European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2024 with focus on colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: We predicted cancer mortality figures for 2024 for the European Union (EU), its five most populous countries, and the UK. We focused on mortality from colorectal cancer (CRC). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Based on cancer death certification and population data from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases from 1970 until the most available year, we predicted deaths and age-standardized rates (ASRs) for 2024 for all cancers and the 10 most common cancer sites. We fitted a linear regression to the most recent trend segment identified by the joinpoint model. The number of avoided deaths since the peak in 1988-2024 was estimated for all cancers and CRC. RESULTS: We predicted 1 270 800 cancer deaths for 2024 in the EU, corresponding to ASRs of 123.2/100 000 men (-6.5% versus 2018) and 79.0/100 000 women (-4.3%). Since 1988, about 6.2 million cancer deaths have been avoided in the EU and 1.3 million in the UK. Pancreatic cancer displayed unfavorable predicted rates for both sexes (+1.6% in men and +4.0% in women) and lung cancer for women (+0.3%). The focus on CRC showed falls in mortality at all ages in the EU, by 4.8% for men and 9.5% for women since 2018. The largest declines in CRC mortality are predicted among those 70+ years old. In the UK, projected ASRs for CRC at all ages are favorable for men (-3.4% versus 2018) but not for women (+0.3%). Below age 50 years, CRC mortality showed unfavorable trends in Italy and the UK, in Poland and Spain for men, and in Germany for women. CONCLUSIONS: Predicted cancer mortality rates remain favorable in the EU and the UK, mainly in males due to earlier smoking cessation compared to females, underlining the persisting major role of tobacco on cancer mortality in Europe. Attention should be paid to the predicted increases in CRC mortality in young adults.

Effect of immunotherapy-infusion time of day on survival of patients with advanced cancers: a study-level meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have become the standard of care for numerous malignancies. Emerging evidence suggests that the time of day (ToD) of ICI administration could impact the outcomes of patients with cancer. The consistency of ToD effects on ICI efficacy awaits initial evaluation. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This meta-analysis integrates progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) data from studies with a defined 'cut-off' ToD. Hazard ratios (HRs) [95% confidence interval (CI)] of an earlier progression or death according to 'early' or 'late' ToD of ICIs were collected from each report and pooled. RESULTS: Thirteen studies involved 1663 patients (Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status 0-1, 83%; males/females, 67%/33%) with non-small-cell lung cancer (47%), renal cell carcinoma (24%), melanoma (20%), urothelial cancer (5%), or esophageal carcinoma (4%). Most patients received anti-programmed cell death protein 1 or anti-programmed death-ligand 1 (98%), and a small proportion also received anti-cytotoxic T-lymphocyte-associated protein 4 (anti-CTLA-4) (18%). ToD cut-offs were 13:00 or 14:00 (i.e. ICI median infusion time), for six studies, and 16:00 or 16:30 (i.e. reported threshold for weaker vaccination responses) for seven studies. Pooled analyses revealed that the early ToD groups had longer OS (HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.42-0.58; P < 0.00001) and PFS (HR 0.51, 95% CI 0.42-0.61; P < 0.00001) compared with the late ToD groups. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with selected metastatic cancers seemed to largely benefit from early ToD ICI infusions, which is consistent with circadian mechanisms in immune-cell functions and trafficking. Prospective randomized trials are needed to establish recommendations for optimal circadian timing of ICI-based cancer therapies.

Broadband serrodyne phase modulation for optical frequency standards and spectral purity transfer.

We perform low phase noise, efficient serrodyne modulation for optical frequency control and spectral purity transfer between two ultrastable lasers. After characterizing serrodyne modulation efficiency and its bandwidth, we estimate the phase noise induced by the modulation setup by developing a novel, to the best of our knowledge, composite self-heterodyne interferometer. Exploiting serrodyne modulation, we phase locked a 698 nm ultrastable laser to a superior ultrastable laser source at 1156 nm by means of a frequency comb as a transfer oscillator. We show that this technique is a reliable tool for ultrastable optical frequency standards.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2023 with focus on lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: We predicted cancer mortality figures for 2023 for the European Union (EU-27), its five most populous countries, and the UK. We also focused on mortality from lung cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using cancer death certification and population data from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases for 1970-2018, we predicted numbers of deaths and age-standardized rates (ASRs) for 2023 for all cancers combined and the 10 most common cancer sites. We investigated the changes in trends over the observed period. The number of avoided deaths over the period 1989-2023 were estimated for all cancers as well as lung cancer. RESULTS: We predicted 1 261 990 cancer deaths for 2023 in the EU-27, corresponding to ASRs of 123.8/100 000 men (-6.5% versus 2018) and 79.3 for women (-3.7%). Over 1989-2023, ∼5 862 600 cancer deaths were avoided in the EU-27 compared with peak rates in 1988. Most cancers displayed favorable predicted rates, with the exceptions of pancreatic cancer, which was stable in EU men (8.2/100 000) and rose by 3.4% in EU women (5.9/100 000), and female lung cancer, which, however, tends to level off (13.6/100 000). Steady declines are predicted for colorectal, breast, prostate, leukemia, stomach in both sexes, and male bladder cancers. The focus on lung cancer showed falls in mortality for all age groups in men. Female lung cancer mortality declined in the young (-35.8%, ASR: 0.8/100 000) and middle-aged (-7%, ASR: 31.2/100 000) but still increased by 10% in the elderly (age 65+ years). CONCLUSIONS: The advancements in tobacco control are reflected in favorable lung cancer trends, and should be pushed further. Greater efforts on the control of overweight and obesity, alcohol consumption, infection and related neoplasms, together with improvements in screening, early diagnosis, and treatments may achieve a further 35% reduction in cancer mortality in the EU by 2035.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2022 with focus on ovarian cancer.

BACKGROUND: Cancer mortality rates, though not absolute numbers of deaths, have been decreasing over the last three decades in Europe. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We estimated projections and the number of avoided deaths for total cancer mortality and 10 major cancer sites, between 1989 and 2022, for the European Union (EU), the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain using cancer death certification and population data since 1970 from the World Health Organization and Eurostat. RESULTS: In the EU, we predict 1 269 200 cancer deaths in 2022; corresponding age-standardized rates (world) fall 6% to 126.9 deaths/100 000 in men and 4% to 80.2/100 000 women since 2017. Male lung cancer is expected to fall 10% reaching 30.9/100 000. The rise in female lung cancer mortality slowed (+2% to 13.8/100 000). We estimated 369 000 (23%) avoided deaths in 2022 alone and a total of 5 394 000 (12%) deaths since the peak rate in 1988. Stomach, colorectal, breast and prostate cancers showed substantial declines, between 5% and 16% over the past 5 years. Pancreatic cancer remained stable in men (8.1/100 000) and rose 3% in women (5.9/100 000), becoming the third cause of cancer mortality in the EU (87 300 deaths), overtaking breast cancer (86 300 deaths). The fall in uterine cancers slowed down (-4%) to 4.7/100 000. Bladder cancer fell 9% in men, but was stable in women. Leukaemias fell more than 10%. Ovarian cancer mortality declined over the past decade in all considered countries. EU predicted rates were 4.3/100 000 (-13%) all ages, 1.2/100 000 (-26%) at 20-49, 15.3/100 000 (-11%) at 50-69 and 32.3/100 000 (-11%) at 70-79 years. CONCLUSIONS: We predicted additional declines in cancer mortality rates for 2022. The slowdown in female lung cancer mortality reflects some levelling of smoking in women. Favourable ovarian cancer trends are likely to continue and are largely attributable to the spreading oral contraceptive use and some impact of improved diagnosis and management.

Circadian and chemotherapy-related changes in urinary modified nucleosides excretion in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer.

Urinary levels of modified nucleosides reflect nucleic acids turnover and can serve as non-invasive biomarkers for monitoring tumour circadian dynamics, and treatment responses in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer. In 39 patients, median overnight urinary excretion of LC-HRMS determinations of pseudouridine, was ~ tenfold as large as those of 1-methylguanosine, 1-methyladenosine, or 4-acetylcytidine, and ~ 100-fold as large as those of adenosine and cytidine. An increase in any nucleoside excretion after chemotherapy anticipated plasma carcinoembryonic antigen progression 1-2 months later and was associated with poor survival. Ten fractionated urines were collected over 2-days in 29 patients. The median value of the rhythm-adjusted mean of urinary nucleoside excretion varied from 64.3 for pseudouridine down to 0.61 for cytidine. The rhythm amplitudes relative to the 24-h mean of 6 nucleoside excretions were associated with rest duration, supporting a tight link between nucleosides turnover and the rest-activity rhythm. Moreover, the amplitude of the 1-methylguanosine rhythm was correlated with the rest-activity dichotomy index, a significant predictor of survival outcome in prior studies. In conclusion, urinary excretion dynamics of modified nucleosides appeared useful for the characterization of the circadian control of cellular proliferation and for tracking early responses to treatments in colorectal cancer patients.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2021 with focus on pancreatic and female lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: We predicted cancer mortality statistics for 2021 for the European Union (EU) and its five most populous countries plus the UK. We also focused on pancreatic cancer and female lung cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We obtained cancer death certifications and population data from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases for 1970-2015. We predicted numbers of deaths and age-standardised (world population) rates for 2021 for total cancers and 10 major cancer sites, using a joinpoint regression model. We calculated the number of avoided deaths over the period 1989-2021. RESULTS: We predicted 1 267 000 cancer deaths for 2021 in the EU, corresponding to age-standardised rates of 130.4/100 000 men (-6.6% since 2015) and 81.0/100 000 for women (-4.5%). We estimated further falls in male lung cancer rates, but still trending upward in women by +6.5%, reaching 14.5/100 000 in 2021. The breast cancer predicted rate in the EU was 13.3/100 000 (-7.8%). The rates for stomach and leukaemias in both sexes and for bladder in males are predicted to fall by >10%; trends for other cancer sites were also favourable, except for the pancreas, which showed stable patterns in both sexes, with predicted rates of 8.1/100 000 in men and 5.6/100 000 in women. Rates for pancreatic cancer in EU men aged 25-49 and 50-64 years declined, respectively, by 10% and 1.8%, while for those aged 65+ years increased by 1.3%. Rates fell for young women only (-3.4%). Over 1989-2021, about 5 million cancer deaths were avoided in the EU27 compared with peak rates in 1988. CONCLUSION: Overall cancer mortality continues to fall in both sexes. However, specific focus is needed on pancreatic cancer, which shows a sizeable decline for young men only. Tobacco control remains a priority for the prevention of pancreatic and other tobacco-related cancers, which account for one-third of the total EU cancer deaths, especially in women, who showed less favourable trends.

Characterization of the vertical evolution of the three-dimensional turbulence for fatigue design of tidal turbines.

A system of two coupled four-beam acoustic Doppler current profilers was used to collect turbulence measurements over a 36-h period at a highly energetic tidal energy site in Alderney Race. This system enables the evaluation of the six components of the Reynolds stress tensor throughout a large proportion of the water column. The present study provides mean vertical profiles of the velocity, the turbulence intensity and the integral lengthscale along the streamwise, spanwise and vertical direction of the tidal current. Based on our results and considering a tidal-stream energy convertor (TEC) aligned with the current main direction, the main elements of turbulence prone to affect the structure (material fatigue) and to alter power generation would likely be: (i) the streamwise turbulence intensity (Ix), (ii) the shear stress, [Formula: see text], (iii) the normal stress, [Formula: see text] and (iv) the vertical integral lengthscale (Lz). The streamwise turbulence intensity, (Ix), was found to be higher than that estimated at other tidal energy sites across the world for similar height above bottom. Along the vertical direction, the length (Lz) of the large-scale turbulence eddies was found to be equivalent to the rotor diameter of the TEC Sabella D10. It is considered that the turbulence metrics presented in this paper will be valuable for TECs designers, helping them optimize their designs as well as improve loading prediction through the lifetime of the machines. This article is part of the theme issue 'New insights on tidal dynamics and tidal energy harvesting in the Alderney Race'.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2020 with a focus on prostate cancer.

BACKGROUND: Current cancer mortality figures are important for disease management and resource allocation. We estimated mortality counts and rates for 2020 in the European Union (EU) and for its six most populous countries. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We obtained cancer death certification and population data from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases for 1970-2015. We estimated projections to 2020 for 10 major cancer sites plus all neoplasms and calculated the number of avoided deaths over 1989-2020. RESULTS: Total cancer mortality rates in the EU are predicted to decline reaching 130.1/100 000 men (-5.4% since 2015) and 82.2 in women (-4.1%) in 2020. The predicted number of deaths will increase by 4.7% reaching 1 428 800 in 2020. In women, the upward lung cancer trend is predicted to continue with a rate in 2020 of 15.1/100 000 (higher than that for breast cancer, 13.5) while in men we predicted further falls. Pancreatic cancer rates are also increasing in women (+1.2%) but decreasing in men (-1.9%). In the EU, the prostate cancer predicted rate is 10.0/100 000, declining by 7.1% since 2015; decreases for this neoplasm are ∼8% at age 45-64, 14% at 65-74 and 75-84, and 6% at 85 and over. Poland is the only country with an increasing prostate cancer trend (+18%). Mortality rates for other cancers are predicted to decline further. Over 1989-2020, we estimated over 5 million avoided total cancer deaths and over 400 000 for prostate cancer. CONCLUSION: Cancer mortality predictions for 2020 in the EU are favourable with a greater decline in men. The number of deaths continue to rise due to population ageing. Due to the persistent amount of predicted lung (and other tobacco-related) cancer deaths, tobacco control remains a public health priority, especially for women. Favourable trends for prostate cancer are largely attributable to continuing therapeutic improvements along with early diagnosis.

Cancer mortality in Europe in 2015 and an overview of trends since 1990.

BACKGROUND: Cancer mortality in Europe has been decreasing since the late 1980s or 1990s in some countries with different patterns in many areas. In this study, we updated trends in cancer mortality in Europe. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We extracted data from the World Health Organization mortality database for 24 cancer sites, 36 European countries and the European Union (EU) as a whole over the 1990-2017 period. We computed age-standardized death rates per 100 000 person-years, and we carried out a joinpoint regression analysis of mortality trends from all cancers and selected major neoplasms. The estimated annual percent change (APC) for each identified linear segment, and the weighted average APC (AAPC) over the entire study period were provided as summary measures of the changes in rates over the time period. RESULTS: In 2015, the age-standardized mortality rates from all cancers in the EU were 137.5 deaths per 100 000 in men and 85.7 in women. Eastern European countries showed the highest rates with values over 150 deaths per 100 000 in men and over 100 deaths per 100 000 in women. Mortality from all cancers in the EU declined annually by 1.5% in men since 2006 and by 0.8% in women since 2007. Most cancer sites showed decreasing trends, with steady declines over the whole period for cancers of stomach, intestines, lung in men, breast and prostate. Unfavourable mortality trends persisted for cancers of liver, lung in women, pancreas, besides skin and kidney in men. CONCLUSIONS: The downward trends in total cancer mortality in Europe still continue over the last decade. However, the trends were less favourable in most eastern European countries. Tobacco control in men (but not in women), improvements in diagnosis and therapy were the main underlying factors of these trends.