Adaptive steroid tapering impedes corticosteroid-free remissions compared to forced tapering in clinical trials of ulcerative colitis.

INTRODUCTION: It is unclear if steroid tapering protocols can impact clinical trial outcomes in ulcerative colitis (UC), particularly fixed versus adaptive steroid tapering. Fixed steroid tapering involves incremental dose decreases at prespecified intervals and adaptive steroid tapering utilizes investigator discretion as determined by the patient's response. METHODS: In this post-hoc analysis from six clinical trials of UC (VARSITY, ACT 1, PURSUIT, GEMINI1, OCTAVE and ULTRA2), responders to induction therapy with baseline corticosteroid use were considered as the primary population of interest. Adjustments were made to account for treat-through versus re-randomization designs and multivariate regression was performed to account for other potential confounding variables. The primary outcome was corticosteroid-free clinical remission (CR) at one-year and secondary outcomes were CR and endoscopic improvement. RESULTS: There was a total of 861 patients who had achieved clinical response after induction and were using corticosteroids. Within multivariate analysis, patients using adaptive steroid tapering regimens were less likely to achieve corticosteroid-free CR at one year (odds ratio [OR] 0.66 [95% CI 0.48-0.92], p=0.015) but had increased odds for achieving CR at one year (OR 1.9 [95% CI 1.43-2.52], p<0.001). The steroid tapering regimen was not associated with achievement of endoscopic improvement at one year. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with UC on corticosteroids in clinical trials, patients using adaptive steroid weaning regimens were less likely to achieve corticosteroid-free CR at one year but more likely to achieve CR at one year. Consideration should be given to implementing mandatory fixed steroid weaning protocols in future clinical trials of UC.

Environmental Factors Associated with Risk of Crohn's Disease Development in the Crohn's and Colitis Canada - Genetic, Environmental, Microbial Project.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: To date, it is unclear how environmental factors influence Crohn's disease (CD) risk and how they interact with biological processes. This study investigates the association between environmental exposures and CD risk and evaluates their association with pre-disease biomarkers. METHODS: We studied 4289 healthy first-degree relatives (FDRs) of patients with CD from the Crohn's and Colitis Canada - Genetic, Environmental, Microbial (CCC-GEM) project. Regression models identified environmental factors associated with future CD onset and their association with pre-disease biological factors, including altered intestinal permeability measured by urinary fractional excretion of lactulose to mannitol ratio (LMR); gut inflammation via fecal calprotectin (FCP) levels; and fecal microbiome composition through 16S rRNA sequencing. RESULTS: Over a 5.62-year median follow-up, 86 FDRs developed CD. Living with a dog between ages 5 and 15 (hazard ratio [HR], 0.62; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.40-0.96; P = .034), and living with a large family size in the first year of life (HR, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.21-0.85; P = .016) were associated with decreased CD risk, whereas having a bird at the time of recruitment (HR, 2.78; 95% CI, 1.36-5.68; P = .005) was associated with an increased CD risk. Furthermore, living with a dog was associated with reduced LMR, altered relative abundance of multiple bacterial genera, and increased Chao1 diversity, whereas bird owners had higher FCP levels. Large family during participants' first year of life was associated with altered microbiota composition without affecting FCP or LMR. CONCLUSION: This study identifies environmental variables associated with CD risk. These variables were also associated with altered barrier function, subclinical inflammation, and gut microbiome composition shifts, suggesting potential roles in CD pathogenesis.

Defining Endoscopic Remission in Crohn's Disease: MM-SES-CD and SES-CD Thresholds Associated With Low Risk of Disease Progression.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We assessed Modified Multiplier Simple Endoscopic Score for Crohn's Disease (MM-SES-CD) and Simple Endoscopic Score for Crohn's Disease (SES-CD) thresholds that are best associated with low likelihood of long-term disease progression. METHODS: Data from 61 patients with early Crohn's disease (CD) who participated in the CALM long-term extension study were used as the derivation cohort and validated using the McMaster inflammatory bowel disease database (n = 99). The primary outcome was disease progression (new internal fistula/abscess, stricture, perianal fistula or abscess, CD-related hospitalization or surgery) since the end of the CALM trial. Optimal MM-SES-CD and SES-CD thresholds were determined using the maximum Youden index. Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses compared threshold scores of remission definitions on disease progression. RESULTS: In the derivation cohort, based on the maximum Youden index, the optimal thresholds associated with a low likelihood of disease progression were MM-SES-CD <22.5 and SES-CD <4. A significantly greater proportion of patients with a MM-SES-CD ≥22.5 had disease progression as compared with patients in the derivation cohort with MM-SES-CD <22.5 (10/17 [58.8%] vs 3/44 [6.8%]; P < .001). Similarly, a significantly greater number of patients with SES-CD ≥ 4 had disease progression compared with those with a SES-CD <4 (11/25 [44.0%] vs 2/36 [5.6%]; P < .001). Compared with other clinical or endoscopic remission definitions, which demonstrated poor to fair accuracy, MM-SES-CD <22.5 performed the best for predicting disease progression (area under the curve = 0.81; 95% confidence interval, 0.68-0.94; P < .001). These thresholds were confirmed in the validation cohort. CONCLUSION: Achievement of MM-SES-CD <22.5 or SES-CD <4 in patients with ileocolonic or colonic CD is associated with low risk of disease progression and may be suitable targets in clinical trials and practice for endoscopic healing.

Delayed Ustekinumab and Adalimumab Responders Have Similar Outcomes as Early Responders in Biologic-Naïve Crohn's Disease.

INTRODUCTION: Differences in 1-year outcomes among early and delayed responders have been demonstrated with some therapies in ulcerative colitis. However, it is unclear whether similar differences exist in patients with Crohn's disease (CD) treated with biologic therapies. METHODS: This was a post hoc analysis of patient-level data from the SEAVUE clinical trial program. Ustekinumab-treated and adalimumab-treated patients with clinical response at week 8, defined as a reduction in Crohn's Disease Activity Index (CDAI) score of at least 100 points from baseline or CDAI score <150, were deemed early responders and their outcomes were compared with delayed responders (week 8 nonresponders who subsequently responded at week 16) and nonresponders (no response at week 8 or 16). The primary outcome assessed was clinical remission at week 56, defined as CDAI <150. RESULTS: A total of 373 participants (187 treated with ustekinumab and 186 treated with adalimumab) were included in this analysis. The overall rate of delayed clinical response was low in the SEAVUE clinical trial program (13.1%). No differences were observed for week 56 clinical remission among early vs delayed responders to ustekinumab or adalimumab nor were there significant differences for secondary outcomes assessed. Delayed responders to ustekinumab and adalimumab had a significant decline in C-reactive protein by week 8 when compared with nonresponders. DISCUSSION: Among patients with moderate-to-severe CD, early and delayed responders to adalimumab and ustekinumab have similar 1-year clinical outcomes. Biomarker decline can be observed through the initial 8 weeks of therapy in patients who will eventually be delayed responders, which may help differentiate from nonresponders.

Predicting Endoscopic Improvement in Ulcerative Colitis Using the Ulcerative Colitis Severity Index.

INTRODUCTION: We developed and internally validated a prognostic scoring index for ulcerative colitis (UC) patients that includes baseline patient-reported outcomes (PROs), biomarkers, endoscopy, and histology for achieving 1-year endoscopic improvement (EI). METHODS: This post hoc analysis included 644 patients treated with ustekinumab induction therapy. Data were randomly split to obtain a 70% training and 30% testing cohort. Multivariate analyses assessed baseline variables and those with P < .05 were assigned weights based on their relative prognostic value from logistic regression modeling for predicting 1-year EI (Mayo endoscopic score ≤1). A cutoff was obtained by calculating the maximum Youden index and validated in the testing cohort. RESULTS: Prior biologic failure, albumin <40 g/L, C-reactive protein >5 mg/L, Mayo stool frequency subscore, endoscopic erosions/ulcerations, and chronic histologic structural/architectural changes demonstrated significant associations with 1-year EI and were included in the final model. The Ulcerative Colitis Severity Index (UCSI) had acceptable discriminative ability for 1-year EI in the training (area under the curve [AUC], 0.78; 95% confidence interval, 0.70-0.86) and testing cohort (AUC, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.68-0.85). Compared with the UCSI, the Mayo Clinic score demonstrated poor accuracy (AUC, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.40-0.58) for predicting 1-year EI (P = .0006). The UCSI predicted 1-year endoscopic healing (Mayo endoscopic score = 0), clinical remission (total Mayo Clinic score ≤2 and no subscore >1), partial Mayo score remission <2, and 2-item Patient-Reported Outcome score (Mayo stool frequency and rectal bleeding subscore = 0) with significantly greater accuracy compared with the Mayo Clinic score. DISCUSSION: The UCSI is an internally validated prognostic scoring tool that accurately predicts 1-year EI at baseline among moderate-to-severe UC patients initiating therapy. Further validation with additional datasets is needed.

Predictors of histologic response to mepolizumab in pediatric eosinophilic esophagitis.

BACKGROUND: Eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE) is a chronic, allergic disease of the esophagus. Current treatment options are limited. One experimental therapy is antibodies against interleukin-5 (IL-5). However, it is unknown why some patients respond to anti-IL-5 treatment whereas others do not. We sought to delineate predictors of histologic response to anti-IL-5 therapy in pediatric EoE. METHODS: This post hoc analysis of a multicenter, double-blind clinical trial (ClinicalTrial.gov identifier: NCT00358449) evaluated mepolizumab for the treatment of EoE in pediatric patients. Predictors were assessed for their association with a histologic response at week 12 of treatment. A histologic response was defined as either <15 eosinophils per hpf or a reduction in peak eosinophil counts by ≥50%. Predictors on univariate analysis with P < 0.10 were included in multivariate logistic regression models. Statistical significance for multivariate comparisons was set at P < 0.05. RESULTS: Patients with a higher BMI were more likely to attain histologic response at week 12, defined as <15 eosinophils per hpf [aOR, 1.31; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.07-1.60; P = 0.008]. Higher BMI (aOR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.06-2.74; P = 0.029) and signs of exudate plaques on endoscopy (aOR, 18.30; 95% CI, 2.11-158.53; P = 0.008) were significant predictors of histologic response at week 12 where a histologic response was defined as a reduction in peak eosinophil counts by ≥50. CONCLUSION: Higher BMI and signs of exudative plaques on endoscopy may be predictors of histologic response in pediatric EoE patients treated with antibodies against IL-5. Further studies are needed to validate our findings.

Real-World Persistence of Ustekinumab in the Treatment of Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

INTRODUCTION: There is an urgent need to understand the long-term real-world effectiveness of ustekinumab (UST) in the treatment of Crohn's disease (CD), fistulizing CD (FCD), and ulcerative colitis (UC). Persistence on treatment is commonly used as a surrogate measure of real-world treatment response. This study aims to estimate the long-term real-world persistence of UST in adult patients with CD, FCD, and UC. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted in patients with CD, FCD, and UC treated with UST through a national patient support program in Canada. Treatment persistence was described using the Kaplan-Meier method, and the impact of patient characteristics on persistence was explored through stratified analyses and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Persistence rates for 8724 patients with CD were 82.9%, 71.4%, 64.1%, and 59.7% at 1, 2, 3, and 4 years, respectively. Similarly, persistence rates for 276 patients with FCD were 84.1%, 70.9%, 64.9%, and 63.1% at 1, 2, 3, and 4 years, respectively. Persistence rates for 1291 patients with UC were 76.5% at 1 year and 69.5% at 1.5 years. When stratified by prior IBD-indicated biologic experience, persistence was numerically higher in biologic-naïve patients across all disease cohorts. A Cox proportional hazards model confirmed that this difference was significant in patients with CD (hazard ratio: 0.72; confidence interval: [0.65-0.79]). CONCLUSIONS: This study estimated long-term persistence in a large population of patients with IBD. At 1 year, over three-fourths of patients remained on UST treatment in all disease cohorts, and over half of patients remained on treatment at 4 years in CD and FCD patients. Biologic-naïve status was significantly associated with higher persistence in patients with CD.

Inflammatory bowel disease is a term that refers to a group of disorders where the tissues of the gastrointestinal tract are chronically inflamed and may become damaged; it includes Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis. While there is no cure, treatments are available to help patients manage their disease. Patients must typically continue treatment to ensure ongoing control. As such, the length of time a patient continues using a specific treatment can be suggestive of its success in the real-world. Ustekinumab is a biologic therapy that is used to treat both Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis. Although ustekinumab has been evaluated in clinical trials, understanding how patients respond to treatment in the real world is valuable to physicians. This study was able to look at patients with inflammatory bowel disease who received treatment with ustekinumab through a patient support program in Canada and assess the length of time they continued treatment. After 1 year, over three-fourths of all patients with inflammatory bowel disease were still using ustekinumab; and after 4 years, more than half of patients with Crohn's disease were still using ustekinumab. This study was also able to look at whether certain factors affected the likelihood of a patient continuing treatment with ustekinumab. Patients that had never received a biologic therapy before were more likely to continue ustekinumab treatment than those who had received a different biologic therapy beforehand.

Gut Microbiome Composition Is Associated With Future Onset of Crohn's Disease in Healthy First-Degree Relatives.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The cause of Crohn's disease (CD) is unknown, but the current hypothesis is that microbial or environmental factors induce gut inflammation in genetically susceptible individuals, leading to chronic intestinal inflammation. Case-control studies of patients with CD have cataloged alterations in the gut microbiome composition; however, these studies fail to distinguish whether the altered gut microbiome composition is associated with initiation of CD or is the result of inflammation or drug treatment. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, 3483 healthy first-degree relatives (FDRs) of patients with CD were recruited to identify the gut microbiome composition that precedes the onset of CD and to what extent this composition predicts the risk of developing CD. We applied a machine learning approach to the analysis of the gut microbiome composition (based on 16S ribosomal RNA sequencing) to define a microbial signature that associates with future development of CD. The performance of the model was assessed in an independent validation cohort. RESULTS: In the validation cohort, the microbiome risk score (MRS) model yielded a hazard ratio of 2.24 (95% confidence interval, 1.03-4.84; P = .04), using the median of the MRS from the discovery cohort as the threshold. The MRS demonstrated a temporal validity by capturing individuals that developed CD up to 5 years before disease onset (area under the curve > 0.65). The 5 most important taxa contributing to the MRS included Ruminococcus torques, Blautia, Colidextribacter, an uncultured genus-level group from Oscillospiraceae, and Roseburia. CONCLUSION: This study is the first to demonstrate that gut microbiome composition is associated with future onset of CD and suggests that gut microbiome is a contributor in the pathogenesis of CD.

Delayed Ustekinumab Responders in Ulcerative Colitis Have Greater Inflammatory Burden but Similar Outcomes as Early Responders.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Differences in 1-year outcomes among early compared with delayed responders to vedolizumab have been shown in ulcerative colitis. However, it is unclear whether similar differences exist with ustekinumab, and what factors differentiate delayed responders from nonresponders. METHODS: This study was a post hoc analysis of patient-level data from the UNIFI clinical trial. Ustekinumab-treated patients with clinical response, defined as a reduction in total Mayo score of 30% or more and 3 or more points from baseline with a reduction in their rectal bleeding subscore of 1 or more or a rectal bleeding subscore of 1 or less, at week 8 were deemed early responders and their outcomes were compared with delayed responders (week 8 nonresponders who subsequently responded at week 16). The primary outcome assessed was 1-year clinical remission, defined as a total Mayo score of 2 or less and no subscore greater than 1. RESULTS: We included 642 ustekinumab-treated patients, including 321 (50%) early responders, 115 (17.9%) delayed responders, and 205 (32.1%) nonresponders. No differences were observed for 1-year clinical remission among early vs delayed responders (132 of 321 [41.1%] vs 40 of 115 [34.8%]; P = .233), or for other outcomes assessed regardless of induction dose. Compared with early responders, delayed responders had more severe baseline Mayo endoscopic disease (88 of 115 [76.5%] vs 206 of 321 [64.2%]; P = .015) and abnormal baseline C-reactive protein level greater than 3 mg/L (83 of 115 [72.2%] vs 183 of 321 [57%]; P = .004). Compared with nonresponders, delayed responders had a significant decrease in C-reactive protein level (F-value [degrees of freedom, mean squares] [4, 844]; P < .0001) and fecal calprotectin level (F[4, 818]; P < .0001) through week 16. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with early ustekinumab responders, delayed responders had a greater inflammatory burden at baseline. Early and delayed responders had similar 1-year outcomes. Biomarker decline observed in delayed responders can help differentiate them from nonresponders.

Comparative Efficacy of Infliximab Versus Tofacitinib for Inducing Remission in Biologic Naive Ulcerative Colitis: A Propensity Matched Study.

OBJECTIVE: In the absence of head-to-head clinical trials, indirect comparative studies are needed to help position therapies in ulcerative colitis (UC). We aimed to compare the efficacy of infliximab vs. tofacitinib for moderate-severe UC among biologic-naïve participants at post-induction. METHODS: This was a post-hoc analysis of patient-level data from four clinical trials including 659 biologic-naïve UC participants. We compared proportions of patients achieving week 8 clinical remission (CR), endoscopic improvement, and endoscopic remission. Clinical response at week 2 was also assessed. Multiple logistic regression models were adjusted for potential confounders identified as having an association with the outcome of interest on univariate analysis. Propensity scores were calculated to create a cohort of participants with similar distribution of baseline co-variates. RESULTS: Patients treated with infliximab had significantly greater odds of CR at week 8 compared to tofacitinib [88/242 (36.4%) vs. 100/417 (24.0%), aOR: 1.65 (95% CI 1.11-2.44), p = 0.013]. Endoscopic improvement at week 8 was also significantly greater among infliximab-treated patients [149/242 (61.6%) vs. 159/417 (38.1%), aOR: 2.12 (95% CI 1.45-3.10), p < 0.001]. Similar findings were observed with week 8 endoscopic remission [61/242 (25.2%) vs. 43/417 (10.3%); aOR: 2.72 (95% CI 1.66-4.46), p < 0.001]. A similar proportion of participants attained clinical response at week 2 [205/242 (84.7%) vs. 334/417 (80.1%), aOR: 1.48 (95% CI 0.93-2.37), p = 0.101]. Similar results were observed among the propensity score matched cohort. CONCLUSION: Based on the efficacy observed in this post-hoc analysis, consideration should be given to use of infliximab over tofacitinib for treatment of moderate to severe biologic-naïve UC. However, baseline characteristic mismatches persisted despite propensity score matching, and further studies are needed to confirm our findings.

Combined Histological and Endoscopic Endpoints at Post-induction Lack Additional Prognostic Value Compared with Endoscopic Improvement Alone in Ulcerative Colitis: A Post hoc Analysis of the VARSITY study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Evaluating histological outcomes in ulcerative colitis [UC] has become common in recent clinical trials. In this study, we explored the additional value of the combined endpoint of histo-endoscopic mucosal improvement [HEMI] compared with endoscopic improvement [EI] at post-induction [Week 14] and post-maintenance [1 year]. METHODS: This post hoc analysis included 620 UC participants with available data from the VARSITY trial. Participants achieving post-induction and post-maintenance HEMI [Mayo endoscopic subscore ≤1 and Geboes score <3.2] were compared across clinical outcomes, patient-reported outcomes [PROs], and inflammatory markers. Univariate analyses were performed to identify variables associated with the outcome of interest. Multivariate analyses included covariates with a p <0.05 on univariate analyses. RESULTS: Among the 468 patients with 1-year data available, a total of 166 [35.5%] attained HEMI and 209 [44.7%] attained EI at post-induction. No difference in achievement of clinical remission [CR] at 1 year was observed among those who attained post-induction HEMI vs EI (121/166 [72.9%] vs 147/209 [70.3%], p = 0.903). Similar findings were observed for the outcome of 1-year treatment failure (45/166 [27.1%] vs 55/209 [26.3%], p = 0.781). Patients who achieved HEMI at post-induction had lower total and partial Mayo scores and had the largest improvement from baseline. Faecal calprotectin and C-reactive protein [CRP] were also significantly lower among HEMI achievers at post-induction [p <0.001]. Similar findings were observed at post-maintenance. CONCLUSIONS: In this post hoc analysis, at post-induction, HEMI did not demonstrate additional prognostic value in predicting 1-year outcomes over EI. However, HEMI was associated with lower clinical disease activity at post-induction and at 1 year compared with endoscopic or histological outcomes in isolation.

Vedolizumab and Adalimumab in Biologic-Naïve Ulcerative Colitis: Comparison of Patient-Level Clinical Trial Data and VARSITY for Week 6 Clinical Remission.

BACKGROUND: Indirect treatment comparisons using patient-level data are increasing in popularity within inflammatory bowel disease research. We compared the efficacy of adalimumab and vedolizumab for biologic-naïve moderate-severe ulcerative colitis (UC) using indirect comparisons of phase 3 clinical trials and compared the results to the RCT VARSITY. DESIGN: Pooled analysis of patient-level data from 518 biologic-naïve patients with UC was performed using GEMINI-1 and ULTRA-1. Proportions of patients achieving week 6 clinical remission and clinical response were compared, and propensity score matching and multivariate logistic regression were used to account for potential confounders. These results were compared to those derived from VARSITY. RESULTS: A numerically greater proportion of vedolizumab-treated patients from GEMINI-1 achieved week 6 clinical remission compared to those treated with adalimumab [136/388 (35.1%) vs. 38/130 (29.2%)]. Similar findings were observed among the propensity score matched cohort [33/110 (30.0%) vs. 25/110 (22.7%), adjusted OR (aOR) 1.56 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.81-3.02), p = 0.187]. A similar magnitude for absolute difference in the proportions of patients achieving week 6 clinical remission was observed from VARSITY in vedolizumab compared to adalimumab [131/305 (43.0%) vs. 114/307 (37.1%), OR 1.27 (95% CI 0.92-1.76), p = 0.142]. CONCLUSIONS: In this post hoc analysis, a similar magnitude in the absolute difference of efficacy at week 6 among biologic-naïve patients was observed using indirect comparisons of phase 3 clinical trial data as was observed in VARSITY. Indirect comparisons using patient-level clinical trial data could be used to inform drug choices for future head-to-head trials and guide positioning of drugs in the absence of head-to-head trials.

The Performance of the Rutgeerts Score, SES-CD, and MM-SES-CD for Prediction of Postoperative Clinical Recurrence in Crohn's Disease.

BACKGROUND: We compared the Simple Endoscopic Score for Crohn's Disease (SES-CD) and Modified Multiplied SES-CD (MM-SES-CD) scores with the Rutgeerts score for predicting clinical recurrence (CR) of postoperative Crohn's disease (CD). METHODS: This post hoc analysis of the prospective, multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial comparing remicade and placebo in the prevention of recurrence in Crohn's disease patients undergoing surgical resection who are at an increased risk of recurrence (PREVENT) study used receiver operating characteristic curve analyses to compare the Rutgeerts, SES-CD, and MM-SES-CD scores at week 76 for subsequent CR by week 104 in 208 participants. Multivariate logistic regression models evaluated cutoffs for the odds of experiencing CR by week 104, after adjustment for confounders. CR was defined as Crohn's Disease Activity Index score ≥200 and ≥70-point increase from baseline (or development of fistulas, abscesses, or treatment failure) and endoscopic recurrence by week 104, defined as Rutgeerts score ≥i2. RESULTS: The week 76 Rutgeerts score predicted CR by week 104 with fair accuracy (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.74; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.65-0.83), which was similar to the SES-CD ileum score (AUC, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.64-0.80) and the MM-SES-CD ileum score (AUC, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.63-0.80). Compared with cutoffs by the other scores, the MM-SES-CD total score ≥26 at week 76 had the highest odds ratio to predict CR by week 104. Patients with a week 76 MM-SES-CD total score ≥26 were 4.41 times (95% CI, 2.06-9.43, P < .001) more likely to have CR by week 104 compared with those with an MM-SES-CD total score <26. CONCLUSIONS: The SES-CD and MM-SES-CD perform similarly to the Rutgeerts score for predicting subsequent CR of postoperative CD. The MM-SES-CD threshold of ≥26 was predictive of postoperative CR. Clinicians and trialists could consider using the SES-CD or MM-SES-CD to assess postoperative CD given their ability to capture colonic disease recurrence and predict CR.

This post hoc analysis of clinical trial data demonstrated that the Simple Endoscopic Score for Crohn's Disease (SES-CD) and Modified Multiplied SES-CD (MM-SES-CD) perform similarly to the Rutgeerts score for predicting subsequent recurrence of postoperative Crohn's disease (CD). Clinicians and trialists could consider using the SES-CD or MM-SES-CD to assess postoperative CD.

Ulcer Size After Induction Therapy Performs Better Than Symptom Assessment for Prediction of One Year Endoscopic Remission in Crohn's Disease: A Post Hoc Analysis.

BACKGROUND: We evaluated whether postinduction ulcer size and patient-reported outcome (PRO) severity are associated with the achievement of 1-year endoscopic remission (ER) in patients with Crohn's disease (CD). METHODS: This post hoc analysis combined data from several clinical trials including 283 patients with baseline ulcers ≥5 mm with repeat endoscopy after ustekinumab or adalimumab induction therapy. Patient-reported outcomes including stool frequency (SF) and abdominal pain (AP) were measured by the Crohn's Disease Activity Index. Thresholds of SF ≥4 and/or AP ≥2 indicated moderately to severely active CD. Endoscopic remission was defined as Simple Endoscopic Score for CD (SES-CD) <3. Multivariate logistic regression models adjusted for confounders (including disease duration and treatment allocation) evaluated the relationships between postinduction ulcer size, PRO symptoms, and achievement of 1-year ER. RESULTS: Among the 131 CD patients who continued to have ulcers ≥5 mm after induction therapy, 48 (36.6%) achieved 1-year ER. Patients with postinduction ulcers ≥5 mm were approximately 5 times less likely to achieve 1-year ER than the 152 individuals who had small or no postinduction ulcers (odds ratio [OR], 0.20; 95% CI, 0.08-0.51, P = .001). In patients with ulcers ≥5 mm after induction, postinduction PRO scores (including PRO2 and PRO3) did not predict 1-year ER. CONCLUSIONS: Crohn's disease patients with ulcers ≥5 mm after induction therapy are less likely to achieve 1-year ER. Postinduction PRO severity does not offer additional prognostic information. This may suggest that objective measures of disease such as endoscopic ulcer size should be considered over symptom assessments for determining clinical response to therapy and utilized in trials for maintenance therapy.

Crohn's disease patients with ulcers ≥5 mm after induction therapy are less likely to achieve 1-year endoscopic remission. Postinduction patient-reported symptom severity does not offer additional prognostic information. Objective measures of disease such as endoscopic ulcer size should be considered over symptom assessments for determining clinical response to therapy.

Predictors of Placebo Induction Response and Remission in Ulcerative Colitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: High placebo response rates in clinical trials of ulcerative colitis (UC) have been reported previously. However, data from patient-level analyses are lacking. We assessed factors associated with clinical and endoscopic placebo response among placebo-treated patients in clinical trials of UC. METHODS: We performed a post hoc analysis of pooled clinical trial data from GEMINI-1, ACT-1, ACT-2, PURSUIT, ULTRA-2, OCTAVE-1, and OCTAVE-2. Predictors were assessed in placebo-treated patients for their association with end of induction (week 6 of 8) clinical response (reduction in total Mayo score of ≥3 and ≥30% from baseline with ≥1 point decrease in rectal bleeding subscore [RBS] or absolute RBS ≤1); clinical remission (total Mayo score ≤2 and no subscore >1); endoscopic healing (Mayo endoscopic subscore ≤1); partial Mayo score of 0; patient-reported outcome 2-item remission (RBS of 0 and stool frequency ≤1), resolution of rectal bleeding, and stool frequency normalization. Predictors on univariate analyses with P < .05 were included in multivariate logistic regression models. RESULTS: Placebo-treated patients with normal serum C-reactive protein and albumin levels were more likely to attain clinical response (71 of 437 [16.3%] vs 49 of 660 [7.4%]; adjusted odds ratio, 2.76; 95% confidence interval, 1.19-5.41; P = .018). Compared with patients with a Mayo endoscopic score of 2, patients with a Mayo endoscopic score of 3 were less likely to attain clinical response (105 of 556 [18.8%] vs 179 of 675 [25.9%]; adjusted odds ratio, 0.33; 95% confidence interval, 0.16-0.68; P = .003). Similar findings were observed for clinical remission and resolution of rectal bleeding. CONCLUSIONS: Biomarkers such as normal serum C-reactive protein and albumin and baseline endoscopic severity were found to affect placebo response rates in clinical trials of UC. These findings have implications for clinical trial design in UC.

Associations of Antibiotics, Hormonal Therapies, Oral Contraceptives, and Long-Term NSAIDS With Inflammatory Bowel Disease: Results From the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Several medications have been suspected to contribute to the etiology of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). This study assessed the association between medication use and the risk of developing IBD using the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology cohort. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study of 133,137 individuals between the ages of 20 and 80 from 24 countries. Country-specific validated questionnaires documented baseline and follow-up medication use. Participants were followed up prospectively at least every 3 years. The main outcome was the development of IBD, including Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC). Short-term (baseline but not follow-up use) and long-term use (baseline and subsequent follow-up use) were evaluated. Results are presented as adjusted odds ratios (aORs) with 95% CIs. RESULTS: During a median follow-up period of 11.0 years (interquartile range, 9.2-12.2 y), there were 571 incident IBD cases (143 CD and 428 UC). Incident IBD was associated significantly with baseline antibiotic (aOR, 2.81; 95% CI, 1.67-4.73; P = .0001) and hormonal medication use (aOR, 4.43; 95% CI, 1.78-11.01; P = .001). Among females, previous or current oral contraceptive use also was associated with IBD development (aOR, 2.17; 95% CI, 1.70-2.77; P < .001). Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug users also were observed to have increased odds of IBD (aOR, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.23-2.64; P = .002), which was driven by long-term use (aOR, 5.58; 95% CI, 2.26-13.80; P < .001). All significant results were consistent in direction for CD and UC with low heterogeneity. CONCLUSIONS: Antibiotics, hormonal medications, oral contraceptives, and long-term nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug use were associated with increased odds of incident IBD after adjustment for covariates.

Predictors of Clinical Remission to Placebo in Clinical Trials of Crohn's Disease.

BACKGROUND: In placebo-controlled clinical trials for Crohn's disease (CD), some placebo-treated patients demonstrate improvement. However, it is unclear what factors contribute to placebo response and remission. METHODS: This was a post hoc analysis of 3 placebo-controlled clinical trial programs (GEMINI-2, UNITI-1/2, and CLASSIC-1) of moderate-severe CD evaluating the efficacy of vedolizumab, ustekinumab, and adalimumab. Baseline predictors of clinical remission at the end of induction (week 4/6), defined as Crohn's Disease Activity Index <150 were evaluated among placebo-treated patients. Clinical response (decrease in Crohn's Disease Activity Index ≥100 points from baseline) at the end of induction was also evaluated. Univariate analyses were performed and predictors with P < .10 were included in multivariable analyses. RESULTS: A total of 683 patients (148 from GEMINI-2, 470 from UNITI-1/2, and 65 from CLASSIC-1) treated with placebo were included. Of the predictors evaluated, C-reactive protein <5 mg/L (odds ratio [OR], 1.66; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04-2.67; P = .035), albumin >40 g/L (OR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.05-2.93; P = .023), and disease duration <5 years (OR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.05-2.75; P = .032) were included in the multivariable model for clinical remission. Disease duration <5 years was the only variable that retained significance on multivariable analysis (adjusted OR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.02-2.73; P = .040). For clinical response, isolated ileal disease and disease duration <1 year were included in the multivariable model, of which only the latter retained significance (adjusted OR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.04-3.24; P = .035). CONCLUSIONS: Strategies that reduce placebo response rates in clinical trials of CD should be considered, including stratification or exclusion of subjects by disease duration and mild disease severity as measured by objective biomarkers.

Disease duration <5 years was independently associated with clinical remission at the end of induction. To reduce the placebo response rates in clinical trials, consideration should be given to stratification or exclusion of subjects by disease duration and mild disease severity as measured by objective biomarkers.

Baseline Patient-reported Symptoms Less Predictive Than MM-SES-CD for Endoscopic Remission in Crohn's Disease.

BACKGROUND: This analysis evaluates the association between baseline patient-reported symptom (PRS) severity in Crohn's disease (CD), including abdominal pain, stool frequency, general well-being, and achievement of clinical and endoscopic outcomes. We compared baseline PRS to baseline endoscopic scores for the prediction of endoscopic remission (ER). METHODS: This post hoc analysis of 2 clinical trials of infliximab in CD included 601 patients and evaluated baseline PRS variables (abdominal pain, stool frequency, and general well-being) as measured by the Crohn's disease activity index and their association with 6-month clinical remission (CR) (Crohn's Disease Activity Index<150), corticosteroid-free CR, and week 26/54 ER (absence of mucosal ulceration). Logistic regression models assessed the relationships between PRS and outcomes of interest. Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses compared the sensitivity and specificity of the different baseline PRS compared with baseline endoscopic scores for achievement of ER at weeks 26 and 54. RESULTS: No difference was found comparing patients with higher baseline PRS to those with lower PRS in achieving 6-month CR, 6-month corticosteroid-free CR, or week 26/54 ER. Modified multiplier of the SES-CD (MM-SES-CD) at baseline demonstrated a significant ability to predict week 54 ER (area under the curve, 0.71; 95% CI 0.65-0.78; P =0.017). CONCLUSIONS: Baseline PRS in CD is not prognostic of clinical or endoscopic response. In contrast, active endoscopic disease as measured by the MM-SES-CD, more accurately predicts endoscopic outcomes. Endoscopic scores such as the MM-SES-CD may be considered for selection criteria and as a primary outcome of interest in CD trials, with PRS as a co-primary or secondary endpoint.

Long-Term Outcomes of Early vs Delayed Responders to Vedolizumab and Adalimumab: A Post Hoc Analysis of the VARSITY Study.

INTRODUCTION: It is uncertain whether patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) and delayed symptomatic response to therapy have as robust and durable a response as earlier responders to therapy. We compared clinical outcomes of early and delayed responders to vedolizumab and adalimumab for patients with moderate-severe UC. METHODS: This was a post hoc analysis of the VARSITY study. Patients with early partial Mayo score (PMS) remission (PMS ≤1 at week 4/6 of therapy) were compared with those with delayed PMS remission (PMS ≤1 at week 14 and not week 4/6). Differences in proportions of patients achieving week 52 clinical remission (CR) (PMS = 0), endoscopic improvement (EI) (Mayo endoscopic subscore ≤1), and histoendoscopic mucosal improvement (HEMI) (Mayo endoscopic subscore ≤1 and Geboes score highest grade <3.2) were assessed. Confounders were adjusted for using multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: A total of 147 vedolizumab-treated and 110 adalimumab-treated patients attained early or late PMS remission. Those who attained early PMS remission with vedolizumab were more likely to attain week 52 CR than participants with delayed PMS remission with vedolizumab (69.1% [67/97] vs 50.0% [25/50], aOR 2.43 [95% CI 1.11-5.33], P = 0.027). Week 52 HEMI was more likely among early vedolizumab PMS remitters (63.9% [62/97] vs 40.0% [20/50], aOR 2.60 [95% CI 1.20-5.62], P = 0.015). Week 52 EI was similar between early and delayed PMS remitters to vedolizumab. No differences were observed in week 52 CR, EI, or HEMI between early and delayed PMS remitters to adalimumab. DISCUSSION: Patients with UC who achieve early PMS remission with vedolizumab have greater odds of week 52 remission compared with delayed responders.