Sustained and Universal Fertility Recuperation in Kazakhstan.

The fertility rates of Kazakhstan have reversed to levels not seen for several decades. The striking fertility increase poses questions regarding the extent to which this new development is shared across socio-demographic groups and the nature of fertility recuperation. The current study employs UNICEF Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey data and event-history modelling to analyse parity progressions to one, two, three, and four children. The results suggest a sustained fertility increase that is not merely associated with the recuperation of delayed first births, but a genuine increase across all birth orders. This pattern is evident for both main ethnicities in Kazakhstan and across educational groups. The gradual increase of higher-order births, especially among ethnic Kazakhs, indicates a reversed fertility transition and also that the previous fertility decline in the 1990s was not part of a general transition towards below-replacement fertility but rather a reflection of economic crisis after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Implementation experiences and insights from the scale-up of an HIV assisted partner notification intervention in Central Asia.

INTRODUCTION: WHO recommends assisted partner notification (APN) for people living with HIV (PLHIV). These services have not been widely scaled in Central Asia. We describe the results from an APN intervention implemented within a programme focused on PLHIV and people who inject drugs in Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan. METHODS: Routine data from index cases and their partners were analysed from equal-length periods before and after APN launch. Prior to APN index cases could recruit partners using passive referral, and under APN, had their choice of passive referral or APN (provider, contract or dual-referral). We compared the demographic characteristics of index cases and their sexual/injecting partners from the pre-APN and APN periods, described the number/proportion of HIV cases found (positivity rate) and evaluated predictors of HIV infection among partners using logistic regression. RESULTS: Under APN 2676 PLHIV served as index cases and recruited 3735 partners for testing, compared to 4418 index cases and 2240 partners during the pre-APN period. A total of 322 (8.6%) partners were rapid test positive during APN versus 161 (7.2%, p = 0.048) before APN. Women represented 38% of APN index cases (vs. 42% pre-APN), 52% of partners tested (vs. 50% pre-APN) and 56% of all PLHIV identified (vs. 63% pre-APN). Compared to the pre-APN period, the number of partners tested per index case recruited increased (0.5 to 1.4, p < 0.001) and the number of index cases needed to find one HIV-positive partner decreased significantly (27.4 to 8.3, p < 0.001) under APN. CONCLUSIONS: APN was feasibly integrated within a people who inject drugs and PLHIV-focused HIV programme, and was acceptable to high-risk populations in Central Asia. Under APN, large numbers of sexual and injecting partners of PLHIV - including women and non-marital partners - were tested while maintaining high positivity rates. Relative to the pre-APN period, APN approximately tripled the number of partners recruited per index case and reduced the number of index cases needed to find a positive partner by >3 times.

Social network methods for HIV case-finding among people who inject drugs in Tajikistan.

INTRODUCTION: HIV testing programmes have struggled to reach the most marginalized populations at risk for HIV. Social network methods such as respondent-driven sampling (RDS) and peer-based active case-finding (ACF) may be effective in overcoming barriers to reaching these populations. We compared the client characteristics, proportion testing HIV positive (yield), and number of new cases found through two RDS strategies and an ACF approach to HIV case-finding among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Tajikistan. METHODS: Routine programme data from adult PWID recruited to testing under the HIV Flagship Project in Tajikistan were analysed to compare client demographic and clinical characteristics across the three approaches. We also compared the number of previously untested clients, the number of new HIV cases found, and the yield across the case-finding strategies, and evaluated predictors of new HIV diagnosis using fixed-effects logistic regression. RESULTS: From 24 October 2016 to 30 June 2017, Flagship tested 10,300 PWID for HIV, including 2143 under RDS with unrestricted waves (RDS1, yield: 1.5%), 3517 under restricted RDS (RDS2, yield: 2.6%), and 4640 under ACF (yield: 1.5%). Clients recruited under ACF were similar in age (35.8 vs. 36.8) and gender (91% vs. 90% male) to those recruited through RDS, though ACF clients were more likely to report being a first-time tester (85.1% vs. 68.3%, p < 0.001). After controlling for age, sex, previous testing history and accounting for clustering at the site level, we found that clients tested under both RDS1 (aOR: 1.74, 95% CI: 1.04 to 2.90) and RDS2 (aOR: 1.54, 95% CI: 1.11 to 2.15) had higher odds of testing newly positive for HIV relative to clients recruited through ACF. We did not find significant differences in the odds of new HIV infection between those recruited from RDS1 versus RDS2 (aOR: 1.12, 95% CI: 0.67 to 1.86). CONCLUSIONS: RDS-based interventions resulted in higher yields and overall case-finding, especially when recruitment was restricted. However, ACF identified a higher proportion of first-time testers. To find at least 90% of PWID living with HIV in Tajikistan, it may be necessary to implement multiple case-finding approaches concurrently to maximize testing coverage.

Effective use of naloxone among people who inject drugs in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan using pharmacy- and community-based distribution approaches.

BACKGROUND: Opioid overdose (OD) is a major cause of mortality among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Central Asia, and distribution of naloxone, an opioid antagonist, can effectively prevent these deaths. However, little is known about the use and wastage of distributed naloxone ampoules. Having reliable data on wastage rates is critical for accurately calculating the health impact of naloxone distribution projects targeting PWID. METHODS: In 2011, Population Services International (PSI) launched two pilot naloxone distribution programs in Kyrgyzstan (pharmacy-based approach) and Tajikistan (community-based approach). PWID were trained on OD prevention and naloxone use. Upon returning for more ampoules, the PWID completed a brief survey on their OD experience and naloxone use. 158 respondents in Kyrgyzstan and 59 in Tajikistan completed the questionnaire. Usage and wastage rates were calculated based on responses. A four-year model wastage rate that takes into account the shelf life of naloxone for both countries was then calculated. RESULTS: 51.3% of respondents in Kyrgyzstan and 91.5% in Tajikistan reported having ever experienced an OD. 82.9% of respondents in Kyrgyzstan and all respondents in Tajikistan had ever witnessed an OD. Out of these PWID who experienced or witnessed OD, 81.5% in Kyrgyzstan and 59.3% in Tajikistan reported having been injected with naloxone, and 83.2% in Kyrgyzstan and 50.9% in Tajikistan reported injecting another individual with naloxone. Of ampoules received, 46.5% in Kyrgyzstan and 78.1% in Tajikistan were used. In both countries, 3.1% of these ampoules were wasted. The four-year model wastage rates for Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan were found to be 13.8% and 3.9% respectively. CONCLUSION: Findings indicate that a high proportion of naloxone distributed to PWID is used in actual OD incidents, with low wastage rates in both countries. Expanding these distribution models can potentially create more positive health outcomes for PWID in Central Asia.