Review: Trends for meat, milk and egg consumption for the next decades and the role played by livestock systems in the global production of proteins.

Meeting the food demands of a growing global population within planetary boundaries is a challenge. Sustainably producing animal-sourced foods while supplying sufficient protein to meet the requirements of a healthy diet is a particular challenge. This paper informs the development of pathways to sustainable animal production by examining trends in animal-sourced foods since 2000, including the significance of animal- relative to plant-protein sources. Drawing on three distinct scenarios defined by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), (i.e. Business As Usual (BAU), a continuation of historical trends of food preferences including initiatives to address Sustainable Development Goal targets; Stratified Societies (SSs), leaving challenges unattended; and Towards Sustainability (TS); a more equitable global society and more sustainable food system due to effective polices), future demand for animal-sourced foods is projected. Analysis is based on FAO Food Balance Sheet data (2000-2017) and projected national protein demand per capita (2012-2050). Analysis is disaggregated to five global regions defined by the World Health Organization. It finds that patterns of past demand for animal-sourced foods vary by food (e.g. red vs white meat) and region. However, the European region consistently has the highest levels of consumption of animal-sourced foods, while the South-East Asian and African regions have the lowest. The ratio of animal to plant-sourced protein varies across regions, ranging from 0.29 in Africa to 1.08 in Europe in 2017. Over time, the ratio is relatively stable or moderately increasing, driven by rising incomes in low- or middle-income countries. Under the future scenarios, all World Health Organization regions show a marked increase in demand for animal-sourced protein across BAU and SS. The TS scenario, however, projects notable declines in consumption across Europe and the Americas when compared to the 2012 BAU baseline, with a decline in milk also in the Western Pacific. In contrast, meat and milk consumption in Africa and South-East Asia is projected to increase, reflecting their far lower starting consumption levels. The analysis and subsequent discussion highlight the importance of having regional-specific strategies to deal with the challenge of sustainable livestock production and consumption, with a requirement to consider the impact of actions in one region on others. Clearly, the challenge is not merely one for science and technology but one based on wider aspects of the food system and its diverse stakeholders.

Evaluation of beef eating quality by Irish consumers.

A consumer's decision to purchase beef is strongly linked to its sensory properties and consistent eating quality is one of the most important attributes. Consumer taste panels were held according to the Meat Standards Australia guidelines and consumers scored beef according to its palatability attributes and completed a socio-demographic questionnaire. Consumers were able to distinguish between beef quality on a scale from unsatisfactory to premium with high accuracy. Premium cuts of beef scored significantly higher on all of the scales compared to poorer quality cuts. Men rated grilled beef higher on juiciness and flavour scales compared to women. Being the main purchaser of beef had no impact on rating scores. Overall the results show that consumers can judge eating quality with high accuracy. Further research is needed to determine how best to communicate inherent benefits that are not visible into extrinsic eating quality indicators, to provide the consumer with consistent indications of quality at the point of purchase.

Stakeholder involvement in establishing a milk quality sub-index in dairy cow breeding goals: a Delphi approach.

The relative weighting on traits within breeding goals are generally determined by bio-economic models or profit functions. While such methods have generally delivered profitability gains to producers, and are being expanded to consider non-market values, current approaches generally do not consider the numerous and diverse stakeholders that affect, or are affected, by such tools. Based on principles of respondent anonymity, iteration, controlled feedback and statistical aggregation of feedback, a Delphi study was undertaken to gauge stakeholder opinion of the importance of detailed milk quality traits within an overall dairy breeding goal for profit, with the aim of assessing its suitability as a complementary, participatory approach to defining breeding goals. The questionnaires used over two survey rounds asked stakeholders: (a) their opinion on incorporating an explicit sub-index for milk quality into a national breeding goal; (b) the importance they would assign to a pre-determined list of milk quality traits and (c) the (relative) weighting they would give such a milk quality sub-index. Results from the survey highlighted a good degree of consensus among stakeholders on the issues raised. Similarly, revelation of the underlying assumptions and knowledge used by stakeholders to make their judgements illustrated their ability to consider a range of perspectives when evaluating traits, and to reconsider their answers based on the responses and rationales given by others, which demonstrated social learning. Finally, while the relative importance assigned by stakeholders in the Delphi survey (4% to 10%) and the results of calculations based on selection index theory of the relative emphasis that should be placed on milk quality to halt any deterioration (16%) are broadly in line, the difference indicates the benefit of considering more than one approach to determining breeding goals. This study thus illustrates the role of the Delphi technique, as a complementary approach to traditional approaches, to defining breeding goals. This has implications for how breeding goals will be defined and in determining who should be involved in the decision-making process.