Multidecadal vegetation transformations of a New Mexico ponderosa pine landscape after severe fires and aerial seeding.

Wildfires and climate change increasingly are transforming vegetation composition and structure, and postfire management may have long-lasting effects on ecosystem reorganization. Postfire aerial seeding treatments are commonly used to reduce runoff and soil erosion, but little is known about how seeding treatments affect native vegetation recovery over long periods of time, particularly in type-converted forests that have been dramatically transformed by the effects of repeated, high-severity fire. In this study, we analyze and report on a rare long-term (23-year) dataset that documents vegetation dynamics following a 1996 post-fire aerial seeding treatment and a subsequent 2011 high-severity reburn in a dry conifer landscape of northern New Mexico, USA. Repeated surveys between 1997 and 2019 of 49 permanent transects were analyzed for differences in vegetation cover, richness, and diversity between seeded and unseeded areas, and to characterize the development of seeded and unseeded vegetation communities through time and across gradients of burn severity, elevation, and soil-available water capacity. Seeded plots showed no significant difference in bare ground cover during the initial years postfire relative to unseeded plots. Postfire seeding led to a clear and sustained divergence in herbaceous community composition. Seeded plots had a much higher cover of non-native graminoids, primarily Bromus inermis, a likely contaminant in the seed mix. High-severity reburning of all plots in 2011 reduced native graminoid cover by half at seeded plots compared with both prefire levels and with plots that were unseeded following the initial 1996 fire. In addition, higher fire severity was associated with increased non-native graminoid cover and reduced native graminoid cover. This study documents fire-driven ecosystem transformation from conifer forest into a shrub-and-grass-dominated system, reinforced by aerial seeding of grasses and high-severity reburning. This unique long-term dataset illustrates that post-fire seeding carries significant risks of unwanted non-native species invasions that persist through subsequent fires-thus alternative postfire management actions merit consideration to better support native ecosystem resilience given emergent climate change and increasing disturbance. This study also highlights the importance of long-term monitoring of postfire vegetation dynamics, as short-term assessments miss key elements of complex ecosystem responses to fire and postfire management actions.

Indigenous fire management and cross-scale fire-climate relationships in the Southwest United States from 1500 to 1900 CE.

Prior research suggests that Indigenous fire management buffers climate influences on wildfires, but it is unclear whether these benefits accrue across geographic scales. We use a network of 4824 fire-scarred trees in Southwest United States dry forests to analyze up to 400 years of fire-climate relationships at local, landscape, and regional scales for traditional territories of three different Indigenous cultures. Comparison of fire-year and prior climate conditions for periods of intensive cultural use and less-intensive use indicates that Indigenous fire management weakened fire-climate relationships at local and landscape scales. This effect did not scale up across the entire region because land use was spatially and temporally heterogeneous at that scale. Restoring or emulating Indigenous fire practices could buffer climate impacts at local scales but would need to be repeatedly implemented at broad scales for broader regional benefits.

Joint effects of climate, tree size, and year on annual tree growth derived from tree-ring records of ten globally distributed forests.

Tree rings provide an invaluable long-term record for understanding how climate and other drivers shape tree growth and forest productivity. However, conventional tree-ring analysis methods were not designed to simultaneously test effects of climate, tree size, and other drivers on individual growth. This has limited the potential to test ecologically relevant hypotheses on tree growth sensitivity to environmental drivers and their interactions with tree size. Here, we develop and apply a new method to simultaneously model nonlinear effects of primary climate drivers, reconstructed tree diameter at breast height (DBH), and calendar year in generalized least squares models that account for the temporal autocorrelation inherent to each individual tree's growth. We analyze data from 3811 trees representing 40 species at 10 globally distributed sites, showing that precipitation, temperature, DBH, and calendar year have additively, and often interactively, influenced annual growth over the past 120 years. Growth responses were predominantly positive to precipitation (usually over ≥3-month seasonal windows) and negative to temperature (usually maximum temperature, over ≤3-month seasonal windows), with concave-down responses in 63% of relationships. Climate sensitivity commonly varied with DBH (45% of cases tested), with larger trees usually more sensitive. Trends in ring width at small DBH were linked to the light environment under which trees established, but basal area or biomass increments consistently reached maxima at intermediate DBH. Accounting for climate and DBH, growth rate declined over time for 92% of species in secondary or disturbed stands, whereas growth trends were mixed in older forests. These trends were largely attributable to stand dynamics as cohorts and stands age, which remain challenging to disentangle from global change drivers. By providing a parsimonious approach for characterizing multiple interacting drivers of tree growth, our method reveals a more complete picture of the factors influencing growth than has previously been possible.

Native American fire management at an ancient wildland-urban interface in the Southwest United States.

The intersection of expanding human development and wildland landscapes-the "wildland-urban interface" or WUI-is one of the most vexing contexts for fire management because it involves complex interacting systems of people and nature. Here, we document the dynamism and stability of an ancient WUI that was apparently sustainable for more than 500 y. We combine ethnography, archaeology, paleoecology, and ecological modeling to infer intensive wood and fire use by Native American ancestors of Jemez Pueblo and the consequences on fire size, fire-climate relationships, and fire intensity. Initial settlement of northern New Mexico by Jemez farmers increased fire activity within an already dynamic landscape that experienced frequent fires. Wood harvesting for domestic fuel and architectural uses and abundant, small, patchy fires created a landscape that burned often but only rarely burned extensively. Depopulation of the forested landscape due to Spanish colonial impacts resulted in a rebound of fuels accompanied by the return of widely spreading, frequent surface fires. The sequence of more than 500 y of perennial small fires and wood collecting followed by frequent "free-range" wildland surface fires made the landscape resistant to extreme fire behavior, even when climate was conducive and surface fires were large. The ancient Jemez WUI offers an alternative model for fire management in modern WUI in the western United States, and possibly other settings where local management of woody fuels through use (domestic wood collecting) coupled with small prescribed fires may make these communities both self-reliant and more resilient to wildfire hazards.

Wildfire-Driven Forest Conversion in Western North American Landscapes.

Changing disturbance regimes and climate can overcome forest ecosystem resilience. Following high-severity fire, forest recovery may be compromised by lack of tree seed sources, warmer and drier postfire climate, or short-interval reburning. A potential outcome of the loss of resilience is the conversion of the prefire forest to a different forest type or nonforest vegetation. Conversion implies major, extensive, and enduring changes in dominant species, life forms, or functions, with impacts on ecosystem services. In the present article, we synthesize a growing body of evidence of fire-driven conversion and our understanding of its causes across western North America. We assess our capacity to predict conversion and highlight important uncertainties. Increasing forest vulnerability to changing fire activity and climate compels shifts in management approaches, and we propose key themes for applied research coproduced by scientists and managers to support decision-making in an era when the prefire forest may not return.