Timing of ice retreat alters seabird abundances and distributions in the southeast Bering Sea.

Timing of spring sea-ice retreat shapes the southeast Bering Sea food web. We compared summer seabird densities and average bathymetry depth distributions between years with early (typically warm) and late (typically cold) ice retreat. Averaged over all seabird species, densities in early-ice-retreat-years were 10.1% (95% CI: 1.1-47.9%) of that in late-ice-retreat-years. In early-ice-retreat-years, surface-foraging species had increased numbers over the middle shelf (50-150 m) and reduced numbers over the shelf slope (200-500 m). Pursuit-diving seabirds showed a less clear trend. Euphausiids and the copepod Calanus marshallae/glacialis were 2.4 and 18.1 times less abundant in early-ice-retreat-years, respectively, whereas age-0 walleye pollock Gadus chalcogrammus near-surface densities were 51× higher in early-ice-retreat-years. Our results suggest a mechanistic understanding of how present and future changes in sea-ice-retreat timing may affect top predators like seabirds in the southeastern Bering Sea.

Reconstructing source-sink dynamics in a population with a pelagic dispersal phase.

For many organisms, the reconstruction of source-sink dynamics is hampered by limited knowledge of the spatial assemblage of either the source or sink components or lack of information on the strength of the linkage for any source-sink pair. In the case of marine species with a pelagic dispersal phase, these problems may be mitigated through the use of particle drift simulations based on an ocean circulation model. However, when simulated particle trajectories do not intersect sampling sites, the corroboration of model drift simulations with field data is hampered. Here, we apply a new statistical approach for reconstructing source-sink dynamics that overcomes the aforementioned problems. Our research is motivated by the need for understanding observed changes in jellyfish distributions in the eastern Bering Sea since 1990. By contrasting the source-sink dynamics reconstructed with data from the pre-1990 period with that from the post-1990 period, it appears that changes in jellyfish distribution resulted from the combined effects of higher jellyfish productivity and longer dispersal of jellyfish resulting from a shift in the ocean circulation starting in 1991. A sensitivity analysis suggests that the source-sink reconstruction is robust to typical systematic and random errors in the ocean circulation model driving the particle drift simulations. The jellyfish analysis illustrates that new insights can be gained by studying structural changes in source-sink dynamics. The proposed approach is applicable for the spatial source-sink reconstruction of other species and even abiotic processes, such as sediment transport.

Foraging responses of black-legged kittiwakes to prolonged food-shortages around colonies on the Bering Sea shelf.

We hypothesized that changes in southeastern Bering Sea foraging conditions for black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) have caused shifts in habitat use with direct implications for population trends. To test this, we compared at-sea distribution, breeding performance, and nutritional stress of kittiwakes in three years (2008-2010) at two sites in the Pribilof Islands, where the population has either declined (St. Paul) or remained stable (St. George). Foraging conditions were assessed from changes in (1) bird diets, (2) the biomass and distribution of juvenile pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in 2008 and 2009, and (3) eddy kinetic energy (EKE; considered to be a proxy for oceanic prey availability). In years when biomass of juvenile pollock was low and patchily distributed in shelf regions, kittiwake diets included little or no neritic prey and a much higher occurrence of oceanic prey (e.g. myctophids). Birds from both islands foraged on the nearby shelves, or made substantially longer-distance trips overnight to the basin. Here, feeding was more nocturnal and crepuscular than on the shelf, and often occurred near anticyclonic, or inside cyclonic eddies. As expected from colony location, birds from St. Paul used neritic waters more frequently, whereas birds from St. George typically foraged in oceanic waters. Despite these distinctive foraging patterns, there were no significant differences between colonies in chick feeding rates or fledging success. High EKE in 2010 coincided with a 63% increase in use of the basin by birds from St. Paul compared with 2008 when EKE was low. Nonetheless, adult nutritional stress, which was relatively high across years at both colonies, peaked in birds from St. Paul in 2010. Diminishing food resources in nearby shelf habitats may have contributed to kittiwake population declines at St Paul, possibly driven by increased adult mortality or breeding desertion due to high foraging effort and nutritional stress.