Influence of rugby injuries on players' subsequent health and lifestyle: beginning a long term follow up.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the current rugby playing status of a cohort of 1,169 men who had previously participated in an epidemiological survey of rugby injuries during the 1993-1994 season, and assess the consequences of rugby injuries sustained. METHODS: In May 1998, 911 (78%) men completed a questionnaire reporting their current involvement in rugby and the influence that the 324 (71%) injuries they had sustained four years earlier had since had on their health and wellbeing. RESULTS: The most common reasons given by the 390 (43%) ex-players for ceasing to play rugby were family (10%), employment (25%), and an injury sustained while playing rugby (26%), 80% of which were dislocations, strains, and sprains, mainly to the knee (35%), back (14%), and shoulder (9%). A significantly (chi2 test 21.7, df = 1, p<0.001) higher proportion of current players (90%) undertook (non-rugby) sporting activities compared with ex-players (78%). Few ex-players undertook coaching (12%) and refereeing (2%). Only 22 (9%) men reported significant negative effects to employment, family life, and health up to mid-1998 from injuries that occurred during the 1993-1994 season, although the impact on their lifestyle had been substantial in some cases. CONCLUSIONS: With the recent increase in the incidence of dislocation, strain, and sprain injuries in rugby football, the findings of this follow up could have a great impact on the game in the future. Although this survey has shown that, so far, only a small proportion of players suffer significant effects of rugby injuries, four years is not long enough to assess the long term effects. This cohort of rugby players need to be followed up for at least a further 20 years to determine whether there is a higher incidence of subsequent degenerative joint disease or other long term sequelae to injuries sustained while playing rugby.

Intercomparison of five PM10 monitoring devices and the implications for exposure measurement in epidemiological research.

Five different instruments for the determination of the mass concentration of PM10 in air were compared side-by-side for up to 33 days in an undisturbed indoor environment: a tripod mounted BGI Inc. PQ100 gravimetric sampler with a US EPA certified Graseby Andersen PM10 inlet; an Airmetrics Minivol static gravimetric sampler; a Casella cyclone gravimetric personal sampler; an Institute of Occupational Medicine gravimetric PM10 personal sampler; and two TSI Inc. Dustrak real-time optical scattering personal samplers. For 24 h sampling of ambient PM10 concentrations around 10 microg m(-3), the estimated measurement uncertainty for the two gravimetric personal samplers was larger (approximately +/- 20%) compared with estimated measurement uncertainty for the PQ100/Graseby Andersen sampler (< +/- 5%). Measurement uncertainty for the Dustraks was lower (approximately +/- 15% on average) but calibration of the optical response against a reference PM10 method is essential since the Dustraks systematically over-read PM10 determined gravimetrically by a factor approximately 2.2. However, once calibrated, the Dustrak devices demonstrated excellent functionality in terms of ease of portability and real-time data acquisition. Estimated measurement uncertainty for PM10 concentrations determined with the Minivol were +/- 5%. The Minivol data correlated well with PQ100/Graseby Andersen data (r= 0.97, n = 18) but were, on average, 23% greater. The reason for the systematic discrepancy could not be traced. Intercomparison experiments such as these are essential for assessing measurement error and revealing systematic bias. Application of two Dustraks demonstrated the spatial and temporal variability of exposure to PM10 in different walking and transport microenvironments in the city of Edinburgh, UK. For example, very large exposures to PM10 were identified for the lower deck of a double-decker tour bus compared with the open upper deck of the same vehicle. The variability observed emphasises the need to determine truly personal exposure profiles of PM10 for quantifying exposure response relationships for epidemiological studies.

14 years of follow-up from the Edinburgh randomised trial of breast-cancer screening.

BACKGROUND: The Edinburgh randomised trial of breast-cancer screening recruited women aged 45-64 years from 1978 to 1981 (cohort 1), and those aged 45-49 years during 1982-85 (cohorts 2 and 3). Results based on 14 years of follow-up and 270,000 woman-years of observation are reported. METHODS: Breast-cancer mortality rates in the intervention group (28,628 women offered screening) were compared with those in the control group (26,026) with adjustment for socioeconomic status (SES) of general medical practices. Rate ratios were derived by means of logistic regression for the total trial population and for women first offered screening while younger than 50 years. Analyses were by intention to treat. FINDINGS: Initial unadjusted results showed a difference of just 13% in breast-cancer mortality rates between the intervention and control groups (156 deaths [5.18 per 10,000] vs 167 [6.04 per 10,000]; rate ratio 0.87 [95% CI 0.70-1.06]), but the results were influenced by differences in SES by trial group. After adjustment for SES, the rate ratio was 0.79 (95% CI 0.60-1.02). When deaths after diagnosis more than 3 years after the end of the study were censored the rate ratio became 0.71 (0.53-0.95). There was no evidence of heterogeneity by age at entry and no evidence that younger entrants had smaller or delayed benefit (rate ratio 0.70 [0.41-1.20]). No breast-cancer mortality benefit was observed for women whose breast cancers were diagnosed when they were younger than 50 years. Other-cause mortality rates did not differ by trial group when adjusted for SES. INTERPRETATION: Our findings confirm results from randomised trials in Sweden and the USA that screening for breast cancer lowers breast-cancer mortality. Similar results are reported by the UK geographical comparison, UK Trial of Early Detection of Breast Cancer. The results for younger women suggest benefit from introduction of screening before 50 years of age.

The Edinburgh randomised trial of breast cancer screening: results after 10 years of follow-up.

The Edinburgh Randomised Trial of Breast Cancer Screening recruited 44,288 women aged 45-64 years into the initial cohort of the trial during 1978-81, and 10 years of follow-up is now complete. A total of 22,944 women were randomised into the study group and were offered screening for 7 years; the remaining women formed the control group. After 10 years, breast cancer mortality is 14-21% lower in the study group than in the controls depending on the precise definition of the end point. These differences are not statistically significant; for breast cancer as the underlying cause of death the relative risk is 0.82 (95% confidence interval 0.61-1.11). Rates of locally advanced and metastatic cancer were substantially lower in the study group, but screening has failed to achieve marked reductions in rates of small node-positive cancers. Those women who accepted the final invitation to screening have been monitored over the 3 year period prior to their first screen under the UK service screening programme. Interval cases, expressed as a proportion of the control incidence, increased from 12% in the first year to 67% in the third year. The reduction in breast cancer mortality for older women (aged at least 50 years) is the same as that for the total study group for this duration of follow-up. For analyses of breast cancer mortality in younger women updates recruited to the trial from 1982 to 1985 (10,383 women with 6-8 years' follow-up) have been included. The reduction in breast cancer mortality for women aged 45-49 years at entry was 22% (relative risk = 0.78, 95% confidence interval = 0.46-1.31).

Comparative pathology of breast cancer in a randomised trial of screening.

In the Edinburgh Randomised Breast Screening Project (EBSP) to December 1988 there were 500 cancers in the study population invited to screening and 340 cancers identified in the control population. The size and negative lymph node status characteristics of invasive cancers from the two populations were significantly different (P less than 0.05). The cancers detected by screening were predominantly 'early stage', with 16% noninvasive (PTIS) and 42% invasive stage I (pT1 node negative), whereas cancers were frequently 'late stage' (more than pT2) and inoperable in nonattenders (44%) and controls (36%). Grouped according to customary size ranges of invasive cancers, the proportion of cases lymph node positive differed in those screen detected compared with controls, but the benefit in favour of screen detection was not constant. In comparisons of cancers detected at prevalence and incidence screens, as a test of conformity with screening theory, no significant differences were apparent according to size and lymph node status, yet the characteristics of histological type of cancer discriminated significantly (P less than 0.05). When these same histological characteristics were used to compare survival, the capacity to separate invasive cancers into two groups having good and poor survival probabilities was evident, with a significant improvement for the screen detected poor survival group compared with controls (P less than 0.05).

Edinburgh trial of screening for breast cancer: mortality at seven years.

Between 1979 and 1981, 45,130 women in Edinburgh aged 45-64 were entered into a randomised trial of breast cancer screening by mammography and clinical examination. The initial attendance rate was 61% but this varied according to age and socioeconomic status and decreased over succeeding years. The cancer detection rate was 6.2 per 1000 women attending at the first visit; the rate fell to around 3 per 1000 in the years when mammography was routinely repeated and to around 1 per 1000 at the intervening visits with clinical examination alone as the screening method. After 7 years of follow-up the mortality reduction achieved was 17% (relative risk = 0.83, 95% CI 0.58-1.18), which was not statistically significant, even when corrected for socioeconomic status. In women aged 50 years and over a mortality reduction of 20% was achieved.

Blood-lead levels and children's behaviour--results from the Edinburgh Lead Study.

The effect of blood-lead on children's behaviour was investigated in a sub-sample of 501 boys and girls aged 6-9 years from 18 primary schools within a defined area of central Edinburgh. Behaviour ratings of the children were made by teachers and parents using the Rutter behaviour scales. An extensive home interview with a parent was also carried out. Multiple regression analyses showed a significant relationship between log blood-lead and teachers' ratings on the total Rutter score and the aggressive/anti-social and hyperactive sub-scores, but not the neurotic sub-score when 30 possible confounding variables were taken into account. There was a dose-response relationship between blood-lead and behaviour ratings, with no evidence of a threshold.

Randomisation by cluster and the problem of social class bias.

For randomised population trials the unit of randomisation is normally the individual person. In some situations, however, investigators take other groups as basic unit and one such design is cluster randomisation. Considerable attention has been given to this design recently in statistical and epidemiological literature. The Edinburgh randomised trial of breast cancer screening is an example which takes general practices as clusters of patients. The experience of this trial is reported here. Mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease and lung cancer over the first 5 year period of follow up are examined. We found that spurious mortality differences were present in the analyses, which do not allow for socio-economic status. From examination of methods of adjusting for this, we conclude that allowance can be made at the analysis stage, and it is intended that this approach will be adopted when breast cancer mortality is analysed in the Edinburgh trial. Nevertheless, we recommend that for future studies with outcome related to socio-economic status, randomisations which use this design be stratified by socio-economic criteria where this is feasible.

Association between mortality among women and socioeconomic factors in general practices in Edinburgh: an application of small area statistics.

Women aged 45-64 in 78 general practices in the city of Edinburgh were followed up for five to seven years and all cause mortality noted. Standardised mortality ratios were calculated for the individual practices. Postcodes were available for a 20% sample of these women and were used to retrieve relevant measures of social class and deprivation from the 1981 census for the smallest division, the enumeration district. Weighted averages gave socioeconomic variables at the level of the general practice. High positive correlations were found between standardised mortality ratios and the socioeconomic variables, with the highest being for percentage overcrowding. This study established that the relation between deprivation and excess mortality can be shown in general practices in one large city and gave a direct relation for women without reference to their husbands' occupations, thus obviating problems of assigning social class. The data also partially refute the "social drift" hypothesis as an explanation of the association between mortality and social class.

Influence of blood lead on the ability and attainment of children in Edinburgh.

The effect of blood-lead on children's ability and attainment was investigated in a sample of 855 boys and girls aged 6-9 years from eighteen primary schools within a defined area of central Edinburgh. The geometric mean blood-lead value was 10.4 micrograms/dl. In a stratified subsample, 501 children completed individual tests of cognitive ability and educational attainment from the British Ability Scales (BAS). An extensive home interview with a parent was also done. Multiple regression analyses showed a significant negative relation between log blood-lead and BAS combined score, number skills, and word reading when thirty-three possible confounding variables were taken into account. There was a dose-response relation between blood-lead and test scores, with no evidence of a threshold. The size of the effect was small compared with that of other factors. Lead at low levels of exposure probably has a small harmful effect on the performance of children in ability and attainment tests.

The Edinburgh randomised trial of screening for breast cancer: description of method.

Edinburgh was selected as one of the centres in the UK Seven-year Trial of Breast Screening of women aged 45-65 which began in 1979. Subsequently, our study was extended to a randomised trial with its own control population within the city. Half the practices were randomly allocated for screening, giving a cluster sampling of women. The total number in the trial is 65,000. Women with previously diagnosed breast cancer are excluded. Women allocated for screening are invited to the clinic and screened according to the procedures specified in the U.K. protocol, having clinical examination every year and mammography on alternate years. The two modalities of screening are assessed independently and the role of nurses is being evaluated. Breast cancer incidence is monitored by pathology register and the local cancer registry office and deaths from the General Register office. Long-term follow-up will be obtained through flagging at NHS Central Register. To determine the value of screening, standard statistical methods will be used to compare breast cancer mortality rates in the whole of the screening population with that of the controls. This trial has a power of 83% of detecting a reduction in mortality of 35% after 7 years of follow-up and a power of 95% of detecting a similar reduction at 10 years (alpha = 0.05, one-sided test).