Effects of the discontinuation of antihypertensive treatment on neuropsychiatric symptoms and quality of life in nursing home residents with dementia (DANTON): a multicentre, open-label, blinded-outcome, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Based on observational studies and randomised controlled trials (RCTs), the benefit-harm balance of antihypertensive treatment in older adults with dementia is unclear. OBJECTIVE: To assess whether discontinuing antihypertensive treatment reduces neuropsychiatric symptoms (NPSs) and maintains quality of life (QoL) in nursing home residents with dementia. DESIGN: Open-label, blinded-outcome RCT. Randomisation 1:1, stratified by nursing home organisation and baseline NPS. Trial registration: NL7365. SUBJECTS: Dutch long-term care residents with moderate-to-severe dementia and systolic blood pressure (SBP) ≤160 mmHg during antihypertensive treatment. Exclusion criteria included heart failure NYHA-class-III/IV, recent cardiovascular events/procedures or life expectancy <4 months (planned sample size n = 492). MEASUREMENTS: Co-primary outcomes NPS (Neuropsychiatric Inventory-Nursing Home [NPI-NH]) and QoL (Qualidem) at 16 weeks. RESULTS: From 9 November 2018 to 4 May 2021, 205 participants (median age 85.8 [IQR 79.6-89.5] years; 79.5% female; median SBP 134 [IQR 123-146] mmHg) were randomised to either antihypertensive treatment discontinuation (n = 101) or usual care (n = 104). Safety concerns, combined with lacking benefits, prompted the data safety and monitoring board to advice a premature cessation of randomisation. At 16-week follow-up, no significant differences were found between groups for NPI-NH (adjusted mean difference 1.6 [95% CI -2.3 to 5.6]; P = 0.42) or Qualidem (adjusted mean difference - 2.5 [95% CI -6.0 to 1.0]; P = 0.15). Serious adverse events (SAEs) occurred in 36% (discontinuation) and 24% (usual care) of the participants (adjusted hazard ratio 1.65 [95% CI 0.98-2.79]). All 32-week outcomes favoured usual care. CONCLUSION: Halfway through this study, a non-significant increased SAE risk associated with discontinuing antihypertensive treatment was observed, and an associated interim analysis showed that significant worthwhile health gain for discontinuation of antihypertensive treatment was unlikely. This unbeneficial benefit-harm balance shows that discontinuation of antihypertensive treatment in this context does not appear to be either safe or beneficial enough to be recommended in older adults with dementia.

Development of the DONOR prediction model on the risk of hypertensive complications in oocyte donation pregnancy: study protocol for a multicentre cohort study in the Netherlands.

INTRODUCTION: Oocyte donation (OD) pregnancy is accompanied by a high incidence of hypertensive complications, with serious consequences for mother and child. Optimal care management, involving early recognition, optimisation of suitable treatment options and possibly eventually also prevention, is in high demand. Prediction of patient-specific risk factors for hypertensive complications in OD can provide the basis for this. The current project aims to establish the first prediction model on the risk of hypertensive complications in OD pregnancy. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The present study is conducted within the DONation of Oocytes in Reproduction project. For this multicentre cohort study, at least 541 OD pregnancies will be recruited. Baseline characteristics and obstetric data will be collected. Additionally, one sample of maternal peripheral blood and umbilical cord blood after delivery or a saliva sample from the child will be obtained, in order to determine the number of fetal-maternal human leucocyte antigen mismatches. Following data collection, a multivariate logistic regression model will be developed for the binary outcome hypertensive complication 'yes' and 'no'. The Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool will be used as guide to minimise the risk of bias. The study will be reported in line with the 'Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis' guideline. Discrimination and calibration will be determined to assess model performance. Internal validation will be performed using the bootstrapping method. External validation will be performed with the 'DONation of Oocytes in Reproduction individual participant data' dataset. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study is approved by the Medical Ethics Committee LDD (Leiden, Den Haag, Delft), with protocol number P16.048 and general assessment registration (ABR) number NL56308.058.16. Further results will be shared through peer-reviewed journals and international conferences.

Prophylactic Radiologic Interventions for Postpartum Hemorrhage Control in Women With Placenta Accreta Spectrum Disorder: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the association between prophylactic radiologic interventions and perioperative blood loss during cesarean delivery in women with placenta accreta spectrum disorder through a systematic review and network meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES: On January 3, 2023, a literature search was conducted in PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science. We also checked ClinicalTrials.gov retrospectively. Prophylactic radiologic interventions to reduce bleeding during cesarean delivery involved preoperative placement of balloon catheters, distal (internal or common iliac arteries) or proximal (abdominal aorta), or sheaths (uterine arteries). The primary outcome was volume of blood loss; secondary outcomes were the number of red blood cell units transfused and adverse events. Studies including women who received an emergency cesarean delivery were excluded. METHODS OF STUDY SELECTION: Two authors independently screened citations for relevance, extracted data, and assessed the risk of bias of individual studies with the Cochrane Risk of Bias in Non-randomized Studies of Interventions tool. TABULTATION, INTEGRATION, AND RESULTS: From a total of 1,332 screened studies, 50 were included in the final analysis, comprising 5,962 women. These studies consisted of two randomized controlled trials and 48 observational studies. Thirty studies compared distal balloon occlusion with a control group, with a mean difference in blood loss of -406 mL (95% CI, -645 to -167). Fourteen studies compared proximal balloon occlusion with a control group, with a mean difference of -1,041 mL (95% CI, -1,371 to -710). Sensitivity analysis excluding studies with serious or critical risk of bias provided similar results. Five studies compared uterine artery embolization with a control group, all with serious or critical risk of bias; the mean difference was -936 mL (95% CI, -1,522 to -350). Reported information on adverse events was limited. CONCLUSION: Although the predominance of observational studies in the included literature warrants caution in interpreting the findings of this meta-analysis, our findings suggest that prophylactic placement of balloon catheters or sheaths before planned cesarean delivery in women with placenta accreta spectrum disorder may, in some cases, substantially reduce perioperative blood loss. Further study is required to quantify the efficacy according to various severities of placenta accreta spectrum disorder and the associated safety of these radiologic interventions. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO, CRD42022320922.

Dynamic prediction of time to wound healing at routine wound care visits.

Objective Having a wound decreases patients' quality of life and brings uncertainty, especially if the wound does not show a healing tendency. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a model to dynamically predict time to wound healing at subsequent routine wound care visits. Approach A dynamic prediction model was developed in a cohort of wounds treated by nurse practitioners between 2017-2022. Potential predictors were selected based on literature, expert opinion, and availability in the routine care setting. To assess performance for future wound care visits, the model was validated in a new cohort of wounds visited in early 2023. Reporting followed TRIPOD guidelines. Results We analyzed data from 92,098 visits, corresponding to 14,248 wounds and 7,221 patients. At external validation, discriminative performance of our developed model was comparable to internal validation (c-statistic = 0.70 [95% CI 0.69, 0.71]) and the model remained well-calibrated. Strong predictors were wound-level characteristics and indicators of the healing process so far (e.g., wound surface area). Innovation Going beyond previous prediction studies in the field, the developed model dynamically predicts the remaining time to wound healing for many wound types at subsequent wound care visits, in line with the dynamic nature of wound care. In addition, the model was externally validated and showed stable performance. Conclusion: The developed model can potentially contribute to patient satisfaction and reduce uncertainty around wound healing times when implemented in practice. When the predicted time of wound healing remains high, practitioners can consider adapting their wound management.

Ten things to remember about propensity scores.

Propensity score methods are popular to control for confounding in observational biomedical studies of risk factors or medical treatments. This paper focused on aspects of propensity score methods that often remain undiscussed, including unmeasured confounding, missing data, variable selection, statistical efficiency, estimands, the positivity assumption, and predictive performance of the propensity score model.

Longitudinal HbA1c patterns before the first treatment of diabetes in routine clinical practice: A latent class trajectory analysis.

AIMS: To examine the longitudinal heterogeneity of HbA1c preceding the initiation of diabetes treatment in clinical practice. METHODS: In this population-based study, we used HbA1c from routine laboratory and healthcare databases. Latent class trajectory analysis was used to classify individuals according to their longitudinal HbA1c patterns before first glucose-lowering drug prescription irrespective of type of diabetes. RESULTS: Among 21,556 individuals initiating diabetes treatment during 2017-2018, 20,733 (96 %) had HbA1c measured (median 4 measurements [IQR 2-7]) in the 5 years preceding treatment initiation. Four classes with distinct HbA1c trajectories were identified, with varying steepness of increase in HbA1c. The largest class (74 % of the individuals) had mean HbA1c above the 48 mmol/mol threshold 9 months before treatment initiation. Mean HbA1c was 52 mmol/mol (95 % CI 52-52) at treatment initiation. In the remaining three classes, mean HbA1c exceeded 48 mmol/mol almost 1.5 years before treatment initiation and reached 79 mmol/mol (95 % CI 78-80), 105 mmol/mol (95 % CI 104-106), and 137 mmol/mol (95 % CI 135-140) before treatment initiation. CONCLUSION: We identified four distinct longitudinal HbA1c patterns before initiation of diabetes treatment in clinical practice. All had mean HbA1c levels exceeding the diagnostic threshold many months before treatment initiation, indicating therapeutic inertia.

Testing on bacterial vaginosis in a subfertile population and time to pregnancy: a prospective cohort study.

PURPOSE: This study aimed to investigate the influence of bacterial vaginosis on time to pregnancy in subfertile couples. METHODS: Couples attending a teaching hospital in the Netherlands having an initial fertility assessment (IFA) between July 2019 and June 2022 were included in this prospective study, with follow-up of pregnancies until June 2023. Vaginal samples at IFA were analyzed on pH, qPCR BV, and 16S rRNA gene microbiome analysis of V1-V2 region. Main outcome measures were time from initial fertility assessment to ongoing pregnancy at 12 weeks and live birth, analyzed by Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression with adjustment for potential confounders. RESULTS: At IFA, 27% of 163 included participants tested positive for BV. BV status had no influence on time to ongoing pregnancy (HR 0.98, 0.60-1.61, aHR 0.97, 0.58-1.62). In persons with unexplained subfertility, positive BV status had a tendency of longer time to pregnancy. When persons had an indication for fertility treatment, positive BV status (HR 0.21, 0.05-0.88, aHR 0.19, 0.04-0.85) and microbiome community state type III and type IV had significant longer time to pregnancy. CONCLUSION: This study indicates that BV may have a potential negative impact on time to live birth pregnancy in subfertile persons with an indication for fertility treatment. This study did not find an association between BV and time to live birth pregnancy in a general group of subfertile couples or in unexplained subfertility. More research should be done in persons with unexplained subfertility and if treatment improves time to pregnancy.

Incidence rate of venous thrombosis in women switching combined oral contraceptives: a cohort study.

Background: The incidence rate of venous thrombosis (VT) in women switching combined oral contraceptives (COCs) is unknown. Objectives: We hypothesize that women switching COCs may have a similar increased incidence rate of VT as women who start COCs. Switching means starting with a new COC, which may biologically approximate starting. Methods: We conducted a cohort study with data from the Netherlands and Denmark. First, we identified starters who were defined as women who did not use COCs in the 2 years prior to the start of their first COC prescription within the study period. Switchers were a subset of COC starters who redeemed a COC formulation different from their initial COC during follow-up but not longer than 12 months after starting. We estimated incidence rate ratios (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR]) of VT with 95% CIs among COC switchers as compared with COC starters using Poisson regression adjusted for age, COC progestogen generation, and preexisting obesity. Results: In both countries, we found an increased risk of VT among switchers as compared with starters during the first 3 months of the follow-up (aIRR = 1.77; 95% CI, 1.22-2.56 in the Netherlands and aIRR = 1.50; 95% CI, 1.04-2.16 in Denmark). Conclusion: Switchers, particularly in the first 3 months after switching, may experience a renewed starter effect thereby increasing the risk of VT.

Initial data analysis for longitudinal studies to build a solid foundation for reproducible analysis.

Initial data analysis (IDA) is the part of the data pipeline that takes place between the end of data retrieval and the beginning of data analysis that addresses the research question. Systematic IDA and clear reporting of the IDA findings is an important step towards reproducible research. A general framework of IDA for observational studies includes data cleaning, data screening, and possible updates of pre-planned statistical analyses. Longitudinal studies, where participants are observed repeatedly over time, pose additional challenges, as they have special features that should be taken into account in the IDA steps before addressing the research question. We propose a systematic approach in longitudinal studies to examine data properties prior to conducting planned statistical analyses. In this paper we focus on the data screening element of IDA, assuming that the research aims are accompanied by an analysis plan, meta-data are well documented, and data cleaning has already been performed. IDA data screening comprises five types of explorations, covering the analysis of participation profiles over time, evaluation of missing data, presentation of univariate and multivariate descriptions, and the depiction of longitudinal aspects. Executing the IDA plan will result in an IDA report to inform data analysts about data properties and possible implications for the analysis plan-another element of the IDA framework. Our framework is illustrated focusing on hand grip strength outcome data from a data collection across several waves in a complex survey. We provide reproducible R code on a public repository, presenting a detailed data screening plan for the investigation of the average rate of age-associated decline of grip strength. With our checklist and reproducible R code we provide data analysts a framework to work with longitudinal data in an informed way, enhancing the reproducibility and validity of their work.

Influence of initial misdiagnosis on mortality in patients with bacteraemia: propensity score matching and propensity score weighting analyses.

BACKGROUND: The diagnostic process is a key element of medicine but it is complex and prone to errors. Infectious diseases are one of the three categories of diseases in which diagnostic errors can be most harmful to patients. In this study we aimed to estimate the effect of initial misdiagnosis of the source of infection in patients with bacteraemia on 14 day mortality using propensity score methods to adjust for confounding. METHODS: Data from a previously described longitudinal cohort of patients diagnosed with monobacterial bloodstream infection (BSI) at the Leiden University Medical Centre (LUMC) between 2013 and 2015 were used. Propensity score matching and inversed probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) were applied to correct for confounding. The average treatment effect on the treated (ATT), which in this study was the average effect of initial misdiagnosis on the misdiagnosed (AEMM), was estimated. Methodological issues that were encountered when applying propensity score methods were addressed by performing additional sensitivity analyses. Sensitivity analyses consisted of varying caliper in propensity score matching and using different truncated weights in inversed probability of treatment weighting. RESULTS: Data of 887 patients were included in the study. Propensity scores ranged between 0.015 and 0.999 and 80 patients (9.9%) had a propensity score > 0.95. In the matched analyses, 35 of the 171 misdiagnosed patients died within 14 days (20.5%), versus 10 of the 171 correctly diagnosed patients (5.8%), yielding a difference of 14.6% (7.6%; 21.6%). In the total group of patients, the observed percentage of patients with an incorrect initial diagnosis that died within 14 days was 19.8% while propensity score reweighting estimated that their probability of dying would have been 6.5%, if they had been correctly diagnosed (difference 13.3% (95% CI 6.9%;19.6%)). After adjustment for all variables that showed disbalance in the propensity score a difference of 13.7% (7.4%; 19.9%) was estimated. Sensitivity analyses yielded similar results. However, performing weighted analyses without truncation yielded unstable results. CONCLUSION: Thus, we observed a substantial increase of 14 day mortality in initially misdiagnosed patients. Furthermore, several patients received propensity scores extremely close to one and were almost sure to be initially misdiagnosed.

Hypertension and diabetes, but not leptin and adiponectin, mediate the relationship between body fat and chronic kidney disease.

PURPOSE: Obesity may promote kidney damage through hemodynamic and hormonal effects. We investigated the association between body mass index (BMI), total body fat (TBF) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) and whether hypertension, diabetes, leptin and adiponectin mediated these associations. METHODS: In this cross-sectional analysis of the Netherlands Epidemiology of Obesity study, 6671 participants (45-65 y) were included. We defined CKD as eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73 m2 and/or moderately increased albuminuria. The percentage of mediation was calculated using general structural equation modeling, adjusted for potential confounding factors age, sex, smoking, ethnicity, physical activity and Dutch healthy diet index. RESULTS: At baseline mean (SD) age was 56 (6), BMI 26.3 (4.4), 44% men, and 4% had CKD. Higher BMI and TBF were associated with 1.08 (95%CI 1.05; 1.11) and 1.05-fold (95%CI 1.02; 1.08) increased odds of CKD, respectively. As adiponectin was not associated with any of the outcomes, it was not studied further as a mediating factor. The association between BMI and CKD was 8.5% (95%CI 0.5; 16.5) mediated by diabetes and 22.3% (95%CI 7.5; 37.2) by hypertension. In addition, the association between TBF and CKD was 9.6% (95%CI -0.4; 19.6) mediated by diabetes and 22.4% (95%CI 4.2; 40.6) by hypertension. We could not confirm mediation by leptin in the association between BMI and CKD (35.6% [95%CI -18.8; 90.3]), nor between TBF and CKD (59.7% [95%CI -7.1; 126.6]). CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that the relations between BMI, TBF and CKD are in part mediated by diabetes and hypertension.

Vaginal misoprostol versus vaginal dinoprostone for cervical ripening and induction of labour: An individual participant data meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: Induction of labour (IOL) is common practice and different methods carry different effectiveness and safety profiles. OBJECTIVES: To compare the effectiveness, and maternal and perinatal safety outcomes of IOL with vaginal misoprostol versus vaginal dinoprostone using individual participant data from randomised clinical trials. SEARCH STRATEGY: The following databases were searched from inception to March 2023: CINAHL Plus, ClinicalTrials.gov, Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group Trial Register, Ovid Embase, Ovid Emcare, Ovid MEDLINE, Scopus and the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP). SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs), with viable singleton gestation, no language restrictions, and all published and unpublished data. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: An individual participant data meta-analysis was carried out. MAIN RESULTS: Ten of 52 eligible trials provided individual participant data, of which two were excluded after checking data integrity. The remaining eight trials compared low-dose vaginal misoprostol versus dinoprostone, including 4180 women undergoing IOL, which represents 32.8% of all participants in the published RCTs. Of these, 2077 were assigned to low-dose vaginal misoprostol and 2103 were assigned to vaginal dinoprostone. Compared with vaginal dinoprostone, low-dose vaginal misoprostol had a comparable rate of vaginal birth. Composite adverse perinatal outcomes did not differ between the groups. Compared with vaginal dinoprostone, composite adverse maternal outcomes were significantly lower with low-dose vaginal misoprostol (aOR 0.80, 95% CI 0.65-0.98, P = 0.03, I2 = 0%). CONCLUSIONS: Low-dose vaginal misoprostol and vaginal dinoprostone for IOL are comparable in terms of effectiveness and perinatal safety. However, low-dose vaginal misoprostol is likely to lead to a lower rate of composite adverse maternal outcomes than vaginal dinoprostone.

Tailored anticoagulant treatment after a first venous thromboembolism: protocol of the Leiden Thrombosis Recurrence Risk Prevention (L-TRRiP) study - cohort-based randomised controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: Patients with a first venous thromboembolism (VTE) are at risk of recurrence. Recurrent VTE (rVTE) can be prevented by extended anticoagulant therapy, but this comes at the cost of an increased risk of bleeding. It is still uncertain whether patients with an intermediate recurrence risk or with a high recurrence and high bleeding risk will benefit from extended anticoagulant treatment, and whether a strategy where anticoagulant duration is tailored on the predicted risks of rVTE and bleeding can improve outcomes. The aim of the Leiden Thrombosis Recurrence Risk Prevention (L-TRRiP) study is to evaluate the outcomes of tailored duration of long-term anticoagulant treatment based on individualised assessment of rVTE and major bleeding risks. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The L-TRRiP study is a multicentre, open-label, cohort-based, randomised controlled trial, including patients with a first VTE. We classify the risk of rVTE and major bleeding using the L-TRRiP and VTE-BLEED scores, respectively. After 3 months of anticoagulant therapy, patients with a low rVTE risk will discontinue anticoagulant treatment, patients with a high rVTE and low bleeding risk will continue anticoagulant treatment, whereas all other patients will be randomised to continue or discontinue anticoagulant treatment. All patients will be followed up for at least 2 years. Inclusion will continue until the randomised group consists of 608 patients; we estimate to include 1600 patients in total. The primary outcome is the combined incidence of rVTE and major bleeding in the randomised group after 2 years of follow-up. Secondary outcomes include the incidence of rVTE and major bleeding, functional outcomes, quality of life and cost-effectiveness in all patients. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The protocol was approved by the Medical Research Ethics Committee Leiden-Den Haag-Delft. Results are expected in 2028 and will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals and during (inter)national conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT06087952.

Real-World Evidence to Inform Regulatory Decision Making: A Scoping Review.

Real-world evidence (RWE) is increasingly considered in regulatory decision making. When, and to which extent, RWE is considered relevant by regulators likely depends on many factors. This review aimed to identify factors that make RWE necessary or desirable to inform regulatory decision making. A scoping review was conducted using literature databases (PubMed, Embase, Emcare, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library) and websites of regulatory agencies, health technology assessment agencies, research institutes, and professional organizations involved with RWE. Articles were included if: (1) they discussed factors or contexts that impact whether RWE could be necessary or desirable in regulatory decision making; (2) focused on pharmacological or biological interventions in humans; and (3) considered decision making in Europe or North America, or without a focus on a specific region. We included 118 articles in the scoping review. Two major themes and six subthemes were identified. The first theme concerns questions addressable with RWE, with subthemes epidemiology and benefit-risk assessment. The second theme concerns contextual factors, with subthemes feasibility, ethical considerations, limitations of available evidence, and disease and treatment-specific aspects. Collectively, these themes encompassed 43 factors influencing the need for RWE in regulatory decisions. Although single factors may not make RWE fully necessary, their cumulative influence could make RWE essential and pivotal in regulatory decision making. This overview contributes to ongoing discussions emphasizing the nuanced interplay of factors influencing the necessity or desirability of RWE to inform regulatory decision making.

Effectiveness of Seizure Dogs for People With Severe Refractory Epilepsy: Results From the EPISODE Study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate whether people living with severe medically refractory epilepsy (PSRE) benefit from a seizure dog. METHODS: An individual-level stepped-wedge randomized controlled trial was conducted. The study was conducted in the Netherlands among adults with daily to weekly seizures. All participants were included simultaneously (on June 1, 2019) while receiving usual care. Then, during the 36-month follow-up, they received a seizure dog in a randomized sequence. Participants kept a seizure diary and completed 3-monthly surveys. Seizure frequency was the primary outcome. Secondary outcomes included seizure-free days, seizure severity, health-related quality of life (HRQoL), and well-being. Data were analyzed using generalized linear mixed modeling (GLMM). The models assumed a delayed intervention effect, starting when the seizure dog reached an advanced stage of training. Effects were calculated as changes per 28-day period with the intervention. RESULTS: Data were collected from 25 participants, of whom 20 crossed over to the intervention condition. The median follow-up was 19 months with usual care and 12 months with the intervention. On average, participants experienced 115 (SD 164) seizures per 28-day period in the usual care condition and 73 (SD 131) seizures in the intervention condition. Seven participants achieved a reduction of 50% or more at the end of follow-up. GLMM indicated a 3.1% decrease in seizure frequency for each consecutive 28-day period with the intervention (0.969, 95% CI 0.960-0.977). Furthermore, an increase in the number of seizure-free days was observed (1.012, 95% CI 1.009, 1.015), but no effect on seizure severity measured with the NHS3. Generic HRQoL scores improved, as reflected in the decrease in EQ-5D-5L utility decrement (0.975, 95% CI 0.954-0.997). Smaller improvements were observed on overall self-rated HRQoL, epilepsy-specific HRQoL, and well-being, measured with the EQ VAS, QOLIE-31-P, and ICECAP-A, respectively. DISCUSSION: Seizure dogs reduce seizure frequency, increase the number of seizure-free days, and improve the quality of life of PSRE. The magnitude of the effect on generic HRQoL indicates that seizure dogs benefit PSRE beyond the impact on seizure frequency alone. Early discontinuation of seizure dog partnerships suggests that this intervention is not suitable for all PSRE and requires further study. TRIAL REGISTRATION INFORMATION: This study was registered in the Dutch Trial Register (NL6682) on November 28, 2017. Participants were enrolled on June 1, 2019. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class III evidence that seizure dogs are associated with a decrease in seizure frequency in adult patients with medically refractory epilepsy.

Effective sample size: A measure of individual uncertainty in predictions.

Clinical prediction models are estimated using a sample of limited size from the target population, leading to uncertainty in predictions, even when the model is correctly specified. Generally, not all patient profiles are observed uniformly in model development. As a result, sampling uncertainty varies between individual patients' predictions. We aimed to develop an intuitive measure of individual prediction uncertainty. The variance of a patient's prediction can be equated to the variance of the sample mean outcome in n ∗ $$ {n}_{\ast } $$ hypothetical patients with the same predictor values. This hypothetical sample size n ∗ $$ {n}_{\ast } $$ can be interpreted as the number of similar patients n eff $$ {n}_{\mathrm{eff}} $$ that the prediction is effectively based on, given that the model is correct. For generalized linear models, we derived analytical expressions for the effective sample size. In addition, we illustrated the concept in patients with acute myocardial infarction. In model development, n eff $$ {n}_{\mathrm{eff}} $$ can be used to balance accuracy versus uncertainty of predictions. In a validation sample, the distribution of n eff $$ {n}_{\mathrm{eff}} $$ indicates which patients were more and less represented in the development data, and whether predictions might be too uncertain for some to be practically meaningful. In a clinical setting, the effective sample size may facilitate communication of uncertainty about predictions. We propose the effective sample size as a clinically interpretable measure of uncertainty in individual predictions. Its implications should be explored further for the development, validation and clinical implementation of prediction models.

Bacterial vaginosis in a subfertile population undergoing fertility treatments: a prospective cohort study.

PURPOSE: This study investigates the role of bacterial vaginosis (BV) on pregnancy rates during various fertility treatments. BV is known to influence several obstetric outcomes, such as preterm delivery and endometritis. Only few studies investigated the effect of BV in subfertile women, and studies found a negative effect on fecundity especially in the in vitro fertilisation population. METHODS: Observational prospective study, 76 couples attending a fertility clinic in the Netherlands between July 2019 and June 2022, undergoing a total of 133 attempts of intra uterine insemination, in vitro fertilization or intra cytoplasmatic sperm injection. Vaginal samples taken at oocyte retrieval or insemination were analysed on qPCR BV and 16S rRNA gene microbiota analysis of V1-V2 region. Logistic regression with a Generalized Estimated Equations analysis was used to account for multiple observations per couples. RESULTS: A total of 26% of the 133 samples tested positive for BV. No significant differences were observed in ongoing pregnancy or live birth rates based on BV status (OR 0.50 (0.16-1.59), aOR 0.32 (0.09-1.23)) or microbiome community state type. There was a tendency of more miscarriages based on positive BV status (OR 4.22 (1.10-16.21), aOR 4.28 (0.65-28.11)) or community state type group III and IV. On baseline qPCR positive participants had significantly higher body mass index and smoked more often. Odds ratios were adjusted for smoking status, body mass index, and socioeconomic status. CONCLUSION: Bacterial vaginosis does not significantly impact ongoing pregnancy rates but could affect miscarriage rates.

Development and validation of a clinical prediction model for 90-day venous thromboembolism risk following total hip and total knee arthroplasty: a multinational study.

BACKGROUND: The risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) following total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is 1.0% to 1.5%, despite uniform thromboprophylaxis. OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a prediction model for 90-day VTE risk. METHODS: A multinational cohort study was performed. For model development, records were used from the Oxford Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre linked to Hospital Episode Statistics and Office of National Statistics UK routine data. For external validation, data were used from the Danish Hip and Knee Arthroplasty Registry, the National Patient Registry, and the National Prescription Registry. Binary multivariable logistic regression techniques were used for development. RESULTS: In the UK data set, 64 032 THA/TKA procedures were performed and 1.4% developed VTE. The prediction model consisted of age, body mass index, sex, cystitis within 1 year before surgery, history of phlebitis, history of VTE, presence of varicose veins, presence of asthma, history of transient ischemic attack, history of myocardial infarction, presence of hypertension and THA or TKA. The area under the curve of the model was 0.65 (95% CI, 0.63-0.67). Furthermore, 36 169 procedures were performed in the Danish cohort, of whom 1.0% developed VTE. Here, the area under the curve was 0.64 (95% CI, 0.61-0.67). The calibration slope was 0.92 in the validation study and 1.00 in the development study. CONCLUSION: This clinical prediction model for 90-day VTE risk following THA and TKA performed well in both development and validation data. This model can be used to estimate an individual's risk for VTE following THA/TKA.

Severity of haemolytic disease of the fetus and newborn in patients with a history of intrauterine transfusions in a previous pregnancy: A nationwide retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Pregnant women who received at least one intrauterine transfusion (IUT) for haemolytic disease of the fetus and newborn (HDFN) in the preceding pregnancy are presumed to have a high likelihood of requiring IUTs again, often starting at an earlier gestational age. Our aim was to quantify these risks in a large national cohort. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study of a nationwide Dutch database. SETTING: The Netherlands. POPULATION: All women treated in The Netherlands with IUTs for Rhesus D (RhD)- or Kell-mediated HDFN between 1999 and 2017 and their follow-up pregnancies were included. Pregnancies with an antigen-negative fetus were excluded. METHODS: Electronic patient files were searched for the number and gestational age of each IUT, and analysed using descriptive statistics and linear regression. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Percentage of women requiring one or more IUTs again in the subsequent pregnancy, and gestational age at first IUT in both pregnancies. RESULTS: Of the 321 women in our study population, 21% (69) had a subsequent ongoing pregnancy at risk. IUTs were administered in 86% (59/69) of cases. In subsequent pregnancies, the median gestational age at first IUT was 3 weeks earlier (interquartile range -6.8 to 0.4) than in the preceding pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows that pregnant women with a history of IUTs in the previous pregnancy are highly likely to require IUTs again, and on average 3 weeks earlier. Clinicians need to be aware of these risks and ensure timely referral, and close surveillance from early pregnancy onwards. Additionally, for women with a history of IUT and their caregivers, this information is essential to enable adequate preconception counselling.