The effect of temperature, farm density and foot-and-mouth disease restrictions on the 2007 UK bluetongue outbreak.

In 2006, bluetongue (BT), a disease of ruminants, was introduced into northern Europe for the first time and more than two thousand farms across five countries were affected. In 2007, BT affected more than 35,000 farms in France and Germany alone. By contrast, the UK outbreak beginning in 2007 was relatively small, with only 135 farms in southeast England affected. We use a model to investigate the effects of three factors on the scale of BT outbreaks in the UK: (1) place of introduction; (2) temperature; and (3) animal movement restrictions. Our results suggest that the UK outbreak could have been much larger had the infection been introduced into the west of England either directly or as a result of the movement of infected animals from southeast England before the first case was detected. The fact that air temperatures in the UK in 2007 were marginally lower than average probably contributed to the UK outbreak being relatively small. Finally, our results indicate that BT movement restrictions are effective at controlling the spread of infection. However, foot-and-mouth disease restrictions in place before the detection and control of BT in 2007 almost certainly helped to limit BT spread prior to its detection.

The future of hypnosis through the remainder of the decade: a Delphi poll.

We predicted the future of hypnosis for the next 10 years using the Delphi method--the best available forecasting tool. A panel of 89 experts in the field of hypnosis completed a 44-item questionnaire that addressed future developments in these areas: (1) training and preparation, (2) general applications of hypnosis, (3) theory, and (4) research. Also predicted was the likelihood of occurrence of certain cogent events in the field. Results indicated probable increases in emphasis in nearly all areas surveyed. We also solicited nominations for major contributors to the field of hypnosis, major books on hypnosis, and journals most likely to publish articles on hypnosis.

Childhood farm injuries: a neglected aspect of patient and resident education.

Since family physicians are often the primary health providers for children residing in rural areas, one might expect family practice residencies to include in their curricula some teaching in regard to the prevention of childhood farm injuries. To assess how family practice residencies are currently responding to childhood farm injuries, the authors undertook a survey of the program directors of the nation's 380 residency programs. Of the 332 returned questionnaires, only three (0.9%) reported any formal instruction in the prevention of childhood farm injuries, despite the fact that 102 programs (30.7%) stated that at least 50% of their graduates practiced in rural communities. In addition to the survey, specific proposals are made regarding what residencies can do to initiate teaching in the prevention of farm injuries in children.