Analysis of exacerbation rates in asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: example from the TRISTAN study.

Recurrent events in clinical trials have typically been analysed using either a multiple time-to-event method or a direct approach based on the distribution of the number of events. An area of application for these methods is exacerbation data from respiratory clinical trials. The different approaches to the analysis and the issues involved are illustrated for a large trial (n = 1465) in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). For exacerbation rates, clinical interest centres on a direct comparison of rates for each treatment which favours the distribution-based analysis, rather than a time-to-event approach. Poisson regression has often been employed and has recently been recommended as the appropriate method of analysis for COPD exacerbations but the key assumptions often appear unreasonable for this analysis. By contrast use of a negative binomial model which corresponds to assuming a separate Poisson parameter for each subject offers a more appealing approach. Non-parametric methods avoid some of the assumptions required by these models, but do not provide appropriate estimates of treatment effects because of the discrete and bounded nature of the data.

Dynamics of soil carbon during deglaciation of the laurentide ice sheet.

Deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet in North America was accompanied by sequestration of organic carbon in newly exposed soils. The greatest rate of land exposure occurred around 12,000 to 8,000 years ago, and the greatest increase in the rate of carbon sequestration by soils occurred from 8,000 to 4,000 years ago. Sequestration of carbon in deglaciated peat lands continues today, and a steady state has not been reached. The natural rate of carbon sequestration in soils, however, is small relative to the rate of anthropogenic carbon dioxide production.

Real-time landslide warning during heavy rainfall.

A real-time system for issuing warnings of landslides during major storms is being developed for the San Francisco Bay region, California. The system is based on empirical and theoretical relations between rainfall and landslide initiation, geologic determination of areas susceptible to landslides, real-time monitoring of a regional network of telemetering rain gages, and National Weather Service precipitation forecasts. This system was used to issue warnings during the storms of 12 to 21 February 1986, which produced 800 millimeters of rainfall in the region. Although analysis after the storms suggests that modifications and additional development are needed, the system successfully predicted the times of major landslide events. It could be used as a prototype for systems in other landslide-prone regions.

Anasazi solar marker: the use of a natural rockfall.

The midday "sun dagger" solstice and equinox marker on Fajada Butte in Chaco Canyon, New Mexico, is formed by three sandstone slabs that collimate sunlight onto two spiral petroglyphs. The slabs appear to be the result of a natuiral rockfall and not a construct of the Chacoan Anasazi. Although neither the rockfall nor the petroglyphs can be dated accurately, it is likely that the petroglyphs were designed after the rockfall by people who observed the details of the light pattern for several annual cycles.

Disasters as a necessary part of benefit-cost analyses.

Benefit-cost analyses for water projects generally have not included the expected costs (residual risk) of low-probability disasters such as dam failures, impoundment-induced earthquakes, and landslides. Analysis of the history of these types of events demonstrates that dam failures are not uncommon and that the probability of a reservoir-triggered earth-quake increases with increasing reservoir depth. Because the expected costs from such events can be significant and risk is project-specific, estimates should be made for each project. The cost of expected damage from a "high-risk" project in an urban area could be comparable to project benefits.