Determinants and predictors of dengue infection in Mexico.

A national serosurvey was conducted in Mexico from March to October 1986 to identify predictors of dengue transmission and target areas at high risk of severe annual epidemics. A total of 3,408 households in 70 localities with populations less than 50,000 were randomly sampled, and serology was obtained from one subject under age 25 years in each household. When comparing exposure and infection frequencies across the 70 communities, the authors found that median temperature during the rainy season was the strongest predictor of dengue infection, with an adjusted fourfold risk in the comparison of 30 degrees C with 17 degrees C. High temperatures increase vector efficiency by reducing the period of viral replication in mosquitoes. The proportion of houses in a community with larva on the premises was significantly associated with the community proportion infected (odds ratio (OR)adj = 1.9; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.4-2.5), as was the proportion of households with uncovered water containers present (ORadj = 1.9; 95% CI 1.4-2.7). Because these factors have effects beyond the individual household and subjects infected from them create a risk for other subjects, both analyses of effects and organization of control efforts must be at the community level. A predictive model was constructed using the community level risk factors to classify communities as being at high, medium, or low risk of experiencing an epidemic; 57% of these communities were correctly classified using this model.

[Direct and indirect effects of vaccines: an annotation on the estimation of the vaccine efficacy from outbreaks caused by acute infection agents such as measles]. / Efectos directos e indirectos de las vacunas: una anotación sobre la estimación de la eficacia vacunal a partir de brotes por agentes de infecciones agudas como sarampión.

A good measure of the efficacy of vaccines should be based on an index that standardizes the exposure to infection of those who have been immunized and those who have not. In addition, the measure should not be influenced by indirect effects. In the case of outbreaks directly transmitted agents that cause acute infections diseases, the household secondary rates of attack are the best indicator of vaccine efficacy provided that the data are collected at the household level. If the data are not collected in this manner, the best indicator will be the estimated probability of transmission, even though this estimator and its meaning less obvious than the secondary attack of rate. Other strategies to estimate the efficacy of an immunization are more appropriate for situations that are more complex than outbreaks caused by acute infectious agents.