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Coronary artery disease (CAD) exists on a spectrum of disease represented by a combination of risk factors and pathogenic processes. An in silico score for CAD built using machine learning and clinical data in electronic health records captures disease progression, severity and underdiagnosis on this spectrum and could enhance genetic discovery efforts for CAD. Here we tested associations of rare and ultrarare coding variants with the in silico score for CAD in the UK Biobank, All of Us Research Program and BioMe Biobank. We identified associations in 17 genes; of these, 14 show at least moderate levels of prior genetic, biological and/or clinical support for CAD. We also observed an excess of ultrarare coding variants in 321 aggregated CAD genes, suggesting more ultrarare variant associations await discovery. These results expand our understanding of the genetic etiology of CAD and illustrate how digital markers can enhance genetic association investigations for complex diseases.
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Enfermedad de la Arteria Coronaria , Predisposición Genética a la Enfermedad , Aprendizaje Automático , Enfermedad de la Arteria Coronaria/genética , Humanos , Exoma/genética , Secuenciación del Exoma/métodos , Variación Genética , Estudio de Asociación del Genoma Completo/métodos , Femenino , Polimorfismo de Nucleótido SimpleRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Diet is a key modifiable risk factor of coronary artery disease (CAD). However, the causal effects of specific dietary traits on CAD risk remain unclear. With the expansion of dietary data in population biobanks, Mendelian randomization (MR) could help enable the efficient estimation of causality in diet-disease associations. OBJECTIVES: The primary goal was to test causality for 13 common dietary traits on CAD risk using a systematic 2-sample MR framework. A secondary goal was to identify plasma metabolites mediating diet-CAD associations suspected to be causal. METHODS: Cross-sectional genetic and dietary data on up to 420,531 UK Biobank and 184,305 CARDIoGRAMplusC4D individuals of European ancestry were used in 2-sample MR. The primary analysis used fixed effect inverse-variance weighted regression, while sensitivity analyses used weighted median estimation, MR-Egger regression, and MR-Pleiotropy Residual Sum and Outlier. RESULTS: Genetic variants serving as proxies for muesli intake were negatively associated with CAD risk (OR: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.65-0.84; P = 5.385 × 10-4). Sensitivity analyses using weighted median estimation supported this with a significant association in the same direction. Additionally, we identified higher plasma acetate levels as a potential mediator (OR: 0.03; 95% CI: 0.01-0.12; P = 1.15 × 10-4). CONCLUSIONS: Muesli, a mixture of oats, seeds, nuts, dried fruit, and milk, may causally reduce CAD risk. Circulating levels of acetate, a gut microbiota-derived short-chain fatty acid, could be mediating its cardioprotective effects. These findings highlight the role of gut flora in cardiovascular health and help prioritize randomized trials on dietary interventions for CAD.
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Studies have shown that drug targets with human genetic support are more likely to succeed in clinical trials. Hence, a tool integrating genetic evidence to prioritize drug target genes is beneficial for drug discovery. We built a genetic priority score (GPS) by integrating eight genetic features with drug indications from the Open Targets and SIDER databases. The top 0.83%, 0.28% and 0.19% of the GPS conferred a 5.3-, 9.9- and 11.0-fold increased effect of having an indication, respectively. In addition, we observed that targets in the top 0.28% of the score were 1.7-, 3.7- and 8.8-fold more likely to advance from phase I to phases II, III and IV, respectively. Complementary to the GPS, we incorporated the direction of genetic effect and drug mechanism into a directional version of the score called the GPS with direction of effect. We applied our method to 19,365 protein-coding genes and 399 drug indications and made all results available through a web portal.
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Genética Humana , Farmacogenética , Humanos , Descubrimiento de DrogasRESUMEN
Systemic autoimmune rheumatic diseases (SARDs) can lead to irreversible damage if left untreated, yet these patients often endure long diagnostic journeys before being diagnosed and treated. Machine learning may help overcome the challenges of diagnosing SARDs and inform clinical decision-making. Here, we developed and tested a machine learning model to identify patients who should receive rheumatological evaluation for SARDs using longitudinal electronic health records of 161,584 individuals from two institutions. The model demonstrated high performance for predicting cases of autoantibody-tested individuals in a validation set, an external test set, and an independent cohort with a broader case definition. This approach identified more individuals for autoantibody testing compared with current clinical standards and a greater proportion of autoantibody carriers among those tested. Diagnoses of SARDs and other autoimmune conditions increased with higher model probabilities. The model detected a need for autoantibody testing and rheumatology encounters up to five years before the test date and assessment date, respectively. Altogether, these findings illustrate that the clinical manifestations of a diverse array of autoimmune conditions are detectable in electronic health records using machine learning, which may help systematize and accelerate autoimmune testing.
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Enfermedades Autoinmunes , Registros Electrónicos de Salud , Humanos , Enfermedades Autoinmunes/diagnóstico , Pacientes , Autoanticuerpos , Aprendizaje AutomáticoRESUMEN
Background: Causality between plasma triglyceride (TG) levels and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk remains controversial despite more than four decades of study and two recent landmark trials, STRENGTH, and REDUCE-IT. Further unclear is the association between TG levels and non-atherosclerotic diseases across organ systems. Methods: Here, we conducted a phenome-wide, two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis using inverse-variance weighted (IVW) regression to systematically infer the causal effects of plasma TG levels on 2600 disease traits in the European ancestry population of UK Biobank. For replication, we externally tested 221 nominally significant associations (p<0.05) in an independent cohort from FinnGen. To account for potential horizontal pleiotropy and the influence of invalid instrumental variables, we performed sensitivity analyses using MR-Egger regression, weighted median estimator, and MR-PRESSO. Finally, we used multivariable MR (MVMR) controlling for correlated lipid fractions to distinguish the independent effect of plasma TG levels. Results: Our results identified seven disease traits reaching Bonferroni-corrected significance in both the discovery (p<1.92 × 10-5) and replication analyses (p<2.26 × 10-4), suggesting a causal relationship between plasma TG levels and ASCVDs, including coronary artery disease (OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.24-1.43, p=2.47 × 10-13). We also identified 12 disease traits that were Bonferroni-significant in the discovery or replication analysis and at least nominally significant in the other analysis (p<0.05), identifying plasma TG levels as a novel potential risk factor for nine non-ASCVD diseases, including uterine leiomyoma (OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.10-1.29, p=1.17 × 10-5). Conclusions: Taking a phenome-wide, two-sample MR approach, we identified causal associations between plasma TG levels and 19 disease traits across organ systems. Our findings suggest unrealized drug repurposing opportunities or adverse effects related to approved and emerging TG-lowering agents, as well as mechanistic insights for future studies. Funding: RD is supported by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) (R35-GM124836) and the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute of the NIH (R01-HL139865 and R01-HL155915).
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Aterosclerosis , Enfermedad de la Arteria Coronaria , Humanos , Análisis de la Aleatorización Mendeliana , Fenotipo , Enfermedad de la Arteria Coronaria/genética , Triglicéridos , Estudio de Asociación del Genoma Completo , Polimorfismo de Nucleótido SimpleRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Binary diagnosis of coronary artery disease does not preserve the complexity of disease or quantify its severity or its associated risk with death; hence, a quantitative marker of coronary artery disease is warranted. We evaluated a quantitative marker of coronary artery disease derived from probabilities of a machine learning model. METHODS: In this cohort study, we developed and validated a coronary artery disease-predictive machine learning model using 95 935 electronic health records and assessed its probabilities as in-silico scores for coronary artery disease (ISCAD; range 0 [lowest probability] to 1 [highest probability]) in participants in two longitudinal biobank cohorts. We measured the association of ISCAD with clinical outcomes-namely, coronary artery stenosis, obstructive coronary artery disease, multivessel coronary artery disease, all-cause death, and coronary artery disease sequelae. FINDINGS: Among 95 935 participants, 35 749 were from the BioMe Biobank (median age 61 years [IQR 18]; 14 599 [41%] were male and 21 150 [59%] were female; 5130 [14%] were with diagnosed coronary artery disease) and 60 186 were from the UK Biobank (median age 62 [15] years; 25 031 [42%] male and 35 155 [58%] female; 8128 [14%] with diagnosed coronary artery disease). The model predicted coronary artery disease with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0·95 (95% CI 0·94-0·95; sensitivity of 0·94 [0·94-0·95] and specificity of 0·82 [0·81-0·83]) and 0·93 (0·92-0·93; sensitivity of 0·90 [0·89-0·90] and specificity of 0·88 [0·87-0·88]) in the BioMe validation and holdout sets, respectively, and 0·91 (0·91-0·91; sensitivity of 0·84 [0·83-0·84] and specificity of 0·83 [0·82-0·83]) in the UK Biobank external test set. ISCAD captured coronary artery disease risk from known risk factors, pooled cohort equations, and polygenic risk scores. Coronary artery stenosis increased quantitatively with ascending ISCAD quartiles (increase per quartile of 12 percentage points), including risk of obstructive coronary artery disease, multivessel coronary artery disease, and stenosis of major coronary arteries. Hazard ratios (HRs) and prevalence of all-cause death increased stepwise over ISCAD deciles (decile 1: HR 1·0 [95% CI 1·0-1·0], 0·2% prevalence; decile 6: 11 [3·9-31], 3·1% prevalence; and decile 10: 56 [20-158], 11% prevalence). A similar trend was observed for recurrent myocardial infarction. 12 (46%) undiagnosed individuals with high ISCAD (≥0·9) had clinical evidence of coronary artery disease according to the 2014 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Task Force guidelines. INTERPRETATION: Electronic health record-based machine learning was used to generate an in-silico marker for coronary artery disease that can non-invasively quantify atherosclerosis and risk of death on a continuous spectrum, and identify underdiagnosed individuals. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health.
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Enfermedad de la Arteria Coronaria , Estenosis Coronaria , Humanos , Masculino , Femenino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Enfermedad de la Arteria Coronaria/diagnóstico , Enfermedad de la Arteria Coronaria/epidemiología , Estudios de Cohortes , Valor Predictivo de las Pruebas , Estenosis Coronaria/diagnóstico , Factores de Riesgo , Aprendizaje Automático , Angiografía CoronariaRESUMEN
It is estimated that as many as 1 in 16 people worldwide suffer from rare diseases. Rare disease patients face difficulty finding diagnosis and treatment for their conditions, including long diagnostic odysseys, multiple incorrect diagnoses, and unavailable or prohibitively expensive treatments. As a result, it is likely that large electronic health record (EHR) systems include high numbers of participants suffering from undiagnosed rare disease. While this has been shown in detail for specific diseases, these studies are expensive and time consuming and have only been feasible to perform for a handful of the thousands of known rare diseases. The bulk of these undiagnosed cases are effectively hidden, with no straightforward way to differentiate them from healthy controls. The ability to access them at scale would enormously expand our capacity to study and develop drugs for rare diseases, adding to tools aimed at increasing availability of study cohorts for rare disease. In this study, we train a deep learning transformer algorithm, RarePT (Rare-Phenotype Prediction Transformer), to impute undiagnosed rare disease from EHR diagnosis codes in 436,407 participants in the UK Biobank and validated on an independent cohort from 3,333,560 individuals from the Mount Sinai Health System. We applied our model to 155 rare diagnosis codes with fewer than 250 cases each in the UK Biobank and predicted participants with elevated risk for each diagnosis, with the number of participants predicted to be at risk ranging from 85 to 22,000 for different diagnoses. These risk predictions are significantly associated with increased mortality for 65% of diagnoses, with disease burden expressed as disability-adjusted life years (DALY) for 73% of diagnoses, and with 72% of available disease-specific diagnostic tests. They are also highly enriched for known rare diagnoses in patients not included in the training set, with an odds ratio (OR) of 48.0 in cross-validation cohorts of the UK Biobank and an OR of 30.6 in the independent Mount Sinai Health System cohort. Most importantly, RarePT successfully screens for undiagnosed patients in 32 rare diseases with available diagnostic tests in the UK Biobank. Using the trained model to estimate the prevalence of undiagnosed disease in the UK Biobank for these 32 rare phenotypes, we find that at least 50% of patients remain undiagnosed for 20 of 32 diseases. These estimates provide empirical evidence of a high prevalence of undiagnosed rare disease, as well as demonstrating the enormous potential benefit of using RarePT to screen for undiagnosed rare disease patients in large electronic health systems.
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Host genetics is a key determinant of COVID-19 outcomes. Previously, the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative genome-wide association study used common variants to identify multiple loci associated with COVID-19 outcomes. However, variants with the largest impact on COVID-19 outcomes are expected to be rare in the population. Hence, studying rare variants may provide additional insights into disease susceptibility and pathogenesis, thereby informing therapeutics development. Here, we combined whole-exome and whole-genome sequencing from 21 cohorts across 12 countries and performed rare variant exome-wide burden analyses for COVID-19 outcomes. In an analysis of 5,085 severe disease cases and 571,737 controls, we observed that carrying a rare deleterious variant in the SARS-CoV-2 sensor toll-like receptor TLR7 (on chromosome X) was associated with a 5.3-fold increase in severe disease (95% CI: 2.75-10.05, p = 5.41x10-7). This association was consistent across sexes. These results further support TLR7 as a genetic determinant of severe disease and suggest that larger studies on rare variants influencing COVID-19 outcomes could provide additional insights.
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COVID-19 , Exoma , Humanos , Exoma/genética , Estudio de Asociación del Genoma Completo , COVID-19/genética , Predisposición Genética a la Enfermedad , Receptor Toll-Like 7/genética , SARS-CoV-2/genéticaRESUMEN
Phenome-wide association studies identified numerous loci associated with traits and diseases. To help interpret these associations, we constructed a phenome-wide network map of colocalized genes and phenotypes. We generated colocalized signals using the Genotype-Tissue Expression data and genome-wide association results in UK Biobank. We identified 9151 colocalized genes for 1411 phenotypes across 48 tissues. Then, we constructed bipartite networks using the colocalized signals in each tissue, and showed that the majority of links were observed in a single tissue. We applied the biLouvain clustering algorithm in each tissue-specific network to identify co-clusters of genes and phenotypes. We observed significant enrichments of these co-clusters with known biological and functional gene classes. Overall, the phenome-wide map provides links between genes, phenotypes and tissues, and can yield biological and clinical discoveries.
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Estudio de Asociación del Genoma Completo , Polimorfismo de Nucleótido Simple , Bancos de Muestras Biológicas , Fenotipo , Reino UnidoRESUMEN
Importance: Population-based assessment of disease risk associated with gene variants informs clinical decisions and risk stratification approaches. Objective: To evaluate the population-based disease risk of clinical variants in known disease predisposition genes. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study included 72â¯434 individuals with 37â¯780 clinical variants who were enrolled in the BioMe Biobank from 2007 onwards with follow-up until December 2020 and the UK Biobank from 2006 to 2010 with follow-up until June 2020. Participants had linked exome and electronic health record data, were older than 20 years, and were of diverse ancestral backgrounds. Exposures: Variants previously reported as pathogenic or predicted to cause a loss of protein function by bioinformatic algorithms (pathogenic/loss-of-function variants). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the disease risk associated with clinical variants. The risk difference (RD) between the prevalence of disease in individuals with a variant allele (penetrance) vs in individuals with a normal allele was measured. Results: Among 72â¯434 study participants, 43â¯395 were from the UK Biobank (mean [SD] age, 57 [8.0] years; 24 065 [55%] women; 2948 [7%] non-European) and 29â¯039 were from the BioMe Biobank (mean [SD] age, 56 [16] years; 17 355 [60%] women; 19 663 [68%] non-European). Of 5360 pathogenic/loss-of-function variants, 4795 (89%) were associated with an RD less than or equal to 0.05. Mean penetrance was 6.9% (95% CI, 6.0%-7.8%) for pathogenic variants and 0.85% (95% CI, 0.76%-0.95%) for benign variants reported in ClinVar (difference, 6.0 [95% CI, 5.6-6.4] percentage points), with a median of 0% for both groups due to large numbers of nonpenetrant variants. Penetrance of pathogenic/loss-of-function variants for late-onset diseases was modified by age: mean penetrance was 10.3% (95% CI, 9.0%-11.6%) in individuals 70 years or older and 8.5% (95% CI, 7.9%-9.1%) in individuals 20 years or older (difference, 1.8 [95% CI, 0.40-3.3] percentage points). Penetrance of pathogenic/loss-of-function variants was heterogeneous even in known disease predisposition genes, including BRCA1 (mean [range], 38% [0%-100%]), BRCA2 (mean [range], 38% [0%-100%]), and PALB2 (mean [range], 26% [0%-100%]). Conclusions and Relevance: In 2 large biobank cohorts, the estimated penetrance of pathogenic/loss-of-function variants was variable but generally low. Further research of population-based penetrance is needed to refine variant interpretation and clinical evaluation of individuals with these variant alleles.
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Predisposición Genética a la Enfermedad , Variación Genética , Mutación con Pérdida de Función , Penetrancia , Anciano , Bancos de Muestras Biológicas , Estudios de Cohortes , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Mutación , Reino UnidoRESUMEN
The identification of genes that evolve under recessive natural selection is a long-standing goal of population genetics research that has important applications to the discovery of genes associated with disease. We found that commonly used methods to evaluate selective constraint at the gene level are highly sensitive to genes under heterozygous selection but ubiquitously fail to detect recessively evolving genes. Additionally, more sophisticated likelihood-based methods designed to detect recessivity similarly lack power for a human gene of realistic length from current population sample sizes. However, extensive simulations suggested that recessive genes may be detectable in aggregate. Here, we offer a method informed by population genetics simulations designed to detect recessive purifying selection in gene sets. Applying this to empirical gene sets produced significant enrichments for strong recessive selection in genes previously inferred to be under recessive selection in a consanguineous cohort and in genes involved in autosomal recessive monogenic disorders.
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Frecuencia de los Genes , Genes Recesivos , Genética de Población , Selección Genética , Algoritmos , Alelos , Genes Dominantes , Predisposición Genética a la Enfermedad , Variación Genética , Genética de Población/métodos , Genómica/métodos , Genotipo , Humanos , Patrón de Herencia , Funciones de Verosimilitud , Modelos Genéticos , Mutación , Reino UnidoRESUMEN
Elevated plasma cholesterol and type 2 diabetes (T2D) are associated with coronary artery disease (CAD). Individuals treated with cholesterol-lowering statins have increased T2D risk, while individuals with hypercholesterolemia have reduced T2D risk. We explore the relationship between lipid and glucose control by constructing network models from the STARNET study with sequencing data from seven cardiometabolic tissues obtained from CAD patients during coronary artery by-pass grafting surgery. By integrating gene expression, genotype, metabolomic, and clinical data, we identify a glucose and lipid determining (GLD) regulatory network showing inverse relationships with lipid and glucose traits. Master regulators of the GLD network also impact lipid and glucose levels in inverse directions. Experimental inhibition of one of the GLD network master regulators, lanosterol synthase (LSS), in mice confirms the inverse relationships to glucose and lipid levels as predicted by our model and provides mechanistic insights.
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Glucemia/metabolismo , Enfermedad de la Arteria Coronaria/metabolismo , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/metabolismo , Glucosa/metabolismo , Metabolismo de los Lípidos , Modelos Biológicos , Animales , Colesterol/sangre , Enfermedad de la Arteria Coronaria/sangre , Enfermedad de la Arteria Coronaria/genética , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/sangre , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/genética , Femenino , Regulación de la Expresión Génica , Redes Reguladoras de Genes , Predisposición Genética a la Enfermedad/genética , Estudio de Asociación del Genoma Completo/métodos , Humanos , Hipercolesterolemia/sangre , Hipercolesterolemia/genética , Hipercolesterolemia/metabolismo , Ratones Endogámicos C57BL , Polimorfismo de Nucleótido SimpleRESUMEN
Understanding the relationship between natural selection and phenotypic variation has been a long-standing challenge in human population genetics. With the emergence of biobank-scale datasets, along with new statistical metrics to approximate strength of purifying selection at the variant level, it is now possible to correlate a proxy of individual relative fitness with a range of medical phenotypes. We calculated a per-individual deleterious load score by summing the total number of derived alleles per individual after incorporating a weight that approximates strength of purifying selection. We assessed four methods for the weight, including GERP, phyloP, CADD, and fitcons. By quantitatively tracking each of these scores with the site frequency spectrum, we identified phyloP as the most appropriate weight. The phyloP-weighted load score was then calculated across 15,129,142 variants in 335,161 individuals from the UK Biobank and tested for association on 1,380 medical phenotypes. After accounting for multiple test correction, we observed a strong association of the load score amongst coding sites only on 27 traits including body mass, adiposity and metabolic rate. We further observed that the association signals were driven by common variants (derived allele frequency > 5%) with high phyloP score (phyloP > 2). Finally, through permutation analyses, we showed that the load score amongst coding sites had an excess of nominally significant associations on many medical phenotypes. These results suggest a broad impact of deleterious load on medical phenotypes and highlight the deleterious load score as a tool to disentangle the complex relationship between natural selection and medical phenotypes.
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Evolución Molecular , Aptitud Genética/genética , Genética de Población , Selección Genética/genética , Alelos , Bancos de Muestras Biológicas , Índice de Masa Corporal , Femenino , Frecuencia de los Genes , Estudios de Asociación Genética , Predisposición Genética a la Enfermedad , Variación Genética/genética , Humanos , Masculino , Reino UnidoRESUMEN
The resources generated by the GTEx consortium offer unprecedented opportunities to advance our understanding of the biology of human diseases. Here, we present an in-depth examination of the phenotypic consequences of transcriptome regulation and a blueprint for the functional interpretation of genome-wide association study-discovered loci. Across a broad set of complex traits and diseases, we demonstrate widespread dose-dependent effects of RNA expression and splicing. We develop a data-driven framework to benchmark methods that prioritize causal genes and find no single approach outperforms the combination of multiple approaches. Using colocalization and association approaches that take into account the observed allelic heterogeneity of gene expression, we propose potential target genes for 47% (2519 out of 5385) of the GWAS loci examined.
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Expresión Génica , Predisposición Genética a la Enfermedad/genética , Estudio de Asociación del Genoma Completo/métodos , Genotipo , Genes , Humanos , Herencia Multifactorial , TranscriptomaRESUMEN
Horizontal pleiotropy, where one variant has independent effects on multiple traits, is important for our understanding of the genetic architecture of human phenotypes. We develop a method to quantify horizontal pleiotropy using genome-wide association summary statistics and apply it to 372 heritable phenotypes measured in 361,194 UK Biobank individuals. Horizontal pleiotropy is pervasive throughout the human genome, prominent among highly polygenic phenotypes, and enriched in active regulatory regions. Our results highlight the central role horizontal pleiotropy plays in the genetic architecture of human phenotypes. The HOrizontal Pleiotropy Score (HOPS) method is available on Github at https://github.com/rondolab/HOPS .
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Pleiotropía Genética , Genoma Humano , Genómica/métodos , Herencia Multifactorial , Variación Genética , Estudio de Asociación del Genoma Completo , HumanosRESUMEN
Understanding the role of rare variants is important in elucidating the genetic basis of human disease. Negative selection can cause rare variants to have larger per-allele effect sizes than common variants. Here, we develop a method to estimate the minor allele frequency (MAF) dependence of SNP effect sizes. We use a model in which per-allele effect sizes have variance proportional to [p(1 - p)]α, where p is the MAF and negative values of α imply larger effect sizes for rare variants. We estimate α for 25 UK Biobank diseases and complex traits. All traits produce negative α estimates, with best-fit mean of -0.38 (s.e. 0.02) across traits. Despite larger rare variant effect sizes, rare variants (MAF < 1%) explain less than 10% of total SNP-heritability for most traits analyzed. Using evolutionary modeling and forward simulations, we validate the α model of MAF-dependent trait effects and assess plausible values of relevant evolutionary parameters.
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Bancos de Muestras Biológicas , Estudio de Asociación del Genoma Completo/métodos , Polimorfismo de Nucleótido Simple , Carácter Cuantitativo Heredable , Selección Genética , Algoritmos , Alelos , Frecuencia de los Genes , Genotipo , Humanos , Modelos Genéticos , Reino UnidoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Studies have shown strong positive associations between serum urate (SU) levels and chronic kidney disease (CKD) risk; however, whether the relation is causal remains uncertain. We evaluate whether genetic data are consistent with a causal impact of SU level on the risk of CKD and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used Mendelian randomization (MR) methods to evaluate the presence of a causal effect. We used aggregated genome-wide association data (N = 110,347 for SU, N = 69,374 for gout, N = 133,413 for eGFR, N = 117,165 for CKD), electronic-medical-record-linked UK Biobank data (N = 335,212), and population-based cohorts (N = 13,425), all in individuals of European ancestry, for SU levels and CKD. Our MR analysis showed that SU has a causal effect on neither eGFR level nor CKD risk across all MR analyses (all P > 0.05). These null associations contrasted with our epidemiological association findings from the 4 population-based cohorts (change in eGFR level per 1-mg/dl [59.48 µmol/l] increase in SU: -1.99 ml/min/1.73 m2; 95% CI -2.86 to -1.11; P = 8.08 × 10(-6); odds ratio [OR] for CKD: 1.48; 95% CI 1.32 to 1.65; P = 1.52 × 10(-11)). In contrast, the same MR approaches showed that SU has a causal effect on the risk of gout (OR estimates ranging from 3.41 to 6.04 per 1-mg/dl increase in SU, all P < 10-3), which served as a positive control of our approach. Overall, our MR analysis had >99% power to detect a causal effect of SU level on the risk of CKD of the same magnitude as the observed epidemiological association between SU and CKD. Limitations of this study include the lifelong effect of a genetic perturbation not being the same as an acute perturbation, the inability to study non-European populations, and some sample overlap between the datasets used in the study. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence from our series of causal inference approaches using genetics does not support a causal effect of SU level on eGFR level or CKD risk. Reducing SU levels is unlikely to reduce the risk of CKD development.
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Insuficiencia Renal Crónica/etiología , Ácido Úrico/sangre , Adulto , Factores de Edad , Femenino , Estudio de Asociación del Genoma Completo , Tasa de Filtración Glomerular/genética , Humanos , Masculino , Análisis de la Aleatorización Mendeliana , Insuficiencia Renal Crónica/sangre , Insuficiencia Renal Crónica/genética , Factores Sexuales , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
While sequence-based genetic tests have long been available for specific loci, especially for Mendelian disease, the rapidly falling costs of genome-wide genotyping arrays, whole-exome sequencing, and whole-genome sequencing are moving us toward a future where full genomic information might inform the prognosis and treatment of a variety of diseases, including complex disease. Similarly, the availability of large populations with full genomic information has enabled new insights about the etiology and genetic architecture of complex disease. Insights from the latest generation of genomic studies suggest that our categorization of diseases as complex may conceal a wide spectrum of genetic architectures and causal mechanisms that ranges from Mendelian forms of complex disease to complex regulatory structures underlying Mendelian disease. Here, we review these insights, along with advances in the prediction of disease risk and outcomes from full genomic information.
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Enfermedades Genéticas Congénitas/genética , Enfermedades Genéticas Congénitas/complicaciones , Predisposición Genética a la Enfermedad , Estudio de Asociación del Genoma Completo , Humanos , Secuenciación del ExomaRESUMEN
PURPOSE: Over 150,000 variants have been reported to cause Mendelian disease in the medical literature. It is still difficult to leverage this knowledge base in clinical practice, as many reports lack strong statistical evidence or may include false associations. Clinical laboratories assess whether these variants (along with newly observed variants that are adjacent to these published ones) underlie clinical disorders. METHODS: We investigated whether citation data-including journal impact factor and the number of cited variants (NCV) in each gene with published disease associations-can be used to improve variant assessment. RESULTS: Surprisingly, we found that impact factor is not predictive of pathogenicity, but the NCV score for each gene can provide statistical support for prediction of pathogenicity. When this gene-level citation metric is combined with variant-level evolutionary conservation and structural features, classification accuracy reaches 89.5%. Further, variants identified in clinical exome sequencing cases have higher NCVs than do simulated rare variants from the Exome Aggregation Consortium database within the same set of genes and functional consequences (P < 2.22 × 10-16). CONCLUSION: Aggregate citation data can complement existing variant-based predictive algorithms, and can boost their performance without the need to access and review large numbers of papers. The NCV is a slow-growing metric of scientific knowledge about each gene's association with disease.