease and its concurrent risk factors are prevalent after liver transplant (LT). Most of these risk factors are modifiable by diet. We aimed to synthesise the literature reporting the nutritional intake of liver transplant recipients (LTR) and the potential determinants of intake. We performed a systematic review and meta-analyses of studies published up until July 2021 reporting the nutritional intake of LTR. The pooled daily mean intakes were recorded as 1998 (95% CI 1889, 2108) kcal, 17 (17, 18)% energy from protein, 49 (48, 51)% energy from carbohydrates, 34 (33, 35)% energy from total fat, 10 (7, 13)% energy from saturated fat, and 20 (18, 21) g of fibre. The average fruit and vegetable intake ranged from 105 to 418 g/day. The length of time post-LT and the age and sex of the cohorts, as well as the continent and year of publication of each study, were sources of heterogeneity. Nine studies investigated the potential determinants of intake, time post-LT, gender and immunosuppression medication, with inconclusive results. Energy and protein requirements were not met in the first month post-transplant. After this point, energy intake was significantly higher and remained stable over time, with a high fat intake and low intake of fibre, fruits and vegetables. This suggests that LTR consume a high-energy, low-quality diet in the long term and do not adhere to the dietary guidelines for cardiovascular disease prevention.