Baby bump? Birth month, family income, and early childhood development.

Federal and state laws in the U.S. provide families with babies born just before the end of the year with thousands of dollars in tax savings. Because this income windfall is realized during the first few months of a newborn's life, we assess whether babies born in December experience developmental advantages in early childhood compared to those born right after the New Year. Using data from the Child Development Supplement of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and the Children of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, we implement a regression discontinuity design that exploits variation in birth timing. We first illustrate that the tax savings received by families with end of year babies are substantial. We then show that while children born in December have a weight disadvantage at birth compared to those born in January, they have an average weight-gain advantage of between 0.7 and 1.5 pounds (0.08-0.17 standard deviations) during subsequent follow-up interviews. We also find that end-of-year babies reach early developmental milestones faster, but exhibit no advantage in memory, word recognition, or applied problem solving. This end-of-year birth developmental advantage is consistent with the identified tax savings from end-of-year births.

Allergy test: Seasonal allergens and performance in school.

Seasonal pollen allergies affect approximately 1 in 5 school age children. Clinical research has established that these allergies result in large and consistent decrements in cognitive functioning, problem solving ability and speed, focus and energy. However, compared to air pollution, the impact of pollen and seasonal allergies on achievement in schools has received less attention from economists. Here, I use data on daily pollen counts merged with school district data to assess whether variation in the airborne pollen that induces seasonal allergies is associated with performance on state reading and math assessments. I find substantial and robust effects: A one standard deviation in ambient pollen levels reduces the percent of 3rd graders passing ELA assessments by between 0.2 and 0.3 standard deviations, and math assessments by between about 0.3 and 0.4 standard deviations. I discuss the empirical limitations as well as policy implications of this reduced-form estimate of pollen levels in a community setting.

A cure for crime? Psycho-pharmaceuticals and crime trends.

In this paper we consider possible links between the diffusion of new pharmaceuticals used for treating mental illness and crime rates. We describe recent trends in crime and review the evidence showing that mental illness is a clear risk factor both for criminal behavior and victimization. We summarize the development of a number of new pharmaceutical therapies for the treatment of mental illness that came into wide use during the "great American crime decline." We examine limited international data, as well as more detailed American data, to assess the relationship between rates of prescriptions of psychotropic drugs and crime rates, while controlling for other factors that may explain trends in crime rates. Using state-level variation in the rates that various drug therapies disperse within populations to identify impacts on crime rates, we find some evidence that the expansion of psychiatric drugs is associated with decreased violent crime rates, but not property crime rates. We find no robust impacts on homicide rates and no effects on arrest rates. Further, the magnitudes of the estimated effects of expanded drug treatment on violent crime are small. Our estimates imply that about 5 percent of the decline in crime during the period of our study was due to expanded mental health treatment.

The STEM Pipeline: The Role of Summer Research Experience in Minority Students' Ph.D. Aspirations.

Practical research experience has been seen as an important tool to enhance learning in STEM fields and shape commitment to science careers. Indeed, this was a prominent recommendation of the Boyer Commission. Further, there is evidence this is especially important for minority students. In this paper, we examine the role of practical research experience during the summer for talented minority undergraduates in STEM fields. We focus on the link between summer research and STEM Ph.D. program matriculation. We examine evidence on this question using detailed data on students participating in the Meyerhoff Scholarship Program over a 14 year period at the University of Maryland Baltimore County. Our results provide evidence of strong positive effects of summer research on participation in STEM Ph.D. programs. Further, we show that the effects of summer research vary with the frequency and timing of these experiences. The evidence that educational strategies such as summer research experiences improve academic outcomes of minorities is vital, given concern about the science pipeline in the U.S. and the continuing growth in the racial/ethnic diversity of the college-age population.

Anti-depressants and suicide.

Suicide takes the lives of around a million people each year, most of whom suffer from depression. In recent years there has been growing controversy about whether one of the best-selling anti-depressants - selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) - increases or decreases the risk of completed suicide. Randomized clinical trials are not informative in this application because of small samples and other problems. We present what we believe are the most scientifically credible estimates to date on how SSRI sales affect suicide mortality using data from 26 countries for up to 25 years. We exploit just the variation in SSRI sales that can be explained by institutional differences in how drugs are regulated, priced, and distributed, as reflected by the sales growth of new drugs more generally. We find an increase in SSRI sales of 1 pill per capita (12% of 2000 sales levels) reduces suicide by 5%.

Anti-depressants, suicide, and drug regulation.

Policymakers are increasingly concerned that a relatively new class of anti-depressant drugs, selective serotonin re-uptake inhibitors (SSRI), may increase the risk of suicide for at least some patients, particularly children. Prior randomized trials are not informative on this question because of small sample sizes and other limitations. Using variation across countries over time in SSRI sales and suicide, we find that an increase of one pill per capita (a 13 percent increase over 1999 levels) is associated with a 2.5 percent reduction in suicide rates, a relationship that is more pronounced for adults than for children. Our findings suggest that expanding access to SSRIs for adults may be a cost-effective way to save lives, although policymakers are right to remain cautious about pediatric use of SSRIs.

Estimating earnings losses due to mental illness: a quantile regression approach.

BACKGROUND: The ability of workers to remain productive and sustain earnings when afflicted with mental illness depends importantly on access to appropriate treatment and on flexibility and support from employers. In the United States there is substantial variation in access to health care and sick leave and other employment flexibilities across the earnings distribution. Consequently, a worker's ability to work and how much his/her earnings are impeded likely depend upon his/her position in the earnings distribution. Because of this, focusing on average earnings losses may provide insufficient information on the impact of mental illness in the labor market. AIMS: In this paper, we examine the effects of mental illness on earnings by recognizing that effects could vary across the distribution of earnings. METHODS: Using data from the National Comorbidity Survey, we employ a quantile regression estimator to identify the effects at key points in the earnings distribution. RESULTS: We find that earnings effects vary importantly across the distribution. While average effects are often not large, mental illness more commonly imposes earnings losses at the lower tail of the distribution, especially for women. In only one case do we find an illness to have negative effects across the distribution. IMPLICATIONS: Mental illness can have larger negative impacts on economic outcomes than previously estimated, even if those effects are not uniform. Consequently, researchers and policy makers alike should not be placated by findings that mean earnings effects are relatively small. Such estimates miss important features of how and where mental illness is associated with real economic losses for the ill.

Prevalence and patterns of major depressive disorder in the United States labor force.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS OF THE STUDY: In this paper, we identify the 12-month and lifetime prevalence of major depressive disorder in and out of the labor force, and among the employed and unemployed. We examine whether prevalence by labor force and employment status varies by gender and over the life cycle. Finally, we examine whether people can "recover" from depression with time by identifying patterns of labor force participation and employment as time since most recent episode passes. METHODS: We examine data collected as part of the National Comorbidity Survey, a survey representative of the population of the United States designed to identify the prevalence of major mental illnesses. The National Comorbidity Study identified cases of major depression via the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Using these data, we estimate univariate and bivariate frequency distributions of major depressive disorder. We also estimate a set of multivariate models to identify the effect of a variety of dimensions of major depression on the propensity to participate in the labor force, and be employed if participating. RESULTS: Lifetime and 12-month prevalence rates of depression are similar in and out of the labor force. Within the labor force, however, depression is strongly associated with unemployment. The negative relationship between depressive disorder and employment is particularly strong for middle age workers. Depression and the number of depressive episodes have a differing pattern of effects on labor market outcomes for men and women. We find evidence that labor force participation and employment rates for people with a history of depression increase significantly over time in the absence of additional depressive episodes. DISCUSSION: Labor market status represents an important dimension along which prevalence of major depression varies. The relationship between depression and employment status is particularly strong for middle aged persons, but becomes weaker as time passes since the last depressive episode. Continued exploration of the association between work (or lack of work) and depression may ultimately help in the prediction, treatment and assessment of the illness. IMPLICASIONS FOR PRACTICE AND POLICY: These results present a basic set of facts about the relationship between major depressive disorder and labor market outcomes. We have not, however, attempted to sort out the complexities of this relationship here. These complexities arise at almost every turn. For instance, the high level of prevalence of depression among the unemployed may be due to the possibility that the stresses associated with unemployment trigger depressive episodes or to the possibility that workers who are depressed are more likely to be fired or quit. IMPLICATIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH: Our continuing research attempts to address these problems. Understanding when and how depression affects labor market outcomes and when and how labor market outcomes affect depression is an important endeavor for those interested in treating the disease and understanding its consequences.