Connectivity-based risk ranking of infectious salmon anaemia virus (ISAv) outbreaks for targeted surveillance planning in Canada and the USA.

Infectious salmon anaemia (ISA) can be a serious viral disease of farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). A tool to rank susceptible farms based on the risk of ISA virus (ISAv) infection spread from infectious farms after initial incursion or re-occurrence in an endemic area, can help guide monitoring and surveillance activities. Such a tool could also support the response strategy to contain virus spread, given available resources. We developed a tool to rank ISAv infection risks using seaway distance and hydrodynamic information separately and combined. The models were validated using 2002-2004 ISAv outbreak data for 30 farms (24 in New Brunswick, Canada and 6 in Maine, United States). Time sequence of infection spread was determined from the outbreak data that included monthly infection status of the cages on these farms. The first infected farm was considered as the index site for potential spread of ISAv to all other farms. To assess the risk of ISAv spreading to susceptible farms, the second and subsequent infected farms were identified using the farm status in the given time period and all infected farms from the previous time periods. Using the three models (hydrodynamic only, seaway-distance, and combined hydrodynamic-seaway-distance based models), we ranked susceptible farms within each time interval by adding the transmission risks from surrounding infected farms and sorting them from highest to lowest. To explore the potential efficiency of targeted sampling, we converted rankings to percentiles and assessed the model's predictive performance by comparing farms identified as high risk based on the rank with those that were infected during the next time interval as observed in the outbreak data. The overall predictive ability of the models was compared using area under the ROC curve (AUC). Farms that become infected in the next period were always within the top 65% of the rank predicted by our models. The overall predictive ability of the combined (hydrodynamic-seaway-distance based model) model (AUC = 0.833) was similar to the model that only used seaway distance (AUC = 0.827). Such models can aid in effective surveillance planning by balancing coverage (number of farms included in surveillance) against the desired level of confidence of including all farms that become infected in the next time period. Our results suggest that 100% of the farms that become infected in the next time period could be targeted in a surveillance program, although at a significant cost of including many false positives.

Assessment of the safety of aquatic animal commodities for international trade: the OIE Aquatic Animal Health code.

Trading of aquatic animals and aquatic animal products has become increasingly globalized during the last couple of decades. This commodity trade has increased the risk for the spread of aquatic animal pathogens. The World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) is recognized as the international standard-setting organization for measures relating to international trade in animals and animal products. In this role, OIE has developed the Aquatic Animal Health Code, which provides health measures to be used by competent authorities of importing and exporting countries to avoid the transfer of agents pathogenic for animals or humans, whilst avoiding unjustified sanitary barriers. An OIE ad hoc group developed criteria for assessing the safety of aquatic animals or aquatic animal products for any purpose from a country, zone or compartment not declared free from a given disease 'X'. The criteria were based on the absence of the pathogenic agent in the traded commodity or inactivation of the pathogenic agent by the commercial processing used to produce the commodity. The group also developed criteria to assess the safety of aquatic animals or aquatic animal products for retail trade for human consumption from potentially infected areas. Such commodities were assessed considering the form and presentation of the product, the expected volume of waste tissues generated by the consumer and the likely presence of viable pathogenic agent in the waste. The ad hoc group applied the criteria to commodities listed in the individual disease chapters of the Aquatic Animal Health Code (2008 edition). Revised lists of commodities for which no additional measures should be required by the importing countries regardless of the status for disease X of the exporting country were developed and adopted by the OIE World Assembly of Delegates in May 2011. The rationale of the criteria and their application will be explained and demonstrated using examples.

Combining surveillance and expert evidence of viral hemorrhagic septicemia freedom: a decision science approach.

The ability to combine evidence streams to establish disease freedom or prioritize surveillance is important for the evaluation of emerging diseases, such as viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSV) IVb in freshwater systems of the United States and Canada. Waterways provide a relatively unconstrained pathway for the spread of VHSV; and structured surveillance for emerging disease in open systems has many challenges. We introduce a decision framework for estimating VHSV infection probability that draws from multiple evidence streams and addresses challenges associated with the assessment of emerging disease. Using this approach, historical and risk-based evidence, whether empirical or expert-derived, supplement surveillance data to estimate disease probability. Surveillance-based estimates of VHSV prevalence were described using beta distributions. Subjective likelihood ratios (LRs), representing contextual risk, were elicited by asking experts to estimate the predicted occurrence of risk factors among VHSV-affected vs. VHSV-unaffected watersheds. We used the odds form of Bayes' theorem to aggregate expert and surveillance evidence to predict the risk-adjusted posterior probability of VHSV-infection for given watersheds. We also used LRs representing contextual risk to quantify the time value of past surveillance data. This evidence aggregation model predicts disease probability from the combined assessment of multiple sources of information. The method also provides a flexible framework for iterative revision of disease freedom status as knowledge and data evolve.

Canine heartworm testing in Canada: are we being effective?

Mass testing of dogs in Canada for the presence of Dirofilaria immitis has been ongoing since 1977. Since that time, there have also been changes in the diagnostic tests available to detect the presence of heartworm and changes in the therapy for heartworm, which necessitate a reevaluation of heartworm screening as currently practiced in Canada. The principles of evidence-based medicine were used to determine the prevalence of heartworm infection in various dog populations, and the effectiveness of screening these populations. The annual surveys of heartworm testing have shown that Canada is a low prevalence area (0.16%), with most of the test-positive dogs located in southern Ontario (0.19%), southern Manitoba (0.18%), southern Quebec (0.09%), and the southern Okanagan Valley (0.04%). Foci of higher prevalence are found within these 4 main geographic areas. Furthermore, the prevalence of heartworm infection is higher in the population of dogs not on preventative medication (0.62%), when compared to the population of dogs on preventative medication (0.04%). The evidence indicates that a heartworm diagnostic test applied to an asymptomatic dog on preventative medication contributes little information regarding the heartworm infection status of that dog. However, testing of a dog characterized as being high risk will provide clinically useful information. Recommendations regarding the testing of dogs for heartworm in Canada are derived on the basis of available evidence.