Enhancing maritime transportation security: A data-driven Bayesian network analysis of terrorist attack risks.

Maritime terrorist accidents have a significant low-frequency-high-consequence feature and, thus, require new research to address the associated inherent uncertainty and the scarce literature in the field. This article aims to develop a novel method for maritime security risk analysis. It employs real accident data from maritime terrorist attacks over the past two decades to train a data-driven Bayesian network (DDBN) model. The findings help pinpoint key contributing factors, scrutinize their interdependencies, ascertain the probability of different terrorist scenarios, and describe their impact on different manifestations of maritime terrorism. The established DDBN model undergoes a thorough verification and validation process employing various techniques, such as sensitivity, metrics, and comparative analyses. Additionally, it is tested against recent real-world cases to demonstrate its effectiveness in both retrospective and prospective risk propagation, encompassing both diagnostic and predictive capabilities. These findings provide valuable insights for the various stakeholders, including companies and government bodies, fostering comprehension of maritime terrorism and potentially fortifying preventive measures and emergency management.

Maritime cybersecurity: are onboard systems ready?

Recent maritime cybersecurity accidents reveal that shipping is facing increased exposure to cyber threats, especially due to the fast-growing digitalisation of the sector, leaving vessels and their onboard systems vulnerable to cyberattacks. This research aims at evaluating the relationship among the critical dimensions influencing cybersecurity performance in the maritime industry. To achieve this, six critical dimensions related to cybersecurity preparedness are first identified through literature review, namely 'regulations', 'company procedures' from a managerial perspective and 'shipboard systems readiness', 'training and awareness', 'human factor' and 'compliance monitoring' at an operation level. A Likert-scale questionnaire is designed and used to collect empirical data from 133 seafarers and shore-based staff. Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) is applied to examine the causal relationships between the six dimensions and shipboard cybersecurity performance. The results show that 'regulations' positively influence shipping companies' cybersecurity-related 'procedures', which in turn positively affects 'shipboard systems readiness', 'training and awareness', and 'monitoring'. Further, 'training and awareness' positively influences the cybersecurity performance of ships. The results have profound implications for the shipping industry on how to strengthen their cyber practices in order to improve their cybersecurity performance. Recommendations for future academic research related to maritime cybersecurity are also provided.

Cost-effectiveness of measures to reduce ship strikes: A case study on protecting the Mediterranean fin whale.

Collisions between ships and whales can pose a significant threat to the survival of some whale populations. The lack of robust and holistic assessments of the consequences of mitigation solutions often leads to poor compliance from the shipping industry. To overcome this, several papers support a regulatory approach to the management of whale-ship collisions through the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the UN agency responsible for maritime affairs. According to the IMO risk assessment approach, in order to compare the costs of implementing mitigation solutions and their benefits, there is a need for a well-defined risk evaluation criterion. To define such a criterion for whales, we have used an ecological-economic framework based on existence values and conservation objectives. As an illustration, we have applied our framework to the Mediterranean fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus) population and determined the cost of averting a whale fatality as a proxy for the societal benefits. More precisely, we have estimated the 'Cost of averting a Mediterranean fin whale fatality' of 562,462 (in 2017 US dollars); this corresponds to 637,790 USD when converted to 2021 US dollars. The societal benefits of solutions that reduce the risk to whales could therefore be weighed against the costs of shipping companies to implement such measures. This could lead to assessments that are more transparent and the introduction of mandatory measures to reduce ship strikes.

Reducing whale-ship collisions by better estimating damages to ships.

Collisions between ships and whales raise environmental, safety, and economic concerns. The management of whale-ship collisions, however, lacks a holistic approach, unlike the management of other types of wildlife-vehicle collisions, which have been more standardized for several years now. In particular, safety and economic factors are routinely omitted in the assessment of proposed mitigation solutions to ship strikes, possibly leading to under-compliance and a lack of acceptance from the stakeholders. In this study, we estimate the probability of ship damage due to a whale-ship collision. While the probability of damage is low, the costs could be important, suggesting that property damages are significant enough to be taken into consideration when assessing solutions. Lessons learned from other types of wildlife-vehicle collisions suggest that the whale-ship collision should be managed as wildlife-aircraft collisions. For several years, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) manages collisions between aircrafts and wildlife at the international level. We advocate that its United Nations counterpart, namely the International Maritime Organization (IMO), get more involved in the whale-ship collision management. Further research is needed to more precisely quantify the costs incurred to ships from damages caused by whale-ship collisions.

An empirical analysis of IOPCF oil spill cost data.

This paper reports on recent analysis of oil spill cost data assembled by the International Oil Pollution Compensation Fund (IOPCF). Regression analyses of clean-up costs and total costs have been carried out, after taking care to convert to current prices and remove outliers. In the first place, the results of this analysis have been useful in the context of the ongoing discussion within the International Maritime Organization (IMO) on environmental risk evaluation criteria. Furthermore, these results can be useful in estimating the benefit of regulations that deal with the protection of marine environment and oil pollution prevention.