Evaluating the performance of polygenic risk profiling across diverse ancestry populations in Parkinson's disease.

Objective: This study aims to address disparities in risk prediction by evaluating the performance of polygenic risk score (PRS) models using the 90 risk variants across 78 independent loci previously linked to Parkinson's disease (PD) risk across seven diverse ancestry populations. Methods: We conducted a multi-stage study, testing PRS models in predicting PD status across seven different ancestries applying three approaches: 1) PRS adjusted by gender and age; 2) PRS adjusted by gender, age and principal components (PCs); and 3) PRS adjusted by gender, age and percentage of population admixture. These models were built using the largest four population-specific summary statistics of PD risk to date (base data) and individual level data obtained from the Global Parkinson's Genetics Program (target data). We performed power calculations to estimate the minimum sample size required to conduct these analyses. A total of 91 PRS models were developed to investigate cumulative known genetic variation associated with PD risk and age of onset in a global context. Results: We observed marked heterogeneity in risk estimates across non-European ancestries, including East Asians, Central Asians, Latino/Admixed Americans, Africans, African admixed, and Ashkenazi Jewish populations. Risk allele patterns for the 90 risk variants yielded significant differences in directionality, frequency, and magnitude of effect. PRS did not improve in performance when predicting disease status using similar base and target data across multiple ancestries, demonstrating that cumulative PRS models based on current known risk are inherently biased towards European populations. We found that PRS models adjusted by percentage of admixture outperformed models that adjusted for conventional PCs in highly admixed populations. Overall, the clinical utility of our models in individually predicting PD status is limited in concordance with the estimates observed in European populations. Interpretation: This study represents the first comprehensive assessment of how PRS models predict PD risk and age at onset in a multi-ancestry fashion. Given the heterogeneity and distinct genetic architecture of PD across different populations, our assessment emphasizes the need for larger and diverse study cohorts of individual-level target data and well-powered ancestry-specific summary statistics. Our current understanding of PD status unraveled through GWAS in European populations is not generally applicable to other ancestries. Future studies should integrate clinical and *omics level data to enhance the accuracy and predictive power of PRS across diverse populations.

Impact Of The COVID-19 Pandemic on Hospital Admissions and In-Hospital Lethality From Cardiovascular Diseases in Brazil: An Ecological and Time Series Study.

Since the onset of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Brazil, several government policies have been taken. Herein, we aimed to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on hospital admissions and in-hospital lethality for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in Brazil in 2020. An ecological and time-series study on hospitalizations and deaths from CVD in Brazil was conducted from January 2018 to December 2020.The hospital admission rate for CVD reduced by 17.1%, with a significant decreasing trend between January and May 2020 (Annual Percent Change: -8,7%; P-value < 0.001). The in-hospital lethality rate increased from 8.2% in 2018 to 9.3% in 2020. During this period, Brazil totaled 21.8 million days of hospital stay. Indicators of hospital admissions and lethality from CVD in Brazil were impacted by the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic in different ways in the regions and depending on the nature of the indicator.

In-Hospital Mortality from Cardiovascular Diseases in Brazil during the First Year of The COVID-19 Pandemic. / Excesso de Mortalidade Hospitalar por Doenças Cardiovasculares no Brasil Durante o Primeiro Ano da Pandemia de COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has had an impact on mortality from several diseases worldwide, especially cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Brazil is a continent-sized country with significant differences in the health care structure between its federative units. OBJECTIVE: Analyze in-hospital mortality from CVDs in the Brazilian public health system during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic (2020). METHODS: This is an ecological study analyzing the absolute number of in-hospital deaths and the rate of in-hospital mortality in Brazil, its macro-regions, and federative units. Data were obtained from the Hospital Information System of the Brazilian Ministry of Health. To analyze excess mortality, the P-score was used. It compares the events observed with those expected for a given place and period. The P-score was corrected by the joinpoint regression model, with a 95% confidence interval and 5% significance level. RESULTS: There were 93,104 in-hospital deaths due to CVD in Brazil in 2020, representing 1,495 fewer deaths (P score: -1.58) than expected. The central-west region had a positive P-score, with a 15.1% increase in the number of deaths. Ten federative units showed a greater number of deaths in 2020. There was also a 13.3% excess in-hospital mortality at the country level, and an excess in-hospital mortality in all macro-regions. CONCLUSIONS: There was a decrease in the absolute number of in-hospital deaths, as well as an increase in in-hospital mortality from CVD in Brazil, in 2020, after the COVID-19 pandemic onset.

FUNDAMENTO: A pandemia da COVID-19 tem causado um impacto sobre a mortalidade por várias doenças em todo o mundo, especialmente por doenças cardiovasculares (DCVs). O Brasil é um país de dimensões continentais com diferenças significativas na estrutura de saúde entre seus estados. OBJETIVO: Analisar a mortalidade hospitalar por DCV no sistema público de saúde durante o primeiro ano da pandemia por COVID-19 (2020) no Brasil. MÉTODOS: Este é um estudo ecológico analisando o número absoluto de mortes hospitalares e a taxa de mortalidade hospitalar no Brasil, suas macrorregiões, e unidades federativas. Os dados foram obtidos do Sistema de Informações Hospitalares (SIH) do Ministério da Saúde. O P-escore foi usado para analisar o excesso de mortalidade. O escore compara os eventos observados com os eventos esperados para um dado local e período. O escore-P foi corrigido por um modelo de regressão joinpoint, com um intervalo de confiança de 95% e nível de significância de 5%. RESULTADOS: Houve 93.104 óbitos hospitalares por DCV no Brasil em 2020, o que representa 1495 menos óbitos (escore-P: -1,58) que o esperado. A região centro-oeste apresentou um escore-P positivo, com um aumento de 15,1% no número de mortes. Dez estados apresentaram um maior número de óbitos em 2020. Ainda, observou-se um excesso de 13,3% de mortalidade hospitalar no país como um todo, e um excesso de mortalidade hospitalar em todas as macrorregiões. CONCLUSÕES: Houve uma diminuição no número absoluto de óbitos hospitalares, bem como um aumento na taxa de mortalidade por DCV no Brasil em 2020, após o início da pandemia por COVID-19.

NAToRA, a relatedness-pruning method to minimize the loss of dataset size in genetic and omics analyses.

Genetic and omics analyses frequently require independent observations, which is not guaranteed in real datasets. When relatedness cannot be accounted for, solutions involve removing related individuals (or observations) and, consequently, a reduction of available data. We developed a network-based relatedness-pruning method that minimizes dataset reduction while removing unwanted relationships in a dataset. It uses node degree centrality metric to identify highly connected nodes (or individuals) and implements heuristics that approximate the minimal reduction of a dataset to allow its application to complex datasets. When compared with two other popular population genetics methodologies (PLINK and KING), NAToRA shows the best combination of removing all relatives while keeping the largest possible number of individuals in all datasets tested and also, with similar effects on the allele frequency spectrum and Principal Component Analysis than PLINK and KING. NAToRA is freely available, both as a standalone tool that can be easily incorporated as part of a pipeline, and as a graphical web tool that allows visualization of the relatedness networks. NAToRA also accepts a variety of relationship metrics as input, which facilitates its use. We also release a genealogies simulator software used for different tests performed in this study.

Excesso de Mortalidade Hospitalar por Doenças Cardiovasculares no Brasil Durante o Primeiro Ano da Pandemia de COVID-19 / In-Hospital Mortality from Cardiovascular Diseases in Brazil during the First Year of The COVID-19 Pandemic

Resumo Fundamento: A pandemia da COVID-19 tem causado um impacto sobre a mortalidade por várias doenças em todo o mundo, especialmente por doenças cardiovasculares (DCVs). O Brasil é um país de dimensões continentais com diferenças significativas na estrutura de saúde entre seus estados. Objetivo: Analisar a mortalidade hospitalar por DCV no sistema público de saúde durante o primeiro ano da pandemia por COVID-19 (2020) no Brasil. Métodos: Este é um estudo ecológico analisando o número absoluto de mortes hospitalares e a taxa de mortalidade hospitalar no Brasil, suas macrorregiões, e unidades federativas. Os dados foram obtidos do Sistema de Informações Hospitalares (SIH) do Ministério da Saúde. O P-escore foi usado para analisar o excesso de mortalidade. O escore compara os eventos observados com os eventos esperados para um dado local e período. O escore-P foi corrigido por um modelo de regressão joinpoint, com um intervalo de confiança de 95% e nível de significância de 5%. Resultados: Houve 93.104 óbitos hospitalares por DCV no Brasil em 2020, o que representa 1495 menos óbitos (escore-P: -1,58) que o esperado. A região centro-oeste apresentou um escore-P positivo, com um aumento de 15,1% no número de mortes. Dez estados apresentaram um maior número de óbitos em 2020. Ainda, observou-se um excesso de 13,3% de mortalidade hospitalar no país como um todo, e um excesso de mortalidade hospitalar em todas as macrorregiões. Conclusões: Houve uma diminuição no número absoluto de óbitos hospitalares, bem como um aumento na taxa de mortalidade por DCV no Brasil em 2020, após o início da pandemia por COVID-19.

Abstract Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has had an impact on mortality from several diseases worldwide, especially cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Brazil is a continent-sized country with significant differences in the health care structure between its federative units. Objective: Analyze in-hospital mortality from CVDs in the Brazilian public health system during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic (2020). Methods: This is an ecological study analyzing the absolute number of in-hospital deaths and the rate of in-hospital mortality in Brazil, its macro-regions, and federative units. Data were obtained from the Hospital Information System of the Brazilian Ministry of Health. To analyze excess mortality, the P-score was used. It compares the events observed with those expected for a given place and period. The P-score was corrected by the joinpoint regression model, with a 95% confidence interval and 5% significance level. Results: There were 93,104 in-hospital deaths due to CVD in Brazil in 2020, representing 1,495 fewer deaths (P score: −1.58) than expected. The central-west region had a positive P-score, with a 15.1% increase in the number of deaths. Ten federative units showed a greater number of deaths in 2020. There was also a 13.3% excess in-hospital mortality at the country level, and an excess in-hospital mortality in all macro-regions. Conclusions: There was a decrease in the absolute number of in-hospital deaths, as well as an increase in in-hospital mortality from CVD in Brazil, in 2020, after the COVID-19 pandemic onset.

Population genetics of PDE4B (phosphodiesterase-4B) in neglected Native Americans: Implications for cancer pharmacogenetics.

PDE4B (phosphodiesterase-4B) has an important role in cancer and in pharmacology of some disorders, such as inflammatory diseases. Remarkably in Native Americans, PDE4B variants are associated with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) relapse, as this gene modulates sensitivity of glucocorticoids used in ALL chemotherapy. PDE4B allele rs6683977.G, associated with genomic regions of Native American origin in US-Hispanics (admixed among Native Americans, Europeans, and Africans), increases ALL relapse risk, contributing to an association between Native American ancestry and ALL relapse that disappeared with an extra-phase of chemotherapy. This result insinuates that indigenous populations along the Americas may have high frequencies of rs6683977.G, but this has never been corroborated. We studied ancestry and PDE4B diversity in 951 healthy individuals from nine Latin American populations. In non-admixed Native American populations rs6683977.G has frequencies greater than 90%, is in linkage disequilibrium with other ALL relapse associated and regulatory variants in PDE4B-intron-7, conforming haplotypes showing their highest worldwide frequencies in Native Americans (>0.82). Our findings inform the discussion on the pertinence of an extra-phase of chemotherapy in Native American populations, and exemplifies how knowledge generated in US-Hispanics is relevant for their even more neglected and vulnerable Native American ancestors along the American continent.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on compulsory notification of meningitis during the first wave of the pandemic in Brazil: an ecological study using P-score.

BACKGROUND: Meningitis is listed as one of the diseases requiring compulsory notification in Brazil. It can affect all age groups and also has no seasonality. Cases can be recorded in all months of the year and in all states of Brazil. Despite its importance, the obligation of immediate notification may have been compromised by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the immediate impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on compulsory notifications of meningitis in Brazil and its states during the first wave of the pandemic. DESIGN AND SETTING: This was an ecological study involving all confirmed cases of meningitis in Brazil, in its regions and in its states. METHODS: Data for the months from 2015 to 2020 were obtained from the database of the Notifiable Diseases Information System (Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação, SINAN), in the Department of Informatics of the National Health System (Departamento de Informática do Sistema Único de Saúde, DATASUS). The P-score was used to obtain the percentage change in the numbers of cases reported in 2020. RESULTS: A 45.7% reduction in notifications of meningitis in Brazil was observed. Regarding the regions and the states, with the exception of Roraima, all of them showed a negative P-score, with decreasing curves each month. CONCLUSION: The pandemic caused a negative impact on meningitis notifications in Brazil.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on compulsory notification of meningitis during the first wave of the pandemic in Brazil: an ecological study using P-score

Abstract BACKGROUND: Meningitis is listed as one of the diseases requiring compulsory notification in Brazil. It can affect all age groups and also has no seasonality. Cases can be recorded in all months of the year and in all states of Brazil. Despite its importance, the obligation of immediate notification may have been compromised by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the immediate impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on compulsory notifications of meningitis in Brazil and its states during the first wave of the pandemic. DESIGN AND SETTING: This was an ecological study involving all confirmed cases of meningitis in Brazil, in its regions and in its states. METHODS: Data for the months from 2015 to 2020 were obtained from the database of the Notifiable Diseases Information System (Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação, SINAN), in the Department of Informatics of the National Health System (Departamento de Informática do Sistema Único de Saúde, DATASUS). The P-score was used to obtain the percentage change in the numbers of cases reported in 2020. RESULTS: A 45.7% reduction in notifications of meningitis in Brazil was observed. Regarding the regions and the states, with the exception of Roraima, all of them showed a negative P-score, with decreasing curves each month. CONCLUSION: The pandemic caused a negative impact on meningitis notifications in Brazil.

Time trend, social vulnerability, and identification of risk areas for tuberculosis in Brazil: An ecological study.

INTRODUCTION: Tuberculosis is one of the ten leading causes of death and the leading infectious cause worldwide. The disease represents a challenge to health systems around the world. In 2018, it is estimated that 10 million people were affected by tuberculosis, and approximately 1.5 million people died due to the disease worldwide, including 251,000 patients coinfected with HIV. In Brazil, the disease caused 4,490 deaths, with rate of 2.2 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. The objective of this study was to analyze the time behavior, spatial, spatial-temporal distribution, and the effects of social vulnerability on the incidence of TB in Brazil during the period from 2001 to 2017. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A spatial-temporal ecological study was conducted, including all new cases of tuberculosis registered in Brazil during the period from 2001 to 2017. The following variables were analyzed: incidence rate of tuberculosis, the Social Vulnerability Index, its subindices, its 16 indicators, and an additional 14 variables available on the Atlas of Social Vulnerability. The statistical treatment of the data consisted of the following three stages: a) time trend analysis with a joinpoint regression model; b) spatial analysis and identification of risk areas based on smoothing of the incidence rate by local empirical Bayesian model, application of global and local Moran statistics, and, finally, spatial-temporal scan statistics; and c) analysis of association between the incidence rate and the indicators of social vulnerability. RESULTS: Brazil reduced the incidence of tuberculosis from 42.8 per 100,000 to 35.2 per 100,000 between 2001 and 2017. Only the state of Minas Gerais showed an increasing trend, whereas nine other states showed a stationary trend. A total of 326 Brazilian municipalities were classified as high priority, and 22 high-risk spatial-temporal clusters were identified. The overall Social Vulnerability Index and the subindices of Human Capital and Income and Work were associated with the incidence of tuberculosis. It was also observed that the incidence rates were greater in municipalities with greater social vulnerability. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified clusters with high risk of TB in Brazil. A significant association was observed between the incidence rate of TB and the indices of social vulnerability.

Tracing the Distribution of European Lactase Persistence Genotypes Along the Americas.

In adulthood, the ability to digest lactose, the main sugar present in milk of mammals, is a phenotype (lactase persistence) observed in historically herder populations, mainly Northern Europeans, Eastern Africans, and Middle Eastern nomads. As the -13910∗T allele in the MCM6 gene is the most well-characterized allele responsible for the lactase persistence phenotype, the -13910C > T (rs4988235) polymorphism is commonly evaluated in lactase persistence studies. Lactase non-persistent adults may develop symptoms of lactose intolerance when consuming dairy products. In the Americas, there is no evidence of the consumption of these products until the arrival of Europeans. However, several American countries' dietary guidelines recommend consuming dairy for adequate human nutrition and health promotion. Considering the extensive use of dairy and the complex ancestry of Pan-American admixed populations, we studied the distribution of -13910C > T lactase persistence genotypes and its flanking haplotypes of European origin in 7,428 individuals from several Pan-American admixed populations. We found that the -13910∗T allele frequency in Pan-American admixed populations is directly correlated with allele frequency of the European sources. Moreover, we did not observe any overrepresentation of European haplotypes in the -13910C > T flanking region, suggesting no selective pressure after admixture in the Americas. Finally, considering the dominant effect of the -13910∗T allele, our results indicate that Pan-American admixed populations are likely to have higher frequency of lactose intolerance, suggesting that general dietary guidelines deserve further evaluation across the continent.

Prevalence of Systemic Arterial Hypertension and Diabetes Mellitus in Individuals with COVID-19: A Retrospective Study of Deaths in Pernambuco, Brazil. / Prevalência de Hipertensão Arterial Sistêmica e Diabetes Mellitus em Indivíduos com COVID-19: Um Estudo Retrospectivo de Óbitos em Pernambuco, Brasil.

Hipertensão arterial sistêmica (HAS) e diabetes mellitus (DM) são dois dos principais fatores de risco para a mortalidade por COVID-19. Descrever a prevalência e o perfil clínico-epidemiológico de óbito por COVID-19 ocorridos em Pernambuco, Brasil, entre 12 de março e 14 de maio de 2020 entre pacientes que possuíam hipertensão arterial sistêmica e/ou diabetes mellitus como doenças prévias. Estudo observacional transversal. Foram analisadas as seguintes variáveis: município de procedência, sexo, faixa etária, tempo entre o início dos sinais/sintomas e o óbito, sinais/sintomas, tipo de comorbidades e hábitos de vida. Variáveis categóricas foram descritas por meio de frequências e variáveis contínuas por meio de medidas de tendência central e de dispersão. Os testes de Mann-Whitney e Kruskal-Wallis foram utilizados. Dos 1.276 registros incluídos no estudo, 410 apresentavam HAS e/ou DM. A prevalência de HAS foi 26,5% (n=338) e de DM foi 19,7% (n=252). Dos registros, 158 (12,4%) eram de pacientes que possuíam somente HAS, 72 (5,6%) somente DM e 180 (14,1%) apresentavam HAS e DM. Dos indivíduos com HAS, 53,3% apresentavam DM e 71,4% dos diabéticos apresentam HAS. A mediana (em dias) do tempo entre o início dos sinais/sintomas e o desfecho óbito foi 8,0 (IIQ 9,0), sem diferença significativa entre os grupos de comorbidades (p=0,633), sexo (p=0,364) e faixa etária (p=0,111). Observou-se maior prevalência de DM e HAS na população masculina (DM ­ 61,3% eram homens e 38,9% mulheres; HAS ­ 53,2% eram homens e 46,8% mulheres). Os sinais/sintomas mais frequentes foram dispneia (74,1%; n=304), tosse (72,2%; n=296), febre (68,5%; n=281) e saturação de O2<95% (66,1%; n=271). Dos hipertensos, 73,3% (n=100) apresentavam outras comorbidades/fatores de risco associados, e 54,2% (n=39) dos diabéticos apresentavam outras comorbidades/fatores de risco associados. Destacaramse as cardiopatias (19,5%; n=80), obesidade (8,3%; n=34), doença respiratória prévia (7,3%; n=30) e nefropatia (7,8%; n=32). A prevalência de tabagismo foi 8,8% (n=36) e de etilismo alcançou 3,4% (n=14). O estudo mostrou que a prevalência de HAS foi superior à prevalência de DM nos indivíduos que foram a óbito por COVID-19. Em idosos, a prevalência foi superior à observada em indivíduos não idosos.

Human-SARS-CoV-2 interactome and human genetic diversity: TMPRSS2-rs2070788, associated with severe influenza, and its population genetics caveats in Native Americans.

For human/SARS-CoV-2 interactome genes ACE2, TMPRSS2 and BSG, there is a convincing evidence of association in Asians with influenza-induced SARS for TMPRSS2-rs2070788, tag-SNP of the eQTL rs383510. This case illustrates the importance of population genetics and of sequencing data in the design of genetic association studies in different human populations: the high linkage disequilibrium (LD) between rs2070788 and rs383510 is Asian-specific. Leveraging on a combination of genotyping and sequencing data for Native Americans (neglected in genetic studies), we show that while their frequencies of the Asian tag-SNP rs2070788 is, surprisingly, the highest worldwide, it is not in LD with the eQTL rs383510, that therefore, should be directly genotyped in genetic association studies of SARS in populations with Native American ancestry.

Prevalência de hipertensão arterial sistêmica e diabetes mellitus em indivíduos com covid-19: um estudo retrospectivo de óbitos em pernambuco, brasil / Prevalence of systemic arterial hypertension and diabetes mellitus in individuals with covid-19: a retrospective study of deaths in pernambuco, brazil

Resumo Hipertensão arterial sistêmica (HAS) e diabetes mellitus (DM) são dois dos principais fatores de risco para a mortalidade por COVID-19. Descrever a prevalência e o perfil clínico-epidemiológico de óbito por COVID-19 ocorridos em Pernambuco, Brasil, entre 12 de março e 14 de maio de 2020 entre pacientes que possuíam hipertensão arterial sistêmica e/ou diabetes mellitus como doenças prévias. Estudo observacional transversal. Foram analisadas as seguintes variáveis: município de procedência, sexo, faixa etária, tempo entre o início dos sinais/sintomas e o óbito, sinais/sintomas, tipo de comorbidades e hábitos de vida. Variáveis categóricas foram descritas por meio de frequências e variáveis contínuas por meio de medidas de tendência central e de dispersão. Os testes de Mann-Whitney e Kruskal-Wallis foram utilizados. Dos 1.276 registros incluídos no estudo, 410 apresentavam HAS e/ou DM. A prevalência de HAS foi 26,5% (n=338) e de DM foi 19,7% (n=252). Dos registros, 158 (12,4%) eram de pacientes que possuíam somente HAS, 72 (5,6%) somente DM e 180 (14,1%) apresentavam HAS e DM. Dos indivíduos com HAS, 53,3% apresentavam DM e 71,4% dos diabéticos apresentam HAS. A mediana (em dias) do tempo entre o início dos sinais/sintomas e o desfecho óbito foi 8,0 (IIQ 9,0), sem diferença significativa entre os grupos de comorbidades (p=0,633), sexo (p=0,364) e faixa etária (p=0,111). Observou-se maior prevalência de DM e HAS na população masculina (DM — 61,3% eram homens e 38,9% mulheres; HAS — 53,2% eram homens e 46,8% mulheres). Os sinais/sintomas mais frequentes foram dispneia (74,1%; n=304), tosse (72,2%; n=296), febre (68,5%; n=281) e saturação de O2<95% (66,1%; n=271). Dos hipertensos, 73,3% (n=100) apresentavam outras comorbidades/fatores de risco associados, e 54,2% (n=39) dos diabéticos apresentavam outras comorbidades/fatores de risco associados. Destacaramse as cardiopatias (19,5%; n=80), obesidade (8,3%; n=34), doença respiratória prévia (7,3%; n=30) e nefropatia (7,8%; n=32). A prevalência de tabagismo foi 8,8% (n=36) e de etilismo alcançou 3,4% (n=14). O estudo mostrou que a prevalência de HAS foi superior à prevalência de DM nos indivíduos que foram a óbito por COVID-19. Em idosos, a prevalência foi superior à observada em indivíduos não idosos.

Temporal Trend of Mortality Due to Ischemic Heart Diseases in Northeastern Brazil (1996-2016): An Analysis According to Gender and Age Group. / Tendência Temporal da Mortalidade por Doenças Isquêmicas do Coração no Nordeste Brasileiro (1996­2016): Uma Análise Segundo Gênero e Faixa Etária.

BACKGROUND: Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is the leading cause of death among cardiovascular diseases (CVD). OBJECTIVE: To describe the sociodemographic profile and analyze the trend in the mortality rate due to IHD, according to sex and by age group, in the states of the Northeast region of Brazil, from 1996 to 2016. METHODS: Ecological study involving IHD mortality in the northeastern states. Variables analyzed: sex, age, education, marital status, ICD-10 category and state of residence. Crude and standardized rates were calculated. Death data were collected from the Mortality Information System (SIM) and population data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). In temporal analyzes the regression model by inflection points was used, with the calculation of annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change of the period (AAPC). A 95% confidence interval and a significance level of 5% were considered. RESULTS: 405916 deaths due to IHD were registered in the northeast region during the study period. The death profile is characterized by men (n=229006; 56,42%), elderly (n=301379; 74,25%), race/color brown (n=197936; 48,76%), elementary or <4 years at school (n=232599; 57,30%) and married (n=179599; 44,25%). There was an unusual highlight to the increase in the annual growth rate in the age group of adolescents (AAPC: 5,2%, p <0.01). The standardized regional mortality rate grew from 30,7 per 100,000 inhabitants in 1996 to 53.8 per 100,000 in 2016 (AAPC 2.8%; p<0.01). All nine states presented a statistically significant growth trend, with emphasis on Maranhão (AAPC 7,6%; p<0.01) and Piauí (AAPC 6,0%; p<0.01). CONCLUSION: The prevalent observed profile was male, elderly, race/color brown, low education level and married. Mortality due to IHD presented an upward trend in all states, although with an uneven pattern among the federated units.

FUNDAMENTOS: As doenças isquêmicas do coração (DIC) são a primeira causa de mortes dentre as doenças cardiovasculares (DCV). OBJETIVO: Descrever o perfil sociodemográfico e analisar tendência da taxa de mortalidade por DIC, segundo sexo e por faixa etária, nos estados da região Nordeste do Brasil, 1996-2016. MÉTODOS: Estudo ecológico envolvendo a mortalidade por DIC nos estados do Nordeste. Variáveis analisadas: sexo, idade, escolaridade, estado civil, categoria do CID-10 e estado de residências. Foram calculadas taxas brutas e padronizadas. Os dados de óbitos foram coletados do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade; e os dados populacionais, do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE). Nas análises temporais, utilizou-se o modelo de regressão por pontos de inflexão, com cálculo do percentual de variação anual (APC, Annual Percent Change) e do percentual de variação médio do período (AAPC, Average Annual Percent Change). Considerou-se intervalo de confiança de 95% e significância de 5%. RESULTADOS: Registrou-se 405.916 óbitos por DIC na região Nordeste durante o período estudado. O perfil de óbitos caracteriza-se por homens (n=229.006; 56,42%), idosos (n=301.379; 74,25%), raça/cor parda (n=197.936; 48,76%), fundamental ou <4 anos na escola (n=232.599; 57,30%) e casados (n=179.599; 44,25%). Houve destaque incomum para o aumento na taxa de incremento anual na faixa etária de adolescentes (AAPC: 5,2%, p<0,01). A taxa de mortalidade regional padronizada cresceu de 30,7/100 mil habitantes, em 1996, para 53,8/100 mil, em 2016 (AAPC:2,8%; p<0,01). Todos os nove estados apresentaram tendência estatisticamente significante de crescimento, com ênfases para o Maranhão (AAPC:7,6%; p<0,01) e o Piauí (AAPC:6,0%; p<0,01). CONCLUSÃO: O perfil prevalente observado foi de homens, idosos, raça/cor parda, baixa escolaridade e casados. A mortalidade por DIC apresentou tendência de crescimento em todos os estados, ainda que com padrão desigual entre as unidades federadas.

Tendência temporal da mortalidade por doenças isquêmicas do coração no nordeste brasileiro (1996-2016): Uma análise segundo gênero e faixa etária / Temporal trend of mortality due to ischemic heart diseases in northeastern Brazil (1996-2016): An analysis according to gender and age group

Resumo Fundamentos As doenças isquêmicas do coração (DIC) são a primeira causa de mortes dentre as doenças cardiovasculares (DCV). Objetivo Descrever o perfil sociodemográfico e analisar tendência da taxa de mortalidade por DIC, segundo sexo e por faixa etária, nos estados da região Nordeste do Brasil, 1996-2016. Métodos Estudo ecológico envolvendo a mortalidade por DIC nos estados do Nordeste. Variáveis analisadas: sexo, idade, escolaridade, estado civil, categoria do CID-10 e estado de residências. Foram calculadas taxas brutas e padronizadas. Os dados de óbitos foram coletados do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade; e os dados populacionais, do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE). Nas análises temporais, utilizou-se o modelo de regressão por pontos de inflexão, com cálculo do percentual de variação anual (APC, Annual Percent Change) e do percentual de variação médio do período (AAPC, Average Annual Percent Change). Considerou-se intervalo de confiança de 95% e significância de 5%. Resultados Registrou-se 405.916 óbitos por DIC na região Nordeste durante o período estudado. O perfil de óbitos caracteriza-se por homens (n=229.006; 56,42%), idosos (n=301.379; 74,25%), raça/cor parda (n=197.936; 48,76%), fundamental ou <4 anos na escola (n=232.599; 57,30%) e casados (n=179.599; 44,25%). Houve destaque incomum para o aumento na taxa de incremento anual na faixa etária de adolescentes (AAPC: 5,2%, p<0,01). A taxa de mortalidade regional padronizada cresceu de 30,7/100 mil habitantes, em 1996, para 53,8/100 mil, em 2016 (AAPC:2,8%; p<0,01). Todos os nove estados apresentaram tendência estatisticamente significante de crescimento, com ênfases para o Maranhão (AAPC:7,6%; p<0,01) e o Piauí (AAPC:6,0%; p<0,01). Conclusão O perfil prevalente observado foi de homens, idosos, raça/cor parda, baixa escolaridade e casados. A mortalidade por DIC apresentou tendência de crescimento em todos os estados, ainda que com padrão desigual entre as unidades federadas.

Abstract Background Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is the leading cause of death among cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Objective To describe the sociodemographic profile and analyze the trend in the mortality rate due to IHD, according to sex and by age group, in the states of the Northeast region of Brazil, from 1996 to 2016. Methods Ecological study involving IHD mortality in the northeastern states. Variables analyzed: sex, age, education, marital status, ICD-10 category and state of residence. Crude and standardized rates were calculated. Death data were collected from the Mortality Information System (SIM) and population data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). In temporal analyzes the regression model by inflection points was used, with the calculation of annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change of the period (AAPC). A 95% confidence interval and a significance level of 5% were considered. Results 405916 deaths due to IHD were registered in the northeast region during the study period. The death profile is characterized by men (n=229006; 56,42%), elderly (n=301379; 74,25%), race/color brown (n=197936; 48,76%), elementary or <4 years at school (n=232599; 57,30%) and married (n=179599; 44,25%). There was an unusual highlight to the increase in the annual growth rate in the age group of adolescents (AAPC: 5,2%, p <0.01). The standardized regional mortality rate grew from 30,7 per 100,000 inhabitants in 1996 to 53.8 per 100,000 in 2016 (AAPC 2.8%; p<0.01). All nine states presented a statistically significant growth trend, with emphasis on Maranhão (AAPC 7,6%; p<0.01) and Piauí (AAPC 6,0%; p<0.01). Conclusion The prevalent observed profile was male, elderly, race/color brown, low education level and married. Mortality due to IHD presented an upward trend in all states, although with an uneven pattern among the federated units.

[Spatial and temporal patterns of mortality among motorcyclists in a State of the Brazilian Northeast in the 21st century]. / Padrões espaciais e temporais da mortalidade de motociclistas em estado do nordeste brasileiro no século XXI.

The scope of this work was to analyze the trend and distribution of mortality among motorcyclists in traffic accidents in the State of Alagoas. It involved an ecological study relating to all deaths resulting from motorcycle accidents in the state in the period from 2001 to 2015. Mortality data were obtained from the Mortality Information System (MIS). Mortality rates were calculated and stratified by gender. The joinpoint regression model was used for trend analysis and the Annual Percentage Variation (APV) was calculated with a significance rate of 5%. For the spatial analysis, local empirical Bayesian modeling and Moran statistics and spatial scanning statistics were applied. There were 1,458 deaths of motorcyclists in the period studied, 91.3% of which were men. Three temporal behaviors were observed in this population group: growth (2001-2005), stationary pattern (2005-2013) and decline from 2013 onwards. The highest rates were observed in the 'agreste' and 'sertão' regions of the state of Alagoas. Five spatial clusters were revealed with relation to general and male mortality, all located in the 'agreste' and 'sertão' hinterlands of Alagoas. The modeling showed a reduction of mortality from 2013 onwards and the spatial analysis revealed that the problem is more acute in the interior of the state.

Este trabalho objetivou analisar a tendência e a distribuição espacial da mortalidade de motociclistas em acidentes de transporte no estado de Alagoas. Trata-se de um estudo ecológico referente a todos os óbitos decorrentes de acidentes motociclísticos no estado no período 2001-2015. Os dados de mortalidade foram obtidos do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade (SIM). As taxas de mortalidade foram calculadas e estratificadas por sexo. Para a análise de tendência, foi empregado o modelo de regressão por pontos de inflexão. Calculou-se a Variação Percentual Anual (VPA). Significância de 5%. Para a análise espacial, aplicou-se modelagem bayesiana empírica local, estatística de Moran e estatística de varredura espacial. Foram registrados 1.458 óbitos de motociclistas no período estudado, sendo 91,3% homens. Três comportamentos temporais foram observados nessa população: crescimento (2001-2005), padrão estacionário (2005-2013) e declínio a partir de 2013. As maiores taxas foram observadas no agreste e sertão. Cinco aglomerados espaciais foram evidenciados no que se refere à mortalidade geral e masculina, todos situados no agreste e sertão alagoanos. A modelagem mostrou redução da mortalidade a partir de 2013 e a análise espacial evidenciou que o problema é mais grave no interior do estado.