Corrigendum: Referent data for investigations of upper limb accelerometry: harmonized data from three cohorts of typically-developing children.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fped.2024.1361757.].

Estimating potential palliative care needs for residential aged care: A population-based retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Population-based data on the required needs for palliative care in residential aged care have been highlighted as a key information gap. This study aimed to provide a comprehensive estimate of palliative care needs among Australia's residential aged care population using a validated algorithm based on causes of death. METHODS: A population-based retrospective cohort study was conducted using data from the Registry of Senior Australians of non-Indigenous residents of residential aged care services in New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia aged older than 65 years, who died between 2016 and 2017 (n = 71,677). An internationally validated algorithm was used to estimate and characterise potential palliative care needs based on causes of death. This estimate was compared to palliative care needs identified from funding-based care needs assessment data. RESULTS: Ninety two per cent (n = 65,949) were estimated to have had potential palliative care needs prior to their death. Of these, 19% (n = 12,467) were assigned an end-of-life trajectory related to cancer, 61% (n = 40,511) to organ failure and 20% (n = 12,971) to frailty and dementia. By comparison, only 6% (n = 4430) of residents were assessed as needing palliative care by the funding-based care needs assessment. CONCLUSIONS: Over 90% of individuals dying in residential aged care may have benefited from a palliative approach to care. This need is substantially underestimated by the funding-based care needs assessment, which utilises a narrow definition of palliative care when death is imminent. There is a clear imperative to distinguish between palliative and end-of-life care needs within residential aged care to ensure appropriate and equitable access to palliative care.

Quantifying the effects of sleep on sensor-derived variables from upper limb accelerometry in people with and without upper limb impairment.

BACKGROUND: Despite the promise of wearable sensors for both rehabilitation research and clinical care, these technologies pose significant burden on data collectors and analysts. Investigations of factors that may influence the wearable sensor data processing pipeline are needed to support continued use of these technologies in rehabilitation research and integration into clinical care settings. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of one such factor, sleep, on sensor-derived variables from upper limb accelerometry in people with and without upper limb impairment and across a two-day wearing period. METHODS: This was a secondary analysis of data collected during a prospective, longitudinal cohort study (n = 127 individuals, 62 with upper limb impairment and 65 without). Participants wore a wearable sensor on each wrist for 48 h. Five upper limb sensor variables were calculated over the full wear period (sleep included) and with sleep time removed (sleep excluded): preferred time, non-preferred time, use ratio, non-preferred magnitude and its standard deviation. Linear mixed effects regression was used to quantify the effect of sleep on each sensor variable and determine if the effect differed between people with and without upper limb impairment and across a two-day wearing period. RESULTS: There were significant differences between sleep included and excluded for the variables preferred time (p < 0.001), non-preferred time (p < 0.001), and non-preferred magnitude standard deviation (p = 0.001). The effect of sleep was significantly different between people with and without upper limb impairment for one variable, non-preferred magnitude (p = 0.02). The effect of sleep was not substantially different across wearing days for any of the variables. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the effects of sleep on sensor-derived variables of upper limb accelerometry are small, similar between people with and without upper limb impairment and across a two-day wearing period, and can likely be ignored in most contexts. Ignoring the effect of sleep would simplify the data processing pipeline, facilitating the use of wearable sensors in both research and clinical practice.

National surveillance using a clinical quality indicator for prolonged antipsychotic use among older Australians with dementia who access aged care services.

OBJECTIVES: Dementia guidelines recommend antipsychotics are only used for behavioral and psychological symptoms when non-drug interventions fail, and to regularly review use. Population-level clinical quality indicators (CQIs) for dementia care in permanent residential aged care (PRAC) typically monitor prevalence of antipsychotic use but not prolonged use. This study aimed to develop a CQI for antipsychotic use >90 days and examine trends, associated factors, and variation in CQI incidence; and examine duration of the first episode of use among individuals with dementia accessing home care packages (HCPs) or PRAC. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study, including older individuals with dementia who accessed HCPs (n = 50,257) or PRAC (n = 250,196). Trends in annual CQI incidence (2011-12 to 2015-16) and associated factors were determined using Poisson regression. Funnel plots examined geographical and facility variation. Time to antipsychotic discontinuation was estimated among new antipsychotic users accessing HCP (n = 2367) and PRAC (n = 15,597) using the cumulative incidence function. RESULTS: Between 2011-12 and 2015-16, antipsychotic use for >90 days decreased in HCP recipients from 10.7% (95% CI 10.2-11.1) to 10.1% (95% CI 9.6-10.5, adjusted incidence rate ratio (aIRR) 0.97 (95% CI 0.95-0.98)), and in PRAC residents from 24.5% (95% CI 24.2-24.7) to 21.8% (95% CI 21.5-22.0, aIRR 0.97 (95% CI 0.96-0.98)). Prior antipsychotic use (both cohorts) and being male and greater socioeconomic disadvantage (PRAC cohort) were associated with higher CQI incidence. Little geographical/facility variation was observed. Median treatment duration in HCP and PRAC was 334 (interquartile range [IQR] 108-958) and 555 (IQR 197-1239) days, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: While small decreases in antipsychotic use >90 days were observed between 2011-12 and 2015-16, findings suggest antipsychotic use among aged care recipients with dementia can be further minimized.

Referent data for investigations of upper limb accelerometry: harmonized data from three cohorts of typically-developing children.

Aim: The rise of wearable sensing technology shows promise for addressing the challenges of measuring motor behavior in pediatric populations. The current pediatric wearable sensing literature is highly variable with respect to the number of sensors used, sensor placement, wearing time, and how data extracted from the sensors are analyzed. Many studies derive conceptually similar variables via different calculation methods, making it hard to compare across studies and clinical populations. In hopes of moving the field forward, this report provides referent upper limb wearable sensor data from accelerometers on 25 variables in typically-developing children, ages 3-17 years. Methods: This is a secondary analysis of data from three pediatric cohorts of children 3-17 years of age. Participants (n = 222) in the cohorts wore bilateral wrist accelerometers for 2-4 days for a total of 622 recording days. Accelerometer data were reprocessed to compute 25 variables that quantified upper limb movement duration, intensity, symmetry, and complexity. Analyses examined the influence of hand dominance, age, gender, reliability, day-to-day stability, and the relationships between variables. Results: The majority of variables were similar on the dominant and non-dominant sides, declined slightly with age, and were not different between boys and girls. ICC values were moderate to excellent. Variation within individuals across days generally ranged from 3% to 32%. A web-based R shiny object is available for data viewing. Interpretation: With the use of wearable movement sensors increasing rapidly, these data provide key, referent information for researchers as they design studies, and analyze and interpret data from neurodevelopmental and other pediatric clinical populations. These data may be of particularly high value for pediatric rare diseases.

Hospitalisations and emergency department presentations by older individuals accessing long-term aged care in Australia.

Objective The study examined emergency department (ED) presentations, unplanned hospitalisations and potentially preventable hospitalisations in older people receiving long-term care by type of care received (i.e. permanent residential aged care or home care packages in the community), in Australia in 2019. Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted using the Registry of Senior Australians National Historical Cohort. Individuals were included if they resided in South Australia, Queensland, Victoria or New South Wales, received a home care package or permanent residential aged care in 2019 and were aged ≥65 years. The cumulative incidence of ED presentations, unplanned hospitalisations and potentially preventable hospitalisations in each of the long-term care service types were estimated during the year. Days in hospital per 1000 individuals were also calculated. Results The study included 203,278 individuals accessing permanent residential aged care (209,639 episodes) and 118,999 accessing home care packages in the community (127,893 episodes). A higher proportion of people accessing home care packages had an ED presentation (43.1% [95% confidence interval, 42.8-43.3], vs 37.8% [37.6-38.0]), unplanned hospitalisation (39.8% [39.6-40.1] vs 33.4% [33.2-33.6]) and potentially preventable hospitalisation (11.8% [11.6-12.0] vs 8.2% [8.1-8.4]) than people accessing permanent residential aged care. Individuals with home care packages had more days in hospital due to unplanned hospitalisations than those in residential care (7745 vs 3049 days/1000 individuals). Conclusions While a high proportion of older people in long-term care have ED presentations, unplanned hospitalisations and potentially preventable hospitalisations, people in the community with home care packages experience these events at a higher frequency.

National Trends in Antidepressant Use in Australian Residential Aged Care Facilities (2006-2019).

OBJECTIVES: Antipsychotics have been the focus of reforms for improving the appropriateness of psychotropic medicine use in residential aged care facilities (RACFs). Comprehensive evaluation of antidepressant use in RACFs is required to inform policy and practice initiatives targeting psychotropic medicines. This study examined national trends in antidepressant use among older people living in RACFs from 2006 to 2019. DESIGN: National repeated cross-sectional study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Individuals aged 65 to 105 years who were permanent, long-term (≥100 days) residents of Australian RACFs between January 2006 and December 2019 were included. METHODS: Annual age- and sex-adjusted antidepressant prevalence rates and defined daily doses (DDDs) supplied per 1000 resident-days from 2006 to 2019 were determined. Age- and sex-adjusted prevalence rate ratios (aRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Poisson and negative binomial regression models. RESULTS: A total of 779,659 residents of 3371 RACFs were included (786,227,380 resident-days). Overall, antidepressant use increased from 46.1% (95% CI, 45.9-46.4) in 2006 to 58.5% (95% CI, 58.3-58.8) of residents in 2019 (aRR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.02-1.02). Mirtazapine use increased from 8.4% (95% CI, 8.2-8.5) to 20.9% (95% CI, 20.7-21.1) from 2006 to 2019 (aRR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.07-1.07). Antidepressant use increased from 350.3 (95% CI, 347.6-353.1) to 506.0 (95% CI, 502.8-509.3) DDDs/1000 resident-days (aRR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.03-1.03), with mirtazapine utilization increasing by 6% annually (aRR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.06-1.06). CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: This nationwide study identified a substantial increase in antidepressant use among residents of Australian RACFs, largely driven by mirtazapine. With nearly 3 in every 5 residents treated with an antidepressant in 2019, findings highlight potential off-label use and suggest that interventions to optimize care are urgently needed.

Associations Between Coordination and Wearable Sensor Variables Vary by Recording Context but Not Assessment Type.

Motor coordination is an important driver of development and improved coordination assessments could facilitate better screening, diagnosis, and intervention for children at risk of developmental disorders. Wearable sensors could provide data that enhance the characterization of coordination and the clinical utility of that data may vary depending on how sensor variables from different recording contexts relate to coordination. We used wearable sensors at the wrists to capture upper-limb movement in 85 children aged 6-12. Sensor variables were extracted from two recording contexts. Structured recordings occurred in the lab during a unilateral throwing task. Unstructured recordings occurred during free-living activity. The objective was to determine the influence of recording context (unstructured versus structured) and assessment type (direct vs. indirect) on the association between sensor variables and coordination. The greatest associations were between six sensor variables from the structured context and the direct measure of coordination. Worse coordination scores were associated with upper-limb movements that had higher peak magnitudes, greater variance, and less smoothness. The associations were consistent across both arms, even though the structured task was unilateral. This finding suggests that wearable sensors could be paired with a simple, structured task to yield clinically informative variables that relate to motor coordination.

Control intervention design for preclinical and clinical trials: Consensus-based core recommendations from the third Stroke Recovery and Rehabilitation Roundtable.

Control comparator selection is a critical trial design issue. Preclinical and clinical investigators who are doing trials of stroke recovery and rehabilitation interventions must carefully consider the appropriateness and relevance of their chosen control comparator as the benefit of an experimental intervention is established relative to a comparator. Establishing a strong rationale for a selected comparator improves the integrity of the trial and validity of its findings. This Stroke Recovery and Rehabilitation Roundtable (SRRR) taskforce used a graph theory voting system to rank the importance and ease of addressing challenges during control comparator design. "Identifying appropriate type of control" was ranked easy to address and very important, "variability in usual care" was ranked hard to address and of low importance, and "understanding the content of the control and how it differs from the experimental intervention" was ranked very important but not easy to address. The CONtrol DeSIGN (CONSIGN) decision support tool was developed to address the identified challenges and enhance comparator selection, description, and reporting. CONSIGN is a web-based tool inclusive of seven steps that guide the user through control comparator design. The tool was refined through multiple rounds of pilot testing that included more than 130 people working in neurorehabilitation research. Four hypothetical exemplar trials, which span preclinical, mood, aphasia, and motor recovery, demonstrate how the tool can be applied in practice. Six consensus recommendations are defined that span research domains, professional disciplines, and international borders.

Control intervention design for preclinical and clinical trials: Consensus-based core recommendations from the third Stroke Recovery and Rehabilitation Roundtable.

Control comparator selection is a critical trial design issue. Preclinical and clinical investigators who are doing trials of stroke recovery and rehabilitation interventions must carefully consider the appropriateness and relevance of their chosen control comparator as the benefit of an experimental intervention is established relative to a comparator. Establishing a strong rationale for a selected comparator improves the integrity of the trial and validity of its findings. This Stroke Recovery and Rehabilitation Roundtable (SRRR) taskforce used a graph theory voting system to rank the importance and ease of addressing challenges during control comparator design. "Identifying appropriate type of control" was ranked easy to address and very important, "variability in usual care" was ranked hard to address and of low importance, and "understanding the content of the control and how it differs from the experimental intervention" was ranked very important but not easy to address. The CONtrol DeSIGN (CONSIGN) decision support tool was developed to address the identified challenges and enhance comparator selection, description, and reporting. CONSIGN is a web-based tool inclusive of seven steps that guide the user through control comparator design. The tool was refined through multiple rounds of pilot testing that included more than 130 people working in neurorehabilitation research. Four hypothetical exemplar trials, which span preclinical, mood, aphasia, and motor recovery, demonstrate how the tool can be applied in practice. Six consensus recommendations are defined that span research domains, professional disciplines, and international borders.

ICF classification of therapeutic goals for outpatient episodes of neurorehabilitation in post-stroke and Parkinson disease.

PURPOSE: To understand therapeutic priorities, a secondary data analysis on a retrospective cohort was conducted to classify rehabilitation goals according to the International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health (ICF). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Therapeutic goals from an initial outpatient physical or occupational therapy evaluation for patients post-stroke or with Parkinson disease, were classified into Level 1 of the ICF. Goals in the Activity and Participation component were further sub-classified as activity capacity or activity performance (self-report or direct) in daily life. RESULTS: 776 goals across 104 participants were classified into Level 1 of the ICF. The majority, 73% (563/776) were classified as Activity and Participation, 20% (155/776) as Body Function and 2% (17/776) as Environmental Factors. Fifty-two percent (400/776) of all goals were classified as activity capacity and 21% (163/776) as activity performance in daily life, with 21% (160/776) of goals measuring self-report activity performance in daily life and less than 1% (3/776) of goals measuring direct activity performance in daily life. CONCLUSIONS: While the majority of therapeutic goals were classified into the Activity and Participation component, less than 1% of goals measured direct activity performance in daily life. If people seek outpatient rehabilitation to improve functioning in their real-world environment, therapeutic goal setting should reflect this.

The majority of therapeutic goals for an episode of outpatient neurorehabilitation were classified into the Activity and Participation component of the International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health.However, less than 1% of therapeutic goals measured direct activity performance in daily life.If people with neurological diagnoses seek out outpatient rehabilitation to improve functioning in their real-world environment, than therapeutic goal setting should reflect this.

Clinical Quality Indicators for Monitoring Hospitalizations Among Older People with Dementia Accessing Aged Care Services.

BACKGROUND: There is a need for clinical quality indicators (CQIs) that can be applied to dementia quality registries to monitor care outcomes for people with Alzheimer's disease and other forms of dementia. OBJECTIVE: To develop tertiary and primary care-based dementia CQIs for application to clinical registries for individuals with dementia accessing aged care services and determine 1) annual trends in CQI incidence between 2011-2012 and 2015-2016, 2) associated factors, and 3) geographic and facility variation in CQI incidence. METHODS: This retrospective repeated cross-sectional study included non-Indigenous individuals aged 65-105 years who lived with dementia between July 2008-June 2016, were assessed for government-funded aged care services, and resided in New South Wales or Victoria (n = 180,675). Poisson or negative binomial regression models estimated trends in annual CQI incidence and associated factors. Funnel plots examined CQI variation. RESULTS: Between 2011-2012 and 2015-2016, CQI incidence increased for falls (11.0% to 13.9%, adjusted incidence rate ratio (aIRR) 1.05 (95% CI 1.01-1.06)) and delirium (4.7% to 6.7%, aIRR 1.09 (95% CI 1.07-1.10)), decreased for unplanned hospitalizations (28.7% to 27.9%, aIRR 0.99 (95% CI 0.98-0.99)) and remained steady for fracture (6.2% to 6.5%, aIRR 1.01 (95% CI 0.99-1.01)) and pressure injuries (0.5% to 0.4%, aIRR 0.99 (95% CI 0.96-1.02)). Being male, older, having more comorbidities and living in a major city were associated with higher CQI incidence. Considerable geographical and facility variation was observed for unplanned hospitalizations and delirium CQIs. CONCLUSIONS: The CQI results highlighted considerable morbidity. The CQIs tested should be considered for application in clinical quality registries to monitor dementia care quality.

Investigating community-based care service factors delaying residential care home admission of community dwelling older adults and cost consequence.

OBJECTIVES: To examine factors contributing to delaying care home admission; and compare the rates of care home admission and cost consequence between two government subsidised programmes, Veterans' Affairs Community Nursing (VCN) and Home Care Package (HCP). METHODS: Our national, population-based retrospective cohort study and cost analysis used existing, de-identified veterans' claims databases (2010-19) and the Registry of Senior Australians Historical Cohort (2010-17), plus aggregate programme expenditure data. This involved 21,636 VCN clients (20,980 aged 65-100 years), and an age- and sex-matched HCP cohort (N = 20,980). RESULTS: Service factors associated with lower risk of care home admission in the VCN cohort were periodic (versus continuous) service delivery (HR 0.27 [95%CI, 0.24-0.31] for ≤18 months; HR 0.89 [95%CI, 0.84-0.95] for >18 months), and majority care delivered by registered nurses (versus personal care workers) (HR 0.86 [95%CI, 0.75-0.99] for ≤18 months; HR 0.91 [95%CI, 0.85-0.98] for >18 months). In the matched cohorts, the time to care home admission for VCN clients (median 28 months, IQR 14-42) was higher than for HCP clients (14, IQR 6-27). Within 5 years of service access, 57.6% (95%CI, 56.9-58.4) of HCP clients and 26.6% (95%CI, 26.0-27.2) of VCN clients had care home admission. The estimated cost saving for VCN recipients compared to HCP recipients over 5 years for relevant government providers was over A$1 billion. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to an HCP model, individuals receiving VCN services remained at home longer, with potentially significant cost savings. This new understanding suggests timely opportunity for many countries' efforts to enhance community-based care services.

Comprehensive Assessment of the Activity Level of the ICF Using Both Capacity and Performance Measures: A Case Report.

Individuals with neurologic conditions seek physical therapy services to improve mobility in their daily lives. While clinicians commonly track activity capacity, measurement of activity performance in daily life is an emerging yet unstandardized practice within routine clinical physical therapy. The purpose of this case report is to (1) provide an example of the structure, clinical reasoning, and implementation of both activity capacity and activity performance level assessments across an episode of outpatient physical therapy and (2) to describe how objective activity performance in daily life tracking supported the physical therapy intervention and education plan. A 42-year-old woman presented to outpatient neurologic physical therapy with a rare autoimmune-mediated disorder with primary goals of independently caring for her youngest child and grandchild, walking without limitations in the home and community, participating in exercise, and returning to work due to deconditioning and dizziness. The patient participated in 12 visits across a span of 4.5 months targeting performance in daily life (steps per day), aerobic conditioning, and vestibular habituation. Activity capacity measurement served as a standardized assessment of what the patient was able to do in the clinic, and activity performance in daily life tracking via a Samsung wrist worn consumer-grade device provided a quantitative assessment of real-world daily stepping activity. Tracking of activity performance in daily life was an essential component of physical therapy management that provided an objective quantification of daily stepping activity to identify barriers and facilitators to increasing daily performance in an individual with a medical diagnosis of Susac syndrome.

Cohort profile: GRACE - a residential aged care cohort examining factors influencing antimicrobial resistance carriage.

BACKGROUND: The emergence of antimicrobial-resistant bacteria represents a considerable threat to human health, particularly for vulnerable populations such as those living in residential aged care. However, antimicrobial resistance carriage and modes of transmission remain incompletely understood. The Generating evidence on antimicrobial Resistance in the Aged Care Environment (GRACE) study was established to determine principal risk factors of antimicrobial resistance carriage and transmission in residential aged care facilities (RACFs). This article describes the cohort characteristics, national representation, and planned analyses for this study. METHODS: Between March 2019 and March 2020, 279 participants were recruited from five South Australian RACFs. The median age was 88.6 years, the median period in residence was 681 days, and 71.7% were female. A dementia diagnosis was recorded in 54.5% and more than two thirds had moderate to severe cognitive impairment (68.8%). 61% had received at least one course of antibiotics in the 12 months prior to enrolment. RESULTS: To investigate the representation of the GRACE cohort to Australians in residential aged care, its characteristics were compared to a subset of the historical cohort of the Registry of Senior Australians (ROSA). This included 142,923 individuals who were permanent residents of RACFs on June 30th, 2017. GRACE and ROSA cohorts were similar in age, sex, and duration of residential care, prevalence of health conditions, and recorded dementia diagnoses. Differences were observed in care requirements and antibiotic exposure (both higher for GRACE participants). GRACE participants had fewer hospital visits compared to the ROSA cohort, and a smaller proportion were prescribed psycholeptic medications. CONCLUSIONS: We have assembled a cohort of aged care residents that is representative of the Australian aged care population, and which provides a basis for future analyses. Metagenomic data isolated from participants and built environments will be used to determine microbiome and resistome characteristics of an individual and the facility. Individual and facility risk exposures will be aligned with metagenomic data to identify principal determinants for antimicrobial resistance carriage. Ultimately, this analysis will inform measures aimed at reducing the emergence and spread of antimicrobial resistant pathogens in this high-risk population.

3Rs implementation in veterinary vaccine batch-release testing: Current state-of-the-art and future opportunities. A webinar and workshop report.

Regulatory authorities require veterinary batch-release testing to confirm vaccine potency and safety, but these tests have traditionally relied on large numbers of laboratory animals. Advances in vaccine research and development offer increasing opportunities to replace in vivo testing, and some stakeholders have made significant progress in incorporating 3Rs elements in quality control strategies. A three-part event series entitled "3Rs Implementation in Veterinary Vaccine Batch-Release Testing: Current state-of-the-art and future opportunities" was jointly organized by the Animal-Free Safety Assessment Collaboration, HealthforAnimals, and the International Alliance of Biological Standardization. Two webinars and a workshop aimed to outline the state-of-the-art non-animal approaches for veterinary batch-release testing. The events included information on the state of the deletion of obsolete safety testing and the current initiatives implemented by European, North American, and Asian-Pacific stakeholders on 3Rs implementation and regulatory acceptance. The events contributed to a better understanding of the barriers to 3Rs implementation. Participants highlighted the need for open communication, continued collaboration between stakeholders, and international harmonization of regulatory requirements to help accelerate acceptance. Despite the challenges, the countries represented at this three-part event have shared their commitments to advancing the acceptance of alternative methods.

Predicting later categories of upper limb activity from earlier clinical assessments following stroke: an exploratory analysis.

BACKGROUND: Accelerometers allow for direct measurement of upper limb (UL) activity. Recently, multi-dimensional categories of UL performance have been formed to provide a more complete measure of UL use in daily life. Prediction of motor outcomes after stroke have tremendous clinical utility and a next step is to explore what factors might predict someone's subsequent UL performance category. PURPOSE: To explore how different machine learning techniques can be used to understand how clinical measures and participant demographics captured early after stroke are associated with the subsequent UL performance categories. METHODS: This study analyzed data from two time points from a previous cohort (n = 54). Data used was participant characteristics and clinical measures from early after stroke and a previously established category of UL performance at a later post stroke time point. Different machine learning techniques (a single decision tree, bagged trees, and random forests) were used to build predictive models with different input variables. Model performance was quantified with the explanatory power (in-sample accuracy), predictive power (out-of-bag estimate of error), and variable importance. RESULTS: A total of seven models were built, including one single decision tree, three bagged trees, and three random forests. Measures of UL impairment and capacity were the most important predictors of the subsequent UL performance category, regardless of the machine learning algorithm used. Other non-motor clinical measures emerged as key predictors, while participant demographics predictors (with the exception of age) were generally less important across the models. Models built with the bagging algorithms outperformed the single decision tree for in-sample accuracy (26-30% better classification) but had only modest cross-validation accuracy (48-55% out of bag classification). CONCLUSIONS: UL clinical measures were the most important predictors of the subsequent UL performance category in this exploratory analysis regardless of the machine learning algorithm used. Interestingly, cognitive and affective measures emerged as important predictors when the number of input variables was expanded. These results reinforce that UL performance, in vivo, is not a simple product of body functions nor the capacity for movement, instead being a complex phenomenon dependent on many physiological and psychological factors. Utilizing machine learning, this exploratory analysis is a productive step toward the prediction of UL performance. Trial registration NA.

Death by suicide among aged care recipients in Australia 2008-2017.

OBJECTIVE: To characterize the features of aged care users who died by suicide and examine the use of mental health services and psychopharmacotherapy in the year before death. DESIGN: Population-based, retrospective exploratory study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Individuals who died while accessing or waiting for permanent residential aged care (PRAC) or home care packages in Australia between 2008 and 2017. MEASUREMENTS: Linked datasets describing aged care use, date and cause of death, health care use, medication use, and state-based hospital data collections. RESULTS: Of 532,507 people who died, 354 (0.07%) died by suicide, including 81 receiving a home care package (0.17% of all home care package deaths), 129 in PRAC (0.03% of all deaths in PRAC), and 144 approved for but awaiting care (0.23% of all deaths while awaiting care). Factors associated with death by suicide compared to death by another cause were male sex, having a mental health condition, not having dementia, less frailty, and a hospitalization for self-injury in the year before death. Among those who were awaiting care, being born outside Australia, living alone, and not having a carer were associated with death by suicide. Those who died by suicide more often accessed Government-subsidized mental health services in the year before their death than those who died by another cause. CONCLUSIONS: Older men, those with diagnosed mental health conditions, those living alone and without an informal carer, and those hospitalized for self-injury are key targets for suicide prevention efforts.