Mapping potential conflicts between global agriculture and terrestrial conservation.

Demand for food products, often from international trade, has brought agricultural land use into direct competition with biodiversity. Where these potential conflicts occur and which consumers are responsible is poorly understood. By combining conservation priority (CP) maps with agricultural trade data, we estimate current potential conservation risk hotspots driven by 197 countries across 48 agricultural products. Globally, a third of agricultural production occurs in sites of high CP (CP > 0.75, max = 1.0). While cattle, maize, rice, and soybean pose the greatest threat to very high-CP sites, other low-conservation risk products (e.g., sugar beet, pearl millet, and sunflower) currently are less likely to be grown in sites of agriculture-conservation conflict. Our analysis suggests that a commodity can cause dissimilar conservation threats in different production regions. Accordingly, some of the conservation risks posed by different countries depend on their demand and sourcing patterns of agricultural commodities. Our spatial analyses identify potential hotspots of competition between agriculture and high-conservation value sites (i.e., 0.5° resolution, or ~367 to 3,077km2, grid cells containing both agriculture and high-biodiversity priority habitat), thereby providing additional information that could help prioritize conservation activities and safeguard biodiversity in individual countries and globally. A web-based GIS tool at https://agriculture.spatialfootprint.com/biodiversity/ systematically visualizes the results of our analyses.

Japanese urban household carbon footprints during early-stage COVID-19 pandemic were consistent with those over the past decade.

As urbanization accelerates worldwide, substantial energy and services are required to meet the demand from cities, making cities major contributors to adverse environmental consequences. To bridge the knowledge gap in the absence of fine-grained city-level climate protection measures due to data availability and accuracy, this study provides a detailed carbon emission inventory for analyzing the monthly fluctuations based on citizens' daily consumption behaviors. Here, carbon emissions embodied in approximately 500 household consumption items were calculated in 47 prefectural-level cities in Japan from 2011 to June 2021. We analyzed the results considering the regional, seasonal, demand, and emission way-specific aspects, and compared the emission before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Notably, the carbon footprints during the pandemic were consistent with the previous level despite downtrends in specific categories. This study provides an example of utilizing city-level emission data to improve household green consumption behavior as references for enriching city-level decarbonization paths.

Consumption in the G20 nations causes particulate air pollution resulting in two million premature deaths annually.

Worldwide exposure to ambient PM2.5 causes over 4 million premature deaths annually. As most of these deaths are in developing countries, without internationally coordinated efforts this polarized situation will continue. As yet, however, no studies have quantified nation-to-nation consumer responsibility for global mortality due to both primary and secondary PM2.5 particles. Here we quantify the global footprint of PM2.5-driven premature deaths for the 19 G20 nations in a position to lead such efforts. G20 consumption in 2010 was responsible for 1.983 [95% Confidence Interval: 1.685-2.285] million premature deaths, at an average age of 67, including 78.6 [71.5-84.8] thousand infant deaths, implying that the G20 lifetime consumption of about 28 [24-33] people claims one life. Our results indicate that G20 nations should take responsibility for their footprint rather than focusing solely on transboundary air pollution, as this would expand opportunities for reducing PM2.5-driven premature mortality. Given the infant mortality footprint identified, it would moreover contribute to ensuring infant lives are not unfairly left behind in countries like South Africa, which have a weak relationship with G20 nations.

Monthly direct and indirect greenhouse gases emissions from household consumption in the major Japanese cities.

Urban household consumption contributes substantially to global greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions. Urban household emissions encompass both direct and indirect emissions, with the former associated with the direct use of fossil fuels and the latter with the emissions embodied in the consumed goods and services. However, there is a lack of consistent and comprehensive datasets outlining in great detail emissions from urban household consumption. To bridge this data gap, we construct an emission inventory of urban household emissions for 52 major cities in Japan that covers around 500 emission categories. The dataset spans from January 2011 to December 2015 and contains 12,384 data records for direct emissions and 1,543,128 records for indirect emissions. Direct emission intensity is provided in g-CO2/JPY to facilitate both future studies of household emission in Japan, as well as act as a reference for the development of detailed household emission inventories in other countries.

Mapping the deforestation footprint of nations reveals growing threat to tropical forests.

Deforestation, a significant threat to biodiversity, is accelerated by global demand for commodities. Although prior literature has linked deforestation to global supply chains, here we provide a fine-scale representation of spatial patterns of deforestation associated with international trade. Using remote sensing data and a multi-region input-output model, we quantify and map the spatiotemporal changes in global deforestation footprints over 15 years (2001-2015) at a 30-m resolution. We find that, while many developed countries, China and India have obtained net forest gains domestically, they have also increased the deforestation embodied in their imports, of which tropical forests are the most threatened biome. Consumption patterns of G7 countries drive an average loss of 3.9 trees per person per year. Some of the hotspots of deforestation embodied in international trade are also biodiversity hotspots, such as in Southeast Asia, Madagascar, Liberia, Central America and the Amazonian rainforest. Our results emphasize the need to reform zero-deforestation policies through strong transnational efforts and by improving supply chain transparency, public-private engagement and financial support for the tropics.

Negligible impacts of early COVID-19 confinement on household carbon footprints in Japan.

The rapid and extensive changes in household consumption patterns during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic can serve as a natural experiment for exploring the environmental outcomes of changing human behavior. Here, we assess the carbon footprint of household consumption in Japan during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic (January-May 2020), which were characterized by moderate confinement measures. The associated lifestyle changes did not have a significant effect on the overall household carbon footprint compared with 2015-2019 levels. However, there were significant trade-offs between individual consumption categories such that the carbon footprint increased for some categories (e.g., eating at home) or declined (e.g., eating out, transportation, clothing, and entertainment) or remained relatively unchanged (e.g., housing) for others. Furthermore, carbon footprint patterns between age groups were largely consistent with 2015-2019 levels. However, changes in food-related carbon footprints were visible for all age groups since March and, in some cases, since February.

Global socio-economic losses and environmental gains from the Coronavirus pandemic.

On 3 April 2020, the Director-General of the WHO stated: "[COVID-19] is much more than a health crisis. We are all aware of the profound social and economic consequences of the pandemic (WHO, 2020)". Such consequences are the result of counter-measures such as lockdowns, and world-wide reductions in production and consumption, amplified by cascading impacts through international supply chains. Using a global multi-regional macro-economic model, we capture direct and indirect spill-over effects in terms of social and economic losses, as well as environmental effects of the pandemic. Based on information as of May 2020, we show that global consumption losses amount to 3.8$tr, triggering significant job (147 million full-time equivalent) and income (2.1$tr) losses. Global atmospheric emissions are reduced by 2.5Gt of greenhouse gases, 0.6Mt of PM2.5, and 5.1Mt of SO2 and NOx. While Asia, Europe and the USA have been the most directly impacted regions, and transport and tourism the immediately hit sectors, the indirect effects transmitted along international supply chains are being felt across the entire world economy. These ripple effects highlight the intrinsic link between socio-economic and environmental dimensions, and emphasise the challenge of addressing unsustainable global patterns. How humanity reacts to this crisis will define the post-pandemic world.

Affluent countries inflict inequitable mortality and economic loss on Asia via PM2.5 emissions.

This research sets out to quantify the mortality and economic loss in individual Asian countries caused by the PM2.5 emissions induced by the consumption of the world's five highest-consuming countries (US, China, Japan, Germany, UK). In 2010 alone, the economic impact of these five countries' consumption caused a loss of almost 45 billion US dollars due to the premature deaths of more than 1 million people in Asia, including 15 thousand children younger than 5 years old. The percentage ratio of economic loss to value-added driven by consumers via trade differed greatly among the impacted countries. For the US, the highest percentage loss was 4.1% in Laos, followed by 2.0% in Bangladesh, both markedly higher than the figures for the more developed countries, such as 0.21% for Japan and 0.18% for Korea. This reflects the inequitable value chain existing between consumer countries and impacted countries, and implies that developing countries are obtaining value-added in exchange for unintentionally increased health risks, delaying their development and potentially creating a vicious circle that hinders much-needed improvements in areas like poverty reduction and public health. This inequitable situation needs to be redressed through introduction of clean energy and other types of technological assistance to help achieve United Nations Sustainable Development Goals 7, 10 and 13. Such as move is essential if premature infant deaths are to be curtailed.

Identifying species threat hotspots from global supply chains.

Identifying hotspots of species threat has been a successful approach for setting conservation priorities. One important challenge in conservation is that, in many hotspots, export industries continue to drive overexploitation. Conservation measures must consider not just the point of impact, but also the consumer demand that ultimately drives resource use. To understand which species threat hotspots are driven by which consumers, we have developed a new approach to link a set of biodiversity footprint accounts to the hotspots of threatened species on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. The result is a map connecting consumption to spatially explicit hotspots driven by production on a global scale. Locating biodiversity threat hotspots driven by consumption of goods and services can help to connect conservationists, consumers, companies and governments in order to better target conservation actions.

Resource footprints and their ecosystem consequences.

A meaningful environmental impact analysis should go beyond the accounting of pressures from resource use and actually assess how resource demand affects ecosystems. The various currently available footprints of nations report the environmental pressures e.g. water use or pollutant emissions, driven by consumption. However, there have been limited attempts to assess the environmental consequences of these pressures. Ultimately, consequences, not pressures, should guide environmental policymaking. The newly released LC-Impact method demonstrates progress on the path to providing this missing link. Here we present "ecosystem impact footprints" in terms of the consequences for biodiversity and assess the differences in impact footprint results from MRIO-based pressure footprints. The new perspective reveals major changes in the relative contribution of nations to global footprints. Wealthy countries have high pressure footprints in lower-income countries but their impact footprints often have their origin in higher-income countries. This shift in perspective provides a different insight on where to focus policy responses to preserve biodiversity.

Mapping the Carbon Footprint of Nations.

Life cycle thinking asks companies and consumers to take responsibility for emissions along their entire supply chain. As the world economy becomes more complex it is increasingly difficult to connect consumers and other downstream users to the origins of their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Given the important role of subnational entities-cities, states, and companies-in GHG abatement efforts, it would be advantageous to better link downstream users to facilities and regulators who control primary emissions. We present a new spatially explicit carbon footprint method for establishing such connections. We find that for most developed countries the carbon footprint has diluted and spread: for example, since 1970 the U.S. carbon footprint has grown 23% territorially, and 38% in consumption-based terms, but nearly 200% in spatial extent (i.e., the minimum area needed to contain 90% of emissions). The rapidly growing carbon footprints of China and India, however, do not show such a spatial expansion of their consumption footprints in spite of their increasing participation in the world economy. In their case, urbanization concentrates domestic pollution and this offsets the increasing importance of imports.

The material footprint of nations.

Metrics on resource productivity currently used by governments suggest that some developed countries have increased the use of natural resources at a slower rate than economic growth (relative decoupling) or have even managed to use fewer resources over time (absolute decoupling). Using the material footprint (MF), a consumption-based indicator of resource use, we find the contrary: Achievements in decoupling in advanced economies are smaller than reported or even nonexistent. We present a time series analysis of the MF of 186 countries and identify material flows associated with global production and consumption networks in unprecedented specificity. By calculating raw material equivalents of international trade, we demonstrate that countries' use of nondomestic resources is, on average, about threefold larger than the physical quantity of traded goods. As wealth grows, countries tend to reduce their domestic portion of materials extraction through international trade, whereas the overall mass of material consumption generally increases. With every 10% increase in gross domestic product, the average national MF increases by 6%. Our findings call into question the sole use of current resource productivity indicators in policy making and suggest the necessity of an additional focus on consumption-based accounting for natural resource use.

The inequality footprints of nations: a novel approach to quantitative accounting of income inequality.

In this study we use economic input-output analysis to calculate the inequality footprint of nations. An inequality footprint shows the link that each country's domestic economic activity has to income distribution elsewhere in the world. To this end we use employment and household income accounts for 187 countries and an historical time series dating back to 1990. Our results show that in 2010, most developed countries had an inequality footprint that was higher than their within-country inequality, meaning that in order to support domestic lifestyles, these countries source imports from more unequal economies. Amongst exceptions are the United States and United Kingdom, which placed them on a par with many developing countries. Russia has a high within-country inequality nevertheless it has the lowest inequality footprint in the world, which is because of its trade connections with the Commonwealth of Independent States and Europe. Our findings show that the commodities that are inequality-intensive, such as electronic components, chemicals, fertilizers, minerals, and agricultural products often originate in developing countries characterized by high levels of inequality. Consumption of these commodities may implicate within-country inequality in both developing and developed countries.

Mapping the structure of the world economy.

We have developed a new series of environmentally extended multi-region input-output (MRIO) tables with applications in carbon, water, and ecological footprinting, and Life-Cycle Assessment, as well as trend and key driver analyses. Such applications have recently been at the forefront of global policy debates, such as about assigning responsibility for emissions embodied in internationally traded products. The new time series was constructed using advanced parallelized supercomputing resources, and significantly advances the previous state of art because of four innovations. First, it is available as a continuous 20-year time series of MRIO tables. Second, it distinguishes 187 individual countries comprising more than 15,000 industry sectors, and hence offers unsurpassed detail. Third, it provides information just 1-3 years delayed therefore significantly improving timeliness. Fourth, it presents MRIO elements with accompanying standard deviations in order to allow users to understand the reliability of data. These advances will lead to material improvements in the capability of applications that rely on input-output tables. The timeliness of information means that analyses are more relevant to current policy questions. The continuity of the time series enables the robust identification of key trends and drivers of global environmental change. The high country and sector detail drastically improves the resolution of Life-Cycle Assessments. Finally, the availability of information on uncertainty allows policy-makers to quantitatively judge the level of confidence that can be placed in the results of analyses.

Frameworks for comparing emissions associated with production, consumption, and international trade.

While the problem of climate change is being perceived as increasingly urgent, decision-makers struggle to agree on the distribution of responsibility across countries. In particular, representatives from countries hosting emissions-intensive exporting industries have argued that the importers of emissions-intensive goods should bear the responsibility, and ensuing penalties. Indeed, international trade and carbon leakage appear to play an increasingly important role in the carbon emissions debate. However, definitions of quantities describing the embodiment of carbon emissions in internationally traded products, and their measurement, have to be sufficiently robust before being able to underpin global policy. In this paper we critically examine a number of emissions accounting concepts, examine whether the ensuing carbon balances are compatible with monetary trade balances, discuss their different interpretations, and highlight implications for policy. In particular, we compare the emissions embodied in bilateral trade (EEBT) method which considers total trade flows with domestic emission intensities, with the multi-regional input-output (MRIO) method which considers trade only into final consumption with global emission intensities. If consumption-based emissions of different countries were to be compared, we would suggest an MRIO approach because of the global emissions coverage inherent in this method. If trade-adjusted emission inventories were to be compared, we would suggest an EEBT approach due to the consistency with a monetary trade balance.