RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: South Central Strategic Health Authority [SHA], with a population of four million, is one of 10 regions of England with responsibility for workforce planning. AIM: To explore future scenarios for the use of the skill mix within the dental team to inform the commissioning of dental therapy training. METHOD: Data on population demography, oral health needs and demands, dental workforce, activity and dental utilisation were used to create demand (needs-informed) and supply models. Population trends and changing oral health needs and dental service uptake were included in the demand model. Linear programming was used to obtain the optimal make-up of the dental team. Based on the optimal scenario, workforce volumes and costs were examined across a range of scenarios up to 2013. RESULTS: Baseline levels of dental therapists were low and estimated as only achieving 10-20% of the current potential job competency. The optimal exploratory scenario in terms of costs and volume of staff was based on dental therapists working full time and providing 70% of routine care that is within their current job competency; this scenario required 483 therapists by 2013, a figure that appeared achievable. Increasing the level of job competency provided by therapists revealed potentially higher benefits in terms of reduced cost and requiring fewer dentists. CONCLUSION: The findings suggest that dental therapists can play a more significant role in the provision of primary dental care, both currently and in future; they also highlight the need for health services to routinely collect data that can inform workforce analysis and planning.