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Background: The popularity of tattoos has increased dramatically over the last few decades. Tattoo ink often contains carcinogenic chemicals, e.g., primary aromatic amines, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and metals. The tattooing process invokes an immunologic response that causes translocation of tattoo ink from the injection site. Deposition of tattoo pigment in lymph nodes has been confirmed but the long-term health effects remain unexplored. We used Swedish National Authority Registers with full population coverage to investigate the association between tattoo exposure and overall malignant lymphoma as well as lymphoma subtypes. Methods: We performed a case-control study where we identified all incident cases of malignant lymphoma diagnosed between 2007 and 2017 in individuals aged 20-60 years in the Swedish National Cancer Register. Three random age- and sex-matched controls per case were sampled from the Total Population Register using incidence density sampling. We assessed exposure through a questionnaire in 2021, and data on potential confounders were retrieved from registers. We used multivariable logistic regression to estimate the incidence rate ratio (IRR) of malignant lymphoma in tattooed individuals. Findings: The study population consisted of 11,905 individuals, and the response rate was 54% among cases (n = 1398) and 47% among controls (n = 4193). The tattoo prevalence was 21% among cases and 18% among controls. Tattooed individuals had a higher adjusted risk of overall lymphoma (IRR = 1.21; 95% CI 0.99-1.48). The risk of lymphoma was highest in individuals with less than two years between their first tattoo and the index year (IRR = 1.81; 95% CI 1.03-3.20). The risk decreased with intermediate exposure duration (three to ten years) but increased again in individuals who received their first tattoo ≥11 years before the index year (IRR = 1.19; 95% CI 0.94-1.50). We found no evidence of increasing risk with a larger area of total tattooed body surface. The risk associated with tattoo exposure seemed to be highest for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (IRR 1.30; 95% CI 0.99-1.71) and follicular lymphoma (IRR 1.29; 95% CI 0.92-1.82). Interpretation: Our findings suggested that tattoo exposure was associated with an increased risk of malignant lymphoma. More epidemiologic research is urgently needed to establish causality. Funding: The Swedish Research Council for Health, Working Life and Welfare.
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BACKGROUND: Pandemics are linked with declining birth rates, but little is known about how the COVID-19 pandemic has influenced childbearing decisions. We aimed to investigate the associations between the COVID-19 pandemic and reproductive decisions, specifically to identify potential changes in the frequency of deliveries and induced abortions in Skåne, Sweden. METHODS: Using the Skåne Healthcare Register, we identified women aged 15-45 years who had at least one pregnancy-related care visit registered between 1 January 2013 and 11 November 11 2021. Deliveries and induced abortions were identified, and changes in weekly delivery and abortion counts were assessed using an interrupted time series design. Relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated from a Poisson regression model. RESULTS: During the study period we identified 129 131 deliveries and 38 591 abortions. Compared with the counterfactual (exposed interval assuming COVID-19 had not occurred), pandemic exposure was associated with fewer deliveries (RR 0.93; 95% CI 0.89 to 0.98). For abortions, pandemic exposure appeared to be associated with fewer abortions (RR 0.95; 95% CI 0.90 to 1.00); however, age-related differences were found. Among women aged 25 years and over, pandemic exposure was more strongly associated with fewer abortions. Contrastingly, among women aged under 25 years, abortions appeared to increase. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic seemed to have contributed to a decline in births in Southern Sweden. During the same period, abortions declined in women in the older age range, but contrastingly increased among younger women.
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BACKGROUND: Most cerebral palsy (CP) cases have an unexplained etiology, but a role for environmental exposures has been suggested. One purported environmental risk factor is exposure to endocrine-disrupting pollutants specifically per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). OBJECTIVES: We investigated the association between prenatal PFAS exposures and CP in Swedish children. METHODS: In this case-control study, 322 CP cases, 343 population controls, and 258 preterm controls were identified from a birth registry in combination with a CP follow-up program from 1995 to 2014 and linked to a biobank which contains serum samples from week 10-14 of pregnancy. Maternal serum concentrations of four PFAS compounds: perfluorohexane sulfonate (PFHxS), perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA), and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) were analyzed using liquid chromatography-tandem-mass-spectrometry. We estimated odds ratios (ORs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) for CP and each PFAS in quartiles and as continuous variables controlling for various sociodemographic and lifestyle factors. RESULTS: In crude and adjusted analyses, we did not find consistent evidence of associations between serum PFHxS, PFOA, PFNA, PFOS and concentrations in early pregnancy and CP, except in preterm infants. The ORs comparing the highest PFAS quartiles to the lowest were 1.05 (95 % CI: 0.63-1.76), 0.96 (95 % CI: 0.55-1.68), 0.71 (95 % CI: 0.41-1.25), and 1.17 (95 % CI: 0.61-2.26), for PFHxS, PFOA, PFNA, and PFOS, respectively. Some positive associations were observed for preterm infants, but the results were imprecise. Similar patterns were observed in analyses treating PFAS as continuous variables. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found little evidence that early pregnancy prenatal exposure to PFHxS, PFOA, PFNA, or PFOS increases the risk of CP. However, some positive associations were observed for preterm cases and warrant further investigation.
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Ácidos Alcanesulfónicos , Parálisis Cerebral , Contaminantes Ambientales , Fluorocarburos , Embarazo , Lactante , Femenino , Humanos , Recién Nacido , Niño , Estudios de Casos y Controles , Parálisis Cerebral/inducido químicamente , Parálisis Cerebral/epidemiología , Recien Nacido Prematuro , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales , AlcanosulfonatosRESUMEN
Background: No strong and consistent variables to predict outcome after pain rehabilitation have been reported in patients with chronic musculoskeletal pain. The aim of the present study was to clarify if baseline variables could predict successful outcome after a unique, individualized, physiotherapist-led rehabilitation of nine sessions. Methods: In 274 individuals with severe chronic musculoskeletal pain, the risk ratio (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated for potentially predictive baseline variables on successful outcomes of pain management, overall health, and pain rating. Results: Statistically significant results show that patients rating moderate or severe baseline pain were in both cases 14% less likely to improve pain management compared to patients rating mild baseline pain (RR = 0.86; 95% CI 0.77-0.97, RR = 0.86; 95% CI 0.74-1.00). Patients with the shortest pain duration were 1.61 times more likely to improve overall health (RR = 1.61; 95% CI 1.13-2.29) compared to patients reporting the longest pain duration (>5 years). Patients reporting anxiety/depression or severe pain were in both cases 1.48 times more likely to improve overall health compared to better baseline presentations (RR = 1.48; 95% CI 1.16-1.88, RR = 1.48; 95% CI 1.03-2.15). Patients with regional/generalized pain were 36% less likely to rate pain reduction (RR = 0.64; 95% CI 0.41-1.00) compared to patients rating localized baseline pain. Of 17 potentially predictive baseline variables, four reached statistical significance for at least one of the three outcomes; although none of them for all three outcomes. Conclusions: Of 17 potentially predictive baseline variables, mild pain ratings, short pain duration, and localized baseline pain were statistically significantly associated with improvements after individual, physiotherapist-led rehabilitation for patients with chronic musculoskeletal pain. This suggests that this type of rehabilitation probably should be offered early in the pain process. Reporting anxiety/depression or severe pain at the baseline did not hinder the improvements of overall health.
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Dolor Crónico , Dolor Musculoesquelético , Fisioterapeutas , Humanos , Manejo del Dolor , DepresiónRESUMEN
PURPOSE: The Swedish Tattoo and Body Modifications Cohort (TABOO) cohort was established to provide an infrastructure for epidemiological studies researching the role of tattoos and other body modifications as risk factors for adverse health outcomes. It is the first population-based cohort with detailed exposure assessment of decorative, cosmetic, and medical tattoos, piercing, scarification, henna tattoos, cosmetic laser treatments, hair dyeing, and sun habits. The level of detail in the exposure assessment of tattoos allows for investigation of crude dose-response relationships. PARTICIPANTS: The TABOO cohort includes 13 049 individuals that participated in a questionnaire survey conducted in 2021 (response rate 49%). Outcome data are retrieved from the National Patient Register, the National Prescribed Drug Register and the National Cause of Death Register. Participation in the registers is regulated by Swedish law, which eliminates the risk of loss to follow-up and associated selection bias. FINDINGS TO DATE: The tattoo prevalence in TABOO is 21%. The cohort is currently used to clarify the incidence of acute and long-lasting health complaints after tattooing based on self-reported data. Using register-based outcome data, we are investigating the role of tattoos as a risk factor for immune-mediated disease, including hypersensitisation, foreign body reactions and autoimmune conditions. FUTURE PLANS: The register linkage will be renewed every third year to update the outcome data, and we have ethical approval to reapproach the responders with additional questionnaires.
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Baño de Sol , Tatuaje , Humanos , Tatuaje/efectos adversos , Tabú , Suecia/epidemiología , Encuestas y CuestionariosRESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether tumor deposits (TDs) in rectal cancer are associated with increased recurrence risk and decreased survival. BACKGROUND: Tumor deposits (TDs) are considered a risk factor for recurrence after colon cancer resection, and the presence of TDs prompts adjuvant chemotherapy. The prognostic relevance of TDs in rectal cancer requires further exploration. METHODS: All patients treated with abdominal resection surgery for rectal cancer in Sweden between 2011 and 2014 were eligible for inclusion in this retrospective cohort study based on prospectively collected data from the Swedish Colorectal Cancer Registry. The primary endpoint was local recurrence or distant metastasis. Secondary outcomes were overall and relative survival. RESULTS: Five thousand four hundred fifty-five patients were identified of which 3769 patients were analyzed after exclusion. TDs were found in 404 (10.7%) patients, including 140 (3.7%) patients with N1c-status. In TD-positive patients, local recurrence and distant metastasis rates at 5 years were 6.3% [95% CI 3.8-8.8%] and 38.9% [95% CI, 33.6-43.5%] compared with 2.7% [95% CI, 2.1-3.3%] and 14.3% [95% CI, 13.1-15.5%] in TD-negative patients. In multivariable regression analysis, the risk of local recurrence and distant metastasis were increased; HR 1.86 [95% CI, 1.09-3.19; P =0.024] and 1.87 [95% CI, 1.52-2.31; P =<0.001], respectively. Overall survival at 5 years was 68.8% [95% CI, 64.4-73.4%] in TD-positive patients and 80.7% [95% CI, 79.4-82.1%] in TD-negative patients. pN1c-patients had similar outcomes regarding local recurrence, distant metastasis, and survival as pN1a-b stage patients. TD-positive pN1a-b patients had significantly worse outcomes whereas TDs did not affect outcomes in pN2a-b patients. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that TDs have a negative impact on the prognosis in rectal cancer. Thus, efforts should be made to diagnose TD-positive rectal cancer patients preoperatively.
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Extensión Extranodal , Neoplasias del Recto , Humanos , Pronóstico , Estadificación de Neoplasias , Estudios Retrospectivos , Extensión Extranodal/patología , Neoplasias del Recto/patología , Recurrencia Local de Neoplasia/epidemiología , Recurrencia Local de Neoplasia/patologíaRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: To study the agreement between clinical axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) diagnoses and fulfilment of the Assessment of SpondyloArthritis international Society (ASAS) axSpA and modified New York (mNY) classification criteria, and to compare disease/health status between axSpA subtypes. METHOD: Patients with prevalent, clinical axSpA attending a rheumatology clinic were enrolled in a cross-sectional study. Assessments included physical evaluation, laboratory testing, questionnaires, and appropriate imaging, allowing classification. Standard axSpA outcome measures were compared between patients fulfilling mNY/radiographic versus non-radiographic axSpA (r-axSpA/nr-axSpA) criteria. RESULTS: Of 239 consecutively included patients, 141 fulfilled ASAS r-axSpA and/or mNY criteria, while 57 fulfilled nr-axSpA criteria. The agreement between r-axSpA and mNY criteria fulfilment was 94%. The positive predictive value (PPV) of a clinical ankylosing spondylitis (AS) diagnosis for mNY criteria fulfilment was 71%; the PPV of an undifferentiated axSpA (u-axSpA) diagnosis for fulfilment of nr-axSpA criteria was 30% and 40% for mNY criteria. Patients with r-axSpA/AS were older, more often men, and had longer disease duration, more uveitis, and worse spinal mobility than nr-axSpA patients, who had more enthesitis and dactylitis. CONCLUSION: We found an overall good concordance between clinical axSpA diagnoses and classification criteria fulfilment, with 83% fulfilling ASAS axSpA and/or mNY criteria. Regarding axSpA subtypes, the concordance was weaker, and although the ICD-10 code for AS correctly identified patients meeting mNY criteria in 71% of cases, one-third of mNY-positive patients lacked an AS diagnosis. Moreover, clinical u-axSpA diagnoses could not serve as a proxy to identify nr-axSpA, highlighting the importance of thorough classification in research on axSpA subtypes.
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Espondiloartritis Axial no Radiográfica , Espondiloartritis , Espondilitis Anquilosante , Masculino , Humanos , Estudios Transversales , Radiografía , Espondiloartritis/diagnóstico , Espondilitis Anquilosante/diagnósticoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Children with chronic diseases are reported to have increased risk of psychiatric comorbidity. Few studies have investigated this risk in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA), with conflicting results. We performed a population-based, longitudinal cohort study of the risk of depression and anxiety in south-Swedish patients with juvenile arthritis. METHODS: The south-Swedish JIA cohort (n = 640), a population-based cohort with validated JIA diagnosis 1980 - 2010 and comparators, a reference group of 3200 individuals free from JIA, matched for sex, year of birth and residential region, was used. Data on comorbid diagnosis with depression or anxiety were obtained from the Skåne Healthcare Register, containing all healthcare contacts in the region, from 1998 to 2019. We used Cox proportional models for the calculation of hazard ratios. RESULTS: During the study period, 1998 to 2019, 93 (14.5%) of the individuals in the JIA group were diagnosed with depression, and 111 (17.3%) with anxiety. Corresponding numbers among the references was 474 (14.8%) with depression and 557 (17.4%) with anxiety. Hazard ratio for depression was 1.1 (95% CI 0.9 - 1.5) in females and 0.8 (95% CI 0.5 - 1.4) in males, and for anxiety 1.2 (95% CI 0.9 - 1.5) in females and 0.6 (95% CI 0.4 - 1.1) in males. There were no statistically significant hazard ratios when analyzing subgroups of JIA patients with long disease duration or treatment with disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with JIA do not have any statistically increased risk of being diagnosed with depression or anxiety compared to matched references.
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Antirreumáticos , Artritis Juvenil , Niño , Masculino , Femenino , Humanos , Artritis Juvenil/complicaciones , Artritis Juvenil/tratamiento farmacológico , Artritis Juvenil/epidemiología , Estudios Longitudinales , Antirreumáticos/uso terapéutico , Modelos de Riesgos Proporcionales , ComorbilidadRESUMEN
STUDY QUESTION: Is the chance of childbirth, and risk of infertility, pregnancy loss and need for assisted reproduction different for women with asthma compared to women without asthma? SUMMARY ANSWER: Women with asthma had comparable chances of giving birth compared to the reference population, however, their risk of both infertility and pregnancy loss, as well their need for medically assisted reproduction, was higher. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Reproductive dysfunction has been reported among women with asthma, including longer time to pregnancy, increased risk of pregnancy loss and a higher need of medically assisted reproduction, but their risk of clinical infertility is unknown. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: This longitudinal register-based cohort study included all women with a healthcare visit for delivery, infertility, pregnancy loss or induced abortion in the southernmost county in Sweden, over the last 20 years. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Using the Skåne Healthcare Register, we identified all women aged 15-45 between 1998 and 2019, who received a diagnosis of asthma before their first reproductive outcome (n = 6445). Chance of childbirth and risk of infertility, pregnancy loss and assisted reproduction were compared to a healthcare seeking population of women without any asthma (n = 200â248), using modified Poisson regressions. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: The chance of childbirth was not different between women with asthma versus those without, adjusted risk ratio (aRR) = 1.02, 95% CI: 1.01-1.03. The risk of seeking care for infertility was increased, aRR = 1.29, 95% CI: 1.21-1.39, and women with asthma more often needed assisted reproduction aRR = 1.34 95% CI: 1.18-1.52. The risk of suffering a pregnancy loss was higher, aRR = 1.21, 95% CI: 1.15-1.28, and induced abortions were more common, aRR = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.11-1.20, among women with asthma. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: The study was an observational study based on healthcare visits and lacked detailed anthropometric data, thus residual confounding cannot be excluded. Only women with a healthcare visit for a reproductive outcome were included, which cannot be translated into pregnancy intention. A misclassification, presumed to be non-differential, may arise from an incorrect or missing diagnosis of asthma or female infertility, biasing the results towards the null. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: This study points towards reproductive dysfunction associated with asthma, specifically in regards to the ability to maintain a pregnancy and the risk of needing medically assisted reproduction following clinical infertility, but reassuringly the chance of subsequently giving birth was not lower for these women. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This article is part of the ReproUnion collaborative study, co-financed by EU Interreg ÖKS, Capital Region of Denmark, Region Skåne and Ferring Pharmaceuticals. The authors have no competing interests to disclose. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.
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Aborto Inducido , Aborto Espontáneo , Asma , Infertilidad Femenina , Embarazo , Femenino , Humanos , Estudios de Cohortes , Aborto Espontáneo/epidemiología , Reproducción , Infertilidad Femenina/complicaciones , Infertilidad Femenina/terapia , Infertilidad Femenina/epidemiología , Asma/complicaciones , Asma/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Globally, 700 000 people die every year by suicide. Health care consultation patterns the period before suicide could be one potential way to identify people at risk for suicide. Therefore, this study examines health care patterns up to one year prior to the suicide by age, sex and prior diagnoses and specifically investigates if and how this differs from the general population of Skåne, Sweden. METHODS: This cohort study includes all individuals, aged 15 and older, that died by suicide in Region Skåne, Sweden from 2004 to 2015 (n = 1653). The individuals were identified through the Cause of death register and then linked to the Skåne healthcare register. Health care data was analyzed as proportions consulting different types of health care the month and year preceding the suicide, we also investigated the impact of age, sex and the occurrence of prior psychiatric and pain diagnoses. Additionally, we compared the proportion of consulting care among the suicide victims and the general population of Skåne. RESULTS: In the month before their death, 53% of the suicide victims had any health care consultation, compared with 20% in the general population of Skåne, a given month (p < 0.0001). The corresponding figures for the year prior to suicide was 86% among those who died by suicide, compared to 69% in the general population of Skåne, a given year (p < 0.0001). Women, and those having a documented history of psychiatric diagnosis were more likely to have health care consultations in the month and year preceding suicide (p < 0.001), compared to men and suicide victims without a history of psychiatric disease. Older adults that died by suicide, were less likely to consult psychiatric care compared to the younger suicide victims (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: A majority of the suicide victims consulted health care in the near time before death and the proportion of seeking health care was significantly higher than in the general population of Skåne and higher among female suicide victims as compared to males. Alternative preventive screening measures should be considered for individuals consulting health care, especially for older people and individuals outside the psychiatric care.
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Prevención del Suicidio , Anciano , Estudios de Cohortes , Atención a la Salud , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Aceptación de la Atención de Salud , Suecia/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
The term hybrid immunity is used to denote the immunological status of vaccinated individuals with a history of natural infection. Reports of new SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern motivate continuous rethought and renewal of COVID-19 vaccination programs. We used a naturalistic case-control study design to compare the effectiveness of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine to hybrid immunity 180 days post-vaccination in prioritized and non-prioritized populations vaccinated before 31 July 2021 in three Swedish counties (total population 1,760,000). Subjects with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test recorded within 6 months before vaccination (n = 36,247; 6%) were matched to vaccinated-only controls. In the prioritized population exposed to the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Delta variants post-vaccination, the odds ratio (OR) for breakthrough infection was 2.2 (95% CI, 1.6−2.8; p < 0.001) in the vaccinated-only group compared with the hybrid immunity group, while in the later vaccinated non-prioritized population, the OR decreased from 4.3 (95% CI, 2.2−8.6; p < 0.001) during circulation of the Delta variant to 1.9 (95% CI, 1.7−2.1; p < 0.001) with the introduction of the Omicron variant (B.1.617.2). We conclude that hybrid immunity provides gains in protection, but that the benefits are smaller for risk groups and with circulation of the Omicron variant and its sublineages.
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Computational models for predicting the early course of the COVID-19 pandemic played a central role in policy-making at regional and national levels. We performed a systematic review, data synthesis, and secondary validation of studies that reported on prediction models addressing the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden. A literature search in January 2021 based on the search triangle model identified 1672 peer-reviewed articles, preprints and reports. After applying inclusion criteria 52 studies remained out of which 12 passed a Risk of Bias Opinion Tool. When comparing model predictions with actual outcomes only 4 studies exhibited an acceptable forecast (mean absolute percentage error, MAPE < 20%). Models that predicted disease incidence could not be assessed due to the lack of reliable data during 2020. Drawing conclusions about the accuracy of the models with acceptable methodological quality was challenging because some models were published before the time period for the prediction, while other models were published during the prediction period or even afterwards. We conclude that the forecasting models involving Sweden developed during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 had limited accuracy. The knowledge attained in this study can be used to improve the preparedness for coming pandemics.
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COVID-19 , Pandemias , COVID-19/epidemiología , Simulación por Computador , Predicción , Humanos , Suecia/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
We report on local nowcasting (short-term forecasting) of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) hospitalizations based on syndromic (symptom) data recorded in regular healthcare routines in Östergötland County (population ≈465,000), Sweden, early in the pandemic, when broad laboratory testing was unavailable. Daily nowcasts were supplied to the local healthcare management based on analyses of the time lag between telenursing calls with the chief complaints (cough by adult or fever by adult) and COVID-19 hospitalization. The complaint cough by adult showed satisfactory performance (Pearson correlation coefficient r>0.80; mean absolute percentage error <20%) in nowcasting the incidence of daily COVID-19 hospitalizations 14 days in advance until the incidence decreased to <1.5/100,000 population, whereas the corresponding performance for fever by adult was unsatisfactory. Our results support local nowcasting of hospitalizations on the basis of symptom data recorded in routine healthcare during the initial stage of a pandemic.
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COVID-19 , Adulto , COVID-19/epidemiología , Atención a la Salud , Predicción , Hospitalización , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2 , Suecia/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
Depression is a common, recurrent disorder. There is a need for readily available treatments with few negative side effects, that demands little resources and that are effective both in the short- and long term. Our aim was to investigate the long-term effectiveness of two different interventions; physical exercise and internet-based cognitive behavioural therapy (internet-CBT), compared to usual care in patients with mild to moderate depression in a Swedish primary care setting. We performed a register-based 3-year follow-up study of participants in the randomized controlled trial REGASSA (n = 940) using healthcare utilization and dispensed medicines as outcomes. We found no difference between the three groups regarding proportion of participants consulting healthcare due to mental illness or pain during follow-up. Regarding number of consultations, there was no difference between the groups, except for consultations related to pain. For this outcome both treatment arms had significantly fewer consultations compared to usual care, during year 2-3, the risk ratio (RR) for physical exercise and internet-CBT was 0.64 (95% CI = 0.43-0.95) and 0.61 (95% CI = 0.41-0.90), respectively. A significantly lower proportion of patients in both treatment arms were dispensed hypnotics and sedatives year 2-3 compared to the usual care arm, RR for both physical exercise and internet-CBT was 0.72 (95% CI = 0.53-0.98). No other differences between the groups were found. In conclusion, considering long-term effects, both physical exercise and internet-CBT, being resource-efficient treatments, could be considered as appropriate additions for patients with mild to moderate depression in primary care settings. Trial registration: The original RCT was registered with the German Clinical Trial Register (DRKS study ID: DRKS00008745).
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The transmission of COVID-19 is dependent on social mixing, the basic rate of which varies with sociodemographic, cultural, and geographic factors. Alterations in social mixing and subsequent changes in transmission dynamics eventually affect hospital admissions. We employ these observations to model and predict regional hospital admissions in Sweden during the COVID-19 pandemic. We use an SEIR-model for each region in Sweden in which the social mixing is assumed to depend on mobility data from public transport utilisation and locations for mobile phone usage. The results show that the model could capture the timing of the first and beginning of the second wave of the pandemic 3 weeks in advance without any additional assumptions about seasonality. Further, we show that for two major regions of Sweden, models with public transport data outperform models using mobile phone usage. We conclude that a model based on routinely collected mobility data makes it possible to predict future hospital admissions for COVID-19 3 weeks in advance.
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Algoritmos , COVID-19/transmisión , Teléfono Celular/estadística & datos numéricos , Hospitalización/estadística & datos numéricos , Modelos Teóricos , Admisión del Paciente/estadística & datos numéricos , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/virología , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa/estadística & datos numéricos , Predicción/métodos , Geografía , Hospitalización/tendencias , Humanos , Pandemias/prevención & control , Admisión del Paciente/tendencias , Estudios Retrospectivos , SARS-CoV-2/fisiología , Suecia/epidemiología , Viaje/estadística & datos numéricosRESUMEN
We demonstrate that finite impulse response (FIR) models can be applied to analyze the time evolution of an epidemic with its impact on deaths and healthcare strain. Using time series data for COVID-19-related cases, ICU admissions and deaths from Sweden, the FIR model gives a consistent epidemiological trajectory for a simple delta filter function. This results in a consistent scaling between the time series if appropriate time delays are applied and allows the reconstruction of cases for times before July 2020, when RT-PCR testing was not widely available. Combined with randomized RT-PCR study results, we utilize this approach to estimate the total number of infections in Sweden, and the corresponding infection-to-fatality ratio (IFR), infection-to-case ratio (ICR), and infection-to-ICU admission ratio (IIAR). Our values for IFR, ICR and IIAR are essentially constant over large parts of 2020 in contrast with claims of healthcare adaptation or mutated virus variants importantly affecting these ratios. We observe a diminished IFR in late summer 2020 as well as a strong decline during 2021, following the launch of a nation-wide vaccination program. The total number of infections during 2020 is estimated to 1.3 million, indicating that Sweden was far from herd immunity.
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COVID-19/epidemiología , Mortalidad/tendencias , SARS-CoV-2/aislamiento & purificación , COVID-19/mortalidad , Prueba de Ácido Nucleico para COVID-19 , Análisis de Elementos Finitos , Hospitalización/estadística & datos numéricos , Humanos , Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos , SARS-CoV-2/genética , Suecia/epidemiología , Factores de TiempoRESUMEN
There is concern that immunotoxic environmental contaminants, particularly perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), may play a role in the clinical course of COVID-19 and epidemiologic studies are needed to answer if high-exposed populations are especially vulnerable in light of the ongoing pandemic. The objective was, therefore, to determine if exposure to highly PFAS-contaminated drinking water was associated with an increased incidence of COVID-19 in Ronneby, Sweden, during the first year of the pandemic. We conducted an ecological study determining the sex- and age-standardized incidence ratio (SIR) in the adult population relative to a neighboring reference town with similar demographic characteristics but with only background levels of exposure. In Sweden, COVID-19 is subject to mandatory reporting, and we retrieved aggregated data on all verified cases until 3 March 2021 from the Public Health Agency of Sweden. The SIR in Ronneby was estimated at 1.19 (95% CI: 1.12; 1.27). The results suggest a potential link between high PFAS exposure and susceptibility to COVID-19 that warrants further research to clarify causality.
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Ácidos Alcanesulfónicos , COVID-19 , Agua Potable , Fluorocarburos , Contaminantes Químicos del Agua , Adulto , Ácidos Alcanesulfónicos/análisis , Ácidos Alcanesulfónicos/toxicidad , Agua Potable/análisis , Fluorocarburos/análisis , Fluorocarburos/toxicidad , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2 , Suecia/epidemiología , Contaminantes Químicos del Agua/análisis , Contaminantes Químicos del Agua/toxicidadRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: There is no consensus on best content, set-up, category of involved healthcare professionals or duration of rehabilitation-programs for patients with chronic musculoskeletal pain, and outcomes show varying results. Individual care regimes for sub-groups of patients have been proposed. AIM: To describe the type of interventions used in a physiotherapist-led, rehabilitation-program for patients with chronic musculoskeletal pain, refractory to preceding treatments. A second aim was to report clinical outcomes at 1-year follow-up after the intervention period. METHODS: All patients referred to physiotherapist within a specialist pain-unit due to being refractory to preceding treatments, and deemed fit to undergo physiotherapy-based, individualized rehabilitation during 2014-2018 were consecutively included and followed-up 1 year after ending the program. The inclusion was based on structured 'clinical reasoning' using the referral, examination and on patient-relevant outcome measures. The individual interventions, recorded according to a manual used when reading the patients' medical records, were described. Primary outcomes were clinical results of perceived pain, disability and overall health at start, discharge and 1 year after discharge. RESULTS: In total, 274 patients (mean age 42 years, 71% women) were included, suffering from chronic, severe, musculoskeletal pain (VAS median 7/10, duration median 2.8 years) and moderate disability. The most frequent interventions were education, sensorimotor training, physical activity-advice and interventions for structures/functions (for example manual techniques, stretching) for a median of nine sessions during five months. Despite refractory to preceding treatments, 45% of the patients rated clinically important improvements on pain, 61% on disability and 50% on overall health at discharge and the figures were similar at 1-year follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: A physiotherapist-led, one-to-one, rehabilitation-program of median nine sessions during five months, combining individualized education, sensorimotor training, physical activity-advice and interventions for structures/functions rendered clinically relevant improvements on pain, disability and overall health in half of the patients at 1-year follow-up. Since the cohort consisted of patients refractory to preceding treatments, we believe that these results warrant further studies to identify the subgroups of patients with chronic musculoskeletal pain that will improve from new, distinctive, resource-effective rehabilitation-programs involving individualized rehabilitation.