RESUMEN
Dynamics of the mortality and the mortality radiation risks among male emergency workers of 1986-1987 years of entrance to the Chernobyl zone is analyzed. The average dose of external gamma-exposure for this cohort equals 128 mGy. The size of the cohort at the beginning of the follow-up in 1992 was 47820 persons. For the follow-up period 1992-2006 statistically significant radiation risks of death rates have been estimated: for the mortality from all causes, the excess relative risk per Gy (ERR/Gy) equals 0.42 with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) (0.14-0.72); for the mortality from solid cancers ERR/Gy = 0.74, 95% CI (0.03-1.76); and for the mortality from the circulatory system diseases ERR/Gy = 1.01, 95% CI (0.51-1.57). Based on these estimates the risk groups were ranked among all Russian emergency workers (160 thousand persons): the group of the potential radiation risk with doses more than 150 mGy (33488 persons) and the group of the high radiation risk with doses more than 240 mGy (6054 persons).
Asunto(s)
Accidente Nuclear de Chernóbil , Rayos gamma/efectos adversos , Exposición Profesional/efectos adversos , Traumatismos por Radiación/mortalidad , Adolescente , Adulto , Causas de Muerte , Estudios de Cohortes , Relación Dosis-Respuesta en la Radiación , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Mortalidad/tendencias , Exposición Profesional/análisis , Dosis de Radiación , Estudios Retrospectivos , Medición de Riesgo , Federación de Rusia , Ucrania , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
The influence of heterogeneity in individual radiosensitivity on estimation of ageing using survival curve is considered. Quadratic deviation of the rate of ageing from the true value in estimated by imitation modeling techniques. The Gompertz model for spontaneous mortality and gamma-frailty model for heterogeneity are used. Simulation performed at different values of radiation effect and heterogeneity variance. It is shown that inclusion heterogeneity in the model is not efficient for large values of heterogeneity variance. For moderate values of heterogeneity variance model with heterogeneity produces more accurate results in comparison with the model without heterogeneity.
Asunto(s)
Envejecimiento/genética , Envejecimiento/efectos de la radiación , Modelos Biológicos , Tolerancia a Radiación/genética , Adulto , Factores de Edad , Variación Genética , Humanos , Análisis de Regresión , Procesos EstocásticosRESUMEN
A vast amount of research articles devoted to the increase in childhood thyroid cancer incidence in the most contaminated by radionuclides territories of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine affected by the Chernobyl accident were published recent years. However, the amount of research studies of thyroid cancer incidence among the Chernobyl emergency workers (liquidators) is quite scanty. In the article results of the study of thyroid cancer incidence in the cohort of the Chernobyl liquidators (103427 persons) residing in 6 administrative regions of Russia (North-West, Volgo-Vyatsky, Central-Chernozemny, Povolzhsky, North-Caucasus and Urals) are described and discussed. For the period 1986-2003 eighty seven cases of thyroid cancer were detected in the cohort. Statistically significant excess of the incidence among liquidators over baseline incidence, SIR = 3.39 (95% CI: 2.73; 4.16), among men of Russia has been found. The highest thyroid cancer incidence (SIR = 6.49) was registered among liquidators who had been involved in mitigation works during April-July 1986. At the same time no statistically significant relationship between the incidence rate and external radiation dose, ERR = 1.68 (95% CI: -0.95; 6.46), was detected.
Asunto(s)
Contaminantes Radiactivos del Aire , Accidente Nuclear de Chernóbil , Exposición Profesional , Neoplasias de la Tiroides/epidemiología , Femenino , Estudios de Seguimiento , Humanos , Masculino , Federación de Rusia/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
The work focuses on the results of the analysis of the cancer incidence among the Chernobyl emergency workers residing in Russia during 1991-2001. The analysis is based on the data for the cohort of male emergency workers from 6 regions of Russia including 55718 persons with documented external radiation doses in the range of 0.001-0.3 Gy who worked within the 30-km zone in 1986-1987. The mean age at exposure for these persons was 34.8 years old and the mean external radiation dose 0.13 Gy. In this cohort 1370 cases of solid cancer were diagnosed. Three follow-up periods were considered: 1991-1995, 1996-2001 and 1991-2001. The second follow-up period was chosen to allow for a minimum latency period of 10 years. Risk assessments were performed for two control groups: the first control group ("external") represented incidence rates for corresponding ages in Russia in general and the second control group ("internal") consisted of emergency workers. The estimated standardized incidence ratio (SIR) is in good agreement with that of the control within 95% CI. The values of the excess relative risk per unit dose 1 Gy (ERR/Gy) for solid malignant neoplasms have been estimated to be 0.33 (95% CI: -0.39, 1.22) (internal control) for the follow-up period 1991-2001 and 0.19 (95% CI: -0.66, 1.27) for 1996-2001. The analysis of cancer morbidity was carried out for the cohort of 29003 emergency workers who took part in liquidation of the consequences of the Chernobyl accident from 26 April 1986 to 25 April 1987. It was shown that the excess relative risk of cancer deaths per unit dose 1 Sv (ERR/Sv) is equal to 1.52 (95% CI: 0.20, 2.85).
Asunto(s)
Accidente Nuclear de Chernóbil , Neoplasias Inducidas por Radiación/epidemiología , Adulto , Estudios de Cohortes , Relación Dosis-Respuesta en la Radiación , Humanos , Incidencia , Masculino , Morbilidad , Neoplasias Inducidas por Radiación/mortalidad , Exposición Profesional , Medición de Riesgo , Federación de Rusia/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
The work concerns the assessment of radiation risks for non-cancer diseases of circulatory system among the Chernobyl liquidators. The medical and dosimetric data from Russian National Medical and Dosimetric Registry were used. The cohort data from 1986 to 2000 years of 61017 liquidators are discussed. Radiation risks are established for the cerebrovascular diseases and for the essential hypertension the significant. ERR =0.45/Gy, with 95% CI = (0.11; 0.80) for the cerebrovascular diseases and ERR = 0.36/Gy, with 95% CI = (0.005; 0.71) for the essential hypertension. It approves the results which were established by authors for the similar cohort in 1986-1996. The cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) are considered in greater details. The significant heterogeneity of the radiation risks by working time in Chernobyl zone is shown for the first time. ERR = 0.89/Gy for the working time less then 6 weeks, and ERR = 0.39/Gy in average for all periods of working in the zone. Among the liquidators entered Chernobyl zone during the first year after the accident (29003 liquidators), the CVD's risk group consists of persons accumulated more then 150 mGy from external sources in less, then 6 weeks (RR = 1.18 with 95% CI = (1.00; 1.40)). The significant CVD's risk from averaged dose rate was defined for external doses greater then 150 mGy (ERR for 100 mGy/day = 2.17, with 95% CI = (0.64; 3.69)).
Asunto(s)
Trastornos Cerebrovasculares/etiología , Accidente Nuclear de Chernóbil , Hipertensión/etiología , Traumatismos por Radiación/etiología , Liberación de Radiactividad Peligrosa , Adolescente , Adulto , Estudios de Cohortes , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Dosis de Radiación , Radiación Ionizante , Medición de Riesgo , Factores de RiesgoRESUMEN
The article represents data on distribution of liquidators in Russian State Medical Dosimetry Register according to account categories, residing territories (regions of Russia), age, sex, dose groups, coverage by medical examinations and health groups. During 1991-1996 the liquidators demonstrated higher occurrence of endocrine, neurologic and sensory, circulatory, digestive and malignant diseases.