Integrated model for COVID-19 diagnosis based on computed tomography artificial intelligence, and clinical features: a multicenter cohort study.

Background: We developed and validated a machine learning diagnostic model for the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) disease, integrating artificial-intelligence-based computed tomography (CT) imaging and clinical features. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study in 11 Japanese tertiary care facilities that treated COVID-19 patients. Participants were tested using both real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and chest CTs between January 1 and May 30, 2020. We chronologically split the dataset in each hospital into training and test sets, containing patients in a 7:3 ratio. A Light Gradient Boosting Machine model was used for the analysis. Results: A total of 703 patients were included, and two models-the full model and the A-blood model-were developed for their diagnosis. The A-blood model included eight variables (the Ali-M3 confidence, along with seven clinical features of blood counts and biochemistry markers). The areas under the receiver-operator curve of both models [0.91, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.86 to 0.95 for the full model and 0.90, 95% CI: 0.86 to 0.94 for the A-blood model] were better than that of the Ali-M3 confidence (0.78, 95% CI: 0.71 to 0.83) in the test set. Conclusions: The A-blood model, a COVID-19 diagnostic model developed in this study, combines machine-learning and CT evaluation with blood test data and performs better than the Ali-M3 framework existing for this purpose. This would significantly aid physicians in making a quicker diagnosis of COVID-19.

Development and external validation of a deep learning-based computed tomography classification system for COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to develop and externally validate a novel machine learning model that can classify CT image findings as positive or negative for SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). METHODS: We used 2,928 images from a wide variety of case-control type data sources for the development and internal validation of the machine learning model. A total of 633 COVID-19 cases and 2,295 non-COVID-19 cases were included in the study. We randomly divided cases into training and tuning sets at a ratio of 8:2. For external validation, we used 893 images from 740 consecutive patients at 11 acute care hospitals suspected of having COVID-19 at the time of diagnosis. The dataset included 343 COVID-19 patients. The reference standard was RT-PCR. RESULTS: In external validation, the sensitivity and specificity of the model were 0.869 and 0.432, at the low-level cutoff, 0.724 and 0.721, at the high-level cutoff. Area under the receiver operating characteristic was 0.76. CONCLUSIONS: Our machine learning model exhibited a high sensitivity in external validation datasets and may assist physicians to rule out COVID-19 diagnosis in a timely manner at emergency departments. Further studies are warranted to improve model specificity.

Accuracy of deep learning-based computed tomography diagnostic system for COVID-19: A consecutive sampling external validation cohort study.

Ali-M3, an artificial intelligence program, analyzes chest computed tomography (CT) and detects the likelihood of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) based on scores ranging from 0 to 1. However, Ali-M3 has not been externally validated. Our aim was to evaluate the accuracy of Ali-M3 for detecting COVID-19 and discuss its clinical value. We evaluated the external validity of Ali-M3 using sequential Japanese sampling data. In this retrospective cohort study, COVID-19 infection probabilities for 617 symptomatic patients were determined using Ali-M3. In 11 Japanese tertiary care facilities, these patients underwent reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing. They also underwent chest CT to confirm a diagnosis of COVID-19. Of the 617 patients, 289 (46.8%) were RT-PCR-positive. The area under the curve (AUC) of Ali-M3 for predicting a COVID-19 diagnosis was 0.797 (95% confidence interval: 0.762‒0.833) and the goodness-of-fit was P = 0.156. With a cut-off probability of a diagnosis of COVID-19 by Ali-M3 set at 0.5, the sensitivity and specificity were 80.6% and 68.3%, respectively. A cut-off of 0.2 yielded a sensitivity and specificity of 89.2% and 43.2%, respectively. Among the 223 patients who required oxygen, the AUC was 0.825. Sensitivity at a cut-off of 0.5% and 0.2% was 88.7% and 97.9%, respectively. Although the sensitivity was lower when the days from symptom onset were fewer, the sensitivity increased for both cut-off values after 5 days. We evaluated Ali-M3 using external validation with symptomatic patient data from Japanese tertiary care facilities. As Ali-M3 showed sufficient sensitivity performance, despite a lower specificity performance, Ali-M3 could be useful in excluding a diagnosis of COVID-19.

Laxative use and mortality in patients on haemodialysis: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Patients on haemodialysis (HD) are often constipated. This study aimed to assess the relationship between constipation and mortality in such patients. In this study, constipation was defined as receiving prescription laxatives, based on the investigation results of "a need to take laxatives is the most common conception of constipation" reported by the World Gastroenterology Organization Global Guidelines. METHODS: This cohort study included 12,217 adult patients on HD enrolled in the Japan-Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns study phases 1 to 5 (1998 to 2015). The participants were grouped into two based on whether they were prescribed laxatives during enrolment at baseline. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality in 3 years, and the secondary endpoint was cause-specific death. Missing values were imputed using multiple imputation methods. All estimations were calculated using a Cox proportional hazards model with an inverse probability of treatment weighting using the propensity score. RESULTS: Laxatives were prescribed in 30.5% of the patients, and there were 1240 all-cause deaths. There was a significant association between laxative prescription and all-cause mortality [adjusted hazard ratio (AHR), 1.12; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03 to 1.21]. Because the Kaplan-Meier curves of the two groups crossed over, we examined 8345 patients observed for more than 1.5 years. Laxative prescription was significantly associated with all-cause mortality (AHR, 1.35; 95% CI: 1.17 to 1.55). The AHR of infectious death was 1.62 (95% CI: 1.14 to 2.29), and that of cancerous death was 1.60 (95% CI: 1.08 to 2.36). However, cardiovascular death did not show a significant inter-group difference. CONCLUSIONS: Constipation requiring use of laxatives was associated with an increased risk of death in patients on HD. It is important to prevent patients receiving HD from developing constipation and to reduce the number of patients requiring laxatives.